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Water Security

Opinion: Central Asia’s Old Water Bargain Was Built for Cotton

Central Asia inherited a water bargain built for another economy. In the Soviet system, upstream republics stored water and released it for summer irrigation. Downstream republics used that flow for cotton and other crops. The cost of the exchange stayed inside one plan. Water releases, electricity, fuel, and crop quotas were part of the same political economy. After 1991, the dependence survived, but the plan that balanced it did not. The 1998 Syr Darya agreement already tied reservoir operation to irrigation releases and set compensation for the winter power Kyrgyzstan gave up. The 2000 Chu-Talas agreement went on to share the cost of operating and maintaining shared water infrastructure between Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. Those agreements were important, and they show why today’s dispute is not new. Central Asia has long known that water regulation carries a cost. What it has not built is a wider settlement that prices storage and seasonal regulation under today’s climate, energy, and market conditions. That question is now open again. In January 2026, Kyrgyzstan’s new Water Code came into force. It recognizes water as a commodity and introduces fees for domestic and external users. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have rejected payment for transboundary river water, saying existing agreements do not provide for it. Downstream governments fear an open-ended bill and a precedent that could turn every dry season into a financial dispute. The old model rested on cotton and central planning. Several conditions have changed. The climate is less stable, energy demand keeps rising, and national economies now want more from water than a cotton plan once did. Uzbekistan’s own reform language has turned against the old cotton model. At the UN General Assembly in 2023, President Shavkat Mirziyoyev said “millions of people were forced to pick cotton” in Uzbekistan over a century. In August 2026, he called the old system one that left Uzbeks “slaves to cotton.” That history shapes the water argument. Uzbekistan is not abolishing cotton. It still grows the crop and continues to reform the sector. But as Tashkent moves away from the old cotton-centered model, the regional water logic built around that model also needs revising. The same pressure runs through the Amu Darya, where agricultural adaptation has become an economic and political issue rather than a purely hydrological one. Less predictable river flows make seasonal storage more valuable. Water is also becoming scarcer in parts of the region. Kyrgyzstan sits at the center of that question. It is the only country in Central Asia whose water resources are almost entirely formed within its own territory, and Kyrgyz officials argue that it carries the upkeep for infrastructure that serves its neighbors. They say the country spent about $80 million on the water sector last year and around $259 million over five years. That spending covers the water sector as a whole, including infrastructure whose benefits reach beyond Kyrgyzstan’s borders. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan reject paying for river water, saying existing agreements do not require it. But storing that water and releasing it...

Japanese Investment

Japanese Investment Tackles Uzbekistan’s Aral Sea Crisis

Until recently, the rehabilitation center in Akmangit, a settlement in Karakalpakstan, relied on sewage trucks to remove wastewater. Although it receives about 3,500 patients with disabilities each year, the center had no sewer system. In March 2025, a Johkasou system, a compact Japanese unit that treats wastewater biologically, was installed at the center. The treated water can now be reused for irrigation instead of being hauled away. Similar systems were installed at a kindergarten and a specialized school. In their first four months of operation, the three units treated more than 16,400 cubic meters of wastewater. Although these installations are small relative to Karakalpakstan’s water and sanitation needs, they illustrate Japan’s approach in Uzbekistan’s Aral Sea region through local pilot projects tied to longer-term development programs. During an October 2025 visit, a United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) delegation and a representative of the Embassy of Japan in Uzbekistan saw residents using the program to introduce drip irrigation and expand small businesses. A smoked-fish producer in Samanbay employed 12 people. Since 2020, Japan has funded trials of water-saving and wastewater-treatment technologies in the region, supported climate-resilient agriculture, and introduced local business-development models. These projects draw less attention than Central Asia’s uranium, critical-mineral, energy, and transport deals. In Karakalpakstan, however, Japan has pursued influence through smaller projects intended to remain in place for years. Water and Agriculture Projects In September 2023, Japan provided $2 million for a UNDP program promoting climate-resilient agriculture in four districts of Karakalpakstan. By the program’s conclusion in 2025, more than 7,700 residents had gained access to clean drinking water. The Johkasou units were among the program’s most visible elements. Developed in Japan in the late 1940s amid sanitation problems, the decentralized systems offer an alternative where centralized sewer networks are impractical. Their treated water can be reused for irrigation. The program tested another Japanese technology on the dried Aral Sea bed. In 2024, UNDP planted 1,000 saxaul seedlings using a superabsorbent polymer (SAP) that retains moisture around plant roots. Saxaul, a desert shrub or small tree, helps stabilize sand and limit the spread of salt and dust from the former seabed. The 1,000 seedlings formed part of UNDP’s Green Aral Sea initiative. Between 2020 and March 2025, the program planted 823,000 trees across 658.2 hectares. In February 2026, Japan and UNDP launched a $4.6 million project scheduled to run through 2028. Its work includes irrigation rehabilitation, digital water monitoring, wastewater reuse, and desalination powered by renewable energy. More than 1,000 farmers and households are expected to benefit. Local Business Models Japan has paired these technologies with models for local economic development. One is the One Village, One Product Movement (OVOP), which began in Japan’s Oita Prefecture in 1979. Under the model, communities develop marketable products based on local resources and skills. In Karakalpakstan, OVOP has been applied to agriculture, handicrafts, and food processing, including the small businesses visited by the delegation in October 2025. Another Japanese approach is kaizen ("continuous improvement"). It seeks to improve production and...

Aral Sea

From Solastalgia to Solutions: What the First Aral School Cohort Discovered in Karakalpakstan

“They are producing food in a place where people believe there is nothing,” said Martina Manterola. In Karakalpakstan, the autonomous republic in western Uzbekistan where the retreat of the Aral Sea has left large areas increasingly arid, farmers continue to grow crops, while fishing survives in pockets of water near Moynaq. The Mexican researcher and artist, whose work focuses on food systems, ecology, and feminism, spent six months in the region as one of 22 participants in the first Aral School, an interdisciplinary residency based in Nukus, the regional capital, that brought together postgraduate researchers and specialists working across architecture, anthropology, water management, and food systems. Their task was to examine how environmental change is reshaping daily life and what outside researchers can learn from people who have remained in the region. What they found challenged familiar images of a landscape defined solely by environmental collapse: alongside farming and fishing, traditional buildings offer practical lessons in coping with heat, dust, and water scarcity. The Uzbekistan Art and Culture Development Foundation, the state-backed body behind the school, has opened applications for a second cohort. The next residency will run from January to June 2027 under the theme “Climate and Landscape.” The Times of Central Asia spoke with four members of the first cohort about what they learned. [caption id="attachment_56544" align="aligncenter" width="657"] Image: Aral School[/caption] Adapting to Heat, Dust, and Water Scarcity For Akhmed Kaipbergenov, an architect from Nukus, the program changed how he looked at the city where he grew up. “I always knew the environment around me. I knew how hot the summers are, how strong the wind can be, how much dust there is. But when you are a child, you don’t really think about these things as part of architecture.” After studying architecture and urban regeneration in Rome, Kaipbergenov began paying closer attention to the ways traditional buildings in Nukus respond to local conditions. Courtyards create shade and protected spaces away from the street. Building materials and orientation can reduce exposure to the sun, while ventilation matters in a city where summers are extremely hot and rainfall is scarce. “I don’t see them only as old or traditional elements,” Kaipbergenov said. “I see them as solutions that were developed because people had to live with this climate.” For him, that means contemporary architecture in Karakalpakstan should begin with simple measures rather than importing designs developed for very different environments. “Orientation, shading, ventilation, courtyards, materials and the relationship between indoor and outdoor spaces can make a big difference before we even start talking about complicated technologies,” he said. Landscaping also needs to reflect the scarcity of water. Instead of trying to reproduce water-intensive green spaces, Kaipbergenov argues that planners could make greater use of shaded pedestrian areas, courtyards, and places to sit. “I would start with shade,” he said. “It sounds very simple, but in Nukus, shade can completely change how you experience a public space.” Traditional courtyards, he believes, could also be reinterpreted in schools, libraries, and cultural...

Nuclear Waste

Central Asia Makes Progress on Uranium Cleanup, but Major Risks Remain

Radioactive waste lies beside the river in Mailuu-Suu, a former uranium town in Kyrgyzstan’s picturesque mountain landscape. Engineers preparing to secure it found a problem inside one of its dams. Additional drilling revealed tailings within the dam structure itself. Two subsequent studies concluded that waste from two connected ponds would have to be moved to a safer location. The discovery changed the cleanup design and increased its cost, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency’s revised master plan. Material that planners had intended to secure in place could no longer safely remain there. Once known as Mailbox 200, the town was founded in 1946 for a secret Soviet uranium program. Its workforce included Germans treated as politically suspect and former Red Army soldiers punished for surrendering during World War II. Uranium mining and processing at Mailuu-Suu ended in the late 1960s, leaving waste buried along the river. Cleanup is expected to continue until 2032. Even then, the authorities will need to maintain the restored sites and check that contamination remains contained. Mailuu-Suu illustrates why Central Asia’s uranium cleanup has stretched across decades. The waste sits in places where rivers and unstable slopes can carry it beyond the original industrial sites. Making those places safer requires extensive engineering, followed by public oversight that must outlast the contractors. [caption id="attachment_56370" align="aligncenter" width="1774"] Archival photograph of Mailuu-Suu’s old mill and uranium tailings; image: Peter Waggit/IAEA[/caption] The International Atomic Energy Agency’s latest assessment, published in January 2026, records substantial progress. Four out of seven priority sites have been remediated since the original regional plan was adopted in 2017. But Mailuu-Suu remains one of the largest and most complex projects, with work expected to extend beyond the updated regional plan’s 2030 horizon. Across the region, former uranium operations left radioactive residue after mining and processing ended. The IAEA describes facilities abandoned without adequate plans for safe closure. National governments inherited responsibility for sites where no private owner remained to pay for the work. The geography compounds the situation. The IAEA’s original planning framework identifies tailings ponds near major rivers in seismically active areas. Flooding or a landslide can undermine containment and lead to contaminated materials traveling downstream. The location of a deposit therefore helps determine the urgency and design of its cleanup. At Mailuu-Suu, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) announced a €23 million grant in 2023. The original design included soil covers two meters thick to reduce water entering the waste and prevent access to it. The project concerned more than two million cubic meters of tailings along the river and its tributaries. Following the devastating 2023 earthquake in Turkey and Syria, Kyrgyzstan’s Ministry of Construction required further checks on the dams’ stability. Drilling revealed tailings inside the dam at pond seven. Subsequent studies found that the waste in ponds five and seven could not safely remain in place. The IAEA plan warns that a strong earthquake could cause the dam to collapse, allowing water-saturated waste to liquefy and enter the river....

Central Asia Water Cooperation

Water in Central Asia: Can the Five States Reach an Agreement?

Central Asia is entering a period of growing water stress, as climate change makes supplies less predictable while demand continues to rise. Populations are growing, economies require new energy and industrial capacity, glaciers are shrinking, and agriculture continues to consume most of the available water. The region’s two main rivers – the Amu Darya and Syr Darya – cross national borders, making it impossible for any one country to solve the problem on its own. After decades of disputes, Central Asian states are increasingly trying to manage water jointly. In 2026, that cooperation has produced further practical steps, from plans for automated water accounting in the Syr Darya basin to new proposals for reforming regional mechanisms. The question now is whether the five countries can agree on rules when their water needs remain different. Water and Energy: An Old Conflict The structural conflict is rooted in the region’s geography. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are upstream states and use water in part for hydropower generation, particularly in winter. Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan are downstream and need large volumes in summer during the irrigation season. During the Soviet period, a centralized exchange system was in place: upstream republics stored water in winter and released it in summer, receiving energy resources in return. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, that unified mechanism disappeared. Interstate agreements preserved a degree of coordination but did not eliminate the tension between upstream energy needs and downstream agricultural interests. Climate change is now adding another layer to the problem. Retreating glaciers in the Pamir and Tien Shan mountains are altering the timing and reliability of river flows, while populations and consumption are increasing. Countries across the region are planning new power plants, industrial facilities, mining projects, and data centers, while agriculture remains the largest consumer of water. From Seasonal Quotas to Joint Management The main formal mechanism for coordinating river allocations remains the Interstate Commission for Water Coordination of Central Asia (ICWC), established in 1992. Through it, countries coordinate water withdrawal limits and reservoir operating regimes in the Amu Darya and Syr Darya basins. In late 2025, the countries agreed on water allocations for 2026: for the Amu Darya, the total withdrawal limit for the water-management year from October 2025 to October 2026 was around 55.4 billion cubic meters, while the Syr Darya allocation for the non-growing season was approximately 4.2 billion cubic meters. The five-state framework does not, however, cover every major user of the Amu Darya. Afghanistan is outside the regional allocation system, while its Qosh Tepa Canal, now under construction, has added another source of uncertainty over future downstream flows. Such agreements keep the shared system functioning, but many decisions are still made ahead of each new season. Climate change and rising demand require a longer-term model. In February of this year, Kazakhstan proposed developing a Central Asian Framework Convention on Water Use, while joint infrastructure projects, including Kyrgyzstan’s Kambarata-1 hydropower plant with the participation of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, are gradually adding shared economic interests...

Cotton

Uzbekistan Cotton: Mirziyoyev Decries ‘Slaves to Cotton’ Past

For decades now, anyone driving through Uzbekistan, especially through agricultural areas, would likely at some point along the road have encountered a hill with rocks arranged near the top to spell out “Paxta – Bizning Oq Oltinimiz.” It translates from Uzbek as “Cotton is our white gold” and it was a mantra in Uzbekistan going back to the days of the Soviet Union. However, Uzbekistan’s current president, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, does not share this view of cotton’s value to his people and was recently cited as saying the crop turned many people in Uzbekistan into “slaves of cotton.” A Black History of White Gold Going back to the early years after the Russian Tsarist Empire seized what is now Uzbekistan in the 1860s, Moscow viewed the area as an ideal source of cotton and promoted giving over agricultural land for cotton growing. Uzbekistan remained a major cotton producer as part of the Soviet Union and the emphasis on growing the crop increased. Soviet propaganda stressed production of cotton as a patriotic duty and every year, hundreds of thousands of people, including children, were forced into the cotton fields to work as “volunteers” at harvest time. The practice and the propaganda carried over when Uzbekistan became independent in late 1991. If anything, cotton gained a new importance in independent Uzbekistan. Uzbekistan did not have much to sell on international markets and cotton sales were an important means of earning hard currency. This was true for years. In 1995, Uzbekistan’s cotton sales totaled some $1.6 billion and two years later totaled $1.4 billion. While the price of cotton fell on world markets, Uzbekistan’s cotton sales were still bringing in nearly $1 billion in 2008 and in 2013 cotton and textile sales amounted to just over $1 billion. The continued use of forced labor, mainly women and children, drew international criticism and sparked calls to boycott Uzbek cotton. The Cotton Campaign launched efforts to persuade international brands to stop using cotton from Uzbekistan in 2009, with more than 330 brands eventually joining the boycott. But countries such as China, Bangladesh, Vietnam, and Iran still bought Uzbek cotton and forced labor in Uzbekistan’s cotton fields continued. In 2014, a Human Rights Watch report said, “The Uzbek government forcibly mobilized nearly 2 million adults and children during the autumn cotton harvest to pick cotton in abusive conditions for little to no pay.” Local officials, the heads of factories and other businesses had to meet quotas for the labor force in the fields. Imams used sermons to exhort worshippers to go pick cotton, saying it was a religious duty. The Luster Wears Off Even before he was president, Mirziyoyev indicated he took a different view of the use of forced labor in the cotton fields. In late July 2016, as international pressure was mounting, then-Prime Minister of Uzbekistan Mirziyoyev told all the provincial governors, “Each of you will be held personally accountable for the use of child labor” and added, “If I see even a single child...