Page 277 – The Times Of Central Asia

15 May 2025

Central Asia, Kazakhstan, Business & Economy, Kazakhstan Business & Economy

Kazakhstan to Expand Geological Exploration Area by One-Third by 2026

May 15, 2025
By Dmitry Pokidaev

Kazakhstan plans to increase its geological exploration area by one-third by early 2026, according to Margulan Baibatyrov, Deputy Chairman of the Geology Committee under the Ministry of Industry and Construction. Baibatyrov made the announcement during an international mining congress.

President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev previously highlighted this initiative at the October 2024 meeting of the Foreign Investors Council, noting that geological exploration currently covers approximately 1.6 million square kilometers. He instructed that this figure be expanded to 2.2 million square kilometers.

“By 2026, we plan to increase the area of geological exploration by 680,000 square kilometers,” Baibatyrov confirmed.

Investment and Resource Development

Over the past five years, the mining industry in Kazakhstan has attracted around $1 billion in private investment. Of this, KZT 41 billion ($80.3 million) has come from major international companies specifically for geological exploration.

Since 2018, Kazakhstan has issued 2,906 exploration licenses and 111 production licenses. The country’s mineral resource base includes more than 980 solid mineral deposits. Exploration activities are ongoing at 12 sites, with notable recent discoveries such as the Kuyrektykol deposit, which contains approximately 800,000 tons of rare earth metals.

Sector Challenges

Despite these advancements, Baibatyrov noted several persistent challenges in the geological exploration sector, including:

A shortage of qualified scientific personnel;
Low levels of natural resource replenishment;
Insufficient public funding for geological studies.

Upcoming Auctions

As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, Kazakhstan plans to auction exploration and development rights for 50 gold and rare metal deposits in June 2025. This move aims to attract further investment and strengthen the country’s mineral resource base.

15 May 2025

Central Asia, Kazakhstan, Business & Economy, Kazakhstan Business & Economy

EBRD Downgrades Kazakhstan’s 2025 GDP Forecast

May 15, 2025
By Dmitry Pokidaev

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has revised its 2025 GDP growth forecast for Kazakhstan downward, from 5.2% to 4.9%. The adjustment was published in the bank’s May regional economic outlook.

According to the EBRD, the downward revision is largely due to Kazakhstan’s GDP growth in the first quarter being driven primarily by higher oil output at the Tengiz field. While this expansion has supported short-term growth, the bank questions the sustainability of oil production as a long-term driver, particularly under current OPEC+ production limits.

Oil Output and Constraints

Tengizchevroil (TCO), the operator of the country’s largest oil field, increased daily production at Tengiz to a record 870,000 barrels in January 2025, up 45% from the 2024 average. Output climbed further to 950,000 barrels in March, before dipping slightly to an average of 884,000 barrels per day in early April. Industry projections suggest production may eventually reach one million barrels per day. However, the EBRD cautions that such gains may be constrained by Kazakhstan’s obligations under the OPEC+ agreement.

In addition to concerns about oil production, the bank notes the risk of declining demand for Kazakh oil and metals, key exports, especially from China, one of Kazakhstan’s main trading partners.

Inflation and Domestic Demand

Rising inflation presents another significant challenge. Consumer prices rose 8.9% in January, 9.4% in February, and hit 10% in March, the highest level since November 2023. In April, inflation climbed further to 10.7%, raising concerns about the erosion of domestic purchasing power.

Broader Economic Indicators

Despite the EBRD’s revised forecast, the Ministry of National Economy reported on May 12 that Kazakhstan’s GDP grew by 6% in the first four months of 2025. For the January-March period, growth was recorded at 5.8%, supported by a range of sectors: transport (22.4%), trade (7%), agriculture (3.9%), and communications (2.6%).

Growth in the transport sector was driven by an increase in freight volumes via rail and pipeline, accounting for 20.5% and 19.6% of sectoral output, respectively. Wholesale trade expanded by 7.4%, and retail trade by 6.1%.

Outlook

As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, several analysts view ongoing volatility in global markets as indicative of a looming “perfect storm” for Kazakhstan’s economy. This sentiment is echoed in the EBRD’s cautious outlook, highlighting a convergence of external and internal pressures on the country’s economic stability.

15 May 2025

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The Abu Dhabi-Kazakhstan Connection

May 16, 2025
By Bruce Pannier

Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan led a delegation of officials and businessmen from the United Arab Emirates on a visit to Kazakhstan to attend the Kazakhstan-UAE Business Forum on May 12. During the visit, Kazakhstan and the UAE signed deals worth some $5 billion and not surprisingly, three of the nine agreements were with Abu Dhabi Ports Group.

Building a new trade route to the south

Abu Dhabi Ports Group (AD Ports Group) has been leading the way in connecting Kazakhstan to the Middle East, and in turn, the UAE company is looking to take advantage of Kazakhstan’s key position along the Middle Corridor trade route.

In early August 2023, Davud Tafti, the head of AD Ports Group subsidiary Simatech Shipping & Forwarding, met with Kazakhstan’s Minister of Trade Serik Zhumangarin to discuss the shortest direct route for shipping “Kazakh export cargo the markets of the Persian Gulf, the Middle East, Pakistan, India and the coast of East Africa.”

The route goes from Kazakhstan’s Caspian port of Kuryk to the Iranian Caspian port at Amirabad. From there goods are shipped to the Iranian Persian Gulf port at Bandar Abbas and loaded onto ships heading to UAE ports at Khalifa and Fujairah.

The total time from Kuryk to Bandar Abbas is three days.

By the time Tafti and Zhumangarin met, AD Ports Group had already purchased four ships with a capacity of 7.500 tons each for transportation of bulk, container, and general cargo along Caspian Sea routes. Tafti said there were plans to buy ten more similar vessels with Amirabad being used as their home port.

Simatech Shipping & Forwarding also bought two barges, each capable of transporting 350 trucks, with plans to purchase 1,000 trucks for shipping goods between Amirabad and Bandar Abbas.

AD Ports Group signed a strategic partnership agreement with state oil and gas company KazMunaiGas (KMG) in January 2023 aimed at developing Kazakhstan’s tanker fleet in the Caspian and Black seas. The parties formed a joint venture called Caspian Integrated Maritime Solutions (CIMS).

CIMS announced in December 2023 that working with KMG subsidiary KazMorTransFlot, Kazakhstan’s national shipping company, it had acquired two oil tankers for use in the Caspian Sea.

AD Ports Group reached an agreement in January 2024 to construct a facility on Kazakhstan’s Caspian coast for building and repairing ships. Work started in early 2025 on two container vessels, each with the capacity to carry more than 500 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU) and built especially for use on the Caspian Sea.

AD Ports Group also formed a joint venture with state railway company Kazakhstan Temir Zholy in December 2023 with the aim of improving logistics operations for transferring goods using rail and maritime routes.

At the moment, the CIMS route is by far the fastest way for Kazakhstan to trade with the Middle East.

In May 2025, Kazakhstan Temir Zholy sent the first shipment of wheat via Turkmenistan and Iran to Bandar Abbas, and from there by sea to UAE port at Jebel Ali. The estimated average shipping time is 18 days.

Expansion continues

Under new agreements signed at the Kazakhstan-UAE Business Forum, CIMS will purchase four container ships, each capable of transporting 780 TEUs, for Caspian transport, and up to four of the large Aframax oil tankers for Kazakhstan’s Black Sea fleet.

One of the agreements signed at the forum was for the construction and development of the Sarzha multi-purpose terminal at the Kuryk port. Representatives from AD Ports Group and Kazakhstan’s Semurg Invest discussed plans for the new terminal, which will be able to handle “general cargo, containers, and dry bulk cargoes.”

Kazakh Invest, the Chamber of International Commerce of Kazakhstan, and the Special Economic Zone Morport Aktau also signed Memorandums of Understanding with AD Ports Group on promoting and developing trade between Kazakhstan and the UAE.

Another of the agreements at the business forum was for cooperation between the Free Economic Zones at Kuryk, and the Khalifa Economic zones in Abu Dhabi.

A Successful Two Years

Since 2023, AD Ports Group said it has invested $175 million into its projects in Kazakhstan, and helped Kazakhstan to export more than one million tons of crude oil across the Caspian Sea, and more than six million tons across the Black Sea. The UAE company said it plans to invest an additional $600 million in projects in Kazakhstan.

Managing Director and Group CEO of AD Ports Group Mohamed Juma Al Shamisi said his company sees Kazakhstan as “a major Central Asian trade hub” and a key part of AD Ports Group’s “long-term strategy to develop the ‘Middle Corridor”’ land passage from China to Europe.”

AD Ports Group’s relationship with Kazakhstan has proven extremely beneficial to both parties in a short space of time.

As part of the UAE’s efforts to expand its trade network, strengthening infrastructure ties linking to Kazakhstan opens up huge possibilities for the Gulf State to be part of the Middle Corridor trade route. Al Shamisi called the Middle Corridor “the shortest… way to transport goods from China to Europe,” and added that his company’s “investments reflect Kazakhstan’s growing role as an emerging export leader.”

With AD Ports Group’s help, Kazakhstan finally has a reliable and expanding trade route south, plus investment and experience from a leading company in port infrastructure and connectivity.

15 May 2025

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Opinion: The Ukraine-Russia Peace Talks Need Multiple Platforms for Negotiations

May 15, 2025
By Times of Central Asia

The proposed Istanbul meeting between Zelensky and Putin on May 15 did not take place, with no Russian ministers attending the talks Putin himself had called for, leading Zelensky to describe the Russian delegation as “phony“. Hopes for peace remain, however, as other stakeholders have expressed their eagerness to support a resolution.

With its unique geopolitical position as a bridge between Europe and Asia, Turkey was an obvious choice to host the negotiations. While Turkey has sought to maintain balanced relations throughout the conflict, its provision of military support to Ukraine, including drones, has complicated its image as a neutral party. Despite this, as a NATO member with significant energy partnerships with Russia, Turkey serves as a crucial intermediary. Furthermore, its active role in initiatives like the Black Sea Grain Agreement has reinforced its credibility in international diplomacy. Turkey’s continued involvement, therefore, benefits not only the peace process but also its own economic and strategic interests.

Turkey is not the only stakeholder on the periphery of Russia, however; Kazakhstan is also well-positioned to contribute to the peace negotiations. Kazakhstan’s shared history with Russia and Ukraine as former Soviet republics has shaped mutual economic and security frameworks, rooted in decades of centralized governance and cooperation. The continued use of the Russian language as one medium of communication across these nations underscores intertwined cultural and historical links. Kazakhstan’s relationship with Russia spans centuries, marked by alliances, trade, and cultural exchange, further deepening ties beyond the Soviet era.

In recent years, Kazakhstan has diversified its alliances through its multi-vector foreign policy. It has forged strong relationships with China, the U.S., the EU, and organizations like the SCO and EAEU while cultivating robust economic ties. Its energy sector has attracted major foreign investors such as Chevron, ExxonMobil, and Shell. By hosting peace talks and global summits, Kazakhstan has established itself as a neutral mediator, balancing traditional ties with Russia while expanding its global influence.

Kazakhstan also has an impressive record in terms of peace negotiations. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev hosted pivotal talks in Almaty in 2024 between Armenia and Azerbaijan, addressing over three decades of conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh. Kazakhstan also played a key role in facilitating the 2018 agreement on the Caspian Sea’s legal status, which resolved disputes over resources and territorial boundaries. The country hosted multiple rounds of Syrian peace talks starting in Astana in 2017, bringing together the Syrian government, opposition groups, and international stakeholders, including Russia and Turkey. Similarly, it provided a platform for the Iran nuclear talks in 2013 and supported the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. Kazakhstan’s neutrality and commitment to diplomacy have earned it credibility as a Middle Power in fostering agreements on contentious issues.

Additionally, Kazakhstan hosted the 2010 OSCE Summit that led to the adoption of the Astana Declaration. This reaffirmed the Helsinki Principles on peace, security, and cooperation from Vancouver to Vladivostok. It represented a critical collective commitment to territorial integrity, sovereignty, and human rights since the dissolution of the USSR. The summit underscored Kazakhstan’s role in addressing Cold War legacies while promoting lasting geopolitical cooperation.

Under President Tokayev, Kazakhstan’s foreign policy has adhered to the principles of the UN Charter, including respecting sovereignty, territorial integrity, and peaceful dispute resolution. Its multi-vector strategy seeks to balance relationships with global powers while upholding international law, asserting the nation’s role as a stabilizing force in an increasingly volatile world.

Kazakhstan’s neutrality has faced challenges during the Ukraine-Russia conflict. By refusing to recognize separatist regions in Ukraine, Kazakhstan affirmed its opposition to unilateral border changes through force. Simultaneously, it engaged with both Kyiv and Moscow, ensuring open channels of communication to mitigate tensions. By offering its capital, Astana, as a neutral venue for diplomatic talks, Kazakhstan has continually emphasized the importance of diplomacy and mutual respect in resolving conflicts.

Kazakhstan’s multi-vector foreign policy positions it as a key player in complex global challenges. While navigating a polarized international environment remains daunting, its balanced approach and adherence to UN principles strengthen its credibility as a mediator in the Ukraine-Russia crisis. Through multifaceted diplomacy, Kazakhstan exemplifies how middle powers can contribute constructively to global peace and security in a multipolar world.

15 May 2025

Home, Tajikistan Justice, Justice, Tajikistan, Tajikistan Features, Features

UN Official Urges Tajikistan to Release, Retry Woman Convicted of Treason

May 16, 2025
By Times of Central Asia

A United Nations human rights expert has joined in calls for the release and retrial of a 31-year-old mother in Tajikistan who was convicted of treason and sentenced to eight years in prison after her research on Chinese aid to the Central Asian country allegedly aroused the suspicion of authorities.

A U.N. statement described Rukhshona Khakimova as a “journalist and woman human rights defender” and said it appeared that she had not received a fair trial and may have been targeted for “legitimate human rights journalism” rather than any wrongdoing.

“The case was part of a broader criminal investigation involving former senior officials and politicians allegedly accused of extremism, espionage, and an attempted coup,” said the U.N. announcement, which was released on Wednesday. “Her charges allegedly stemmed from interviews she conducted for a research project on international aid from China to Tajikistan, where she reportedly spoke with two defendants, asking general questions not related to classified information.”

In recent years, China has developed an increasingly robust role as an investor and security partner for Tajikistan, which has a long border with Afghanistan and concerns about militant infiltration.

Mary Lawlor, the U.N.’s special rapporteur on the situation of human rights defenders, said it was “heartbreaking” that Khakimova had been separated from her two young children because the court sent her to jail. Lawlor said Khakimova had a right to a fair and transparent trial and that she was in contact with the Tajik government about the matter.

Tajikistan’s Supreme Court convicted and sentenced Khakimova on Feb. 5. The verdict was upheld on April 2.

International human rights and media groups have also called for Khakimova’s release.

So far, Tajik authorities have not responded publicly to the appeals, which reflect concern about a deteriorating human rights situation in Tajikistan.

However, President Emomali Rahmon removed one restriction on Wednesday, signing a law that “abolishes criminal liability for posting likes or other marks on social networks,” according to the president’s office. The restriction had previously been used to prosecute people accused of endorsing extremist posts on social media, though critics alleged the ban was a way to muzzle opposition to the government.

15 May 2025

Home, Tajikistan Justice, Justice, Tajikistan, Tajikistan Features

Tajikistan Lifts Criminal Penalties for Social Media Likes on ‘Extremist’ Content

May 15, 2025
By Sadokat Jalolova

Tajik President Emomali Rahmon has signed a new law eliminating criminal penalties for liking or reacting to social media posts classified as extremist or threatening to public order. The president’s press office announced the amendment, which revokes part of a 2018 change to the Criminal Code.

Previously, individuals could face prison sentences of 10 to 15 years for openly promoting or supporting purported terrorism or terrorist acts online. Under this legislation, more than 1,500 people have been convicted in Tajikistan, many for merely liking or commenting on posts the government deemed extremist. A significant number of those affected were believed to be affiliated with opposition groups.

It remains unclear whether the new law will result in the release of individuals already imprisoned under the previous statute. However, lawyer Dilshod Jurayev told Radio Ozodi that those convicted may now have grounds to appeal their sentences.

Regional Context

In neighboring Uzbekistan, social media users still face the possibility of legal consequences for engaging with prohibited content if investigators or courts determine that liking such material constitutes distribution. Uzbekistan’s Agency for Information and Mass Communications (AIMC) has cautioned the public against spreading false information. The agency emphasized that engaging with posts containing fake news, disinformation, or extremist content could result in administrative or criminal penalties.

“There is administrative and criminal liability for spreading false or harmful information,” the AIMC stated. “Before you share anything, make sure it comes from a trusted, official source.”