Four out of the five Central Asian countries are experiencing fertility declines, with the exception being Uzbekistan, where the total fertility rate (TFR) – the average number of children born to one woman in her lifetime – continues to rise.
According to analytical data from Finprom.kz, in 2023, Uzbekistan’s TFR was 3.4, the highest in the region. Tajikistan followed with a ratio of 3.1, Kazakhstan at 3.0, and Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan at 2.7 each.
In a global context, Central Asia’s fertility rates are still higher than average. According to OurWorldinData, the world TFR in 2023 was 2.3. By comparison, countries like the U.S., India, and China had rates between 1.2 and 2.2, while in some African countries such as Somalia or Niger, TFR exceeded 6.
In absolute numbers, Uzbekistan led the region in births with 962,000 newborns in 2023 – a 14.3% increase from 2020. Kazakhstan ranked second with 388,400 births, although its birth rate continued to decline after a pandemic-era baby boom. The highest TFR per 1,000 people was also recorded in Uzbekistan (26.4), followed by Tajikistan (24.6) and Kazakhstan (19.5), where births have fallen for the second consecutive year.
Despite declining fertility rates, Central Asia’s population is growing steadily. The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) projects the region’s population to reach 80 million in 2025, marking a 2.2 million increase since 2020. Uzbekistan remains the most populous nation, accounting for 45.2% of the region’s total population at 36.9 million, followed by Kazakhstan (20.3 million), Turkmenistan (8.1 million), and Kyrgyzstan (8.9 million).
Population growth in the region is driven by natural increases, with annual rates of 2.5% in Uzbekistan, 1.9% in Tajikistan, 1.5% in Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, and 1.4% in Kyrgyzstan. These figures reflect stable demographic dynamics across Central Asia.
