• KGS/USD = 0.01144 0%
  • KZT/USD = 0.00211 0%
  • TJS/USD = 0.10460 0.19%
  • UZS/USD = 0.00008 0%
  • TMT/USD = 0.28490 0%
  • KGS/USD = 0.01144 0%
  • KZT/USD = 0.00211 0%
  • TJS/USD = 0.10460 0.19%
  • UZS/USD = 0.00008 0%
  • TMT/USD = 0.28490 0%
  • KGS/USD = 0.01144 0%
  • KZT/USD = 0.00211 0%
  • TJS/USD = 0.10460 0.19%
  • UZS/USD = 0.00008 0%
  • TMT/USD = 0.28490 0%
  • KGS/USD = 0.01144 0%
  • KZT/USD = 0.00211 0%
  • TJS/USD = 0.10460 0.19%
  • UZS/USD = 0.00008 0%
  • TMT/USD = 0.28490 0%
  • KGS/USD = 0.01144 0%
  • KZT/USD = 0.00211 0%
  • TJS/USD = 0.10460 0.19%
  • UZS/USD = 0.00008 0%
  • TMT/USD = 0.28490 0%
  • KGS/USD = 0.01144 0%
  • KZT/USD = 0.00211 0%
  • TJS/USD = 0.10460 0.19%
  • UZS/USD = 0.00008 0%
  • TMT/USD = 0.28490 0%
  • KGS/USD = 0.01144 0%
  • KZT/USD = 0.00211 0%
  • TJS/USD = 0.10460 0.19%
  • UZS/USD = 0.00008 0%
  • TMT/USD = 0.28490 0%
  • KGS/USD = 0.01144 0%
  • KZT/USD = 0.00211 0%
  • TJS/USD = 0.10460 0.19%
  • UZS/USD = 0.00008 0%
  • TMT/USD = 0.28490 0%

Kazakhstan Launches Sweeping Reform of Law Enforcement System

President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has announced a major reform of Kazakhstan’s law enforcement system, signaling a new phase in his broader political modernization agenda. Experts view the initiative as a natural progression of his previous institutional reforms.

Crime Rates Decline, But Challenges Remain

At an expanded meeting of law enforcement agencies on June 23, President Tokayev tasked his administration and the Security Council with conducting a comprehensive analysis of the sector within one week. The resulting report is expected to openly identify shortcomings and offer targeted solutions.

Tokayev noted that since 2019, Kazakhstan’s streets have become “calmer and safer.” Overall, criminal offenses have nearly halved. Robberies, thefts, and hooliganism have decreased fourfold, and the murder rate has dropped by 30%. Crimes in public places have declined by 80%.

The president also highlighted progress in combating domestic violence. A 2024 law introduced harsher penalties, contributing to a 30% decrease in crimes against women and children in 2025. Over five years, crimes violating women’s rights have halved.

“The most important thing is that public awareness is changing. Our citizens show zero tolerance for cruelty and tyranny in the family. Victims of aggression and violence receive the necessary support,” Tokayev said.

Law enforcement agencies also intensified operations against drug-related crime this year. Eighty-three drug laboratories were dismantled, and drug seizures rose by 84%. Sentences for narcotics production have been strengthened, including the possibility of life imprisonment. Despite progress, Tokayev acknowledged persistent gaps that pose risks to national security.

Economic Transparency and Anti-Corruption Measures

The share of the shadow economy has declined from 23% of GDP in 2019 to 16%. While the figure remains high, Tokayev emphasized that the government continues to support law-abiding entrepreneurs while addressing unjustified criminal prosecutions of domestic businesses.

The president also underscored that the General Prosecutor’s Office is monitoring hundreds of infrastructure projects involving foreign investment, totaling 34 trillion tenge ($66 million).

Anti-corruption efforts remain a cornerstone of Tokayev’s agenda. Court-ordered funds confiscated from corrupt officials have financed public infrastructure: over the past three years, 150 billion tenge have been allocated to build 89 schools.

Amnesty and Penal Reform

In honor of the 30th anniversary of Kazakhstan’s Constitution, Tokayev announced an amnesty for more than 15,000 inmates. The clemency applies primarily to women, minors, and the elderly. Excluded are those convicted of corruption, terrorism, extremism, sexual crimes against minors, and other grave offenses.

Tokayev noted several recent judicial reforms, including the creation of a Constitutional Court, expanded powers for the human rights commissioner, and the abolition of the death penalty.

The president also advocated for adopting international best practices in rehabilitating convicts. “Their return to normal life will be the best proof of the success of prison reform,” he said, citing international models where inmates can earn “credits” toward early release through good behavior, education, and participation in cultural and athletic programs.

Tokayev called on local entrepreneurs to open production facilities in correctional institutions. “Such mutually beneficial partnerships are widespread abroad. The money earned will allow convicts to get back on their feet after release, and the skills they acquire will help them find decent jobs,” he stated.

A Broader Vision for Reform

Political analyst Marat Shibutov sees the reform of law enforcement as a logical next step in Tokayev’s phased approach to systemic change.

“First, the political system becomes more just, then the social support system, then the asset acquisition system, and now it has reached the law enforcement services,” Shibutov explained. He anticipates judicial reform will follow.

Shibutov emphasized that Tokayev consistently addresses the importance of legal culture. “No matter what progress is made, economic, digital, or technological, if laws are not respected, everything else loses meaning. This responsibility lies with every citizen. You can’t assign a police officer to everyone,” he said.

Shibutov also cited Tokayev’s view that Kazakhstan’s foundational moral values, often passed down through families and rooted in its rich historical traditions, remain crucial to building a just society.

Uzbekistan Leads Central Asia in U.S. Visa Rejections in 2024

In 2024, the United States rejected 64.41% of B-1/B-2 visa applications submitted by citizens of Uzbekistan, the highest refusal rate among Central Asian countries, according to the U.S. State Department. B-1/B-2 visas are issued for short-term travel related to business and tourism.

Uzbekistan has consistently topped the region in visa denials. In 2023, the rejection rate for Uzbek applicants stood at 59.56%. The trend reflects continued challenges faced by Uzbek travelers in securing U.S. entry permits.

The refusal rates for other Central Asian countries in 2024 were also significant:

  • Turkmenistan: 58.8%
  • Kazakhstan: 46.29%
  • Tajikistan: 45.24%
  • Kyrgyzstan: 39.14%

Similar patterns were observed in 2023, with Turkmenistan at 51.10%, Kazakhstan at 41.93%, Tajikistan at 54.96%, and Kyrgyzstan at 41.54%.

Trade Volumes Remain Low Across the Region

Trade between Central Asia and the United States remains limited. In 2024, Uzbekistan exported only $42.4 million worth of goods to the U.S., while its total foreign trade turnover reached $66 billion, highlighting the minimal share of U.S.-bound exports.

Kazakhstan remains the region’s largest trading partner with the United States. Bilateral trade in 2024 reached $3.4 billion, primarily driven by exports of crude oil, uranium, and silver. Notably, only $95.2 million of Kazakhstan’s exports to the U.S. are expected to be impacted by new U.S. tariffs, a small fraction of the country’s total trade volume of $141.4 billion.

Other Central Asian nations also maintain modest trade flows with the U.S.:

  • Kyrgyzstan exported $16.7 million in goods, with a total trade turnover of $16 billion.
  • Tajikistan exported $4.6 million, out of a total trade turnover of $8.9 billion.

Limited Mobility and Economic Ties

The data underscores broader limitations in U.S.-Central Asia engagement both in terms of mobility and economic integration. High visa refusal rates continue to hinder travel for business and personal reasons, while trade volumes remain a marginal component of most Central Asian economies.

While diplomatic and economic ties between Washington and the region have grown in recent years, the figures suggest that significant barriers to deeper cooperation remain.

Uzbekistan and Mongolia Sign Joint Declaration to Deepen Bilateral Ties

President of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev arrived in Mongolia on June 24 for a historic state visit at the invitation of President Ukhnaagiin Khurelsukh. This marks the first official visit by a Uzbek head of state to Mongolia, signaling a significant step forward in bilateral relations.

The official welcoming ceremony took place at Sukhbaatar Square in central Ulaanbaatar, where the two leaders reviewed an honor guard and greeted members of their respective delegations as national anthems were performed.

In formal talks, both presidents reaffirmed their countries’ commitment to deepening cooperation. President Mirziyoyev expressed gratitude for Mongolia’s warm reception, and extended congratulations in advance of the country’s upcoming People’s Revolution Day celebrations.

Expanding Economic Cooperation

Discussions focused on strengthening economic ties, including cooperation in healthcare, education, e-commerce, agriculture, and construction materials. A recent Uzbek-Mongolian business forum held in Ulaanbaatar highlighted growing commercial engagement, while the opening of a Trade House for Uzbek goods in the Mongolian capital further cemented trade ties.

The two presidents emphasized the importance of expanding trade in high value-added products, and expressed readiness to finalize agreements on preferential trade and investment protection. Areas such as mining, technology transfer, and vocational training were also on the agenda. To support these initiatives, Uzbekistan’s Ministry of Geology has opened a representative office in Ulaanbaatar.

Agro-Industrial Development and Connectivity

Agro-industrial collaboration will be advanced through the creation of joint clusters in meat, dairy, wool, and leather processing. Both sides are also exploring the possibility of launching direct flights between Tashkent and Ulaanbaatar by the end of 2025 to facilitate business and tourism.

Humanitarian and Educational Exchange

Humanitarian cooperation featured prominently in the dialogue. The leaders agreed to resume educational exchange programs, enabling Mongolian students to study at universities in Uzbekistan, thereby strengthening cultural and academic ties.

Formalizing a Comprehensive Partnership

The visit concluded with the signing of a joint declaration establishing a comprehensive partnership, outlining key areas for long-term cooperation and reaffirming mutual commitment to deeper ties. President Mirziyoyev also invited President Khurelsukh for a reciprocal visit to Uzbekistan.

Kyrgyzstan Seeks Credit Rating Upgrade from Moody’s

Kyrgyzstan is aiming to secure an upgrade to its sovereign credit rating following a visit by a delegation from international ratings agency Moody’s, and meetings with top government officials, including Minister of Economy and Commerce Bakyt Sydykov.

During the discussions, Sydykov presented Moody’s analysts with an overview of Kyrgyzstan’s socio-economic performance, ongoing structural reforms, and fiscal priorities. He formally requested that Moody’s consider raising the country’s credit rating.

“The Kyrgyz Cabinet is consistently implementing policies aimed at maintaining macroeconomic stability, fostering a competitive environment, and enhancing social protections for our citizens,” Sydykov stated. He noted that these measures are improving the investment climate and strengthening the country’s financial position.

Moody’s delegation also held separate consultations with representatives from the Ministry of Finance, the National Bank, and other key state institutions. The agency’s analysts focused on Kyrgyzstan’s fiscal policy, public debt sustainability, long-term economic growth prospects, and its investment climate.

Government officials said that comprehensive data on macroeconomic indicators and policy initiatives were shared during what they described as a “constructive” dialogue. The consultations are seen as an important step in Kyrgyzstan’s engagement with international financial institutions.

Moody’s currently assigns Kyrgyzstan a long-term sovereign credit rating of B3 with a stable outlook. This rating places the country in the speculative category, implying elevated credit risk, but with no immediate threat of default.

In 2023, Moody’s revised Kyrgyzstan’s outlook from “negative” to “stable.” The agency at the time cited concerns over the nationalization of the Kumtor gold mine and the potential impact of Western sanctions on Russia, Kyrgyzstan’s primary trading partner. However, the feared capital flight and deterioration in economic indicators did not materialize.

Despite this, Moody’s has continued to flag key vulnerabilities, including high levels of state intervention in the economy, lingering risks linked to domestic political instability, and the unpredictability of some government decisions.

The next sovereign rating update from Moody’s is expected later this year.

EDB Forecasts Kazakhstan’s GDP Growth to Accelerate to 5.5% in 2025

Kazakhstan’s gross domestic product (GDP) is projected to grow by 5.5% in 2025, up from an estimated 4.8% in 2024, according to the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB). The forecast suggests this growth rate will be sustained through 2026 and 2027.

“We expect Kazakhstan’s economic growth to accelerate to 5.5% in 2025 after 4.8% in 2024, with these rates remaining unchanged in 2026-2027,” said Aigul Berdigulova, Senior Analyst at the EDB’s Country Analysis Center, during the presentation of the bank’s macroeconomic forecast.

She emphasized that government initiatives to boost investment, particularly through the national holding company Baiterek, will be pivotal. Funding volumes for the economy are expected to reach KZT 8 trillion (approximately $15.2 billion), equivalent to about 6% of GDP. “This measure will help unlock investment potential in manufacturing, transport, and construction,” Berdigulova said.

According to the EDB, these investment-backed policies are expected to counterbalance external shocks. Additional growth drivers include expansion at the Tengiz oil field, projected to contribute 0.4 to 0.6 percentage points to GDP growth in 2025, and ongoing fiscal stimulus, regional development efforts, and infrastructure projects.

Kazakhstan ranks fourth among the EDB’s member states in terms of projected GDP growth for 2025, following Kyrgyzstan (10.3%), Tajikistan (8.4%), and Uzbekistan (6.5%). It is on par with Armenia (5.5%) and ahead of Belarus (3%) and Russia (2%).

Inflation Set to Rise in 2025

Despite the optimistic growth forecast, inflationary pressures are expected to intensify. The EDB projects Kazakhstan’s inflation rate will reach 11.9% in 2025, its highest among the bank’s member countries.

“Inflation in Kazakhstan is rising this year due to the weakening of the tenge observed at the end of 2024,” Berdigulova explained. She also pointed to continued increases in utility tariffs and inflation expectations amid discussions of tax and budget reforms, including a planned VAT hike.

Inflation is expected to peak in the second quarter of 2026 before declining to around 8.5% by 2027. For comparison, Armenia is forecast to have the lowest inflation among EDB members at just 3.1%.

According to preliminary data from Kazakhstan’s Ministry of National Economy, the country’s GDP grew by 6% year-on-year in the January-May 2025 period.

However, not all institutions are as optimistic. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) recently revised its 2025 forecast for Kazakhstan’s GDP downward, from 5.2% to 4.9%.

After High Hopes, Central Asia Views Iran Trade Routes with More Caution

Like some Central Asian neighbors, Uzbekistan is urgently reviewing possible changes to some trade routes because of conflict in the Middle East, even though that could entail sharply higher transport costs. The contingency planning follows a surge in trade talks between officials from Iran and countries in Central Asia earlier this year, prior to the intense strikes that Israel and Iran launched at each other this month.

A ceasefire between Israel and Iran appeared to be holding on Wednesday, but questions remain about Iran’s ability to build a nuclear bomb even after the U.S. attacked Iranian nuclear sites. U.S. President Donald Trump said the sites were “obliterated,” but, according to some Western media organizations, a preliminary U.S. intelligence report concluded that the U.S. attacks may have only set back Iran’s nuclear program by months. A June 25 statement by the Central Intelligence Agency says that “Iran’s nuclear program has been severely damaged by the recent, targeted strikes.”

Against this murky backdrop, and the partial uncertainty over Central Asia’s extensive web of trade links, Uzbekistan is reviewing transport and logistics arrangements to keep its economy and connections with international partners running as smoothly as possible. Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev discussed options with key advisers at a meeting on Monday.

“The military actions that have taken place in the Middle East in recent days have further aggravated the already unstable situation. This cannot but affect Uzbekistan’s foreign economic relations and access to world markets,” Uzbekistan’s presidential office said.

“In particular, the need to diversify export routes and redirect cargo to other, safer ports was noted. According to preliminary estimates, this could lead to an increase in transportation costs by up to 30%. In this regard, instructions were given to coordinate alternative routes with partner countries and support export-oriented enterprises,” the presidency said.

It said the trade and transport ministers, as well as other key officials, have been instructed to help business groups with export-import operations and finding new sales markets. Maintaining price stability in the domestic market and sustainable production rates are also key concerns.

Last month, Uzbek and Iranian officials met in Tehran and agreed to expand trade between their countries to an annual $2 billion, four times the current amount. Iranian ports offer Central Asian exporters access to the Indian Ocean and international markets beyond.

“The five Central Asian republics — Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan — are increasingly seeking alternatives to the traditional transit routes that have tied them to Moscow or made them dependent on Chinese infrastructure,” said a commentary posted by the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, an Israel-based group that studies Mideast security and foreign policy.

“Iran offers an appealing option: a gateway to the Persian Gulf and Indian Ocean, access to European markets via Turkey, and industrial and technological partnerships that diversify the region’s economic relationships,” said the analysis, which was published on June 4, shortly before the recent round of fighting between Israel and Iran.

Officials in Kazakhstan have warned of disruption to southern logistics routes, specifically a railway that runs from Kazakhstan through Turkmenistan and into Iran. But Economy Minister Serik Zhumangarin has said contingencies are available and that it’s too early to say how the situation will evolve.

Turkmenistan shares a border with Iran and its gas export plans could face challenges from protracted uncertainty in the region.