The question of revisiting Kazakhstan’s production-sharing agreements (PSAs) with foreign oil companies is once again gaining prominence both within the country and internationally. While the Ministry of Energy is formally responsible for managing these contracts, growing pressure is coming not only from civil society but also directly from President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, who has publicly questioned the long-standing terms of these deals since 2022.

Confidential Terms, Public Scrutiny

Recent revelations have further fueled this debate. The International Consortium of Investigative Journalists (ICIJ) recently detailed the ongoing arbitration dispute between Kazakhstan and the North Caspian Operating Company (NCOC), which manages the Kashagan field. The stakes are high: $160 billion is under contention. Yet what shocked the Kazakh public most was not the litigation itself, but that the state receives just 2% of the field’s profits, with a staggering 98% flowing to foreign stakeholders.

Such findings offer context for why the Ministry of Energy is reluctant to release details of these 1990s-era agreements, originally negotiated with significant involvement from Kazakhstan’s first president, Nursultan Nazarbayev. In a recent court case, the ministry successfully blocked a lawsuit by Vadim Ni, founder of the Save the Caspian Sea movement, who demanded public disclosure of PSA terms affecting environmental interests in the Caspian.

The ministry argued that Kazakhstan’s adherence to international confidentiality clauses is essential to avoid multibillion-dollar lawsuits and maintain its reputation as a stable investment destination. However, the ministry also emphasized that confidentiality does not shield violators from environmental penalties.

Calls for transparency and revision have come from various quarters. Members of the Ak Zhol party and the Parasat Business Alliance have joined the chorus, urging the government to review the PSAs. In this context, President Tokayev’s consistent remarks suggest a coordinated state policy shift.

A Change in Presidential Tone

Tokayev first broached the subject in a 2022 interview with Russia 24, reflecting on the constraints Kazakhstan faced during the early years of independence. At the time, the country had no legal framework for foreign investment and had to rely on companies like Chevron to develop its energy sector. The president acknowledged the success of some ventures but also suggested the need for a “correction” to reflect current realities.

Fast forward to 2023, and the government launched a $5 billion lawsuit against NCOC over alleged environmental violations. Although Kazakhstan has been temporarily barred from collecting the fines pending arbitration, the case marks a significant escalation.

In April 2024, the Parasat Business Alliance held a public briefing demanding more local participation in procurement contracts tied to oil fields such as Karachaganak, Kashagan, and Tengiz. Kazakh companies reportedly receive less than 5% of $12 billion in annual procurements, a figure viewed as unacceptable by domestic businesses.

By January 2025, Tokayev’s rhetoric had hardened. Speaking at an expanded government meeting, he instructed his cabinet to actively renegotiate PSA terms before their expiration. “The implementation of these agreements has helped Kazakhstan become a reliable global energy supplier,” he said, “but large investments require updated terms that benefit our nation.”

The Government’s Calculated Approach

In February, then-Energy Minister Almasadam Satkaliev clarified the government’s strategy: renegotiation would occur during specific competitive periods when contracts approach their expiration window. These negotiations would cover potential extensions, increased local stakes, or even changes to participating companies. Satkaliev stressed that while confidentiality would be maintained, following international norms, internal preparations were underway.

Yet, only a month later, Satkaliev was reassigned to lead the newly created Agency for Atomic Energy, reporting directly to the president. While the move was officially presented as a promotion, the timing raised eyebrows. Many saw it as a signal that Tokayev was dissatisfied with the pace, or tone, of Satkaliev’s handling of the PSA issue.

Looking Ahead

The timeline matters. Kazakhstan’s stabilized contract for the Tengiz field with Tengizchevroil expires in 2033. Karachaganak’s PSA ends in 2037, and Kashagan’s in 2041. Tokayev’s term runs until 2029. The message is clear: the president does not intend to wait until the eleventh hour to address what he sees as legacy imbalances in Kazakhstan’s oil contracts.

In the coming years, the push to revise PSAs will likely test Kazakhstan’s balancing act between honoring investor commitments and asserting greater control over its strategic resources. What remains to be seen is whether the government can strike a new equilibrium, one that satisfies domestic expectations without undermining international confidence.