As global demand for copper continues to increase, driven by energy transition and the digital economy, Kazakhstan, a major global producer, is not only increasing its output but also significantly reshaping its export geography.
Analysts at Energyprom.kz have examined the current shifts in the sector and the evolving landscape of Kazakhstan’s copper exports.
With its substantial reserves and a developed metallurgy sector, Kazakhstan is well positioned to benefit from this strategic opportunity. According to preliminary data from the National Statistics Bureau, the country produced 471,000 tons of refined copper in 2025, an increase of 7,100 tons, or 1.5%, from 2024’s 463,900 tons. This suggests a gradual stabilization of the industry following previous fluctuations.
Production trends over recent years have been inconsistent. In 2018, Kazakhstan produced 442,600 tons of refined copper. Output rose 7.7% to 476,500 tons in 2019 and grew modestly in 2020 to 482,900 tons (+1.3%). However, production dropped sharply in 2021 to 403,300 tons, a decline of 16.5%, due to major repairs and upgrades at key processing facilities, including a furnace overhaul at the Balkhash Copper Smelter operated by Kazakhmys Smelting LLP, and disruptions caused by the Covid-19 pandemic.
By 2024, output had rebounded to 474,900 tons, up 17.8% from the 2021 low, signaling the industry’s return to pre-crisis levels.
Despite global demand, Kazakhstan’s total exports of refined copper declined in 2025. However, the structure of those exports shifted notably. Deliveries to Turkey rose from 142,200 to 164,000 tons, an increase of 21,800 tons, or 15.3%. Turkey’s share of Kazakhstan’s copper exports rose from 32.5% to 40.9%, making it the country’s second-largest export destination.
Combined, China and Turkey accounted for about 90% of Kazakhstan’s copper exports from January to November 2025, indicating a still high level of market concentration. However, exports to other countries grew 4.4 times from 9,200 tons to 40,100 tons, raising their share from 2.1% to 10%. This points to early signs of diversification.
These shifts in Kazakhstan’s export strategy coincide with major developments in global demand. According to a forecast by S&P Global, global copper consumption is projected to grow from 27.3 million tons in 2024 to 42.3 million tons by 2040, an increase of 15 million tons, or approximately 55%. The primary drivers include electric vehicles, renewable energy development, power grid upgrades, artificial intelligence, data centers, and rising defense sector needs.
By 2040, copper use in the energy transition sector is expected to more than double from 7.6 million tons in 2024 to 15.6 million tons. Copper demand for AI and data centers is forecast to rise from 1 million to 2.5 million tons. Even traditional sectors like construction and mechanical engineering will grow, projected to increase from 17.8 million to 23.3 million tons.
China will remain the world’s largest consumer of refined copper. According to Fitch Solutions, Chinese demand is expected to rise from 15.9 million tons in 2023 to 18.9 million tons by 2028, an increase of 19%, or more than 3 million tons. This would allow China to maintain a consumption share of around 60% of global demand.
While Kazakhstan’s share of the Chinese market declined in 2025, analysts believe the country is unlikely to move away from China as a strategic export destination. At the same time, growing interest from Turkey, India, and other Asian markets is opening opportunities for diversification and greater resilience in Kazakhstan’s copper export model.
