With only weeks remaining before Kazakhstan elects its new 145-member Kurultai on August 23, three national surveys point to a commanding victory for Adilet and place Auyl in second. The less certain question is whether Ak Zhol, Respublica, or another smaller party can clear the 5% electoral threshold and join them in the new legislature.
Seven political parties have been registered to contest the vote. All 145 seats will be allocated through nationwide party lists, so small changes around the threshold could have a large effect on the composition of Kazakhstan’s first Kurultai.
The election is the first under Kazakhstan’s new constitutional framework, which replaced the former bicameral parliament with a single-chamber Kurultai. The constitutional reform represents the most significant redesign of the country’s political institutions in decades and places greater weight on political parties in the legislative process.
The available polls differ in timing, method, sample size, and the proportion of undecided voters. Their exact figures are therefore not directly comparable. However, they agree on the broad shape of the race: Adilet leads by a wide margin, Auyl holds second place, and several parties remain close to or below the threshold.
The latest Institute of Eurasian Integration survey was conducted through face-to-face interviews with 4,000 respondents in all 17 regions, as well as Astana, Almaty, and Shymkent, from July 16 to 26. Its stated margin of error was no more than 1.54%.
That poll put Adilet on 65.1% and Auyl on 5.9%. Ak Zhol stood at 4.7%, marginally ahead of Respublica on 4.6%. The Nationwide Social Democratic Party, or NSDP, received 4.2%, the People’s Party of Kazakhstan 4.1%, and the Baytaq Green Party 0.5%.
An earlier DATAmetrics poll, commissioned by the Kazakhstan Institute for Strategic Studies, interviewed 8,000 people face-to-face from June 13 to July 2. It gave Adilet 54.2%, Auyl 7.3%, Ak Zhol 4.6%, and Respublica 3.4%. One in five respondents had not chosen a party.
A telephone survey by the Kazakhstan Institute of Public Development covered 1,200 respondents from July 8 to 20. It put Adilet on 64.8%, Auyl on 5.4%, Respublica on 4.8%, and Ak Zhol on 4.7%, with 10.9% undecided.
Taken together, the surveys do not identify a clear third-place party. They do show that Ak Zhol and Respublica are the most consistent contenders for an additional place in the Kurultai. The latest Institute of Eurasian Integration poll also places the NSDP and the People’s Party within striking distance, although the other surveys put both further behind.
Adilet’s lead is unsurprising. Although the Adilet Party was officially registered only this year, it is not starting from scratch. Amanat, formerly known as Nur Otan, merged into Adilet in June, transferring the organization and political network that dominated Kazakhstan throughout most of former President Nursultan Nazarbayev’s rule.
The merger also placed the former ruling party inside a new organization led by allies of President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev. It completed a change of political branding while preserving a strong pro-presidential electoral machine.
The sharper contest is therefore not for first or second place. The Auyl Party ranks second in all three national surveys, reflecting its established rural and agricultural base. The open question is which parties, if any, will join Adilet and Auyl by crossing 5%.
Across the three surveys, Ak Zhol polls between 4.6% and 4.7%, while Respublica ranges from 3.4% to 4.8%. Neither has established a decisive lead, and both remain vulnerable to turnout and late movement among undecided voters.
The Institute of Eurasian Integration’s two polling waves offer one measure of movement. Its first survey, conducted from July 3 to 13, put Respublica on 4.5% and Ak Zhol on 4.1%. In the later poll, Respublica edged up to 4.6%, while Ak Zhol rose to 4.7% and moved narrowly ahead.
Polling alone therefore provides little evidence of a Respublica surge. The campaign, however, offers a separate reason to watch the party.
During the first nationally televised debate, Respublica focused on entrepreneurship, taxation, and the concerns of small and medium-sized businesses rather than trying to compete across the entire political spectrum.
Writing on Telegram, political analyst Gaziz Abishev said Respublica representative Yekaterina Smolyakova gave one of the strongest performances of the debate. He pointed to her fluent Kazakh, which remains rare among ethnic Russians in Kazakhstan, and the party’s disciplined messaging to a clearly defined electorate rather than a broad protest vote.
That strategy reflects Respublica’s political positioning. Founded after the reforms launched in the wake of the January 2022 unrest, the party has sought to represent entrepreneurs and the urban middle class. Unlike many older political organizations, it carries little institutional legacy from the Nazarbayev era. Despite the similarity in name, the party has no known organizational connection to the former opposition newspaper Respublika.
Its principal rival for that electorate remains Ak Zhol. Established in 2002 during one of the first major political crises of independent Kazakhstan, Ak Zhol initially presented itself as a moderate liberal alternative. It later became an established parliamentary force while retaining its emphasis on pro-market reform and private enterprise.
Ak Zhol’s experience, organization, and name recognition give it advantages, while Respublica offers a newer political brand and a more concentrated appeal to younger urban and business-oriented voters. Their contest could determine whether the first Kurultai includes only long-established political forces or also gives a place to one of Kazakhstan’s newest parties.
The position of the other established parties is less clear than the latest poll alone suggests. The Institute of Eurasian Integration places the NSDP on 4.2% and the People’s Party of Kazakhstan on 4.1%. The telephone poll put them on 3.3% and 3.1%, while DATAmetrics recorded 2.4% and 2.1%.
Both parties therefore need a late increase, but neither can be ruled out solely on the latest figures. The gaps between parties around the threshold are small enough that turnout and campaign organization may prove more important than their current ranking.
The NSDP was established in 2006 after the presidential campaign of former Mazhilis Speaker Zharmakhan Tuyakbay. It has long positioned itself as Kazakhstan’s main social democratic force and remains the country’s only party listed as a member of the Socialist International.
The People’s Party traces its origins to a split in Kazakhstan’s communist movement in 2004. Founded as the Communist People’s Party of Kazakhstan, it entered parliament in 2012 and later changed its name and leadership as it sought a broader electoral identity.
The outlook is consistently weaker for the Baytaq Green Party. It received between 0.5% and 1.1% across the three surveys. That suggests growing public concern about pollution, water, and other environmental issues has not yet translated into substantial support for a green party.
A two-party Kurultai remains a plausible outcome. Using the latest Institute of Eurasian Integration poll and assuming every other party stays below 5%, Abishev estimates that Adilet would take approximately 133 seats and Auyl the remaining 12. That is a scenario based on one poll, not a firm forecast.
A small movement could produce a different chamber. Ak Zhol crossing the threshold would preserve a parliamentary voice for an established pro-business party. A Respublica breakthrough would bring in a newer urban and entrepreneurial constituency. If both cross the 5% threshold, the first Kurultai could include four parties.
The evidence therefore supports a live threshold contest. Adilet has established a commanding lead, Auyl appears secure in second place, and Ak Zhol and Respublica have the clearest routes to additional representation. The NSDP and People’s Party remain possible late challengers, particularly in the newest survey.
Turnout, undecided voters, and regional campaign strength will decide whether the new electoral framework produces a broader legislature or another overwhelmingly dominant pro-presidential chamber. The August 23 vote will provide the first practical indication of how Kazakhstan’s redesigned party-list system operates.
