OSH, KYRGYZSTAN – On the eastern bank of the Ak-Buura River, a mini-Chinatown is developing. At Osh’s old bus station, buses and taxis hawk their services to Kashgar, 300 kilometers away over the Pamir Mountains in China’s Xinjiang Province. Blue-plated SUVs stand by the roadside, sporting the 新 character that also symbolizes their origin in Xinjiang. At the Kelechek Bazaar, hordes of money changers shout the best rates for Dollars, Uzbek Som, and Chinese Yuan.

Tucked away from the mêlée behind the Peking Hotel is the five-story Confucius Institute. “The Chinese language is in huge demand right now,” said Ali, a student who has moved to Osh from nearby Uzbekistan to study here. He believes the move will be good for his career. “It’s the best opportunity for anyone in this region,” he told The Times of Central Asia, before enthusing about his plans to study in China next year.

The Confucius Institute in Osh, Kyrgyzstan; image: Joe Luc Barnes

“There’s a strong possibility that the younger generation will have a more positive view towards China,” Yunis Sharifli, a non-resident fellow at the China Global South Project told TCA. “This is good for China-Central Asia relations because we know that in the past, anti-China sentiments have hindered cooperation.”

Chinese diplomats often refer to win-win diplomacy, where engagement between states can lead to positive outcomes for both sides. This is viewed with understandable cynicism by those who see Beijing’s diplomacy as entirely self-interested, but when it comes to education, even if we avoid the term win-win, the opportunities that it offers young Central Asians are hard to deny. In return, China hopes to create a network of influence and goodwill from people like Ali.

Nevertheless, the jury is out on whether it is working.

China-plated cars are an increasingly common sight in Kyrgyzstan; image: Joe Luc Barnes

Swelling numbers

Given that numerous questions have been asked about the accuracy of China’s own population data, monitoring the number of foreign students in the country can be a fiendish task. The consensus is that the numbers are increasing. Chinese state media outlet Xinhua claimed that student numbers grew from 11,930 to 29,885 between 2010 and 2018, and have recovered since the pandemic. One recent report put the number of Kazakh students alone at “approaching 20,000”.

These numbers are unlikely to dethrone Russia as the top destination for Central Asian students any time soon. Moscow claimed in 2023 that 168,000 Central Asians were studying in the country, with around a third of them being funded by the Russian government.

However, Sharifli believes that Russia’s luster is beginning to wane.

“Moscow State University has historically been very attractive for Central Asian people, particularly in the social science or the technical fields,” said Sharifli. “But since the war [in Ukraine] began there has been a lot of discrimination against Central Asians in Russia.”

This was demonstrated in a recent account given to The Times of Central Asia by an Uzbek student studying in St Petersburg, who noted examples of being singled out for document checks, the patronizing attitudes of his professors, and housing advertisements for Slavs-only.

Meanwhile Chinese universities have grown in quality, with its elite institutions ranked among the best in the world, including seven in the World’s Top 100 universities in 2024.

The Silk Road Institute and Confucius Institute, Kyrgyz National University, Bishkek; image: Joe Luc Barnes

Scholarships

Another key factor is scholarships.

Some students receive Chinese Government Scholarships, others can gain them through their local Confucius Institute. In December, China announced a new scholarship specifically for Central Asians, selecting 600 students from Central Asia to be educated in elite Chinese universities.

Other programs are offered on a municipal level. The Xian “Five Central Asian Countries” scholarship, offers full bursaries for bachelor’s degrees including tuition, accommodation, insurance, a monthly living stipend of 1,800 yuan ($250) per month, as well as a travel allowance of 20,000 yuan (almost $3,000).

The scholarship offer made all the difference to Zhyldyz Mukaeva from Balykchy, Kyrgyzstan, who studied in the central Chinese city of Chongqing from 2015 to 2018. The scheme gave her a 1,500 yuan ($200) living allowance, which increased to 3,000 yuan for her Master’s program.

“I wouldn’t have been able to go otherwise,” she said. “I considered Europe and the U.S., but thought it’s more difficult to get a scholarship there.”

It took a lot to convince her parents of the merits of the idea. “Kyrgyz families still have conservative views, especially towards their daughters,” she said. “They are more likely to stay in the country, not far from the family. But in the end, I convinced my family by telling them that I was just going for one year to learn Chinese.”

For Nursultan, another Kyrgyz student from Bishkek, who got a scholarship to study in China through his local Confucius Institute in 2018, the small 900 yuan ($125) monthly living stipend was more than enough to live a very comfortable life. “Where I studied in Kaifeng [Henan Province], you could buy a beer for just seven yuan!” he enthused.

The work prospects

Malika Korbanova, a master’s student at Peking University; image: Malika Korbanova

Others pay their own way in the belief that the rewards are worth it. Malika Korbanova, from Almaty, Kazakhstan, is a current student at Peking University in Beijing, and founder of the Central Asian Student Association (CASA) at the university.

She also considered Western intuitions but said that China’s economic prospects and its culture of innovation made it difficult to leave. “Being here allows me to stay closely connected to these developments and build a strong professional network in a country that plays a crucial role in shaping the future. If I were to spend a few years elsewhere, I might lose some of these valuable connections and fall out of sync with China’s rapid progress.”

More prosaically, learning Chinese can be a huge advantage both in China and back home. Mukaeva got a job in international trade in Chongqing after her studies and remained in China with a stable income for the next few years. This is something that she believes she would have struggled to do had she remained in Kyrgyzstan. Nursultan, meanwhile, believes he owes his current job in logistics to the Mandarin he learned in Kaifeng.

A wary population

The gates of the Middle Kingdom have not been thrown open to Central Asia out of pure altruism. A hint of Beijing’s calculus can be seen on the application form for the Xian scholarship, where there is a stipulation that applicants “must be friendly towards China”.

Negative attitudes to China are deep-rooted in this part of the world. China has been a lightning rod for protests throughout the past two decades, particularly in bordering Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan. Following the Sino-Soviet split, relentless anti-Chinese propaganda across the Soviet Union has significantly impacted public views towards China to this day, and the treatment of the Muslim minorities in Xinjiang province has contributed to a further deterioration in relations from 2017 onwards. There are also concerns about Chinese land acquisition and the high levels of debt owed to Chinese banks.

Nursultan, who returned from Kaifeng six years ago, thinks that most Kyrgyz attitudes to China are simply racism. “There was an event in 2011 when a Chinese company came to invest in a gold mine; locals started throwing rocks at them and the Chinese packed their bags and left, and we wonder why are a poor country,” he said, referring to an incident in Naryn province where three Chinese workers were beaten up by a mob.

Some of these attitudes are beginning to change. The Central Asia Barometer, a think tank that monitors public opinion, released a 2024 survey that showed markedly improved public perceptions of China in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan – although not in Uzbekistan. This included an improved attitude towards Chinese workers, which has long been a touchstone issue.

Sharifli believes at least some of this is down to education. “The research shows that when Central Asians go to China, particularly young people, they have a more positive view toward the country.”

Nauryz celebrations at Peking University’s Central Asian Student Association; image: CASA_PKU

Korbanova says that before moving to China her understanding of the country was largely shaped by movies, especially kung fu films. “In my mind, China was a place full of martial arts masters, red lanterns, and endless bowls of dumplings,” she said. But studying there has transformed her impression of the country, particularly the way the transport and air quality in Beijing have improved before her eyes.

She adds that while she is not a political person, she feels that “media narratives [on China] can be highly selective and sometimes misleading… The longer I stay in China, the more I understand its political system and stance.”

This is no doubt Beijing’s aim, but there are still barriers to improving cultural ties, and integration remains a major problem. Meeting local people and forming friendships can be difficult. Mukaeva notes that she had many more international than Chinese friends during her days as a student, “as international students lived in a separate dormitory.” However, she adds that when she found a job in Chongqing, she began to make more local friends.

Korbanova says that 70% of her friends are Russian speakers. “I believe it’s a common phenomenon among expats in China – people tend to gravitate towards those with similar cultural backgrounds or languages, especially in the early stages of adapting to a new country… forming deep friendships with Chinese people sometimes takes more time, as cultural differences and social habits can create certain barriers.”

Part of a wider strategy

As with the numbers, it may be difficult to tell if China’s educational diplomacy can be regarded as a success, but there are clues. The Central Asia Barometer survey noted that the shift in positive attitudes largely took place amongst young people, but other factors may be at play. Between 2018 and early 2022, there was deep skepticism toward China in Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan, with commentators warning of a “credibility gap”. The reversal of this trend has coincided with a fall in coverage of the Xinjiang issue in the local press, as well as a more negative regional attitude towards Russia since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Education alone is not a silver bullet, but it is just one part of China’s courting of the region. Beijing’s infrastructure investments and electric vehicles are extremely popular. Sharifli also stresses the importance of smaller schemes. “Vocational training and workshops, promoting more local workers rather than bringing Chinese workers in Central Asia. All these things are helping,” he said.

And it’s not only favorability that matters – perhaps more important to Beijing is using its educational system over the long term to acquire friends in high places. The best example of this sits in Kazakhstan’s Akorda palace. Kassym-Jomart Tokayev studied Chinese and was a diplomat there during the Soviet period.

Whether Ali and his classmates in Osh’s Confucius Institute reach such heights remains to be seen, but it’s certainly something to aim for.