The population of Central Asia when the Soviet Union collapsed in late 1991 and the five Central Asian republics became independent countries was some 50 million people. Thirty-four years later, the population of the region is about 80 million. However, in Kyrgyzstan, the birth rate has been declining in recent years, and it has officials confused and alarmed.

The Data

Kyrgyz parliamentary deputy Dastan Bekeshev raised the matter on August 7, noting the country has seen a steady fall in the number of babies born from 2019, when it reached a record of some 173,000, to about 140,000 in 2024. Bekeshev was responding to recently released figures from Kyrgyzstan’s National Statistics Committee that showed the birth rate for 2020 was 156,112, for 2021 it was 150,164, climbing a bit to 150,225 in 2022, then dropping to 145,977 in 2023, and 140,419 in 2024.

According to the Health Ministry’s chief specialist on demography, Raisa Asylbasheva, there are currently some 1.8 million women in Kyrgyzstan considered to be of childbearing age.

Asylbasheva said it could be cyclical and “in five years, possibly, there will be an increase.”

Bekeshev, however, has pointed out that if the trend continues, “In 15-20 years, there will be fewer young people in the country who can work, pay taxes, and provide for pensioners.”

The Reasons

Among the statistics cited on birth rate, one catches the eye immediately: the average age of a mother giving birth in Kyrgyzstan in 2024 was 28.4 years old. Traditionally, people marry young in Central Asia, and new mothers are often in their late teens or early 20s. It is not uncommon, especially in rural areas, to encounter grandmothers who are not even 40 years old.

Many factors potentially play into the reasons for this decline in birth rate, but the general consensus is that socio-economic conditions are the primary cause. Asylbasheva said young people are concentrating on their careers and choosing to marry later than was previously the case. “The literacy rate of the population is growing; young people are already planning a family, trying to create conditions for a child,” Asylbasheva explained.

Asylbasheva also mentioned that difficulties in obtaining a family-sized flat or house are causing some young couples to wait before having children.

Baktygul Bozgorpoyeva, director of the Alliance for Family Planning, said state support for young families is sorely lacking and there needs to be government programs to help mothers and fathers raise their children “from adolescence to adulthood.” According to Kyrgyzstan’s National Statistics Committee, the average monthly wage in Kyrgyzstan in 2025 is a little more than 40,000 som (about $458), though many people receive considerably less than that amount.

Kyrgyzstan’s authorities do offer some financial help. Under the “Balaga Suyunchu” (Happy for a child) scheme established in 2018, the state provides a one-time payment to parents of 4,000 som (about $46) after the birth of each child. In the event of triplets or more babies, the state gives a one-time payment of 50,000 som (about $572) for each child.

Parliamentary Deputy Bekeshev has called the Balaga Suyunchu payments “inadequate” and stated that even if parents received 100,000 som for each newborn, it would not make much difference in helping to raise the child. “There should be a [state] program,” Bekeshev said; “there must be an opportunity to provide for [children’s] future – a normal upbringing and a good education.”

In June, Deputy Chairman of the Cabinet of Ministers Edil Baisalov proposed establishing a program that provided benefits to parents until a child is three years old. Baisalov noted that 21% of children in Kyrgyzstan are in low-income families, and these children are in desperate need of more state support.

The Kyrgyz government is about to implement the “Bala Bereke” (A child is a blessing) program to encourage families living in high-altitude and remote areas of the country to have many children. The program will start on January 1, 2026, and provide a one-off payment of 100,000 som (about $1,145) upon the birth of a fourth child, 600,000 som for a fifth child, and 800,000 som for a sixth. Families will receive one million som ($11,448) for a seventh child, with the amount continuing to increase to see a family receive two million som for the birth of a tenth child.

The Neighbors

Bekeshev’s comment about the need for more children to guarantee the country has an adequate workforce and revenue from taxes in the future is not unique to Kyrgyzstan; other countries with declining birth rates are facing the same problem. However, another dilemma for Kyrgyzstan is that its immediate neighbors all have larger populations.

Kyrgyzstan’s population is some 7.3 million. China, of course, is far larger, with some 1.4 billion people, but even in China’s Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, which borders Kyrgyzstan, there are approximately 26 million people. Kazakhstan’s population is some 20.3 million, and Uzbekistan’s population is set to reach 38 million in the coming months.

However, Kyrgyz officials have more reason to watch their southern neighbor, Tajikistan, where the population is currently some 10.3 million.

Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan signed an agreement on March 13, 2025, that aimed to end more than a decade of escalating tensions along the two countries’ border. One of the causes of these tensions was the outmigration of Kyrgyz residents from the border area, as many sought better fortunes in other areas of Kyrgyzstan or as migrant laborers in Russia and other countries. Areas of farmland and pastures for herds were left unattended in an area where both are in short supply, and in some cases, departing Kyrgyz illegally sold their land to neighboring Tajiks.

Population size has been important to all the Central Asian states since they became independent in late 1991. Inhabited settlements on the ground mark a country’s territory.

That is another reason why the declining birth rate in Kyrgyzstan is a cause for concern: the populations of Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan continue to grow. Kyrgyzstan’s population has increased by more than 70% since independence in 1991, but in Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, the two countries with which Kyrgyzstan has experienced the most problems over territorial claims, the populations have nearly doubled in that time.

Asylbasheva has said the declining birth rate might be an anomaly that will self-correct in the coming years. If the reduction is a trend, the Kyrgyz authorities will have to consider introducing new incentives and benefits for young families, but the possibilities remain limited for the cash-strapped government to convince and support people to have large families, or even more than two children.