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Peace Following Kyrgyz-Tajik Clashes Allows Hydro Engineers to Visit Tajikistan

For the first time since the start of armed clashes on the Kyrgyz-Tajik border, business cooperation between the two countries has begun to return. Kyrgyz Energy Minister Taalaibek Ibrayev and his delegation recently visited a pair of Tajikistan's energy facilities, the Rogun and Nurek hydroelectric power plants (HPP), according to the press service of the Kyrgyz Ministry of Energy. Tajikistan's Deputy Minister for Energy Halmukhamadzoda Sobron showed Kyrgyz colleagues how the Rogun HPP is being built, as well as some special underground facilities and tunnels under the plant. Sobron described problems faced by Tajik hydro construction workers when using construction equipment at the site, and detailed the integrated stage-by-stage approach to building the main structures of the hydropower plant. "More than 15,000 hydro construction workers are involved in the construction of the Rogun HPP, more than 300,000 machines and equipment are operated, and skillful planning allows dozens of contracting companies to work simultaneously," Tajik power engineers emphasized. The Kyrgyz side noted that the exchange of experience in the construction of such grandiose facilities will be useful in the construction of Kambar-Ata HPP-1 in Kyrgyzstan. During the three-day visit, Kyrgyz power engineers also visited plants responsible for the production of hydromechanical equipment and for the production of electrical equipment. During the meetings it was emphasized that after the border issue is resolved, the sides are ready to cooperate with each other again on all issues. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are usually connected by high-voltage power lines, which play an important role in the regular supply of electricity to local residents living in the border areas. However, these lines are now out of operation. The problem with the border between the two countries arose after the collapse of the USSR. Essentially both parties claimed land that's rich in water resources, as the issue of agricultural irrigation is very relevant in the arid region. More than 30 years have passed since then, and the parties still cannot agree on the disputed territories. Because of this, conflicts periodically arise between citizens of border villages -- as well as residents of enclaves and border guards of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan -- including with the use of heavy weaponry. The last such conflict took place in the Batken region of Kyrgyzstan and Sughd region of Tajikistan in September 2022 -- at which time there were hundreds of deaths on both sides and civilian infrastructure was destroyed. Since May 2021, transportation by land or air between the countries remains closed. Trade and all business contacts have been suspended. To date, the two countries have agreed to demarcate about 90% of the disputed territories. Rogun HPP is a hydroelectric power plant under construction on the Vakhsh River. It is the largest HPP in Central Asia. Construction of Rogun HPP began in the 1970s, but in the 1990s work was stopped due to the collapse of the Soviet Union and the outbreak of civil war in Tajikistan. Construction resumed only in 2010 with the support of the World Bank. The first...

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The Cost of Bread and Flour in Turkmenistan is Steeply Rising

According to local media, bread and flour are becoming much more expensive in Turkmenistan’s state stores. The price of a kilogram of flour is being quoted at 3.5 manat ($1 at the state rate or $0.18 at the black market rate), instead of the one manat ($0.30 at the state rate or $0.05 at the black market rate) previously. Similarly, the cost of a loaf of bread has increased to 2.5 manats ($0.72 or $0.13) from one manat ($0.3 or $0.05). The food ration limit has stayed the same despite the price increases: one person can still only purchase three loaves of bread and five kilograms of flour. In Turkmenistan, state and private stores have entirely different prices. Private stores offer everything, but many families often cannot afford the goods. Although the prices in state stores are significantly lower, scarcity is a common issue, and there's a rationing quota that caps the quantity of goods sold to each individual. Additionally, lines frequently form in state stores because of the influx of customers looking to purchase bread at reduced prices. This occasionally leads to sad consequences; according to Turkmenistan’s domestic mass media, a woman was killed in a fight in the Tashkhovuz region last summer while purchasing subsidized flour. People in Turkmenistan prefer to purchase flour imported from Kazakhstan over local flour found in state stores, in part due to the country's growing demand for flour and bakery products, according to a report by Tukrman News. For instance, people in the Maryam region claim that Kazakh flour costs just slightly more and is of higher quality. A 50-kilogram bag of local flour costs at least 180 manat ($51.50), while the price of Kazakh flour is 200 manat ($60.10). However, according to some shoppers, Turkmen flour smells bad and looks gray in color. It is not available in infinite quantities: there is still a five-kilogram per person ration quota in place. According to people cited by Turkmen news, in addition to the price of bread and flour, prices for fertilizers, irrigation water and leases for the use of state equipment have increased several times. Unfortunately, farmers who rent land from the government aren't receiving any additional income from the increase in retail purchase prices.

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Central Asians Continue Working in South Korea Despite Legal Issues

The authorities in the Republic of Korea have offered an option to citizens of Uzbekistan who are in the country illegally to return home without facing legal repercussions. To do this, they must voluntarily leave South Korea by February 29th to avoid being subject to deportation rules and be able to return legally in the future. According to the Agency for External Labor Migration of Uzbekistan, illegal migrants can apply for voluntary departure with the immigration service of Korea up until three working days before the expected date of departure. Applicants need to present their passport and an airline ticket. The service will then issue the migrant an identity card, with which Uzbekistani nationals will be able to return to their home country without hindrance. South Korea is one of the most popular destinations for Uzbeks, both for work and studies, with Uzbeks occupy fifth place by size of foreign diaspora in the country and numbering more than 69,000. Among them are a large number who are in Korea illegally; according to this indicator, Uzbekistan ranks third. The most popular scheme involves obtaining a D-4 visa, which is granted to foreign citizens who study the Korean language. Having received this and reached the Korean peninsula, citizens of Uzbekistan then start working and stay in the country illegally. In recent years, the Government of Uzbekistan has established regulations for legal and safe labor migration to South Korea, and at the start of 2024, the republic announced its intention to attract 100,000 Uzbeks to work in the country. Workers are required in sectors such as manufacturing, agriculture, services, and construction. To enter the South Korean workforce legally, Uzbeks need to pass language qualification exams and interviews. Labor migration to South Korea is also well established in neighboring Kyrgyzstan. Over the past 16 years, 5,000 Kyrgyz have been employed. Citizens of Kyrgyzstan can work there under a contract for four years and nine months, and receive more $2,000 per month. This year, Korea has allocated a quota for labor migrants in the amount of 3,300 people - an increase of 18% on 2023. By contrast, the issue of labor migration to South Korea from Kazakhstan is still at the negotiation stage. If the parties reach an agreement, Kazakhs will be able to work in Korea for three years - provided they successfully pass the language and professional tests. However, the lack of an agreement does not stop those who wish to earn money in Korea: according to the immigration service of Korea, since the beginning of 2023 about 7,000 Kazakh citizens have been staying in the country without labor visas. The number of companies interested in hiring illegal migrants in South Korea is constantly expanding for one simple reason: it's profitable. Migrants are not protected in any way in case of labor disputes, and they earn much lower wages than legal workers. Accordingly, the number of migrants who die working in dangerous industries is also increasing. From 2019 to 2022 alone, 61 Kazakh...

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Kyrgyzstan’s Kumtor Begins Underground Gold Mining

The Cabinet of Ministers of Kyrgyzstan has said that underground gold mining at Kumtor can provide hundreds of millions of additional dollars to the country's budget. The deputy head of the Kyrgyz Government, Adylbek Kasymaliev, presided over a ceremony marking the beginning of work at the mine. The Kumtor deposit is one of the ten largest gold deposits in the world. The mine is located in the Issyk-Kol region in the permafrost zone at an altitude of 4,000 meters above sea level. Revenues from Kumtor account for roughly one-third of the state budget in Kyrgyzstan, with the mine producing about 17 tons of gold per year. "The feasibility study of the underground gold mining project developed by specialists speaks about its economic efficiency. According to preliminary data, with the help of an underground mining method, it will be possible to get 115 tons of gold. Taking into account the precious metal mined at the [site] by the open-pit method, this is a big step forward," said Almazbek Baryktabasov, President of the Kumtor Gold Company. Mining underground will help the company reach gold of a higher-grade ore, he said, and as a result, the company will be able to increase its tax payments. Until its nationalization in 2021, the Kumtor mine was owned by Canadian company, Centerra Gold. Earlier, the Canadian owners tried to extract gold through shafts. However, gold prices did not render this profitable, as the shaft method is much more expensive than the open-pit mining. Over the past ten years, however, the price of an ounce of gold has risen by more than $700 and is currently trading at just over $2,000. Before Kumtor was expropriated, Centerra Gold spent approximately $180 million dollars on research related to underground mining. Today, the authorities have allocated an additional mining site next to the one where gold ore is already being extracted. According to some reports, the new site contains a denser concentration of the precious metal per unit of ore. Currently, at Kumtor's open-pit mine, it takes one ton of processed ore and more than 40 tons of extracted waste rock to produce 5-7 grams of gold. Underground mining could double that yield. Furthermore, underground mining is not as environmentally damaging as open-pit mining. For example, one of Kumtor's main environmental concerns is the destruction of glaciers which literally hang over the edge of the open pit.

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EDB Reports Economic Growth in Three Central Asian Countries

The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) has released the latest Macroeconomic Review for its six member states — Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, and Tajikistan. In the face of a challenging external economic environment, the EDB region saw a strong recovery in 2023, with the aggregate GDP of the six nations increasing by almost 4%. According to EDB analysts, this growth was propelled by internal drivers such as robust consumer and investment demand, as well as effective adjustments in production to accommodate changing operating conditions. In Central Asia, Kazakhstan’s economy showed particularly robust growth, surpassing 5% by the end of 2023, largely due to government programs aimed at unlocking the country’s investment potential. Investment and trade increased by 13.7% and 11.3% respectively over the year. Inflation in Kazakhstan continued to decline, with the year-on-year inflation rate dropping from 9.8% in 2023 to 9.5% in January 2024, laying the groundwork for further monetary policy easing. Kyrgyzstan's GDP grew by 6.2% in 2023, supported by stronger consumer demand and increased investment activity. Inflation in the country halved to 7.3% year-on-year in 2023, but the National Bank kept its discount rate unchanged at 13% per annum due to persistent pro-inflationary risks. Furthermore, abnormally cold weather in December-January 2022-23 contributed to an increase in production from the energy sector. However, there are factors that still hinder the pace of growth for businesses in the country. Against a backdrop of persistent, pro-inflationary risks, the National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic is maintaining its base lending rate at 13 percent per annum to help control price growth. "We believe that domestic demand will weaken against the backdrop of constraining monetary policy conditions and the projected state budget surplus. According to our estimates, GDP will grow by 4.5 percent in 2024," EDB analysts report. For its part, the Ministry of Economy and Commerce of Kyrgyzstan said that the greatest contribution to GDP growth was made by industrial production. According to the department, the economy received an additional boost due to an increase in the output of basic metals. As has been reported previously, Kyrgyz gold miners have exported a record amount of gold in recent years. In Tajikistan, strong domestic demand and increased exports drove an 8.3% GDP growth in 2023. Inflation declined to 3.8% year-on-year at the end of 2023, close to the lower bound of the National Bank’s target range. Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan were not included in the report as they aren't EDB member countries. However, according to local media reports, they also showed strong growth at the end of 2023. The Uzbek economy grew by 6 percent, mainly due to growth in industry and increased agricultural output in agriculture. Turkmenistan's GDP in 2023 showed growth of 6.3 percent -- mainly due to growth in the economic spheres of trade, industrial production and agriculture. According to international organizations, Turkmenistan's GDP has almost doubled in the last five years to $82 billion from $46.5 billion. Turkmen authorities are actively investing in the oil & gas sector, which...

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What to Expect from Central Asian Economies in 2024

The pandemic dealt a major blow to the global economy and to the economies of Central Asia in particular, which, despite some domestic production, rely on imports for a significant share (in monetary terms) of their consumption. The Russia-Ukraine war acted as an economic shock to these economies, which had yet to recover from the damage done by Covid. While there is considerable intra-regional potential in terms of manufacturing and trade, most of the imports into Central Asia come from China, Turkey and Europe. At the same time, transnational corporations in Russia account for almost half of Central Asian demand for consumer goods. In 2022, Central Asian countries began to reconfigure their supply chains to comply with sanctions. However, since almost half of the Russian economy was integrated with international corporations and supplied Central Asia, severing these trade links proved almost impossible. This is clearly reflected in the statistics for 2023, where almost all Central Asian countries saw re-exports of Western goods to Russia increase by tens or hundreds of times. In terms of information and statistics, the most open countries of the region are Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan. Uzbekistan is quickly catching up, with government agencies launching websites where a significant amount of data can be accessed, both about the economy and the country as a whole. Economic indicators for Central Asian countries in 2023 Countries (alphabetical order) GDP (in $ bln)* Growth, y-o-y Inflation, y-o-y Kazakhstan 237.00 5.1% 9.80% Kyrgyzstan 11.90 6.2% 7.30% Tajikistan 11.36 8.3% 3.80% Turkmenistan 60.10 6.3% 5.90% Uzbekistan 90.80 6.0% 8.77% * Approximations Excluding Kazakhstan, the region's largest economy (though still resource-based), whose GDP is larger than the other four countries’ combined, Central Asia can be characterized as a low-income region. With average wages in a range of $250–400 per month, the countries rely heavily on trade (imports) for food, clothing, and basic goods. No country in the region is fully self-sufficient in terms of producing consumer goods, which, given the complex logistics, poses a challenge during swings in markets or geopolitical instability. Still, the last five years have been favorable for the region: there have been fewer territorial disputes and border conflicts, while politicians in all five countries share the view that the C5 and C5+ formats can be an effective tool to develop intra-regional ties and a common market. Last year, the five presidents from the region met with the leaders of China, Russia and the United States. In 2023, the countries fully recovered from the pandemic downturn, and each economy grew in annual terms. Due to its high base ($200+ billion GDP), Kazakhstan turned in the lowest growth at 5.1%. Its economy is driven mainly by resource extraction, metallurgy and agriculture. Given its size – an area of 2.7 million square kilometers – logistics is a big challenge for doing business in the country. Last year, according to preliminary data, Kazakhstan produced 90 million tons of oil, with exports mostly heading to Russia’s Novorossiysk port through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC). Kazakh...