Over the past 30 years, cotton production in Tajikistan has dropped by a staggering 56%. Among the many contributing factors are a lack of investment, outdated agricultural technology, and, notably, climate change. While humanity is not yet capable of stopping climate change, there are ways to adapt, prevent or mitigate the consequences of natural disasters, glacier melt, droughts, and to preserve biodiversity.

Agricultural GDP is growing — but slowly

The agricultural sector is among the most vulnerable to climate change, yet it remains the cornerstone of food security in Tajikistan. Moreover, a significant portion of the population depends on agriculture for their livelihood.

According to official statistics, Tajikistan’s population exceeds 10 million, with more than 7 million living in rural areas. Of the total population, 60% are engaged in agricultural activities, while the official unemployment rate stands at 7.9%.

Data from the Agency on Statistics under the President of the Republic of Tajikistan shows that agriculture contributes approximately 25% of the country’s GDP and accounts for a similar share of exports. The sector also generates 35% of national tax revenues. Beyond food production, agriculture supplies raw materials to various industries, meaning that the livelihoods of countless small and medium-sized enterprises depend directly on its productivity.

Despite modest growth in gross agricultural output, the pace remains slow. At the same time, food prices continue to rise on domestic markets, making it increasingly difficult for families to afford a balanced diet. Local farmers and entrepreneurs often attribute price hikes to fluctuations in the U.S. dollar exchange rate, especially given the sector’s reliance on imported fertilizers, machinery, and packaging

Food Security at Risk

When measured in U.S. dollars, agricultural income has remained relatively stagnant—indicating a lack of real progress and underscoring the need for urgent reforms. Compounding the issue is Tajikistan’s annual population growth rate of 2.7%, which places additional strain on the food system. Without strategic investments in irrigation, land expansion, and climate-resilient technologies, the country risks facing a systemic food shortage in the coming decades.

According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), 60% of Tajikistan’s population suffers from food insecurity—meaning they lack sufficient access to the calories and nutrients needed for a healthy and active life.

An Idea in Need of Investment

Matlub Rakhmonov, an agricultural specialist, analyzed the impact of climate change on Tajikistan’s agrarian sector, particularly in horticulture.

“For more than ten years now, in several regions of Tajikistan, some small and medium-sized business owners involved in horticulture have not only failed to secure a full harvest, but have also incurred losses,” says Rakhmonov. “The reason for this is increasingly due to unusually warm days at the end of winter, which cause fruit-bearing trees to bloom prematurely. Then, in late April and early May, sharp cold snaps hit, the blossoms fall, and the resulting crops are destroyed.”

Moreover, climate change has led to frequent natural anomalies, causing some traditional tree species to stop responding to seasonal changes. In the past, Tajikistan made widespread efforts to implement intensive orchard farming, but some regions refrained, fearing low yields similar to previous years.

Today, many of those traditional trees have adapted and no longer rely on strict seasonality. As a result, they can now be used to establish intensive orchards at higher elevations—between 2,000 and 2,500 meters above sea level—a practice that was previously considered unfeasible.

Rakhmonov’s idea is quite promising, but likely not yet fully viable for Tajikistan, as such initiatives require significant investment. Innovative orchards are complex systems based on modern technology and include interactive elements.

Overall, Tajikistan has around 500 varieties of agricultural crops. The total area suitable for agriculture is 7.2 million hectares, most of which is used as pastureland for livestock. Arable land for crops amounts to just 675,000 hectares, of which only 470,000 hectares are irrigated. About 180,000 hectares of this land are devoted to orchards and vineyards.

Changing Hydrometeorological Conditions: A Growing Challenge for Agriculture

Climate change is already reshaping the structure of agricultural production in Tajikistan. A comparison of land use between 1991 and 2024 reveals significant shifts: cotton production has declined by 56%, while the area under grain cultivation has increased by more than 60%. These changes reflect not only evolving economic priorities but also farmers’ responses to increasingly unpredictable weather patterns.

Professor Qaisar Saddiq of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) explains: “In Tajikistan, 50–70% of arable land depends on irrigation, making it highly vulnerable to the projected reduction in river flow caused by accelerated glacier melt. This is particularly critical for water-intensive crops like cotton. Under high-emissions climate scenarios, we expect a moderate increase in extreme precipitation events and a significant rise in the number of hot days and tropical nights. These changes will likely lead to more frequent and intense droughts, directly affecting both the quality and quantity of agricultural yields.”

Three Key Vulnerabilities of Tajikistan’s Agricultural Sector

1. Climate Risks Droughts, floods, soil erosion, and pest outbreaks are reducing crop yields and threatening biodiversity. Adapting to these risks requires the development of climate-resilient crop varieties, efficient water and soil management, and the adoption of modern agricultural technologies.
2. Lack of Investment Limited access to credit, insurance, and modern markets hinders the sector’s modernization. Without adequate financial support, agriculture in Tajikistan struggles to remain competitive and expand its export potential.
3. Technological Backwardness The sector still relies heavily on outdated traditional methods. A lack of mechanization and skilled specialists leads to significant losses in productivity, resources, and income.

A Complex Problem Requires a Comprehensive Solution

It is clear that climate change is not the only factor undermining the resilience of Tajikistan’s agricultural sector. A combination of environmental, economic, and institutional challenges continues to erode its competitiveness. In 2024, cotton production remains in decline—down by 56% compared to 1991—while food prices continue to rise. These trends underscore the urgent need for systemic and long-term solutions.

Professor Qaisar Saddiq of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) offers several key recommendations:

• Promote sustainable water resource management in agriculture, including the modernization of irrigation systems and the adoption of water-saving technologies;
• Enhance climate literacy among farmers, agribusinesses, and financial institutions through training, advisory services, and access to climate data;
• Ensure access to weather and climate information for seasonal and long-term planning by the Ministry of Agriculture, local producers, and agricultural consultants;
• Support income diversification and risk-sharing strategies to strengthen the resilience of rural households and farming systems.

However, these recommendations must be accompanied by concrete state support. Many countries—both developed and developing—have already implemented such measures. For example, in 2023, the European Union introduced a new basic income support scheme for farmers, replacing previous greening and base payments. The average support was approximately €156 per hectare, while young farmers received up to €116 per hectare on land up to 120 hectares.

All of this points to a clear conclusion: climate adaptation must be approached holistically. Farmers cannot be left to face these challenges alone. Without coordinated financial, technological, and institutional support, Tajikistan risks not only losing its food security but also its historical status as a leading cotton producer in the post-Soviet region.