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Kazakhstan and Serbia Strengthen Ties Despite Different Geopolitical Paths

Serbian President Vucic (54) might physically resemble Kazakh leader Kassym-Jomart Tokayev (71), but the geopolitical positions of Sebia and Kazakhstan could not be more different. While the Balkan nation – a European Union candidate since 2012 – remains in the EU’s “eternal waiting room”, the Central Asian country – a member of the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union – seems to have found a delicate balance between Russia, China, and the West. Those differences, however, have not prevented Serbia and Kazakhstan from strengthening their bilateral ties. Over the past six months, the two countries have been actively preparing for Tokayev’s trip to Serbia. This year, he spoke by phone with Vucic twice, while various Serbian and Kazakh officials held several meetings. On November 18-19, Tokayev finally visited the Southeastern European nation, where he met with his Serbian counterpart. According to the Kazakh leader, they discussed strengthening trade and economic relations and bilateral partnerships between the two nations. “It is essential that we develop cooperation. We had constructive talks and reached important deals,” Tokayev stressed. During his visit to the Balkan country, Serbian and Kazakh ministers signed several bilateral agreements. One of them is a 2025 plan on military cooperation. It is, therefore, no surprise that, following the talks in Belgrade, Vucic and Tokayev attended an exhibition of arms and military equipment at the Batajnica military airport near the Serbian capital. Indeed, military ties seem to be an important aspect of the Serbian-Kazakh relationship. Back in 2017, the two nations signed a memorandum of understanding in the field of military-technical collaboration. Six years later, in November 2023, Kazakhstan and Serbia inked intergovernmental agreements on military-technical cooperation, while in June of this year Serbian and Kazakh defense ministers discussed in Astana military relations between the two countries. Also, in September, Roman Vassilenko, Kazakhstan’s Deputy Foreign Minister, announced that Belgrade and Astana plan то expand cooperation in the defense industry. It remains to be seen how Moscow – Astana’s nominal ally in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) – will react to Kazakhstan’s ambitions to deepen military ties with Serbia – a nominally neutral country that has indirectly supplied Ukraine with $885 million worth of weapons. Despite being in different geopolitical positions, Serbia and Kazakhstan seem to share the same approach regarding Ukraine. Both nations support the Eastern European country’s territorial integrity, while trying to preserve relatively good relations with the Kremlin. At the same time, they support each other’s territorial integrity, which is particularly important for Serbia given that Kazakhstan does not recognize the 2008 unilateral independence of Kosovo. In 2022, sitting next to Russian President Vladimir Putin, Tokayev said that if the right to self-determination is put into practice worldwide, then there will be over 600 countries instead of the 193 states which are currently members of the United Nations. “For this reason, we do not recognize either Taiwan, or Kosovo, or South Ossetia, or Abkhazia… This principle will also be applied to quasi-state territories, which, in our opinion, are Lugansk and...

Caspian Sea Water Decline Requires Urgent Action, Says UNEP Chief

By the end of this century, the water levels of the Caspian Sea could drop by up to 18 meters, a decline that would devastate ecosystems and species, threaten livelihoods, and jeopardize food security and regional stability. Inger Andersen, Under-Secretary-General of the United Nations and Executive Director of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), highlighted this concern during the event, “Caspian Sea Water Decline in Light of Climate Change” at COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, on November 18. According to Andersen, the Caspian Sea, the largest enclosed body of water on Earth, “is under siege from the triple planetary crisis: the crisis of climate change, the crisis of nature, land and biodiversity loss, and the crisis of pollution and waste.” Andersen warned that without urgent action, this environmental and human crisis may result in as many as five million people being displaced from the Caspian basin by the middle of the century. [caption id="attachment_25708" align="aligncenter" width="722"] Inger Andersun; image: UNEP[/caption] The UNEP chief mentioned the impacts of the Caspian crisis: declining fisheries, salinization threatening agriculture, and the critically endangered Caspian seal — a species found nowhere else on Earth — facing extinction. Andersen emphasized the critical importance of the Tehran Convention — “the cornerstone for regional cooperation on the Caspian Sea.” The Framework Convention for the Protection of the Marine Environment of the Caspian Sea (Tehran Convention) was signed by the five Caspian littoral states — Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Turkmenistan — in 2003 and entered into force in August 2006 after being ratified by all five governments. [caption id="attachment_25706" align="aligncenter" width="2560"] Aktau, Kazakhstan; image: TCA, Ola Fiedorczuk[/caption] The Tehran Convention “provides a platform to align our efforts, to unite science and policy, and to prioritize sustainable development across this unique region. As the interim Secretariat of the Tehran Convention, UNEP is proud to support these vital efforts and remains firm in its commitment to providing technical expertise, fostering collaboration, and supporting innovative financing mechanisms to address this urgent challenge,” said Andersen, emphasizing that robust monitoring and predictive models are essential to understanding and managing the drivers of Caspian water level changes. “Science must inform every decision we take, whether on climate adaptation, biodiversity protection or pollution control,” Andersen stated, calling for regional cooperation to be strengthened. “The challenges the Caspian faces transcend borders. Solutions must do the same. Through trans-boundary collaboration, we can craft integrated solutions that safeguard ecosystems, support livelihoods, and promote equitable economic growth,” she stated. The Times of Central Asia earlier reported that the abundant floodwater in April-May 2024 raised Kazakhstan’s Caspian Sea water level by over a meter. On July 1, Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation announced that the water level in the northeastern part of the Caspian Sea had risen by 119 cm since the beginning of 2024. The COP29 summit has been widely criticized for its "theatrics," "slow progress," and handing out the "red carpet" treatment to fossil fuel bosses.

Tajik MMA Fighter Chorshanbiev, Imprisoned For Criticizing Authorities, Faces New Charges

In Tajikistan, the well known MMA fighter and prominent blogger Chorshanbe Chorshanbiev, already serving an 8.5-year prison sentence, has been handed an additional four years on new charges. Journalist Anora Sarkorova reported the development on November 18, which was later confirmed by sources at Radio Ozodi. Chorshanbiev, known for criticizing Tajik authorities in the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region while residing in Russia, was deported to Tajikistan in December 2021. By May 2022, he was convicted of “public calls for violent change of the constitutional order” and sentenced to 8.5 years in prison. Details of the additional sentence remain unclear, but it is speculated to be related to either violations of prison regulations or involvement in a fight. Recently, Chorshanbiev was transferred from a penal colony in Khujand to a pre-trial detention center in Dushanbe. Chorshanbiev’s legal troubles began in December 2021 when he was deported from Russia for traffic violations. Upon his arrival in Dushanbe, he was arrested, and the Tajik prosecutor's office initiated charges against him, alleging incitement of social and national discord and calls to overthrow the state system. However, during the investigation, the first charge was dropped. His trial garnered significant public attention. Prominent athletes in Russia voiced their support for him, and his defense team argued that the case rested on a single piece of evidence: a video recorded in November 2021. In the video, Chorshanbiev commented on violent clashes in Khorog, during which three people were killed and dozens injured. The prosecution claimed his statements amounted to incitement of protests against the government. A political scientist’s analysis, presented during the trial, characterized Chorshanbiev’s remarks as a call for rebellion. However, his lawyers contested this interpretation and requested a re-evaluation of the video. In court, Chorshanbiev maintained that he had no intention of destabilizing the country. Despite the divided expert opinion, Chorshanbiev was convicted, and his case continues to provoke debate.

Out With the Old and in With the New: From Politicians to Felons – Part Two

The end of the first president of Kazakhstan, Nursultan Nazarbayev’s era coincided with a wave of mass protests across the country. The widely-accepted cause was the death of five children in a fire in a dilapidated annex to a private house, the like of which there are many in the suburbs of Astana. This tragedy occurred on the night of February 4, 2019, when the girls, with ages ranging from a baby to twelve years old, were left home alone. The event sparked furious complaints from mothers of children across the country, and on March 19 of the same year, Nazarbayev resigned, handing power to the next in the constitutional hierarchy, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, the speaker of the Senate (Kazakhstan's upper house of parliament). High-profile cases of the transition period From that moment until the events of January 2022, the country went through a transitional period, which is often spoken of as having been a time of dual power. By analogy with the “Kremlin Towers” (a popular theory about clans in Vladimir Putin's Russia being engaged in an irreconcilable struggle for resources and influence), the new president's entourage began to be called “Akorda” - after the head of state's residence in Astana. Supporters of Nazarbayev and the idea of his return to the presidency, meanwhile, were known as the “Library” – a reference to the Library of the First President. It was believed that the officials Tokayev inherited from his predecessor were more likely to run reports to the Library than to the Akorda. This division serves to explain how the new president was bound in his ability to implement changes. Tokayev initially announced a course of political, economic and social reforms, but only the latter were implemented, while the rest were sabotaged. Even support from the general public, which Tokayev managed to garner in the National Council of Public Trust, did not help matters.Even under such constraints, however, it was possible to begin a purge of the establishment. For example, in 2020, the country was shaken by the first high-profile criminal case under Tokayev, when Bulat Bakauov, akim of the Pavlodar region and a bellwether of high-profile scandals under Nazarbayev, was accused of abusing his authority and arrested. However, the influence of Nazarbayev's entourage remained strong, so the sentence handed down to the former Akim turned out to be a meagre restriction of freedom for 3.5 years. The court obliged Bakauov to refrain from leaving his residence and regularly report to the probation service. In addition, Bakauov was obliged to engage in a hundred hours of public labor, ordered to return $10,000, and banned from holding public office. In the same year, there was a glimmer of hope that the former Akim of Almaty, Bauyrzhan Baibek - who was elevated to the height of political power by his father's childhood friendship with Nursultan Nazarbayev – would be held to account. Urban legends still circulate about the illegal earnings of Baibek and his team from the reconstruction of the center of...

Mirziyoyev Tells Uzbekistan’s Parliament That He Wants a Stronger Opposition

Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev said on Monday that the parliament should be more dynamic about solving society’s problems, and that the “opposition” should have more rights in the assembly. His comments were in line with the government’s reform push, but also reflected Mirziyoyev's tight political control over Uzbekistan, because none of the five registered political parties pose a meaningful challenge to him.   Mirziyoyev made the announcements in a speech to the Oliy Majlis, Uzbekistan’s parliament, in its first session since October 27 legislative elections. The elections were meant to underline the country’s evolution toward political liberalization, even though OSCE election observers said there was a lack of political competition and the vote “did not offer voters a real choice.” Those elections introduced a mixed system in which half of 150 lawmakers were elected individually and half from party lists, the result of a constitutional change that is part of a broader government campaign to develop the Central Asian country in socio-economic, judicial and other areas. While Mirziyoyev promised more openness and accountability after taking power following the death of longtime leader Islam Karimov in 2016, opponents say the government is often heavyhanded in its response to dissent and efforts to form a genuine political opposition are kept in check.   Mirziyoyev’s comment about giving more clout to the opposition came midway through a speech in which he reviewed the elections and urged parliamentarians to be more pro-active in “solving urgent problems” in Uzbekistan. He talked about legislative proposals to replace old residential buildings with modern ones, support private education and investors in energy, introduce mandatory health insurance and tackle themes related to artificial intelligence.  “In order to boost the opposition, it was proposed to increase the number of guaranteed rights of the parliamentary opposition from 3 to 6, including giving it the positions of one committee chairman and two deputy committee chairmen, as well as additional rights to submit questions within the framework of the “government hour” and parliamentary inquiries,” Mirziyoyev’s office said in a statement.  There are nuances between the government and some lawmakers on specific issues such as environmental policy or public pronouncements on Uzbekistan’s relationship with Russia, though the registered parties are essentially loyal to the president. In a constitutional referendum in 2023, voters approved measures that could let Mirziyoyev stay in power until 2040. 

Climate Crisis in Central Asia: Kyrgyz Geologist Spells Out Threat of Disappearing Glaciers

Kyrgyzstan's President Sadyr Japarov has warned at the COP29 climate summit in Baku that Kyrgyzstan’s glaciers have shrunk by 16% over the past 70 years, a trend that could accelerate if immediate action is not taken. Glaciers are a crucial source of drinking water for Kyrgyzstan and the broader Central Asian region. Japarov emphasized that the continued reduction in glacier size will lead to water scarcity and bring severe social, economic, and environmental consequences. “Our region is among the most vulnerable to global warming. By 2100, we may lose more than half of all glaciers,” he said, stressing the need for regional cooperation on green projects to mitigate the impacts of climate change. Kyrgyz glaciologists at the Institute of Geology have been monitoring the region’s glaciers since the early 1940s. Senior researcher Ilya Mezgin explained the alarming rate of glacier loss. “If you look at maps from 1943, two-kilometer glaciers were visible on the Chatkal Ridge in western Kyrgyzstan. Today, they’ve disappeared entirely from satellite images,” Mezgin told The Times of Central Asia. The melting has worsened over time. In 1985, Kyrgyzstan had 8,200 glaciers. That number has since dropped to just 6,500. Glaciers at lower altitudes are melting the fastest, while larger glaciers are expected to last until 2100. Mezgin noted that western glaciers in the Talas region are particularly at risk of disappearing. The mountains of the Tian Shan are composed in the main of crystalline and sedimentary rocks of the Paleozoic Era (i.e., about 540–250 million years ago). growth of the Tian Shan continued until 250 million years ago, when a large continental plate, known as Tarim, collided with Asia. The State Agency for Geology of Kyrgyzstan has suggested that glaciers can both retreat and regrow over time. However, the current trend is one of significant retreat.