The developing peace process between Russia and Ukraine, initiated by U.S. President Donald Trump, offers a glimmer of hope for stability. Yet Kazakhstan finds itself in a difficult position, caught in the crosshairs of a conflict that continues to spill across its borders, at least economically. Over the past few months, the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), through which more than 80% of Kazakhstan’s oil is exported, has become the target of repeated drone attacks linked to the war in Ukraine.
Despite a tentative ceasefire agreement, damage to CPC infrastructure continues. In mid-March, the Kavkazskaya oil depot in Russia’s Krasnodar region, part of the CPC system, suffered a major fire following a suspected Ukrainian drone attack. According to Reuters, the blaze lasted nearly a week before being extinguished, raising concerns about the vulnerability of energy infrastructure in the region.
Western outlets have confirmed that the CPC’s Kropotkinskaya pumping station was targeted around the same period. S&P Global reported that drone strikes on March 18-19 damaged a key facility transferring oil from rail tankers to the pipeline system. Business Insider noted the attack caused serious financial disruption, particularly for CPC shareholders such as Chevron-led Tengizchevroil.
Kazakhstani journalist Oleg Chervinsky has stated that the CPC was included in a ceasefire moratorium on mutual strikes, reportedly agreed upon by both sides. If accurate, the March attacks could suggest a violation of those terms. AP News has also highlighted ambiguity in the ceasefire framework, with Russia and Ukraine each accusing the other of non-compliance.
The economic stakes for Kazakhstan are high. According to oil and gas analyst Olzhas Baidildinov, the CPC distributed $1.3 billion in dividends in 2024, with KazMunayGas, Kazakhstan’s national oil company, receiving an estimated $250 million, approximately $85 million of which was channeled into the state budget.
At a time when Kazakhstan is still recovering from a budget deficit, further disruptions to CPC operations are more than technical, they threaten fiscal stability. Yet the response from Astana has remained subdued.
Political analyst Andrei Chebotarev recalled that following an an earlier attack in February, the Kazakh Ministry of Foreign Affairs pledged to engage with its Ukrainian counterparts. What emerged from those talks remains unclear. Chebotarev also noted that Ukraine has yet to appoint a new ambassador to Kazakhstan, despite generally constructive relations.
Fellow analyst Daniyar Ashimbayev has speculated that geopolitical rivalries may be at play, including competition with the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline and Kazakhstan’s recent overproduction within OPEC+, though these claims remain unverified.
In a brief official comment, Deputy Foreign Minister Alibek Kuantyrov confirmed that Kazakhstan remains in contact with Ukraine and that discussions are ongoing.
Meanwhile, the Ministry of Energy has stated that Kazakh oil continues to flow through the CPC pipeline without restriction. Yet, for many observers, Kazakhstan’s measured diplomacy, perhaps aimed at avoiding antagonism with either side, is beginning to feel inadequate. As key infrastructure remains exposed to cross-border conflict, the case for a firmer and more public diplomatic posture grows stronger.
