Turkmenistan International Affairs - The Times Of Central Asia

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Azerbaijan Tightens Visa Rules for Russians Amid Aktau Crash Fallout

The Azerbaijani government has announced new restrictions on the temporary stay of Russian citizens, effective January 1, 2025. Under the new rules, Russian citizens and stateless persons residing in Russia will be limited to a maximum of 90 days per calendar year without a visa. The announcement comes in the wake of a tragic plane crash involving an Azerbaijan Airlines (AZAL) aircraft near the Kazakh city of Aktau on December 25. The plane, which had taken off from Baku headed to Grozny, Chechnya, crashed, killing 38 people and injuring 29 others. Kazakhstan is currently leading the investigation into the incident. Accusations and Responses Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev has stated that the plane was struck by Russian ground fire while flying over Russian territory. He accused Russia of attempting to obscure the truth by spreading “absurd theories” about the crash. In response, Russian President Vladimir Putin issued an apology for the incident,but did not admit responsibility for the alleged ground fire. International Reactions The crash has prompted flight suspensions to Russia by several airlines, citing safety concerns. Turkmenistan: Flights on the Ashgabat-Moscow-Ashgabat route have been canceled from December 30, 2024, to January 31, 2025. The reason for the decision has not been disclosed, but the airline previously operated twice-weekly flights to Moscow. Kazakhstan: Kazakh Air has suspended its Astana-Yekaterinburg route from December 28, 2024, to January 27, 2025, to ensure passenger safety. Israel: Israeli airline El Al has halted flights on the Tel Aviv-Moscow route until next week, citing “events in Russian airspace.” UAE: Flydubai has suspended flights to Sochi and Mineralnye Vody due to technical reasons. Flights to Sochi are expected to resume on January 2, while services to Mineralnye Vody will restart on January 3. In a symbolic gesture, an Uzbekistan Airways plane circled Aktau Airport twice in memory of the Azerbaijan Airlines crash victims. Broader Implications The tragedy and subsequent allegations have heightened tensions in the region and raised concerns about air travel safety in Russian airspace. While investigations are ongoing, the incident underscores the geopolitical sensitivities and potential risks associated with the aviation sector in this area.

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The Netherlands Strengthens Its Position in Turkmenistan’s Agricultural Sector

Dutch companies are expanding their presence in Turkmenistan's agricultural sector, exploring new business opportunities to modernize and enhance local farming practices. A delegation led by former Dutch Ambassador to Kyrgyzstan Peter van Leeuwen visited Ashgabat in early December to assess potential collaborations. The delegation included representatives from prominent Dutch firms such as Agrotech Didam, Dalsem, Geerlofs, HZPC, and Kubo. Discussions focused on key areas for joint efforts, including the construction of modern greenhouses, the implementation of drip irrigation systems, and advancements in seed production. Turkmen officials expressed a keen interest in adopting Dutch technologies to boost agricultural yields and efficiency. As part of their visit, the Dutch representatives toured greenhouse complexes near Ashgabat, where crops like tomatoes, strawberries, and bananas are cultivated. They also inspected potato farms and storage systems. The delegation highlighted the significant potential of Turkmenistan’s agriculture and affirmed their willingness to tailor Dutch innovations to suit the country’s specific conditions. This visit followed a Turkmen delegation's trip to the Netherlands in the summer of 2024. During that visit, representatives from Turkmenistan's private sector and the Ministry of Agriculture participated in the international Green Tech Amsterdam exhibition. The event allowed Turkmen officials to explore cutting-edge agricultural technologies and establish connections with global industry leaders. The exchange of delegations underscores growing cooperation between the two nations, with Dutch expertise poised to play a pivotal role in the modernization of Turkmenistan’s agricultural industry.

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Opinion: What Will a New Trump Presidency Mean for Central Asia?

During his presidency, Donald Trump introduced a foreign policy approach that recalibrated U.S. engagement with Central Asia, a region strategically critical yet overshadowed by the influence of China and Russia. Trump’s policies, targeting the collective challenge of CRINK (China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea), aimed to foster regional autonomy and counter external dependency. This policy shift, aimed at countering the global influence of CRINK has extended to the vital region of Central Asia. Further, it is geographically wedged between Russia and China and serves as a critical bridge for U.S. interests. The CRINK nations, in their regional strategies, have made substantial inroads in Central Asia. Additionally, each nation is pursuing influence through economic, political, or military avenues. China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and Russia’s Eurasian Economic Union, for instance, have been noted as major forces reshaping Central Asian economies as well as infrastructure. In 2013, the BRI of China was launched, which has channeled billions into roads, railways, and other infrastructure projects in Central Asia, seeking to create new trade routes connecting Asia to Europe. On the other side, Russia has promoted its Eurasian Economic Union as a trading bloc that has aimed at fostering economic integration among Central Asia and neighboring countries. These initiatives have provided economic incentives for Central Asia but also intensified its reliance on external powers, particularly China and Russia. During his presidency, Trump emphasized a CRINK-focused strategy, which prioritized Central Asia's sovereignty and reduced dependency on China and Russia. This strategy laid the groundwork for U.S. engagement in the region, influencing current policy directions. In 2020, Trump’s administration unveiled a comprehensive strategy for Central Asia, marking the first such effort in over two decades. The policy emphasized U.S. support for border security and defense collaboration, including financial aid to Tajikistan and military training for Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. These measures, though initiated under Trump, continue to shape current U.S. approaches to combating terrorism and fostering regional stability. For example, the U.S. has established the C5+1 initiative as a dialogue platform between the United States and the five Central Asian nations (Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, and Tajikistan). It was developed further to promote mutual goals in regional security, economic development, and environmental resilience. Security cooperation is a vital aspect of this U.S. strategy which has given the threats of terrorism and also potential instability at CRINK’s peripheries (Sciutto, 2024). In particular, Afghanistan’s proximity to Central Asia poses both risks as well as opportunities for these nations. The U.S. has provided financial support to Tajikistan to strengthen border security and counter drug trafficking. Furthermore, while also assisting Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan with training and equipment to improve their defense capabilities the US has financially supported the nation. This military cooperation has aimed to prevent the encroachment of extremist groups like ISIS, which could exploit regional instability and threaten U.S. interests. Trump’s presidency emphasized private sector investments as an alternative to China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Although modest compared to China’s commitments, these investments reflected an effort to position...

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Turkmenistan and U.S. Representatives Explore Prospects for Economic Partnership

A Turkmen-American business forum was held in Ashgabat to discuss opportunities for expanding economic cooperation between Turkmenistan and the United States. The event brought together a delegation of American business leaders led by Eric Stewart, Executive Director of the Turkmen-American Business Council. In their remarks, representatives from both sides emphasized the friendly and cooperative nature of Turkmen-American relations, reaffirming their commitment to deepening ties based on mutual benefit. Turkmenistan, focused on economic diversification and the adoption of advanced technologies, expressed readiness to support U.S. companies in establishing and expanding operations in the Turkmen market. It was highlighted that Turkmenistan offers favorable conditions for investors, including legal and organizational mechanisms to facilitate business activities. The U.S. delegation underscored the strong interest of leading American companies in the Turkmen market and their willingness to contribute to strategic programs aimed at regional development. Companies such as John Deere, Case, General Electric, Boeing, and others are already operating successfully in key sectors of the Turkmen economy. Discussions during the forum centered on priority areas of collaboration, including: Industry, agriculture, and water resources: Supplies of advanced equipment to boost productivity. Fuel and energy sector: Joint projects to advance energy infrastructure. Transportation and construction: Enhancing connectivity and infrastructure development. Innovative technologies, healthcare, and ecology: Promoting sustainable solutions and technological progress. Special attention was given to the role of the Turkmen-American Business Council as a key platform for fostering partnerships between public and private sectors in both countries. Meetings between Turkmen ministries and agencies and representatives of the U.S. business community took place as part of the forum. Discussions focused on opportunities to increase bilateral trade, expand investment activities, and enhance cooperation in high-tech industries. Participants outlined practical steps for implementing joint projects to further strengthen economic ties. Turkmen-American cooperation continues to develop across multiple sectors. Notable recent engagements include: February 2024: The U.S. State Department hosted talks with a Turkmen delegation led by U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Central Asia, John Pommersheim, covering political, economic, and cultural cooperation. April 2024: Political consultations in Ashgabat reaffirmed mutual commitments to enhancing bilateral ties. August 2024: Turkmen Deputy Foreign Minister Ahmed Gurbanov met with U.S. Ambassador Elizabeth Rood to discuss future collaboration prospects. Both sides highlighted the importance of regular political consultations and multilateral platforms such as the C5+1 format for coordinating joint actions and fostering regional development.

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Turkmenistan and Afghanistan to Accelerate TAPI Gas Pipeline Project

During a working visit to Afghanistan on December 15, Turkmenistan’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Rashid Meredov, met with Afghanistan’s Acting Foreign Minister, Amir Khan Muttaqi, to review the progress of major energy, transport, and infrastructure projects involving Turkmenistan in Afghanistan, the Turkmen Foreign Ministry reported. The ministers inspected the ongoing construction of the Afghan section of the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) natural gas pipeline and agreed to accelerate its implementation, according to TOLOnews. Turkmenistan has already completed its section of the TAPI pipeline, designed to transport 33 billion cubic meters of Turkmen natural gas annually to Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India. The $10 billion TAPI project will span 1,814 kilometers, with 816 kilometers crossing Afghanistan. The pipeline will help meet Afghanistan’s domestic gas needs while generating approximately $450 million annually in transit fees. The pipeline will extend from Afghanistan to Quetta and Multan in Pakistan before reaching Fazilka in India. As part of the visit, the Turkmen foreign minister also inspected the construction of a fiber-optic communication line and a warehouse complex at the dry port of Turgundi railway station, located in Afghanistan’s northern Herat Province. Meredov further assessed progress on the Turgundi-Sanabar section of the Turgundi-Herat railroad. The Times of Central Asia previously reported that construction of the Afghan section of the TAPI pipeline officially began on September 11, 2024. Once operational, the TAPI pipeline will enable Turkmenistan — currently exporting natural gas primarily to China — to diversify its export routes. The project aligns with Turkmenistan’s broader plans to deliver gas across the Caspian Sea to Azerbaijan, Turkey, and Europe.

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West Monitors Syria for Plans of Jihadis, Some From Central Asia

Some counterterrorism experts in the West are assessing whether the ouster of Bashar Assad´s regime in Syria will lead to a recalibration of the Islamic militant groups that opposed him, some of which include especially hardline recruits from Central Asia. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the Syrian group that led an offensive into Aleppo and Damascus and forced Assad to flee in a span of two weeks, is trying to turn to governance with a relatively moderate image even though it was associated with Al-Qaeda earlier in the Syrian civil war and is labeled a terrorist organization on some Western lists. It’s too early to say whether HTS leader Abu Mohammed al-Golani will stick to a message of tolerance or can make it work in a fractured country with gutted institutions, but there are signs that some jihadis object to his message of inclusiveness. “Many of them are Central Asians and they may look to go somewhere else. I think we’re inevitably going to see a certain amount of splintering from what happens in Syria,” said Colin Clarke, a terrorism researcher and author of After the Caliphate. At an Atlantic Council event in Washington on Wednesday, Clarke said there is an “interplay” between religious extremism in Afghanistan and Syria, and that a number of groups with Central Asian members have those connections. Clarke said he will be watching to see whether the connections grow following Assad’s abrupt exit after more than two decades in power. Some estimates put the number of Islamic militants who have traveled from Central Asia to Syria and Iraq over the years at around several thousand, though the figures vary and are difficult to confirm. Many joined the Islamic State group, which was defeated in Iraq and is much diminished in Syria although the U.S. recently carried out air strikes to prevent any resurgence by the group amid Syria’s current upheaval. One jihadist group with Central Asia links that collaborated with HTS in the successful campaign against Assad is Katibat al Tawhid wal Jihad, designated a terror group by the U.S. State Department in 2022. The group carried out a Saint Petersburg, Russia metro attack in 2017 that killed 14 passengers and injured 50 others, as well as a suicide car bombing of the Chinese embassy in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan in 2016 that injured three people, according to the U.S. Katibat al Tawhid wal Jihad is comprised mainly of Uzbek, Tajik and Kyrgyz combatants, according to Daniele Garofalo Monitoring, which traces jihadist propaganda and military activity. There are an estimated 400-500 fighters in the group. Another HTS ally is Katibat Mujaheddin Ghuroba Division, which has between 200 and 400 fighters, according to the Garofalo site. Many are Uzbeks, Tajiks and Uyghurs, though the group also has Arab militants. There is also Jaysh al-Muhajireen wal-Ansar, which dates to the early stages of the Syrian civil war that began in 2011. The jihadist group is believed to have 400-500 fighters, mostly Chechens, Tajiks, Dagestanis, Azerbaijanis, Kazakhs and Ukrainians, as well as...