A recent drone strike on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) office in Novorossiysk has raised concerns in Kazakhstan, whose oil exports rely heavily on the pipeline route. The attack, which killed two people and damaged nearby infrastructure, occurred just one day after Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in New York. While there is no official indication that the CPC was a deliberate target, the incident has prompted debate over the implications for Kazakhstan’s economic security and diplomatic neutrality amid the ongoing war.

According to CPC, the attack struck its administrative office in central Novorossiysk during the workday. The building sustained damage in addition to nearby residential blocks and a hotel. Two CPC employees were wounded and evacuated; the office’s operations were suspended. The consortium also said others in the building, not employed by CPC, suffered serious injuries. 

Authorities in the Krasnodar region confirmed two deaths and seven injuries from the strike, declaring a state of emergency in the city.  Russian media reported extensive damage to residential buildings and a hotel near the CPC office. 

In response, Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Energy issued a statement assuring that pipeline operations would continue as normal. The ministry said oil intake from Kazakh shippers remains unaffected, and the transportation and loading of oil via the CPC marine terminal is proceeding without restrictions. The ministry added that it is coordinating with CPC shareholders and monitoring developments in real time. 

Notably, the attack followed just 12 hours after Tokayev’s meeting with Zelenskyy in New York. According to the Kazakh presidential press service, Zelenskyy expressed his view of the war’s trajectory while Tokayev emphasized the importance of sustained diplomacy. Ukraine’s version, via its presidential press service, was more expansive: Zelenskyy thanked Tokayev for support on sovereignty, insisted on a leaders’ summit, and said Kazakhstan’s mediation role was welcome. In a later interview, Zelenskyy even floated the possibility of meeting Russian President Vladimir Putin on neutral territory such as Kazakhstan. 

When asked about that proposal after the Novorossiysk attack, Tokayev stated firmly that Kazakhstan does not see itself as a mediator in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. He reiterated that both sides should engage directly, while supporting continued talks. “Talks must continue,” he said. 

Kazakh political analyst Daniyar Ashimbayev noted that Tokayev’s extended commentary suggested he may feel less enthusiastic about a repeat meeting with Zelenskyy. Oil expert Olzhas Baidildinov stated that around 80 percent of Kazakhstan’s oil exports transit via the CPC; he therefore warned the strike directly threatens Astana’s interests. 

Baidildinov also suggested that Kazakhstan may need to consider a range of policy responses to ensure the security of its oil export routes, including enhanced monitoring of trade and transit channels. He noted that international companies operating in Kazakhstan, particularly those using the CPC pipeline, could be indirectly affected by any future disruptions.

Kazakhstan’s Foreign Ministry has not issued a public statement on the incident. Meanwhile, diplomatic engagement continues at various levels. During his visit to New York, Tokayev also met with Chevron CEO Michael Wirth. Chevron is among the largest foreign investors in Kazakhstan’s energy sector and exports a significant volume of oil via CPC.

Analysis and Risks

The strike on Novorossiysk has heightened concerns about the vulnerability of key energy infrastructure used by Kazakhstan, particularly the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), which carries about 80% of the country’s oil exports. While there is no official indication that the CPC office was an intended target, any disruption to the route could have economic repercussions for Kazakhstan and its international partners.

Observers note the challenge Kazakhstan faces in maintaining its policy of balanced neutrality amid the ongoing war. The proximity of the attack to a high-level diplomatic meeting between Tokayev and Zelenskyy has drawn attention, though Kazakh officials have remained cautious in their public statements.