Kyrgyzstan’s non-observed (shadow) economy, excluding the agricultural sector, accounted for 19.2% of GDP in 2023, marking a 1% decrease from 2022’s 20.2%, according to the latest data from the National Statistical Committee. The Committee attributes this improvement primarily to reductions in shadow activities within key sectors: wholesale and retail trade and motor vehicle repair by 0.5%, construction by 0.4%, and transportation and cargo storage by 0.2%.
Historical data reveals a steady decline in the shadow economy’s share of GDP over recent years, estimated at 20.4% in 2021, 20.1% in 2020, and 22.8% in 2019. Shadow economic activities in Kyrgyzstan are concentrated in sectors such as trade, car repair, transportation, construction, processing industries, hospitality, and various services.
Discrepancies persist, however, in shadow economy estimates. In January 2024, Minister of Economy and Commerce Daniyar Amangeldiev noted that international financial institutions assessed Kyrgyzstan’s shadow economy as comprising 60% to 70% of GDP. He explained this divergence by citing differences in methodologies used by the National Statistical Committee and international organizations to calculate the informal economy’s size.
Although the National Statistical Committee has yet to publish its shadow economy assessment for 2024, Minister Amangeldiyev recently highlighted the positive impacts of a shrinking shadow economy. He credited it, alongside growing trade volumes, with contributing to Kyrgyzstan’s GDP growth last year.
For context, the U.S. Department of Commerce’s International Trade Administration estimates Kyrgyzstan’s informal economy at 25% to 72% of GDP, underscoring the challenge of accurately quantifying this sector.
