Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev began a state visit to Kazakhstan on Monday with a series of high-level meetings and a significant policy shift: Baku is lifting all restrictions on the transit of goods to Armenia. The move, announced during joint talks with Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev in Astana, is one of the most concrete regional gestures since the end of the Second Karabakh War.

The visit began with an official welcoming ceremony at Akorda Presidential Palace in Astana, where Presidents Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and Ilham Aliyev reviewed an honor guard before holding bilateral talks and chairing the second meeting of the Kazakhstan–Azerbaijan Supreme Intergovernmental Council.

Speaking at a joint press briefing after the meeting, Aliyev confirmed that, “All restrictions on the transit of goods from Azerbaijan to Armenia and from third countries to Armenia through Azerbaijan have been lifted.” While no formal agreement was signed on Monday, the announcement is being viewed as a confidence-building measure at a moment of cautious diplomacy in the South Caucasus.

Tokayev welcomed the development and stressed the importance of expanding cooperation between Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan in key sectors such as transport and energy.

Ties on a Strategic Track

Aliyev’s visit comes as Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan are expanding cooperation in multiple areas, including rail, ports, digital infrastructure, and energy. Monday’s talks produced several new accords and project announcements, including commitments to expand freight flows along the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (Middle Corridor) – a logistics network connecting China to Europe via Central Asia, the Caspian Sea, and the South Caucasus. Since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine upended established overland trade routes, the corridor’s importance has surged, with Astana and Baku positioning themselves as key actors in a reconfigured Eurasian logistics network that bypasses Russian territory.

In his welcoming address, Tokayev framed Aliyev’s state visit as of “critically important significance for the further development of our strategic partnership.” Tokayev described the relationship as “allied in nature,” calling Azerbaijan “a regional power that has strengthened its authority on the international stage.” He emphasized that developing multifaceted cooperation “remains a priority” and highlighted trade, economic, and political partnership as key goals.

“Azerbaijan is a special country for Kazakhstan, a fraternal state,” Tokayev stated. “We are united by common historical roots, a rich spiritual and cultural heritage, and, ultimately, a shared mentality and outlook on developments. On this unshakable foundation, we are successfully developing our multifaceted cooperation.”

Aliyev, in turn, praised Kazakhstan’s ongoing political and economic reforms, saying his country “fully supports [Tokayev’s] course of modernization” and is aiming to “strengthen cooperation in all areas”

In a related development, Azerbaijan’s state energy firm SOCAR and Kazakhstan’s sovereign wealth fund Samruk-Kazyna are expected to deepen their collaboration in upstream energy projects and petrochemical exports, though no new energy deals were signed on Monday.

Transit Opening to Armenia: Why Now?

Aliyev’s announcement on transit restrictions – made in Astana, not Baku – was notable not just for its content, but its timing and setting.

Since the end of the 2020 Second Karabakh War and the more recent 2023 military operation that led to the full integration of Nagorno-Karabakh into Azerbaijan, the region has remained tense. Armenia has accused Azerbaijan of restricting transit and access, with Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan remarking that, “Azerbaijan wants the roads of Armenia to be usable for itself, but at the same time for Armenia to continue being blockaded.”

By publicly lifting transit restrictions, Baku appears to be signaling its readiness to normalize regional trade under specific conditions.

A Broader Regional Agenda

Beyond Armenia-related developments, the Supreme Interstate Council session reflected the expanding partnership between two states increasingly aligned on trade, connectivity, and diplomatic messaging. The two sides share strong cultural ties, and both are active members of the Organization of Turkic States, which held its 12th Summit in Gabala, Azerbaijan, on October 6–7, 2025.

At Monday’s meeting, the two presidents reviewed progress in energy, transport, and digital connectivity, highlighting cooperation in renewable energy and industrial modernization, and instructing their governments to accelerate work on a Trans-Caspian fiber-optic cable to enhance digital links between the two countries.

President Tokayev noted that bilateral trade turnover exceeded $550 million in 2024, adding that Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan aim to raise that figure to about $1 billion in the near future. In his speech, Aliyev stated that much of that expected growth will come from energy cooperation, transport, and logistics.

The Middle Corridor in Focus

Central to the talks was the Middle Corridor, which carried about 2.7 million tons in 2023 and 4.5 million tons in 2024, as traffic shifted away from traditional northern routes. To this end, the two leaders participated in a presentation of the “Middle Corridor Development” project, which included information about steps to increase the efficiency and competitiveness of the route. According to details presented at Akorda, freight currently moves from the Chinese border to Georgian ports in 15–18 days, and forecasts suggest cargo volumes along the Middle Corridor could triple by 2030. The briefing outlined measures to boost efficiency and competitiveness and further elevate the corridor’s role within the Eurasian transit network

Independent assessments have previously highlighted specific bottlenecks, including limited ferry capacity and unpredictable schedules on the Caspian crossing, port throughput constraints, border/customs frictions, and fragmented standards that slow transit.

The Middle Corridor Development project underscores ongoing joint work to raise capacity and efficiency. Concrete steps include financing and infrastructure upgrades. On September 30, 2025, the EBRD announced a €35 million loan with a prospective EU grant to expand container handling at Kazakhstan’s Port of Aktau.

A Calculated Signal

While the lifting of transit restrictions was the headline, Monday’s meetings pointed to a broader evolution: a deeper, more practical partnership between two energy-rich, transport-critical states at a time of geopolitical flux. Astana continues to cast itself as a neutral, multi-vector actor engaging with China, Russia, the EU, the U.S., and regional partners, while Baku sees Kazakhstan as a pivotal Central Asian gateway and a partner in east–west logistics.

The message from Astana – including the signal toward Yerevan – is that Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan intend to keep shaping the next phase of the Middle Corridor through targeted investments and policy coordination. How Armenia responds to Baku’s transit opening, and how quickly Middle Corridor upgrades ease bottlenecks, will determine whether 2025 ends with momentum toward a regional thaw or another period of stasis.