Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev arrived in Turkey on an official visit late on Monday, where he held talks with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. The two leaders went on to co-chair the fifth meeting of the Kazakhstan–Turkey High-Level Strategic Cooperation Council. Coming amid heightened tensions in the Caspian region, particularly between Russia and Azerbaijan, the trip appears aimed at recalibrating regional dynamics, though analysts say its full implications remain unclear.

Tokayev’s visit ended on a ceremonial high, as Erdoğan bestowed upon him the Devlet Nişanı, Turkey’s highest state honor. Accepting the award, Tokayev — who noted he had previously declined both domestic and foreign distinctions — thanked the Turkish president and people, highlighting Kazakhstan’s political and economic achievements. Erdoğan, in turn, praised Kazakhstan as the “center of peace and stability in its region.” Yet with Kazakhstan straddling both Central Asia and the Caspian basin — each a strategic priority for Ankara — it remains unclear which “region” Erdoğan had in mind.

Much of the visit, however, played out behind closed doors. The official press release offered only general statements and few specifics. But the images released were polished and plentiful.

Ahead of the summit, Tokayev met with prominent Turkish business leaders already active in Kazakhstan or planning future investments in the country’s economy.

Political analyst Adil Kaukenov, a China specialist, weighed in on Tokayev’s business meetings via his Telegram channel, stating that the main topics were processing and logistics. His colleague Daniyar Ashimbayev, meanwhile, interpreted the visit as evidence that Astana is pursuing the foreign policy course it deems necessary.

“I have already written about the logistical and geopolitical rivalry between Central Asia, the South Caucasus, and Asia Minor,” Ashimbayev observed. “A strange situation even arose when Kazakhstan signed one agreement on the Trans-Afghan Highway with Kabul, and Tashkent signed another. Or the constant discussion between Tashkent and Baku on the development of the Trans-Caspian corridor without the participation of Ashgabat and Astana. Tensions have risen in relations between Baku and Moscow, which could jeopardize Caspian logistics. Against this backdrop, the Kazakh authorities are methodically pushing through their agenda.”

Ashimbayev also recalled Kazakhstan’s recent diplomatic successes, such as securing EU sanctions exemptions for agricultural and coal exports.

“In this regard, Tokayev’s trip to Ankara was intended to resolve possible contradictions and misunderstandings in bilateral relations,” Ashimbayev concluded.

While official sources emphasized economic and cultural-humanitarian cooperation as the main themes of the visit, Ashimbayev hinted that more sensitive topics may have been discussed privately.

“The Turkish release mentions that the parties discussed defense issues, while the Kazakh release says they talked about IT,” he noted. “But by and large, the meaning of the talks is that both leaders calmly sorted out mutual issues, with no one acting as a supplicant or ‘vassal’ (as is sometimes the case at similar meetings). Kazakhstan methodically focused on the issues of interest to it and correctly discussed the issues raised by the host of the summit.”

A closer analysis of publications on Akorda, the Kazakh presidential website, offers subtle clues about the meeting’s agenda. One statement from the Strategic Cooperation Council notes that the two sides discussed “prospects for increasing exports via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline.” Tokayev also “invited Turkish companies to participate in projects aimed at reducing the electricity deficit,” and expressed confidence in the partnership between KazMunayGas and Turkiye Petroleum.

The BTC pipeline is often floated as an alternative to Russian export routes, though it tends to re-emerge during times of political tension as a form of leverage. Moscow remains unenthusiastic about Ankara’s growing role as a logistics hub in the region.

During a media briefing, Tokayev said: “Currently, 1.4 million tons of Kazakh oil are transported annually to Turkey via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline. We discussed increasing supply volumes and welcome Turkiye Petroleum’s intention to work in the Kazakh market. We are also interested in utilizing the investment opportunities of Turkish companies and their experience in diversifying energy sources and building power plants. We are ready to jointly implement large-scale projects.”

But even more significant was Tokayev’s public and official invitation for Turkey to increase its presence in the Caspian region.

“The development of the Trans-Caspian international transport route, known as the Middle Corridor, is of great importance. This initiative is in the interests of both countries. Kazakhstan is modernizing its railways, building highways, and upgrading infrastructure to boost shipping on the Caspian Sea. We invite Turkish investors to actively participate in these projects. Our government is ready to provide special incentives to Turkish entrepreneurs,” Tokayev stated.

The Caspian Sea, once largely dominated by Russia, requires substantial investment to increase its logistical capacity. This includes not only the BTC pipeline, which relies on barge transport from Aktau, but other east-west cargo routes such as Chinese goods en route to Europe. The limited depth of the sea restricts large vessels, reducing the economic appeal of the Middle Corridor. Turkey, with an interest in both the BTC and the broader corridor, is a logical partner.

From a geopolitical perspective, Ankara, as a NATO member, could serve as a counterweight to Russia and Iran in the region.

Viewed through that lens, Tokayev’s outreach to Erdoğan looks like a calculated and strategic move, and Erdoğan appeared to be acknowledging this by presenting Kazakhstan’s president with Turkey’s highest award.

The question now is, how will Moscow respond?

In a recent podcast discussion, EU Ambassador to Kazakhstan Aleška Simkić and Kazakhstan’s Ambassador to the EU and NATO, Roman Vassilenko, discussed the evolving relationship between the European Union and Kazakhstan and broader Central Asia. Their exchange offered insight into the shared strategic interests driving EU–Kazakhstan cooperation across trade, energy, critical raw materials, connectivity, and mobility.

Trade and Investment: A Stable Foundation
Trade and investment continue to underpin the relationship; the European Union remains Kazakhstan’s largest trading partner and top foreign investor. Bilateral trade reached $49.7 billion in 2024, with the majority comprising energy exports from Kazakhstan, highlighting its role as a key supplier to European markets. The EU collectively accounts for a significant share of Kazakhstan’s FDI, equal to €54.8 billion in 2022, representing approximately 50–55% of Kazakhstan’s total FDI.

The Enhanced Partnership and Cooperation Agreement (EPCA), in effect since 2020, underpins the EU–Kazakhstan bilateral relationship, providing a legal framework for cooperation across 29 sectors. As noted by both ambassadors, it enables structured dialogue on trade, energy, governance, and sustainability. While political engagement has increased, both sides acknowledge that deeper implementation is needed to fully leverage the EPCA in line with the EU’s broader strategy for Central Asia.

Roman Vassilenko acknowledged the recent momentum: “I think the relationship between Kazakhstan and the EU has strengthened tremendously over the past three and a half years. With a relatively new Commission in place in Brussels, and with the President of Kazakhstan committed to strengthening ties with the European Union as part of our balanced and pragmatic foreign policy, we are at a moment where we can truly advance, deepen, and strengthen our relations in many ways.”

EU Ambassador to Kazakhstan, Aleška Simkić (left) with Kazakhstan’s Ambassador to the EU and NATO, Roman Vassilenko (right); Image: EU Delegation to Kazakhstan.

Energy and Raw Materials: Strategic Realignment
While energy has long anchored EU–Kazakhstan ties, both ambassadors emphasized a shift toward broader, forward-looking cooperation. Ambassador Vassilenko identified critical raw materials and green hydrogen as emerging areas of strategic importance, offering Kazakhstan opportunities to diversify its economy while supporting the EU’s green transition.

Kazakhstan, with its mineral wealth and renewable energy potential, is well-positioned to contribute to Europe’s supply chain resilience in clean technologies. The country’s abundant reserves of critical minerals—such as rare earths, copper, lithium, and cobalt—align with Europe’s need to diversify sources for its green transition. Coupled with growing investment in renewable energy and deepening cooperation with European partners, Kazakhstan stands out as a strategic supplier for clean-tech industries.

Both envoys stressed the importance of moving from basic resource exports toward long-term industrial partnerships — including local processing, infrastructure development, and regulatory alignment — as a means of ensuring mutual benefit.

Connectivity: The Middle Corridor and Infrastructure Links
Connectivity also features prominently. The Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, or “Middle Corridor,” is increasingly viewed as a viable overland route connecting China to Europe via Kazakhstan. Cargo volumes have risen, and both the EU and regional stakeholders are investing in capacity upgrades. The EU’s Global Gateway strategy includes a €12 billion commitment to infrastructure in Central Asia, covering transport, energy, and digital initiatives.

Connectivity was identified by both ambassadors as a strategic priority, with Vassilenko emphasizing the growing importance of the Middle Corridor and describing it as a key area for advancing regional integration and EU-Kazakhstan cooperation. Indeed, the EU–Kazakhstan collaboration now includes a dedicated Coordination Platform for the corridor’s development, aimed at strengthening transport links and infrastructure across the region.

As the ambassadors stressed, connectivity is not just logistical — it’s geopolitical. The Middle Corridor is becoming a central pillar of Kazakhstan’s role as a bridge between Asia and Europe.

Mobility: Negotiating Easier Access
Mobility remains a point of interest, particularly in light of Kazakhstan’s interest in visa facilitation with the EU. Negotiations are expected to begin in the fall of 2025 though outcomes will depend on alignment with EU visa policies and migration standards. Both ambassadors described greater people-to-people contact as a long-term investment in bilateral relations.

Strategic Context and Outlook
The EU’s broader engagement with Central Asia has gained urgency amid geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions. At the inaugural EU–Central Asia Summit in Samarkand in April 2025, leaders adopted the Samarkand Declaration, elevating relations to a strategic partnership and reaffirming respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity. The EU reaffirmed its “commitment to deeper cooperation in an evolving global and regional geopolitical landscape [and] upgrade relations between the European Union and Central Asia to a strategic partnership.”

As EU Ambassador Aleška Simkić noted in the recent dialogue: “We must continue to engage with geopolitics constructively. Both the EU and Kazakhstan share a commitment to the UN Charter and a peace-oriented agenda. I also see potential in regional integration. While the EU has its internal challenges, Central Asia is moving closer together. Kazakhstan plays a key role in that. Continued progress in regional cooperation offers significant opportunities.”

However, challenges remain. EU investment, while increasing, is still competing with a substantial Chinese and Russian economic presence. Additionally, practical barriers — ranging from infrastructure bottlenecks to regulatory fragmentation — could slow progress.

Nonetheless, there is cautious optimism. As the EU seeks to diversify its supply chains and develop more resilient partnerships, Kazakhstan has positioned itself as a relevant player. Whether that translates into durable, balanced cooperation will depend on sustained policy alignment, transparency, and mutual accountability.