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Navigating Afghan-Pakistani Conflict: Central Asia’s Mediating Role in Regional Stability

Recently, there has been a significant increase in tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan, with both sides regularly exchanging accusations. In addition to this, border conflicts have become more frequent, with border crossings periodically closed. According to Modern Diplomacy, both countries are in a state of quite severe political conflict, and distrust and hostility from the Afghan population towards Pakistan is growing even though the "victory of the Taliban and the reincarnation of the Islamic Emirate... should have been a victory for Pakistan and strengthened its position in the region.” The confrontation between the two neighbors in South Asia is a source of concern for other countries in the region, especially for the Central Asian republics, which are increasingly acquiring the status of independent players in their dealings with Afghanistan. Due to their proximity, these republics to varying degrees link their development with a stable Afghanistan designed to become a bridge to South Asia. Negative dynamics in Afghan-Pakistani relations are a cause of much wringing of hands. Pakistan was among the first states to recognize the independence of the former Soviet Central Asian republics and has dynamic ties with them. Pakistan's trade turnover with the region is roughly $500 million annually, most of which comes from imports to Pakistan. The nations are linked by the Quadrilateral Traffic in Transit Agreement (QTTA), the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline project, the CASA-1000 energy project, and the Uzbekistan–Afghanistan–Pakistan Railway Project. The majority of these projects use Afghanistan as a bridge between Central Asia and Pakistan. In this regard, the countries of Central Asia are interested in a political situation which excludes confrontational approaches; none of them are interested in further destabilization in Afghanistan. In the Central Asian republics, there is a well-established understanding of Pakistan's exceptional and particularly important role in Afghanistan’s stability. Pakistan has a defining influence on security in Afghanistan and has historically been the most integrated in Afghan issues at the level of political and multi-ethnic conflicts. Pakistan is linked to its neighbor by historical and socio-cultural ties. In reality, however, a different story is emerging. At both a global and regional level, active measures out of Islamabad set to discredit the de facto Taliban-led government of Afghanistan have been observed. Islamabad has undertaken a robust information campaign, which has put forward an entrenched narrative about Afghanistan being one of the world’s major sources of terrorism. In this information war, Islamabad, being a fully-fledged member of the international community, has clear advantages and has used all available tools, including access to global platforms. Islamabad also has access to specialized committees and departments of the UN, which regularly prepare reports on the situation in Afghanistan. Unsurprisingly, it has used these to include ideas favorable its' position on the world stage. Acting as a source of information, Islamabad has presented its point of view, which the international community has largely accepted as objective information. However, it does not provide specific data, such as the size of terrorist groups or the location of their training camps....

Pakistan Joins Transport Corridor Between Indian Ocean and Eastern Europe

Uzbekistan’s Ministry of Transport has announced that Pakistan has officially joined the memorandum of understanding on establishing and developing the international transport corridor "Belarus–Russia–Kazakhstan–Uzbekistan–Afghanistan–Pakistan–Indian Ocean." The Pakistani Ministry of Communications signed this memorandum on September 18. The process of creating this multimodal transport corridor began in August 2022, at a meeting between the Uzbek government and the Eurasian Economic Commission – the governing body of the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union that also includes Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan. In November 2023, the transport ministries of Russia, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan signed a memorandum of understanding, launching the project's active phase of work. The group's first meeting on developing the proposed multimodal transport corridor was held in April 2024 in Termez, Uzbekistan. During that meeting, Belarus joined the memorandum, while Afghanistan and Pakistan announced the beginning of internal procedures for joining the project. At that meeting, a roadmap was signed, including specific plans for the development of cargo transportation, analysis of cargo flows, introduction of electronic digital documents, and optimization of customs procedures. The participating countries expect that the new corridor will become an important link in Eurasia's transport system, providing convenient and efficient routes for the transit of goods and strengthening economic cooperation.

Work Begins on Afghan Section of the TAPI Gas Pipeline

Turkmenistan and Afghanistan have now begun construction of the Afghan section of the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) natural gas pipeline. To mark the launch of work on the pipeline’s Serhetabat-Herat section, Chairman of the Halk Maslahaty (People’s Council) of Turkmenistan, Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov, and Mullah Mohammad Hassan Akhund, the Prime Minister of the Taliban-led Afghan government, attended a ceremony  at a checkpoint on the Turkmen-Afghan border on September 11. The staged installation of the TAPI pipeline, already completed in Turkmenistan, will eventually transfer 33 billion cubic meters of Turkmen natural gas annually to Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India. At an estimated cost of $10 billion, the TAPI pipeline will span 1,814 kilometers.  With 816 kilometers running through Afghanistan, the project will meet the country's gas needs, generating around $450 million in annual transit fees, before continuing on to Quetta and Multan in Pakistan and Fazilka in India. Gas-rich Turkmenistan currently exports natural gas to China and Russia but once completed, the TAPI project will enable the country to diversify its export routes and help realize far-reaching plans to transport its gas across the Caspian Sea to Azerbaijan, Turkey, and Europe. Mullah Mohammad Hassan Akhund stated that the commencement of work on the TAPI project on Afghan soil would strengthen relations between Afghanistan and Turkmenistan, whilst speaking from Ashgabat via videoconferencing, Turkmenistan President Serdar Berdimuhamedov, announced, "The commencement of the TAPI project [on the Afghan territory] and other projects is beneficial not only for Afghanistan but also for the countries in the region." In addition to TAPI, the ceremony opened a 177-meter-long railway bridge at the Turkmen-Afghan border on Serhetabat-Turgundi railroad, launched the construction of the Serhetabat-Herat (Afghanistan) fiber-optic communication line, a warehouse complex in the dry port of the Turgundi railway station at the Turkmen-Afghan border, and the Turgundi-Sanabar section of the Turgundi-Herat railway. The event also marked the commission of the Nur-el-Jahad power plant in Afghanistan's Herat province,  as part of the first phase of the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan (TAP) power transmission line project.

Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Afghanistan Plan New Railway Line

On July 20, government representatives from Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Afghanistan gathered in Aktau, Kazakhstan, to discuss the construction of a new railway line running from the Turkmenistan border through Afghanistan to Pakistan via Turgundi—Herat—Kandahar—Spin Buldak, The joint implementation of the project was proposed by head of the Agency for Transport and Communications of Turkmenistan, Mammetkhan Chakyev, who also announced that Turkmenistan and the Afghan side had already agreed  to create a logistics centre in Turgundi, a border town in northern Herat Province of Afghanistan.  Construction is due to commence shortly and once in operation, will provide facilities for the transhipment of grain, rail containers, and other cargo. Kazakhstan's invitation to participate in the project rests on its production of high-quality railway tracks and as stated by Chakyev, “Turgundi-Herat is not only the construction of a railway but also the further development of freight traffic and the attraction of goods in this direction. With the participation of the Kazakh side, we can significantly increase the attractiveness of this corridor." Afghan representatives stating their readiness to forward the transport of goods from Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan to Pakistan, highlighted the effectiveness of the route for all concerned as well as the benefits it afforded to importing Chinese goods through Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. Kazakhstan’s Deputy Prime Minister Serik Zhumangarin announced his support for Turkmenistan's proposal for the joint construction of the new railway route and its provision of a western corridor from Afghanistan to Pakistan and India.

Pakistan Can Become a Transport Hub for Central Asian Countries

The Prime Minister of Pakistan, Shahbaz Sharif has chosen Tajikistan for his first foreign visit after being re-elected as the head of government. On July 2, he will hold talks with Tajik President Emomali Rahmon in Dushanbe, before traveling with him to the SCO summit in Astana. The head of Tajikistan and Sharif are expected to discuss the implementation of agreements reached during Rahmon's visit to Pakistan two years ago. Pakistan's capital, Islamabad, is interested in speeding up the start of the CASA-1000 energy project and expanding cooperation in transport and security. In exchange, Tajikistan is seeking access to Pakistan’s ports of Karachi and Gwadar. In December 2022, Rahmon visited Islamabad, where eight documents were signed at the end of negotiations with Sharif. “The fact is that Tajikistan’s intelligence services have historically not had warm relations with Pakistan, whose intelligence services have supported various militant groups in Afghanistan. But times are changing. In addition, it should be noted that today, Pakistan is closely cooperating with China economically and politically in the same way that active cooperation between China and Dushanbe is taking place,” said Alexander Vorobyov, a researcher at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences and head of the Center for Public Diplomacy and World Policy Analysis. According to Vorobyov, improving relations between Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, whose authorities are actively promoting a project to create the Trans-Afghan railway “Termez–Mazar-i–Sharif–Kabul—Peshawar,” will help improve Tajikistan’s transport connectivity with the outside world and offer the possibility of access to South Asia. The shortest route from Tajikistan to the sea passes through Afghanistan to Pakistan. It is approximately 2,720 kilometers from Dushanbe to Karachi or Gwadar, whilst it is 3,400 kilometers to the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas in the Strait of Hormuz. Tajikistan is separated from Pakistan by the Wakhan Corridor, a narrow strip of territory in the Badakhshan province of Afghanistan. This corridor is about 350 kilometers long. Experts believe that if Afghanistan's stability and security can be ensured, then Pakistan can become a transport hub for the countries of Central Asia. Pakistan's interest in Central Asian meanwhile, lies in energy resources, of which it is desperately short. To access them, the Pakistani government is promoting several major transit projects in the region that will open access to global markets and trade opportunities for the region's countries. However, as Hina Rabbani Khar, who served as Pakistan's deputy foreign minister in February 2023, said, the situation in Afghanistan is preventing Pakistan from realizing its potential in relations with Central Asia. In particular, the Central Asia-South Asia-1000 (CASA-1000) project to transmit electricity from Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan to Afghanistan and Pakistan still needs to be completed. The World Bank stopped financing the project after the Taliban came to power. Following an appeal by the project's participants, implementation of CASA-1000 was resumed in May 2024 with the financial support of the World Bank. In recent years, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan have required additional kilowatts, so the completion date of the construction still...

Mass Brawl Between Citizens of Pakistan and Bangladesh Reported in Bishkek

Bishkek police have detained 36 foreigners after a mass brawl, as reported by the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Kyrgyz Republic. According to law enforcement, on June 11th, a mass brawl was reported between Pakistani and Bangladeshi citizens after a verbal altercation, following which participants involved in the scuffle were taken to a police station to clarify the incident's circumstances. Administrative protocols were drawn up for 16 foreigners who violated the rules of residence in Kyrgyzstan. One of the participants in the brawl was found guilty under the article “Petty Hooliganism.” The court fined him 5,500 KGS ($60). Two more people were arrested for three days for being in a state of alcoholic intoxication. TCA previously reported that on May 17th, riots occurred in the capital of Kyrgyzstan, provoked by a conflict between residents and medical students from abroad. Since these tragic events, the authorities have been employing a dual approach of attempting to sooth relations abroad whilst conducting raids on places where foreigners reside.