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16 Apr 2026

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Kazakhstan on Europe’s Oil Podium, but for How Long?

April 24, 2026
By Askar Kubaizhanov

Kazakhstan has strengthened its position as one of the key suppliers of oil to the European Union, capitalizing on the redistribution of energy flows following the reduction of Russian crude imports. However, declining production and vulnerabilities in export infrastructure cast doubt on the country’s ability to maintain this position in the medium term.

According to official EU data, the EU remains one of the world’s largest oil importers, meeting about 97% of its demand through external supplies. In 2025, EU countries imported approximately 435 million tonnes of crude oil worth more than €212 billion. The reduction in Russia’s share from 25.8% in 2021 to 2.2% in 2025 led to a significant redistribution of flows in favour of alternative suppliers, including the United States (14.6%), Norway (12.8%), and Kazakhstan (12.8%) by crude-oil import volume.

Kazakhstan has been among the main beneficiaries of these changes. According to an Econovis Economic Research Laboratory report, the share of Kazakh supplies in European imports has increased for several consecutive years.

This growth has been driven by strong demand from European refineries for light, low-sulfur CPC Blend crude.

Alongside Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan has also strengthened its position, benefiting from Europe’s diversification efforts. A notable example is the Czech Republic, where, following the cessation of deliveries via the Druzhba pipeline, Azerbaijan accounted for more than 42% of oil imports in 2025, according to Czech import data. Kazakhstan ranked third in the Czech market with a share of around 18%, indicating the emergence of a new energy balance in the Caspian region.

Despite this favorable external environment, Kazakhstan’s oil and gas sector has faced a significant downturn. According to government data, in the first quarter of 2026, oil and gas condensate production amounted to 19.7 million tonnes, 20% less than in the same period of 2025. Oil exports declined by approximately 22% to 15.3 million tonnes, while the annual export forecast stands at about 76 million tonnes. By mid-April, however, CPC exports had risen from February levels as Tengiz resumed production, suggesting that some of the early-year disruption had eased.

The decline is linked to disruptions in the operations of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) and temporary shutdowns at major fields, including Tengiz. The CPC remains the key export route for Kazakh oil to Europe, transporting most of the crude through the terminal in Novorossiysk.

Economic analyst Olzhas Baidildinov said the consequences of attacks on the consortium’s infrastructure could have long-term implications.

“Oil and gas condensate production in Kazakhstan fell by 20% in the first quarter compared to January-March 2025, 19.7 million tonnes versus 24.6 million tonnes. Oil exports decreased by approximately 22% to 15.3 million tonnes. The export forecast for this year is 76 million tonnes,” he wrote on his Telegram channel.

According to his estimates, the country will once again fail to surpass the psychologically significant threshold of 100 million tonnes of annual production.

“As a result of the attacks on the CPC, at least 6 million tonnes of oil worth no less than $3.4 billion were not produced over four months. Taking into account associated costs, the total damage and lost revenue easily exceed $4 billion,” Baidildinov said.

These figures are Baidildinov’s estimates and have not been independently confirmed by the authorities or the CPC.

Disruptions in the supply of Kazakh oil have increased tensions in the European market for light crude grades. At the beginning of the year, a shortage of CPC Blend forced traders to increase purchases of North Sea grades, temporarily lifting premiums relative to the Brent benchmark. In January, Kazakh oil briefly traded at a premium to Dated Brent for the first time in a year, reflecting strong demand from European refiners, although the premium did not last, and pricing later moved back into discount. Additional volatility was driven by geopolitical risks, including the conflict in the Middle East.

Against this backdrop, Kazakhstan is seeking to expand exports to Asian markets. South Korea has agreed to purchase 273 million barrels of oil from Kazakhstan, Saudi Arabia, and other Middle Eastern countries by the end of 2026. Kazakhstan’s share amounts to about 18 million barrels, or 6.5% of the total, indicating the continued dominance of Middle Eastern suppliers.

Japan is also considering the possibility of increasing oil imports from Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan through projects involving the national company INPEX. However, such plans remain at an early stage, and alternative supply routes would extend delivery times to 25-55 days and increase transportation costs, limiting the competitiveness of Kazakh crude in Asian markets.

The decline in oil production is already affecting the broader economy. Kazakhstan’s GDP growth slowed from 6.5% in 2025 to 3% in the first quarter of 2026.

In the short term, demand for Kazakh oil in the EU is likely to remain high, particularly given the shortage of light crude grades. Nevertheless, any further disruptions in production or transportation could shift the balance of the market, intensifying competition from other suppliers.

16 Apr 2026

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Kazakhstan Boosts Container Train Traffic Along Middle Corridor

April 16, 2026
By Sergey Kwan

In the first quarter of 2026 Kazakhstan recorded a significant increase in container train traffic along the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR), also known as the Middle Corridor, underscoring the country’s growing role in Eurasian logistics. One hundred and twenty-five container trains transited through Kazakhstan via the TITR, marking a 34.4% increase compared to the same period in 2025.

The growth was largely driven by a new logistics approach introduced by national railway operator Kazakhstan Temir Zholy (KTZ) aimed at accelerating container transportation.

Since January 2026, KTZ has implemented a synchronized model for forming container trains that aligns rail and maritime transport schedules. This system enables container trains to be assembled directly for shiploads, eliminating the need for additional cargo accumulation and significantly reducing handling times.

The new model has already been applied to 28 container trains bound for key logistics hubs, including:

Absheron, Azerbaijan;
Poti and Tbilisi, Georgia; and
Mersin and Izmit, Turkey.

The TITR is a multimodal corridor linking China and Europe through Central Asia and the South Caucasus, providing an alternative to routes that pass through Russia.

The geography of cargo origins has also broadened. While the Chinese city of Xi’an accounted for roughly 50% of all shipments in 2025, additional industrial centers have now joined the route, including Zhengzhou, Yiwu, Hefei, Wuhan, Tianjin, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou. This diversification is expected to further strengthen the corridor’s resilience and capacity.

KTZ plans to scale up the synchronized transportation model throughout 2026, enhancing the efficiency and competitiveness of the TITR.

As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, freight volumes transported along the Middle Corridor through Kazakhstan have grown more than fivefold over the past seven years, increasing from 0.8 million tons to 4.5 million tons annually.

Container transportation has emerged as one of the fastest-growing segments of the route. In 2025, approximately 77,000 TEUs were transported along the TITR, and Kazakhstan aims to increase this figure to 300,000 TEUs by 2029, reflecting its ambition to position the corridor as a key artery for Eurasian trade.

16 Apr 2026

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Tajikistan to Receive Nearly €50 Million from the EBRD to Reduce Electricity Losses

April 16, 2026
By Vagit Ismailov

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) will provide Tajikistan with a loan and grant package totalling approximately €50 million to help reduce electricity losses in two regions of the country.

According to the Ministry of Finance, total financing amounts to €49.6 million, including €28 million in loans, with the remainder provided as a grant.

The loan terms are highly concessional. The interest rate is set at 0.5% per annum plus Euribor, meaning a fixed margin is added to the benchmark rate, which fluctuates based on market conditions. For example, if Euribor stands at 0.2% at the time of disbursement, the total interest rate would be 0.7%.

The loan will be repaid over 20 years. During the first six years, only interest payments will be required, while the principal will be repaid over the remaining 14 years.

Presenting the agreement to parliament, First Deputy Minister of Finance Yusuf Majidi said the primary objective is to reduce energy losses, replace outdated infrastructure, introduce modern metering systems, and improve billing and revenue collection. The project involves modernisation of electricity distribution networks across nine regional branches in the Sughd and Khatlon regions.

The need to address electricity losses has also been highlighted by President Emomali Rahmon. In an address to parliament, he cited figures showing that during the first 11 months of 2025, electricity losses totalled 3 billion kWh-500 million kWh less than in the same period a year earlier.

16 Apr 2026

Central Asia, Home, Uzbekistan, Uzbekistan Home, Business & Economy, Uzbekistan Business & Economy

Uzbekistan’s Economy to Remain Strong in 2026, IMF Forecasts 6.8% Growth

April 16, 2026
By Sadokat Jalolova

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has released its latest assessment of Uzbekistan’s economy, reporting strong growth in 2025 alongside recommendations for continued fiscal discipline and structural reforms.

According to the IMF, Uzbekistan’s real GDP grew by 7.7% in 2025, driven by robust domestic consumption and investment. Growth was broad-based, with the services and construction sectors expanding the fastest. At the same time, the unemployment rate declined to 4.8%, down 0.7 percentage points from the previous year.

Inflation showed a downward trend, with annual consumer price growth falling to 7.3% by the end of 2025, compared to 9.8% a year earlier. The IMF attributed this to the fading impact of energy price increases introduced in May 2024, a stronger national currency, and what it described as an “appropriately tight monetary policy stance.” Core inflation also declined over the same period.

External balances improved. The current account deficit narrowed to 3.9% of GDP, supported by strong exports and remittance inflows. International reserves remained stable, covering around 13 months of imports, while the fiscal deficit fell to 2.1% of GDP, below the government’s 3% target.

“The economic outlook remains favorable,” the IMF said, while pointing to increasing global uncertainties, particularly linked to geopolitical tensions and the conflict in the Middle East. Economic growth is projected at 6.8% in 2026, before moderating to around 6% in 2027.

Inflation is expected to remain above the Central Bank’s 5% target in 2026, partly due to higher global oil prices, before easing toward the target level in 2027. The IMF stressed that monetary policy should remain focused on price stability, noting that the policy rate has been held at 14% since March 2025.

The report also highlighted risks related to global economic conditions, including trade disruptions and commodity price volatility, as well as domestic challenges such as potential pressure for increased public spending and vulnerabilities linked to state-owned enterprises.

The IMF recommended limiting additional government spending in 2026 to avoid fuelling inflation. It also called for targeted social support measures instead of broad subsidies, alongside continued reforms in tax policy, public financial management, and state-owned enterprises.

Further recommendations included accelerating the privatisation of state-owned banks, strengthening financial sector oversight, and improving governance standards. The IMF also emphasised the importance of maintaining exchange rate flexibility to help the economy absorb external shocks.

The findings build on last year’s IMF assessment, which reported 7.6% growth in the first nine months of 2025, also driven by strong consumption and investment, while inflation showed signs of easing.

16 Apr 2026

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Kazakhstan Aims to Increase Agricultural Exports to Turkey

April 16, 2026
By Dmitry Pokidaev

Kazakhstan is seeking to expand exports of agricultural products to the Turkish market, Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov said during a meeting of the Kazakhstan-Turkey Intergovernmental Commission held in Astana.

According to Bektenov, trade turnover in the agro-industrial sector between the two countries increased by more than 25% in 2025, reaching $360 million. “In the coming period, it is important to diversify trade in this sector, expand the export product range, and launch joint high value-added production. We are interested in exporting wheat, lentils, animal feed, and oilseeds to Turkey,” he said.

The prime minister also said that relevant government agencies and businesses in Kazakhstan and Turkey have established exchanges of experience in agricultural technologies and insurance. To support further export growth, he added, cooperation in veterinary and phytosanitary control needs to be strengthened.

In 2025, approximately $390 million in Turkish investment was attracted to Kazakhstan’s economy, bringing the cumulative total over the past 20 years to more than $6 billion.

By the end of 2025, bilateral trade had increased by 9%, while Kazakhstan’s overall exports rose by more than 17% to $3.9 billion.

Turkey’s Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz, who led the Turkish delegation, emphasised the importance of cooperation not only at the bilateral level but also within multilateral frameworks.

“We attach particular importance not only to bilateral interaction between Turkey and Kazakhstan, but also to our joint work within the Organization of Turkic States and other international structures. These platforms enable us to enhance coordination, expand economic opportunities, and translate political dialogue into practical outcomes,” Yılmaz said.

The parties also noted a 35% increase in railway freight transportation between Kazakhstan and Turkey in 2025 and reaffirmed the priority of developing the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, also known as the Middle Corridor. Key objectives include infrastructure modernisation, eliminating bottlenecks, expanding port and terminal capacity, implementing digital solutions, and coordinating tariff policies.

In addition to agriculture, the sides discussed prospects for energy cooperation, including joint projects in the oil and gas sector and geological exploration. Potential cooperation in IT education, fintech, cybersecurity, and e-government services was also highlighted.

As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, Turkey is considered a promising market for Kazakh meat producers, as it is willing to pay higher prices than other markets.

16 Apr 2026

Central Asia, Home, Uzbekistan, Life & Culture, Uzbekistan Home, Uzbekistan Life & Culture

1853 Map of the Aral Sea Published in the Journal of the Royal Geographical Society

April 16, 2026
By Sadokat Jalolova

An 1853 map of the Aral Sea, published in the Journal of the Royal Geographical Society, depicts the vast inland water body at a time when it was near its historical peak. The engraving, created by German cartographer August Petermann, was based on findings from a scientific expedition conducted in 1848-1849, according to historical materials referenced in the project.

The expedition, led by Russian naval officer Alexey Butakov, produced one of the first detailed studies of the Aral Sea. Researchers measured its depth, mapped its coastline, and documented its islands, providing a comprehensive picture of a body of water that would later become a symbol of environmental degradation.

Although widely referred to as a sea, the Aral is in fact a lake. In the 20th century, it ranked as the world’s fourth-largest lake. Scientific evidence suggests it formed around 17,600 years ago as a result of glacial melt. Initially freshwater, it became increasingly saline over time, while its water levels fluctuated over centuries.

From the 1960s, however, the lake began to shrink rapidly. Large-scale irrigation projects diverted water from the Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers, primarily for cotton cultivation. Over the following decades, the Aral Sea lost more than 90% of its volume, transforming much of the region into desert and salt plains, and severely disrupting ecosystems and local livelihoods.

In 1989, the lake split into two separate bodies. The southern part, largely located in Uzbekistan, has almost completely dried up, forming the Aralkum Desert. The northern section has shown some stabilisation, supported in part by infrastructure such as the Kokaral Dam.

This transformation, and its historical context, will be explored in Uzbekistan’s cultural exhibition When Apricots Blossom, which draws on archival materials and contemporary interpretation. The exhibition takes its name from a poem by Hamid Olimjon, written in the 1930s, symbolising hope and renewal.

According to organisers, the project will combine history, art, and environmental reflection to present the story of the Aral Sea to an international audience. The exhibition will run from April 20 to 26, at Palazzo Citterio in Milan’s Brera district as part of Milan Design Week.