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Central Asia’s Increasing Profile in Global Climate Policy

Between 11 and 22 November, the 29th Conference of the Parties (COP29) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) will take place in Baku, Azerbaijan. In the run-up to this global event, Central Asian countries have been continuing their integration into the cooperative implementation of the global energy and environmental agenda. Such measures include, but are not limited to, commitments to reducing methane emissions, contributions to green supply chains, and — for Kazakhstan in particular — its nuclear policy based on multi-vector diplomacy. One may anticipate their especially enhanced presence in view of the fact that several them have strategic-partner relations with Azerbaijan, which is cooperating with them also in the implementation of the Trans-Caspian International Trade Corridor (TITR or "Middle Corridor"). The Central Asian states are using their implementation of global energy and environmental priorities as an instrument to integrate further into the international system. Following their participation at COP28 (30 November – 23 December 2023, in Dubai, United Arab Emirates), all five of them signed the Global Methane Pledge to reduce methane emissions by at least 30% by 2030. They have also stepped up their contributions to green supply chains, signalling their ambitions to become more important players in global geoeconomics. At the same time, these initiatives also seek to promote domestic economic diversification. Kazakhstan, in particular, continues to play a central role with its multi-vector approach, notably in the nuclear energy sector, positioning itself at the intersection of sustainability and global energy security. Kazakhstan holds 12% of global uranium reserves. It became the world’s leading producer in 2009 and in 2022 accounted for 43% of global production. In Central Asia, Uzbekistan has a Rosatom-sponsored NPP project under way, as does Kyrgyzstan. Along with Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan in particular actively engaged in discussions on climate policy at COP28, acknowledging the need to balance their resource-rich economies with global sustainability goals. One of the key outcomes was the region's collective involvement in the Global Methane Pledge. Global environmental policy bodies have assessed that methane emissions are a significant concern for global climate policy. The effect of this assessment will be to load still greater financial burdens on oil and gas companies by making development of hydrocarbon deposits, and the transmission of hydrocarbon resources to market, more expensive. Kazakhstan’s commitment to cutting methane emissions by 30% by 2030 exemplifies this shift, signalling a readiness to reform domestic industries in line with global climate targets. Turkmenistan has the highest methane emissions intensity in the region, but challenges remain in terms of monitoring and implementation. Uzbekistan’s leadership was also highlighted at COP28. The country’s ambitious plans to scale up solar and wind energy by 2030 align with broader regional goals of reducing dependence on hydrocarbons. This is Tashkent's (and the region's) way of enhancing their profile as "good global citizens" as policy decisions by political bodies at the international level increasingly emphasize decarbonization. Uzbekistan has made strides in "green supply chains" by focusing on the renewable energy sector...

New Report From World Bank Condemns Tashkent Air Quality

A new World Bank report entitled "Air Quality Assessment for Tashkent and the Roadmap for Air Quality Management Improvement in Uzbekistan" gives a frightening assessment of the air quality in the country’s capital. The report finds that ambient PM2.5 concentrations in Tashkent, which peak in winter, substantially exceed international air quality standards. The annual average concentration exceeds six times the WHO’s average yearly guideline of 5 µg/m3. In Tashkent, PM2.5 ambient air pollution has considerable health and economic costs. It can be linked to health costs equivalent to 0.7% of Uzbekistan’s gross domestic product (GDP). Most air quality-related diseases and premature deaths in Uzbekistan and worldwide are linked to PM2.5, which the World Health Organization (WHO) has identified as the pollutant with the gravest health risk. According to IQAir, Tashkent, like other Central Asian cities, frequently ranks among the world's most polluted urban areas. According to the report, the primary sources of human-caused PM2.5 pollution in Tashkent are the heating (28%), transport (16%), and industrial sectors (13%). Cross-boundary sources like windblown dust (36% PM2.5 pollution) dominate in the summer, while commercial and residential heating is the primary source of PM2.5 pollution in the winter. The report’s AQM roadmap for Uzbekistan formulates priority actions such as updating air quality standards and legislation, developing a national AQM strategy and coordination mechanism, and taking measures in the industrial, transport, and heating sectors, which are most responsible for air pollution. The AQM roadmap recommends investments in emission reduction measures. The roadmap suggests that emissions from the heating sector can be reduced by improving the quality of fuels used and the efficiency of heating appliances, implementing energy efficiency measures, and switching to cleaner heating alternatives. At a government meeting on October 9, Uzbekistan’s President Shavkat Mirziyoyev reviewed a draft master plan for the city of Tashkent until 2045. Today the population of Tashkent is more than 3 million people, and it keeps growing. Over the past ten years, the average air temperature in Tashkent has increased by 1 degree Celsius. The number of cars is rising, and traffic is becoming increasingly congested. The new master plan takes these aspects into account. It plans to increase green areas in Tashkent and its suburbs threefold to 25,000 hectares, which will increase per capita green area from the current 3 to 6 square meters. Mirziyoyev emphasized the need to turn Tashkent into a city where at least 7.5 million people can live and work.

Water Supply Plan to the Aral Sea is Almost 100% Complete

This year, the Aral Sea received 977 million cubic meters of water, which allowed it to fulfill the water supply plan by almost 100% during the irrigation period. This is the first time in the last five years it has got close to 100%. Deputy Head of Aral-Syrdarya Basin Inspection Zeinollah Kaztoganov noted that this year, the volume of water flowing into the Northern Aral increased to 60-70 cubic meters per second, ten times more than in previous years when the figure was 7-10 cubic meters per second. Now, the total volume of water in the Northern Aral is about 22 billion cubic meters. Additionally, more than 45 million cubic meters of water were directed to Akshatau, Sorgak, and Kamystybas lakes, which positively impacted fishing and tourism: water salinity decreased, and fish populations increased. If the catches of local fishermen earlier were only 400 tons a year, this year they reached over 7,500 tons. Kuntugan Turganbayev, a 76-year-old fisherman from the village of Karateren who has been fishing all his life, said that with the inflow of water into the Aral Sea, there is a prospect for the development of fisheries. He noted that this year, there are more fish than last year, and if the current water level in the Aral Sea is maintained, the fishery will continue to grow. Meanwhile, Uzbekistan's Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation and the World Bank are developing the second phase of a program to conserve the Northern Aral Sea. This program is aimed at improving water supply, construction, and modernization of water infrastructure. The main objective is to support sustainable water use, which includes the development of agriculture, tourism, and fisheries in the region. The project also provides for the establishment of an automated water management system, which will help control water flows effectively and ensure stable water levels in the Northern Aral Sea.

Uzbekistan Plans to Increase Share of Green Energy to 40% by 2030

Uzbekistan intends to increase the share of renewable energy sources in the country’s energy consumption structure to 40% by 2030. Energy Minister Zhurabek Mirzamakhmudov announced this at the “Russian Energy Week" forum. According to Mirzamakhmudov, renewable energy, including solar and wind power plants, will become the basis for meeting the growing electricity demand as part of the country's growth strategy. Mirzamakhmudov noted that Uzbekistan's economy is growing by 6% annually, and the population will continue to grow. This causes the demand for electricity to grow by 7-8% per year, and by 2030, this figure may stabilize at 7.5%. Uzbekistan plans to introduce up to 20 gigawatts of solar and wind power plant capacity to meet this demand. It is expected that the share of renewable energy sources in the country's total energy balance will reach 40%. The share of renewable energy is about 10%, but by the end of this year, it should increase to 15%. In the coming years, 2.5 to 3.5 gigawatts of new capacity will be commissioned annually. In addition, considerable attention will be paid to developing thermal and hydroelectric power plants, which are planned to reach 18.5 gigawatts of capacity by 2030. The minister also emphasized the importance of energy storage systems. Uzbekistan plans to install 300 megawatts of storage capacity this year and increase it to 4.2 gigawatts by 2030, mainly using lithium-ion batteries. Along with this, projects to create hydro-battery stations will be implemented. Mirzamakhmudov added that all these projects are financed by foreign direct investment, demonstrating the high interest of international investors in the country's energy sector. The Russian Energy Week 2024 forum is being held in Moscow from September 26 to 28. The event's main theme is “Energy Cooperation in a Multipolar World.” More than 70 speakers from various countries have participated, including from Russia, BRICS countries, and Africa. The forum discussed topics such as sustainable energy development, the role of hydrocarbons in the future, and issues of technological independence. One of the key events was the meeting of BRICS energy ministers. Earlier, The Times of Central Asia wrote about the annual meeting of the Board of Directors of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) held in Samarkand on September 25-26, where Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev proposed a program of green energy development for Central Asia.

UNESCO Concerned About Plans to Develop Western Tien Shan

UNESCO has expressed concern over the plans of Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan to develop natural areas of the Western Tien Shan, a World Natural Heritage site. This concern was realized after a visit by UNESCO and the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), which was a joint mission to these countries to assess the state of the site and the impact of economic activity on it. The public foundation (PF) “Rivers Without Borders” stated this in its report. According to UNESCO, the “Western Tien Shan” is a transboundary site in the Central Asian Tien Shan mountain system, one of the seven largest mountain ranges in the world. The altitude of different sections of the Western Tien Shan varies from 700 to 4503 meters. The site consists of diverse landscapes characterized by a vibrant biodiversity. The Western Tien Shan region is important globally as it is the birthplace of several fruit tree species and is characterized by diverse forest types and unique plant life. In Kyrgyzstan, evidence of the illegal mining of gold within the territory of the World Heritage Site was revealed. In addition, a powerful hydroelectric power plant is planned to be built on the Chatkal River, which may flood protected areas and disrupt the landscape. The construction of the Talas-Chatkal-Tashkent highway along the reservoir will only aggravate the ecological situation. In Kazakhstan, the authorities plan to build a cascade of hydropower plants on the Ugam River, which could destroy the current river ecosystem. Part of the river's flow will be directed through a 210-kilometer pipe for use in other regions of Turkestan region. Experts expressed severe concerns about destroying the natural ecosystem and possible consequences for local flora and fauna. The situation is no less alarming in Uzbekistan: the Chatkal and Ugam rivers have already been dammed, significantly altering their natural landscape. During the visit, the experts said that bulldozers and excavators are already changing the course of the Ugam River, channeling it into artificial channels to construct several small hydropower plants. Rivers Without Borders also oppose these projects, pointing out that they violate international standards and UNESCO requirements. The organization's chief specialist, Evgeny Simonov, stressed that implementing the projects without appropriate environmental assessments and consultations with UNESCO violates the Convention for the Protection of the World Cultural and Natural Heritage. The report on the mission's results is expected to be presented at the next session of the UNESCO World Heritage Committee in 2025 in Sofia, Bulgaria.

United States Supports Uzbekistan’s Methane Reduction Efforts

The U.S. Embassy in Uzbekistan reports that a joint project between GasGreen Asia LLC, a subsidiary of Maryland-based Climate Compass, and Uzbekistan’s national gas distribution company, Hududgazta’minot JSC, has been engaged in detecting and repairing natural gas leaks within the country’s national gas distribution system. This project contributes to the country’s green economy transition and commitments under the Global Methane Pledge. Climate Compass, LLC is a world leader in providing logistical and technical services for greenhouse gas emissions reduction projects. A Korean carbon finance company, Ecoeye Co., Ltd., is the principal investor of the project, which began in March 2023. Since the project’s inception, over 50,000 individual methane leaks have been identified, measured, and repaired, reducing over seven million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent emissions per year. The project has created more than 200 local jobs, including engineers, data specialists, and project managers, who received intensive training from American technical experts. The repairs have generated tens of millions of dollars in savings for Hududgazta’minot by preventing gas losses and contributing to significant environmental benefits. At the September 24 event highlighting the project’s significant achievements, U.S. Ambassador to Uzbekistan Jonathan Henick said: “The United States welcomes Uzbekistan’s commitment to a broad-based transition to a green economy. This project supports Uzbekistan’s efforts to attract foreign direct investment while reducing greenhouse gas emissions.” According to Henick, the United States strongly supported Uzbekistan’s decision to join the Global Methane Pledge in 2022, an initiative to reduce methane emissions worldwide. Methane reduction is critical to Uzbekistan’s efforts to meet its nationally determined contributions under the Paris Agreement on Climate Change. According to the United Nations Environment Program, methane emissions have accounted for approximately 30 percent of global warming and are an increasingly growing challenge. According to the “Methane in Central Asia: Emissions, Trends, Actions” report, Uzbekistan’s annual greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions remained largely stable and declined slightly over the past 15 years, ranging between 180 and 200 million tons of CO2-equivalent or 5 tons per person. The report says the country’s energy sector is responsible for 75–80 percent of GHG emissions, including 50 percent from fuel combustion and 25–30 percent from methane leaks in the coal, oil, and gas sectors, the equivalent of 50 million tons of CO2. Uzbekistan has successfully decoupled GHG emissions from economic growth and intends to reduce the specific GHG emissions per GDP by 35 percent by 2030 compared to the 2010 level.