Labor migration is no longer a temporary phenomenon in Tajikistan. Remittances from migrants now account for nearly half of the country’s GDP, supporting families, sustaining the national budget, and helping preserve social stability. But at the same time, the country has found itself dangerously dependent on external factors, factors that directly impact the welfare of millions of citizens.

Thirty Years On

Since gaining independence, Tajikistan has undergone a transformation in which labor migration has become a systemic feature of society. While the country remained predominantly agrarian during the Soviet era, over the past three decades, the word “Tajik” has become closely associated, particularly across the post-Soviet space, with low-skilled labor abroad.

This shift traces back to the 1990s, when Tajikistan, unlike its Central Asian neighbors, failed to restructure its economy and descended into civil war. With factories shuttered, jobs scarce, and political instability rampant, tens of thousands of people left the country. The early waves of migrants were mainly working-age men. Some educated professionals moved to Europe or the US, others to Kazakhstan, but most went to Russia, where cultural and linguistic ties remained strong and the labor market was more accessible.

Even after the peace agreement, migration continued and even intensified. Today, more than 30 years later, the annual outflow of the working-age population remains consistently high.

The Economy on the Migrant “Needle”

Official data record up to 600,000 migrant departures per year. However, the real number is likely higher: many migrants do not return home between seasons, and some have settled permanently in Russia. Since the war in Ukraine began in 2022, migration routes have shifted again, some now leave for Europe and the United States, sometimes under refugee status.

According to the World Bank, in 2024, remittances from migrant workers reached $5.8 billion, representing 45.3% of Tajikistan’s GDP, a global record. Over the past 17 years, this figure has dropped below 30% only three times. For the last three years, remittances have consistently made up nearly half of the national economy.

A Hushed-Up Contribution

Despite the critical role of labor migration, the topic is largely avoided by the Tajik authorities. As far back as 2013, then-head of the National Bank Abdujabbor Shirinov refused to disclose statistics, stating that “this issue could take on a political connotation.” In 2019, his successor, Jamshed Nurmahmadzoda, advised journalists “not to focus on migrants’ money.”

Today, the National Bank attributes the lack of up-to-date data to “technical difficulties” linked to electronic and online transfers. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Labor has not published migration figures for Russia in two years, citing discrepancies with Russian data. As a result, one of the main sources of economic stability remains unacknowledged at the official level.

What Keeps the Budget Afloat

Tajikistan’s economy remains structurally fragile. Its export potential is 3-4 times smaller than its import demand. Foreign currency earned through trade covers only about a quarter of the country’s imports, the rest is financed by remittances.

These funds support domestic consumption: families use them to buy food, clothing, medicine, and pay for education and transport. In turn, this spending fuels local businesses and services, which generate tax revenues. Taxes currently account for 70% of the national budget.

Remittances, therefore, play a direct role in funding public services like education, healthcare, and infrastructure. Any drop in remittances can trigger a domino effect: reduced spending, declining tax revenue, and cuts to social programs. The economy quickly slows.

The Price of Dependence

Tajikistan’s reliance on external income carries serious risks. The livelihoods of millions depend on foreign policy developments, shifts in migration rules, and economic conditions in host countries. Migrants in Russia are particularly vulnerable: xenophobia is on the rise, law enforcement pressure is intensifying, and cases of discrimination and violence are increasingly reported. Many workers live in poor conditions and skimp on basic needs just to send money home.

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has described migration as both a “lifeline” for the economy and a source of high social vulnerability. Experts urge the government to improve consular protection, diversify labor markets, and invest in pre-departure training and education for citizens heading abroad.

Social Dimension

Migration is reshaping the social fabric of Tajik society. Hundreds of thousands of children are growing up without one or both parents, whose absence places significant strain on families. The main burden often falls on women and elderly relatives. While international NGOs are implementing support programs, the scope of the problem remains vast.

“Migration remains a vital means of subsistence for millions of Tajik citizens. Solving the existing problems will benefit not only migrants and their families, but also society and the state as a whole,” the ADB report notes.

Experts increasingly agree: migration is not a temporary compromise, but a deeply embedded economic institution. Until Tajikistan can provide enough decent jobs at home, migration will remain a pillar of survival.

The challenge now is for the state to formally recognize this reality and adopt a strategy, to protect its citizens abroad, ensure the continuity of remittance flows, and convert this financial lifeline from a tool for survival into a catalyst for development. Only then can Tajikistan move from a position of vulnerable dependence toward a sustainable, mature economic policy.