The current geopolitical turbulence presents Afghanistan and the countries of Central Asia with serious challenges. After the Taliban’s return to power in 2021, Afghanistan found itself in a state of deep economic crisis, and its continued stability once again depends on external assistance.
However, with the shifting global order, traditional donors such as the U.S. and the European Union are scaling back their involvement in Afghan affairs, while new sources of support remain uncertain. This creates significant risks for the countries of the region, which must find ways to minimize the consequences of Afghanistan’s crisis and ensure their own security.
Historical context: dependence through the ages
Afghanistan has always been dependent on external sources of income. This historical context was explored by Ali Nuriyev (historian, blogger, and researcher of the Ottoman world) in his article for TRT, “Afghanistan: The Graveyard of Empires or a Rentier State?”
“As flattering as it may be for Afghans to have a reputation as [a nation that has kept its independence despite incursions from Great Powers], everything comes at a price, including Afghanistan’s independence”.
Nuriyev provides a detailed analysis showing that since the founding of modern Afghanistan in the 18th century by Ahmad Shah Durrani, the country has built its economy and politics on external sources of income. Durrani financed his campaigns through raids on India, while his successors received subsidies from the British in exchange for maintaining neutrality in the “Great Game” between the British Empire and Russia.
Later, in the 20th century, Afghanistan skillfully played on the rivalry between the USSR and the U.S., securing billions of dollars for infrastructure, education, and military modernization. By the 1970s, two-thirds of the country’s state budget came from foreign aid.
Even after the Soviet withdrawal in 1989 and the overthrow of the Taliban regime in 2001, Afghanistan continued to rely on external support. The governments of Hamid Karzai and Ashraf Ghani survived primarily due to funding from the United States and its allies.
Today, following the Taliban’s return to power in 2021, Afghanistan is once again searching for new sources of income. Sanctions and frozen assets have forced the Taliban to seek support from China, Russia, and other nations, further proving that the country’s reliance on foreign aid remains unchanged.
This is the historical reality: Afghanistan is a state that, for centuries, has survived thanks to external resources. Its independence has always been closely tied to its ability to extract benefits from the geopolitical maneuvers of great powers.
In the present day, this historical context can be interpreted in different ways. However, one fact remains clear, today’s geopolitical turbulence is already having a negative impact on Afghanistan.
Afghanistan’s adaptation
As the global order shifts, the key players on the “Afghan track” are adjusting their strategies toward Afghanistan, exacerbating the country’s economic crisis.
United States – For Afghanistan, the new realities in the U.S. mean reduced aid and frozen assets. The U.S., which had long been Afghanistan’s primary donor, is unlikely to increase financial support soon. Following the withdrawal of troops and the Taliban’s return to power, Washington has reassessed its policy toward Kabul, focusing on diplomatic pressure and economic sanctions. Now, even American humanitarian assistance through international organizations is at risk. Several Western donor agencies have already announced the cessation of their activities in Afghanistan due to a lack of funding.
The first steps taken by the new administration in Washington indicate that, amid geopolitical competition with China and Russia, it will maintain an interest in the region but act cautiously, avoiding major financial commitments. As a result, Afghanistan remains on the strategic periphery of U.S. foreign policy.
European Union – Characterized by internal challenges and waning interest in Afghanistan. EU countries are grappling with growing social and political tensions related to inflation, climate change, and the rise of populist movements. It is evident that Brussels will adopt a more pragmatic and frugal approach in the future, prioritizing its influence in the Balkans, Eastern Europe, and the Indo-Pacific region. This leaves fewer opportunities for active involvement in resolving the Afghan crisis.
Overall, as noted in the Munich Security Conference report, major global actors, including the U.S., China, the EU, Russia, India, and Japan, are all seeking to expand their influence, making it difficult to establish coordinated responses to global challenges.
Thus, modern geopolitics places Afghanistan in an extremely difficult position, with the consequences being felt most acutely in Central Asia.
Afghanistan remains a hostage to its historical model of dependence on external resources, an ‘inheritance’ that continues to shape the region’s future.
Challenges for the countries of the region
It may be time for the Central Asian republics to rethink Afghanistan’s model of dependence and seek new pathways to their own stability and development.
If not, ongoing turbulence could pose serious threats to the region. Worsening poverty, hunger, destabilization, and the potential rise of extremism in Afghanistan could trigger a new wave of refugees, increase transnational crime, and negatively impact Central Asian security.
With traditional donors reassessing their involvement, Central Asian states face significant risks. They must consolidate efforts and develop new approaches to humanitarian and economic support for Afghanistan to ensure regional security and stability.
It is evident that regional countries must seek alternative solutions. While they cannot fully replace major donors like the U.S. and the EU, they must establish a joint mechanism for minimal but stable humanitarian and economic assistance to Afghanistan. This mechanism could include:
- Resource Consolidation: Establishing a regional fund, such as CentralAsiaAid or CA-Unity, for humanitarian aid and infrastructure support in Afghanistan. This initiative could involve international organizations, foreign governments, regional alliances, and the private sector. New donors such as China, Japan, India, the Gulf monarchies, and Southeast Asian nations could play a growing role.
“Central Asia continues to successfully attract financial resources. Programs from international organizations such as the World Bank, IMF, Asian Development Bank, and Islamic Development Bank play a crucial role in concessional financing” — Evgeny Vinokurov, Chief Economist of the Eurasian Development Bank
- Diplomatic Engagement: Coordinating efforts on the international stage to draw attention to regional challenges and secure new sources of funding.
- Security and Migration: Developing joint programs to strengthen border security, prevent radicalization, and manage migration flows.
- Economic Cooperation: Expanding trade and economic ties with Afghanistan to help stabilize its economy and reduce reliance on foreign aid.
Additionally, the role of major geopolitical players, such as China and Russia, must be considered, as they could contribute to regional stability.
Thus, Afghanistan remains not only a “rentier state” but also a key element of regional security. The consolidation of Central Asian efforts and the development of new approaches to the Afghan crisis are not just matters of humanitarian aid but strategic imperatives for ensuring long-term stability and security.
For the five Central Asian countries, assisting Afghanistan is not merely a formal obligation — it is a rational choice and an objective necessity in the absence of alternatives. Geopolitically, they have the greatest interest in Afghanistan’s stability.
Of course, Central Asia alone cannot fully fill the security vacuum in Afghanistan, even with support from key stakeholders like China, Russia, India, Turkey, and the Gulf states. However, through pragmatic engagement, economic cooperation, and regional integration, Central Asian countries can mitigate threats and contribute to Afghanistan’s stabilization, thus ultimately strengthening security for the entire region.
New motivation for Central Asian countries
The conditions outlined above can also serve as additional motivation for deeper integration among Central Asian nations. Given the unpredictable nature of current developments, these countries must enhance their cooperation and establish a new model of regional collaboration.
With decreasing attention from the U.S. and the EU, alongside intensifying global power competition, a vacuum has emerged, one that Central Asian states can leverage to strengthen their role in international affairs.
Incorporating Afghanistan into regional economic and infrastructure projects would not only contribute to stabilizing the country but also provide further incentives for Central Asian integration. This includes:
- Strengthening Economic Ties: Developing new transportation and energy corridors to enhance connectivity and trade.
- Joint Humanitarian Efforts: Pooling resources to address the socio-economic consequences of the crisis.
- Political Convergence: Formulating a unified stance in international relations to amplify regional influence.
Today’s challenges act as a powerful catalyst for greater unity among Central Asian nations. They have a unique opportunity to lay the foundation for a new system of regional relations, with Afghanistan playing a central role. This would not only reintegrate Afghanistan into the global system but also ensure long-term security and development for the entire region.
Thus, in this shifting geopolitical landscape, Central Asia has the potential not only to mitigate risks but also to turn them into opportunities, enhancing internal stability and bolstering its influence on the world stage.
