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BRICS

Tokayev Meets U.S. Envoy Sergio Gor on Sidelines of BRICS Summit

India hosted the 18th BRICS summit in New Delhi on September 12–13. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are among the partner countries of this international grouping, which began meeting in 2006 and held its first summit in 2009. Uzbekistan was represented by a delegation headed by Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy and Finance Jamshid Kuchkarov. Kazakhstan’s delegation was led by President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev. On Saturday, September 12, the Kazakh president met on the sidelines of the summit with Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan and Sergio Gor, the U.S. president’s special envoy for South and Central Asia. During his meeting with the crown prince, they discussed economic and investment cooperation. In 2025, the United Arab Emirates ranked among Kazakhstan’s four largest foreign investors. Foreign direct investment from the Emirates totaled $1.6 billion. In January–March 2026, bilateral trade between Kazakhstan and the UAE amounted to $45.8 million. Over the past 20 years, Emirati investment in Kazakhstan has exceeded $7 billion, including around $3 billion over the past two and a half years. That same day, President Tokayev met with Sergio Gor, the U.S. president’s special envoy for South and Central Asia. Gor delivered a personal message from President Donald Trump congratulating Tokayev ahead of the 35th anniversary of Kazakhstan’s independence. They discussed the development of the Kazakhstan-U.S. enhanced strategic partnership, including cooperation in artificial intelligence and digitalization. According to the official readout, they also discussed the Kazakh president’s planned participation in the G20 summit, scheduled to take place in Miami in December 2026. Tokayev said: “I am currently preparing to take part in the G20 Summit in Miami. I believe this will also be a good opportunity to discuss the issues on the bilateral agenda. We prefer not fine words, but tangible results and practical steps to advance our mutual cooperation.” Tokayev also reaffirmed his invitation for President Trump to visit Kazakhstan. Contacts between senior Central Asian and U.S. officials have intensified. The U.S. Embassy in Bishkek reported on September 2 that Gor had met with Tokayev and other regional leaders in Kyrgyzstan. In June, Gor met with Kazakhstan’s foreign minister. Also in June, Tokayev met with Ben Black, chief executive officer of the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC), as part of Astana’s efforts to expand economic cooperation with Washington and attract more strategic investment. On July 10, Tokayev spoke by phone with President Trump. Another meeting of the secretariat of the C5+1 framework for U.S.-Central Asia cooperation took place in Ashgabat on September 9. Gor serves as both the U.S. ambassador to India and the U.S. president’s special envoy for South and Central Asia. Also on Saturday, Tokayev had an informal meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in New Delhi, at the Russian leader’s residence during his visit to India. Reports suggested the meeting was unplanned. No details of their discussion were released. On Sunday, September 13, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev delivered a speech at the plenary session of the BRICS Outreach Summit in New Delhi, focusing on the theme of "Strengthening Resilience, Innovation, Cooperation, and Stability." In his speech, Tokayev noted: “Last year, the volume of transit cargo transportation...

Nuclear Disarmament

Central Asian States Call for New Arms Controls as Nuclear Framework Weakens

Foreign ministers from Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan have called for new, verifiable arms control mechanisms to prevent a nuclear arms race, warning that international disarmament efforts are losing ground. In a joint statement issued on September 8 to mark 20 years since the signing of the Central Asian Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone Treaty, the five governments expressed concern over stalled disarmament, the end of key agreements, and the modernization of nuclear arsenals. They urged nuclear powers to resume negotiations. The statement comes seven months after New START, the last U.S.-Russian strategic nuclear arms treaty, expired on February 5. UN Secretary-General António Guterres said its expiration left the two countries without binding limits on their strategic nuclear arsenals for the first time in more than half a century. President Donald Trump has criticized New START as a “badly negotiated deal” and called instead for a new, modernized arms control treaty that would include China. The ministers also cited the failure of the Eleventh Review Conference of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, which ended without a consensus outcome on May 22. Kazakhstan had already advanced a similar position. As TCA reported, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev used the August 29 anniversary of the Semipalatinsk nuclear test site’s closure to call for negotiations among nuclear powers, the entry into force of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, and renewed multilateral action to reduce nuclear risks. Kazakhstan’s connection to the issue extends beyond diplomacy. The Soviet Union conducted 456 nuclear tests at Semipalatinsk between 1949 and 1989. Kazakhstan closed the site in 1991 and subsequently relinquished the nuclear arsenal it had inherited after the Soviet collapse. The regional treaty was signed in Semipalatinsk on September 8, 2006, and entered into force in 2009. It established the first nuclear-weapon-free zone located entirely in the Northern Hemisphere, directly bordering two nuclear-weapon states, Russia and China. That history gives Kazakhstan a distinctive place in regional nuclear diplomacy. Uzbekistan originated the proposal for the zone, presenting it at the UN General Assembly in September 1993. The September 8 statement explicitly acknowledges Uzbekistan’s initiative while crediting all five countries with establishing the zone. The statement also recognizes Kyrgyzstan for initiating the International Day for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation Awareness, observed annually on March 5, and Turkmenistan for chairing the December 2024 anniversary meeting in Ashgabat. Kazakhstan has also helped coordinate cooperation beyond Central Asia. In August 2024, it hosted a conference in Astana with the UN Office for Disarmament Affairs to strengthen cooperation among nuclear-weapon-free zones, following an earlier meeting in 2019. The five states also renewed their appeal for the United States to ratify a protocol providing security assurances to the region. In May 2014, China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States signed the protocol on negative security assurances, committing not to use or threaten to use nuclear weapons against the five Central Asian treaty members. The other four signatories have ratified it. Washington has not. The request is longstanding. The five governments made the same appeal...

Bilateral Relations

Trade and Migrant Workers Fuel Serbia’s Growing Ties with Uzbekistan

BELGRADE – While seeking to join the European Union – a process that has been going on for nearly two decades – Serbia is also moving to build closer relations with Central Asia. After expanding cooperation with Kazakhstan earlier this year, the Southeast European nation is now looking to replicate that momentum in its relations with Uzbekistan. At first glance, the two countries seem to have little in common. Serbia is a relatively small economy with strong ties to European markets, while Uzbekistan is Central Asia’s most populous nation and one of the region’s fastest-growing economies. Yet the two states are actively expanding their cooperation. On September 8, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic and his Uzbek counterpart, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, signed a joint statement establishing a strategic partnership between Belgrade and Tashkent. Uzbekistan’s leader’s visit to Serbia comes less than a year after Vucic made his first official trip to the Central Asian state. In the meantime, the Serbian government announced its plans to open an embassy in Tashkent – a move that will undoubtedly further strengthen diplomatic and economic ties between the two countries. While the economy was at the top of the agenda during Vucic and Mirziyoyev’s talks in Belgrade, the meeting also carried significant political importance for the Serbian leader. Mirziyoyev arrived in Serbia on September 7, when thousands of people gathered to attend the funeral of former Bosnian Serb military commander Ratko Mladic. His death and the public tribute to him have reopened divisions over Serbia’s wartime legacy and further complicated its relationship with the European Union. Vucic had a long-standing reason not to attend the ceremony: he was due to meet Mirziyoyev at the airport. However, multiple opposition figures accused the Serbian leader of using Mirziyoyev’s visit as a justification for staying away, with one alleging that the visit had actually been rescheduled to give him an excuse. The following day, the two leaders, as well as Serbian and Uzbek delegations, signed 20 agreements in various fields, from digitalization and renewable energy to trade, transport, agriculture, tourism, healthcare, and culture. Vucic even hinted that Serbia aims to expand military ties with Uzbekistan. As he stressed, Belgrade plans to develop long-range ballistic missiles over the next year and has invited Uzbekistan to cooperate in this area. Meanwhile, the Southeast European nation is expected to establish direct flights between Belgrade and Tashkent within the next seven to eight months. More importantly, Serbia, which has free trade agreements with the European Union, China, Turkey, the UK, and the Eurasian Economic Union, as well as regional Balkan nations, hopes to strike such a deal with Uzbekistan. According to Jagoda Lazarevic, the country’s Minister of Internal and Foreign Trade, if the process succeeds, Serbia would become the first European country to enter into free trade talks with Uzbekistan. However, bilateral trade between the two nations remains relatively small, reaching $41.8 million in 2025. By comparison, according to data from Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Trade and Integration, trade between the largest Central Asian country...

Uzbekistan-India Relations

Uzbekistan India Trade Target Rises to $5 Billion as Uranium Cooperation Expands

Uzbekistan and India want to increase bilateral trade to $5 billion by 2030 – nearly four times the 2025 level. During talks between Uzbekistan's president, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, and India's prime minister, Narendra Modi, in Tashkent, uranium, critical minerals, and industrial cooperation were among the key economic issues. However, trade growth continues to run up against a longstanding problem: there is no direct overland route between India and Central Asia, prompting Tashkent and New Delhi to again look toward transport corridors through Iran. Modi visited Uzbekistan on August 29-30, his fourth trip to the country. Following the talks, bilateral relations were elevated to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. The sides signed a package of documents covering areas including geology and mineral resources, finance, education, tourism, and environmental protection. A separate outcome was the new bilateral trade target of $5 billion by 2030. In 2025, trade turnover between the two countries reached $1.3 billion for the first time, an increase of 33.3%. Uzbekistan exported $164.6 million worth of goods to India and imported $1.15 billion. To meet the new target, bilateral trade would have to grow almost fourfold. The imbalance has continued in 2026. In the first half of the year, bilateral trade totaled $598.1 million. Uzbekistan imported $514 million worth of goods from India while exporting $84.2 million. As of the beginning of August, 439 companies involving Indian investors were operating in Uzbekistan. Mutual Interest in Expanding Ties Tashkent and New Delhi have already completed a joint study on a possible preferential trade agreement. The two governments now say they have instructed their ministries to consider the next steps toward an agreement. A significant part of the new agreements concerns natural resources. The memorandum on geology and mineral resources provides for cooperation in the exploration and development of deposits, while critical minerals were specifically included in the leaders’ talks. India is particularly interested in uranium. Under a contract signed in 2019, Uzbekistan agreed to supply India with 1,100 tons of uranium concentrate. Following the latest talks, Modi said progress had been made toward a long-term arrangement for uranium supplies from Uzbekistan. No new contract or quantities have yet been announced. For India, the issue is becoming increasingly important as it expands nuclear power generation. New Delhi has set a target of increasing the country’s nuclear power capacity to 100 GW by 2047, from 8.78 GW today, substantially increasing its demand for nuclear fuel. Uzbekistan is also interested in Indian investment in critical minerals. Tashkent wants foreign partners to help process raw materials domestically, while India is seeking to diversify supplies of resources needed for electronics, energy, and industry. Transport Remains the Obstacle Reaching $5 billion in trade, however, will also require addressing the transport problem. India has no direct overland access to Central Asia, while Uzbekistan is double landlocked. The shortest overland route would run through Pakistan and Afghanistan, but India-Pakistan tensions have long prevented it from becoming a dependable trade corridor. That has pushed the two countries toward alternatives through Iran. One option runs through...

SCO Summit

SCO Summit Delivers Institutional Reform but Leaves Development Bank Unsettled

Leaders of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization adopted amendments to the bloc's Charter and approved regulations for two security bodies in Bishkek on September 1, but stopped short of launching the proposed SCO Development Bank. The official outcome list contains 28 documents. They include the Bishkek Declaration marking the SCO's 25th anniversary, a statement on assistance to countries affected by emergencies, and measures covering transport, digital policy, energy, and climate cooperation. For Kyrgyzstan, which used its fourth chairmanship to press for new financial and emergency response mechanisms, the results were mixed. The emergency statement gave political backing to a Kyrgyz initiative, while the bank remained under negotiation. Kazakhstan then made a competing offer to host its headquarters. An institutional package The member states signed a protocol amending the 2002 SCO Charter and approved regulations for the Universal Center for Countering Security Challenges and Threats. They also approved rules for the executive committee of the SCO Anti-Drug Center. The package included programs against drug addiction and synthetic narcotics through 2030, as well as amendments to the 2010 agreement on cooperation against crime. The decisions continue an institutional reorganization begun at the 2025 Tianjin summit. That meeting approved agreements establishing the Anti-Drug Center in Dushanbe and a Universal Center based on the SCO's existing regional counterterrorism structure in Tashkent. President Sadyr Japarov said the organization should remain free of bloc politics and confrontation. He called for the rapid launch of the Universal Center and said Bishkek had prepared the conditions for an SCO center against transnational organized crime. Opening the meeting, he said the anniversary should become the start of a new phase for the organization. Bank progress, but no launch The Bishkek Declaration records progress toward creating an SCO Development Bank among interested member states during Kyrgyzstan's chairmanship, though the wording is qualified. The summit did not produce a founding agreement, capital commitment, or a launch date. Japarov urged members to reach a practical decision on the bank and invited them to use Kyrgyzstan's Tamchy Special Financial Investment Territory for joint projects. Kyrgyzstan had already proposed Bishkek as the bank's headquarters. However, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev used his summit address to make a rival offer. Kazakhstan supports directing the proposed bank's resources toward infrastructure, technology, and industry, he said. "If there is consensus among the member states, Kazakhstan could host this institution, its headquarters," Tokayev said in the official transcript. The two bids underline how much remains unresolved. Members reached political consensus to establish the bank in Tianjin last year, but its membership, governance, capital, and location are still being negotiated. Kyrgyz emergency initiative advances The heads of state adopted a separate statement on assistance to countries affected by emergencies. Kyrgyzstan had spent its chairmanship promoting an SCO assistance mechanism and, in May, sought support for a special account to finance emergency aid after major natural disasters. The statement's adoption is a clear political success for Bishkek. Its published title does not establish whether members accepted the proposed special account or how...

J-10CE Fighter Jets

Uzbekistan J-10CE Fighter Jets Confirmed in Official Footage

Uzbekistan has publicly unveiled Chinese J-10CE fighter jets for the first time, ending months of speculation over the aircraft’s arrival in its air force. Official footage shows at least six aircraft carrying Uzbek military markings. For three decades, Soviet-designed MiG-29s and Su-27s have formed the backbone of Uzbekistan’s fighter fleet. The country has now become the first Central Asian state to operate a modern Chinese fighter and the second confirmed foreign operator of the J-10CE after Pakistan. The first reports of a potential J-10CE purchase appeared several months before the aircraft were publicly unveiled. Confirmation came on August 28, when footage marking the 35th anniversary of Uzbekistan’s independence showed Chinese-built fighters carrying Uzbek insignia. Uzbekistan’s Defense Ministry subsequently released its own video of the new aircraft. At least six J-10CEs have now been publicly shown, while earlier reports that Uzbekistan had ordered 24 aircraft remain unconfirmed. The need to modernize the fleet has been apparent for years. Much of the country’s combat fleet consists of Soviet-designed aircraft, but open sources do not establish how many are currently combat-ready. GlobalMilitary.net, which updated its Uzbekistan inventory in July 2026, lists 38 MiG-29s, 25 Su-27s, and 13 Su-25 ground-attack aircraft as active. The J-10CE gives Uzbekistan a modern platform as an alternative to relying exclusively on aging Soviet-designed fighters. The export version of China’s J-10C is equipped with an active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar and can employ modern Chinese guided weapons. But the significance of the acquisition goes beyond the capabilities of the aircraft itself. Switching to a new fighter type requires training pilots and engineers, securing spare parts and munitions, maintaining engines and electronics, and, over time, developing domestic maintenance infrastructure. In combat aviation, choosing a new platform can create a relationship with its supplier that lasts for decades. In Uzbekistan’s case, some of that infrastructure could build on existing military cooperation with China. Tashkent previously acquired Chinese FD-2000 air defense systems, the export version of the HQ-9. In 2019, the Uzbek military conducted the first publicly reported live-fire tests of the systems. Chinese military analyst Zhang Junshe told the Global Times on August 31 that the six aircraft displayed could be the first batch of a larger delivery. The newspaper also raised the possibility of integrating the J-10CE with Chinese-made ground-based air defense systems through data links. Diversifying Beyond Russia The J-10CE acquisition, however, does not necessarily signal a sudden Uzbek shift from Russia to China. Tashkent has long diversified its military procurement and operates equipment from multiple suppliers. This is particularly visible in transport aviation. Alongside Soviet-designed Il-76s, An-26s, and An-12s, Uzbekistan has acquired European Airbus C295s. In February 2026, Brazil’s Embraer officially identified Uzbekistan as the previously undisclosed customer for its C-390 Millennium and the first operator of the aircraft in Central Asia. Fighter aviation had been different. For decades, the MiG-29 and Su-27 were the staples of its air force. China has now entered this segment for the first time. It is therefore premature to speak of...