The reported discussions this week between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin have become a central focus for global media and analysts. However, for Central Asia, the most pressing question is not when the war in Ukraine will end—an outcome that could occur as unexpectedly as the contact between U.S. and Russian leaders—but what Russia’s next move will be. The future actions of Moscow remain a primary concern for the five Central Asian countries.

On February 12, Donald Trump announced via his social network, Truth Social, that he had a lengthy phone conversation with Vladimir Putin. His main message was that both leaders had agreed on the need to end the war and would take immediate action. The day before, Trump told reporters at the White House that members of his negotiating team and Putin’s representatives would meet in Munich.

Despite skepticism from many analysts who anticipated a longer negotiation process, talks are already scheduled to begin on Valentine’s Day.

In the same post, Trump revealed the composition of his negotiating team:

“I have asked Secretary of State Marco Rubio, CIA Director John Ratcliffe, National Security Advisor Michael Waltz, and Ambassador and Special Representative Steve Witkoff to lead the negotiations.”

Although the details of Trump’s proposed peace plan remain under discussion, a rough outline has emerged from various sources which involve:

• A freeze in fighting along the current front line.
• The establishment of a demilitarized zone spanning the entire 1,300-kilometer front.
• Deployment of a European military contingent, including UK troops, to patrol the demilitarized zone (U.S. troops will not be involved, but may provide training and logistical support).
• A 20-year postponement of Ukraine’s NATO membership bid in exchange for continued Western arms supplies.
• Recognition of Russian sovereignty over occupied territories.
• Security guarantees for Ukraine from European countries.
• A possible EU membership pathway for Ukraine by 2030.
• A 10-year reconstruction plan for Ukraine, funded by European countries and Russian contributions.
• A gradual lifting of sanctions on Russia’s energy sector over several years.
• Reimbursement of U.S. military aid to Ukraine through Ukrainian natural resource revenues.
• Presidential and parliamentary elections in Ukraine in 2025, especially if a settlement is reached between Kyiv and Moscow.

If Russia accepts these terms, they are likely to be included in the final draft of the agreement. Notably, Trump’s plan takes Moscow’s interests into account, though some points were reportedly rejected during the February 12 call. The depth of the proposal suggests that Trump’s team and Putin’s representatives have been in contact for some time, well before Trump’s formal inauguration as U.S. president.

Trump first hinted at such talks in March 2023,  when he claimed he could resolve the Russia-Ukraine conflict within 24 hours of taking office. At the time, many dismissed this as election rhetoric. However, recent events suggest that he is following through on his promises. A striking example is the release of Mark Vogel, an American sentenced in Russia to 14 years in prison for marijuana possession. His return to the U.S. was part of a broader “grand bargain” on Ukraine.

“Promises made, promises kept. President Trump promised the Vogel family that he would bring Mark home. After three and a half years in Russian custody, Mark is finally free,” said U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

Meanwhile, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev had previously given increasingly direct signals about what may happen in the second half of 2024.

During a meeting with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz last September, Tokayev spoke about the Ukraine conflict at Scholz’s request: “It is a fact that Russia is militarily invincible. Further escalation will lead to irreparable consequences for all of humanity and, above all, for the countries directly involved in the conflict. A good opportunity for a truce was lost with the rejection of the Istanbul Agreement, but peace is still possible.”

A month later, at the Astana Think Tank Forum, Tokayev reinforced this stance: “As I said during my talks with Chancellor Scholz, Russia is militarily invincible. Its military potential, public support for President Putin, and historical precedent confirm this. We must seek a peaceful resolution and support all realistic proposals, including those from China and Brazil.”

Given Tokayev’s ties to Russian diplomats, it is likely that by mid-2024, he had already learned about preparations for a settlement in Ukraine, which could explain his repeated calls for caution.

Kazakhstan’s diplomatic signals became even clearer in November 2024 when it hosted Putin for a high-profile state visit. Earlier that month, Tokayev met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov to discuss the agenda.

A report cited by the Financial Times, allegedly presented at a strategic session led by Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin in April 2024, suggests that Moscow plans to create a Eurasian trade bloc to compete with the U.S., EU, and China.

Regarding Central Asia, the report warns that Russia must “play the long game” to maintain its influence. It notes that regional governments have been shifting away from Moscow’s orbit by increasing integration into the Organization of Turkic States; promoting English as a second language over Russian, adopting Western education systems, and sending elites to study abroad.

The report concludes that Central Asia will ultimately have to “decide on its position vis-à-vis Russia.”

This analysis implies that by early 2024, Moscow’s leadership had some confidence that the Ukraine war could soon end. If Trump and Putin’s teams had already reached a basic understanding by spring, it would explain Russia’s heightened focus on securing its influence in Central Asia.

As part of this strategy, during 2024 Russia took steps to strengthen its ties with Kazakhstan, a key regional gateway. Tokayev’s decision to attend Moscow’s May 9 Victory Day Parade further aligned Astana with the Kremlin’s vision. The parade’s guest list was noteworthy: it included all five Central Asian leaders, and Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Central Asia may soon find itself at the very heart of a new geopolitical order.