The two-week ceasefire announced after Pakistani mediation between Iran and the U.S. has reduced the risk of immediate escalation in the Strait of Hormuz, but disruptions to one of the key routes of global oil trade have already triggered structural changes in energy markets. Against this backdrop, Kazakhstan and other countries in the region are increasingly being viewed as alternative suppliers of hydrocarbons, at least from the perspective of South Korea and Japan.

Despite the agreement on a two-week pause, Iran has made it clear that it retains control over shipping in the strait, including the potential to impose restrictions and coordinate tanker movements with its military. This has heightened concerns among importers, many of whom depend heavily on this route.

The most notable shift is taking place in Asia. South Korea, which receives about 61% of its crude imports and 54% of its naphtha imports through the Strait of Hormuz, is sending a high-level delegation to Kazakhstan, Oman, and Saudi Arabia to seek alternative sources of supply. Talks in Astana are expected to focus on oil and naphtha for industrial use.

South Korea, Asia’s fourth-largest economy, has proven to be among the most vulnerable to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. In response, Seoul is taking urgent diplomatic and economic measures, with Presidential Chief of Staff Kang Hoon-sik traveling to Kazakhstan as a special envoy for strategic economic cooperation. The delegation includes representatives from relevant ministries and major energy companies, underscoring the urgency of the effort.

The purpose of the visit is not only to address a potential short-term shortfall but also to establish sustainable alternative supply channels. South Korea has already secured a 24 million-barrel supply deal with the UAE, and shipments are already arriving at its ports, though officials say that volume is still insufficient given the ongoing instability.

The government is coordinating efforts with private fuel importers and logistics operators to ensure uninterrupted supplies until tankers arrive at the country’s ports.

Kazakhstan, which possesses large oil fields including Kashagan, is emerging as a key candidate to partially replace Middle Eastern volumes. However, geography imposes clear limitations: oil from the region requires more complex logistics, including transit across the Caspian Sea and onward through the Caucasus or the Black Sea. This is compounded by a projected decline in the country’s oil production. In March, Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov stated that output could fall by 2-4 million tons by the end of 2026 due to disruptions linked to attacks on infrastructure belonging to the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), as well as fires at the Tengiz field.

Initial projections placed Kazakhstan’s 2026 oil production at 100.5 million tons, potentially a record level. However, the minister indicated that actual output will most likely fall short of this target.

Japan is also reassessing its supply strategy. With more than 90% of its oil traditionally sourced from the Middle East, Tokyo is considering increasing imports from Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan through projects involving the national company INPEX.

Japanese experts note that oil from the Caspian region is broadly similar in quality to Middle Eastern crude, making it easier to process at existing refineries. However, alternative transport routes, such as shipments via the Red Sea and Mediterranean, or around Africa, extend delivery times to between 25 and 55 days and significantly increase costs.

Overall, the current crisis may accelerate a long-term reassessment of the role of Central Asia and the South Caucasus in the global energy sector. However, any significant increase in supply will be constrained by infrastructure and transport limitations. Most of Kazakhstan’s oil exports continue to rely on routes passing through Russia, introducing an additional geopolitical dimension.

While negotiations between Tehran and Washington continue, markets are already reacting to perceived risks. Jet fuel and diesel prices in Europe have risen sharply, and EU officials are discussing emergency measures including delayed refinery maintenance, lower grid tariffs and electricity taxes, and a possible revival of some 2022-era crisis tools. Even so, a partial reallocation of supply flows could stimulate investment in alternative routes, including the Trans-Caspian corridor and the expansion of existing pipeline networks.