On November 7, the World Bank Group published the Tajikistan Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR), highlighting the transformative potential of climate action for Tajikistan’s economy. The report suggests that addressing climate risks can drive economic renewal, create jobs, and enhance resilience against the rising frequency of extreme weather events caused by climate change.
Ozan Sevimli, World Bank Group Country Manager for Tajikistan, emphasized the urgency of a strategic shift: “Tajikistan urgently needs an economic reset to tackle its numerous development challenges and the growing impacts of climate change that threaten future progress. The CCDR provides a roadmap for accelerating the transition to a green economy, supporting long-term growth.”
A key finding of the report is the importance of mobilizing private-sector financing to supplement Tajikistan’s limited public resources. This financing will be crucial in securing the nation’s green transition and ensuring water, food, and energy security.
Despite ranking 130th globally in greenhouse gas emissions, Tajikistan is highly vulnerable to climate change impacts, notes Bahodur Sheralizoda, Chair of the Environmental Protection Committee under the Tajik government: “Although our contribution to global emissions is minimal, we are one of the most climate-vulnerable countries in the world. The CCDR advises the government to improve production efficiency, foster innovative technologies, and create green jobs to reduce our susceptibility to climate-related challenges.”
The report warns that Tajikistan already faces high risks of floods, earthquakes, and landslides, with potential infrastructure and agricultural losses that could lower GDP by 5-6% by 2050. The strategic Vakhsh River Basin, which produces 90% of the country’s electricity, underscores the dual challenges of climate and development. Annual costs of land degradation are estimated at $325 million, with further increases anticipated. Additionally, air pollution remains a major health risk, accounting for 84 deaths per 100,000 people—Central Asia’s second-highest rate.
A green transition could deliver substantial benefits. By 2050, reduced healthcare costs from lower air pollution, fewer road accidents, and improved road conditions could save over $3.5 billion. Investments in renewable energy, including hydro, solar, and geothermal, as well as in energy efficiency, promise new employment opportunities across sectors.
The report advises the Tajik government to fast-track low-carbon development to strengthen economic growth, energy security, export potential, and job creation, all while enhancing air quality. Achieving these goals will require significant investments: Tajikistan needs around $17 billion, in addition to the $79 billion required for the government’s reform agenda from 2025 to 2050. Private sector investments, particularly in energy, industry, and agriculture, will be essential.
Recognizing that the financial needs for this transformation exceed domestic resources, the report underscores the importance of external support. Tajikistan will need substantial technical and financial assistance from international bodies, climate funds, and development partners to fulfill its climate and development goals.
