Page 4 – The Times Of Central Asia

12 Dec 2025

Kazakhstan, Home, Business & Economy, Kazakhstan Business & Economy, Features, Kazakhstan Featurees

Kazakhstan Looks to Reduce Dependence on Russian Oil Transit Routes

December 15, 2025
By Aliya Haidar

Escalating drone attacks on Russian infrastructure amid the ongoing war in Ukraine, including key facilities in Novorossiysk and the Orenburg region, are compelling Kazakhstan to accelerate its search for alternative oil export routes. In this context, the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), which transits Russian territory, is increasingly viewed as an unreliable option for transporting the country’s crude oil.

In November, damage to the VPU-2 single-point mooring at the Yuzhnaya Ozereyevka terminal near Novorossiysk disrupted operations. Only VPU-1 remains functional, while VPU-3 is undergoing scheduled maintenance. As a result, CPC oil shipments have dropped. The pipeline accounts for over 80% of Kazakhstan’s oil exports, more than 1% of global production. The Kazakh Ministry of Energy clarified that exports were not fully halted and that efforts are underway to reroute shipments.

First Kashagan Oil Shipment to China via Atasu-Alashankou

On December 8, Reuters reported that Kazakhstan would begin exporting oil from the Kashagan field directly to China for the first time via the Atasu-Alashankou pipeline. The route, which leads to Xinjiang, has previously been used for other fields but not for Kashagan.

According to the report, Kazakhstan plans to export 50,000 tons of crude oil through this channel. Of that, the Chinese oil company, China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), will receive approximately 30,000 tons, while Japan’s Inpex will take 20,000 tons. Although the pipeline’s annual capacity is around 10 million tons, it has been operating below capacity, averaging 85,000-86,000 tons per month.

The Kazakh government had initially planned to ship 1 million tons via this pipeline in 2025, less than the 1.2 million tons exported in 2024. In the first ten months of 2025, shipments reached 858,000 tons, according to industry sources.

Kashagan is among Kazakhstan’s most strategic assets and one of the largest oil and gas fields discovered globally in the past 40 years. Operated by the NCOC consortium, which includes ExxonMobil, Shell, TotalEnergies, CNPC, Inpex, and KazMunayGas, the field produces more than 15 million tons of oil annually. Until now, nearly all of this was transported via the CPC.

Redirecting Oil Amid Infrastructure Damage

On December 10, KazTransOil, the national oil pipeline operator, announced that it had redirected oil exports from the CPC system to alternative routes. In December 2025 alone, an additional 360,000 tons of oil are expected to be exported to Russia (via Samara), China, and across the Caspian Sea. Increases in exports from the original plan include: Atyrau-Samara pipeline: +232,000 tons; To China: +72,000 tons; and through the port of Aktau to the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline: +58,000 tons.

KazTransOil has also stated it will allow oil companies to temporarily store oil at its tank farm. This would enable greater flexibility in shipment scheduling, optimize pipeline operations, and help maintain uninterrupted deliveries. Rail transport is also being considered to further diversify logistics.

In 2024, Kazakhstan exported 54.9 million tons of oil through the CPC. Additional exports included 8.8 million tons via the Atyrau-Samara pipeline, 3.6 million tons via Aktau, and 1.2 million tons to China via Atasu-Alashankou.

The BTC pipeline, operational since 2006, stretches 1,768 kilometers, 443 km through Azerbaijan, 249 km through Georgia, and 1,076 km through Turkey. Some oil from Aktau port is routed into the BTC, offering an alternative pathway to the Mediterranean and Turkish markets. In 2024, 1.4 million tons of Kazakh crude were transported via this route.

The BTC pipeline’s capacity is 50 million tons per year. Under the current agreement, Kazakhstan is permitted to export 1.5 million tons annually through this channel, with Azerbaijan open to increasing this to 2.2 million tons.

Acknowledging the Limits

Despite efforts to expand export options, Kazakhstan’s Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov admitted on December 9 that the country currently lacks a full-scale alternative to the CPC. “To date, there is no alternative to the CPC; we must admit this. Other routes cannot match the volume it transports, which is 65 million tons,” the minister said.

Strategic Role and European Partnerships

Kazakhstan continues to play a critical role in ensuring energy security for both Europe and Asia. On December 8, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev met with European Council President António Costa to discuss strengthening energy cooperation. The talks covered the stability of energy supplies and explored partnerships in critical minerals, nuclear energy, petrochemicals, and renewable energy sources.

Kazakhstan is aiming to move beyond its role as a raw material supplier by enhancing domestic processing and increasing the production of value-added products. According to Eurostat, the country ranks third in oil exports to Europe, accounting for 13% of supply, behind the U.S. (30%) and Norway (20%). The need for diversified export routes has thus become more urgent than ever.

12 Dec 2025

Business & Economy, Kazakhstan, Kazakhstan Business & Economy

ACRA Raises Kazakhstan Economic Growth Forecast

December 12, 2025
By Dmitry Pokidaev

The Analytical Credit Rating Agency (ACRA) has released its updated forecast for Kazakhstan’s economy for 2026-2028, projecting annual growth of 5.3-5.9%. These figures exceed the government’s recent targets. According to the published report, the next three years will mark a period of accelerated expansion, driven by industry and construction, alongside strengthening value chains in services and agribusiness.

The government’s earlier forecast projected GDP growth of 5.4% in 2026, followed by stabilization at 5.3%. While ACRA offers a more optimistic outlook, it notes that achieving the targeted 6% growth will require a sharp increase in investment activity and a boost in foreign exchange earnings from exports. The agency also warns that accelerating growth may carry the risk of economic overheating and a new wave of inflation.

Investment remains the weak link in Kazakhstan’s growth model. From 2021 to 2025, investment accounted for only 15% of GDP, significantly lower than in comparable economies and previous periods of rapid expansion. For example, during 2010-2014, investment levels held at 18%, and in earlier years, they reached as high as 20-22%. Without restoring higher investment levels, sustaining growth above 5.5% could prove difficult.

Inflation risks also remain elevated. Contributing factors include household inflation expectations, imported inflation from neighboring countries, accelerated lending, and rising global food prices. Nevertheless, ACRA forecasts inflation to decline from 11.8% in 2025 to 8% in 2026, 6.2% in 2027, and 5.1% in 2028. The tenge is expected to gradually weaken to 555 per $ in 2026, 574 in 2027, and 594 in 2028.

ACRA highlights three major risks over the next three years. The first is export and logistics vulnerabilities. Kazakhstan’s primary oil export route continues to run through Novorossiysk, and any disruption along this corridor would quickly impact the current account and put downward pressure on the tenge.

The second risk concerns fiscal discipline. Rising expenditures are increasing reliance on transfers from the National Fund, which could reignite inflationary pressures if not managed prudently.

The third is the depreciation of the Russian ruble. A weaker ruble boosts imports, reduces exports, and worsens Kazakhstan’s trade balance.

While ACRA considers the likelihood of these risks occurring simultaneously to be low, their combined impact could seriously challenge Kazakhstan’s growth outlook.

As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev expects Kazakhstan’s GDP to grow by 6% in 2025, surpassing the $300 billion threshold for the first time.

12 Dec 2025

Central Asia, Home, International Affairs, Kazakhstan, Kazakhstan International Affairs, Kazakhstan Home

Kazakhstan and Iran Discuss Trade on Pezeshkian’s Visit to Astana

December 12, 2025
By Dmitry Pokidaev

Kazakhstan and Iran have announced plans to significantly deepen economic cooperation, aiming to triple bilateral trade turnover to $1 billion in the coming years. The announcement was made by Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev during the Kazakh-Iranian business forum, held as part of the official visit of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian to Astana.

According to Tokayev, mutual trade exceeded $340 million last year and is expected to “increase many times over” in 2024. The two countries have set an initial target of reaching $1 billion in trade, with an eventual goal of $2 billion, relying on expanded logistics and the establishment of sustainable supply chains. A key mechanism will be the opening of the Kazakhstan Trade House in Tehran, intended to facilitate systematic exports of Kazakhstani products.

Over the past two decades, Iran has invested more than $226 million in Kazakhstan’s economy, and more than 350 Iranian companies currently operate in the country. Tokayev emphasized Kazakhstan’s readiness to initiate new joint projects across sectors ranging from industry to agribusiness.

Strengthening corridors and access to the Persian Gulf

Tokayev highlighted the development of transport and logistics infrastructure as a primary enabler of increased trade. Kazakhstan, he noted, is a vital transit hub in Eurasia, with 85% of cargo between China and Europe passing through its territory.

Astana plans to construct a transport and logistics terminal at the port of Shahid Rajai, linking Kazakhstan’s ports of Aktau and Kuryk with the Iranian ports of Amirabad and Anzali. The Kazakh side also expressed readiness to integrate the ports of Bandar Abbas and Chabahar into the regional supply chain.

The Kazakhstan-Turkmenistan-Iran railway plays a central role in these plans. Traffic volumes along this corridor are expected to double by 2030, delivering a substantial boost to regional trade and industrial development.

Key market for Kazakh grain

Iran remains a key buyer of Kazakh grain. In the first 10 months of 2024 alone, exports reached $280 million. Total agricultural trade between the two countries stood at $220 million in 2023, underscoring the sector’s growth potential.

Iran’s Solico Group plans to build a dairy plant with an annual capacity of 200,000 tons and launch baby food production. Meanwhile, Kourosh Food Industry is exploring opportunities to establish vegetable oil plants and poultry farms.

Kazakhstan, in turn, is inviting Iranian investors to participate in modern manufacturing projects and develop export-oriented supply chains.

A shared challenge: the declining Caspian Sea

The environmental situation in the Caspian region was another key topic of discussion. Falling sea levels are already affecting port operations, logistics, and fish stocks. Tokayev called for the creation of an intergovernmental program to preserve the Caspian Sea and urged greater involvement from international organizations.

Kazakhstan intends to take part in the upcoming VII Caspian Summit in Tehran and has proposed hosting the IV Caspian Economic Forum within the next two years.

Pezeshkian noted that the private sector has already identified promising areas for collaboration from the creation of a joint shipping consortium on the Caspian to the development of mineral projects and the opening of an export park for Iranian building materials in Almaty.

As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, regular container traffic has now been launched between Russia and Iran via Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, further enhancing regional trade connectivity.

12 Dec 2025

Central Asia, Home, Uzbekistan, Local Politics, Uzbekistan Home, Uzbekistan Local Politics

Uzbekistan, Paraguay Deepen Ties During First-Ever Presidential Visit

December 12, 2025
By Sadokat Jalolova

Uzbekistan and Paraguay have agreed to enhance political and economic cooperation following high-level talks in Tashkent, according to the presidential press service.

The meeting between Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev and Paraguayan President Santiago Peña took place at the Kuksaroy residence, with participation from both countries’ official delegations. Mirziyoyev welcomed his counterpart and highlighted the historical significance of the visit, noting it as the first time a president from a Latin American country has traveled to Uzbekistan. The visit is expected to usher in a new era of bilateral relations.

The two leaders discussed expanding cooperation across several sectors. Talks focused on increasing mutual trade, strengthening business contacts, and initiating joint projects in agriculture, food production, the chemical industry, digital technologies, tourism, and sports. Cultural, educational, and humanitarian collaboration were also emphasized as priority areas. The sides also exchanged views on international and regional developments.

Following the talks, Mirziyoyev and Peña signed a joint statement reaffirming their commitment to strengthening political dialogue and expanding practical cooperation. Uzbek media reported that two additional documents were signed in the presence of the presidents: a protocol concluding bilateral market-access negotiations related to Uzbekistan’s accession to the World Trade Organization, and a memorandum between the foreign ministries to establish a mechanism for political consultations.

The meeting concluded with a symbolic gesture. The two presidents planted a tree on the Alley of Honored Guests at the Kuksaroy residence, symbolizing their intention to open a new chapter in Uzbekistan-Paraguay relations.

12 Dec 2025

Business & Economy, Kyrgyzstan, Kyrgyzstan Business & Economy

Kyrgyzstan Advances Underground Project at Kumtor Mine

December 12, 2025
By Anton Chipegin

The state-owned Kumtor Gold Company, Kyrgyzstan’s largest gold mining asset, has announced the high efficiency of its new underground mining operations. According to the company, up to 5 grams of gold can be extracted from each ton of ore mined using the underground method. Experts believe this yield is sufficient to ensure the long-term viability of the deposit.

Although underground mining was officially launched in August 2025, actual excavation began in February. In a response to The Times of Central Asia, the company reported that geological reserves in the underground zones of Kumtor are estimated at 147 tons of gold, enabling the mine to remain operational for at least another 17 years.

“Two tunnels are currently being developed. Poor ore is being mined at the moment, and the system is reaching its design capacity. Full-scale production will be achieved in the coming years,” the company stated.

To date, over 1.5 kilometers of underground tunnels have been excavated at Kumtor. Operations continue around the clock, with special equipment transporting ore out of the mine every ten minutes. To maintain a safe working environment in the high-altitude, cold conditions, warm air is pumped into the tunnels to ensure worker comfort and safety.

Kumtor was nationalized in 2022 after nearly 30 years of operation by the Canadian company Centerra Gold. The previous operator had planned to complete mining operations in 2024 and begin land reclamation. While underground mining was explored in 2015, it was deemed unprofitable at the time, in part due to low global gold prices.

Today, gold is trading at approximately $4,280 per ounce, around $1,000 more than five years ago. This price increase has significantly improved the profitability of underground extraction, making the project economically viable.

12 Dec 2025

Environment, Tajikistan, Tajikistan Environment

Tajikistan Struggles to Fund Cleanup of Soviet-Era Uranium Waste

December 12, 2025
By Vagit Ismailov

Tajikistan continues to grapple with the extensive environmental legacy of the Soviet-era uranium industry. Tens of millions of tons of radioactive waste still pose serious risks to human health and the environment. Addressing this legacy will require hundreds of millions of dollars and sustained international support.

Uranium mining in Tajikistan began in the 1940s in areas including Taboshar, Adrasman, and nearby settlements. After mining operations were shut down, the country was left with abandoned mines, underground tunnels, and extensive tailings ponds containing more than 55 million tons of radioactive waste across an area exceeding 170 hectares.

In 2023, partial rehabilitation work was completed in Taboshar, where 7.6 million tons of waste, representing 17.5 percent of the total, were remediated.

The Tajik government has agreed to continue cooperation with Russia, which is expected to allocate approximately $17 million for the reclamation of selected facilities.

However, the most hazardous areas remain unaddressed. These include early-stage Taboshar tailings ponds, underground workings, and the Degmai complex.

International consultants Wismut GmbH, WISUTEC GmbH, and GEOS estimate that restoring the Taboshar facilities will require approximately $9.5 million, while reclamation of the Degmai tailings pond is expected to cost about $27 million. All of these sites are included in the International Atomic Energy Agency master plan and have been designated as funding priorities.

Progress remains slow, largely due to limited financial resources. Despite some external support, current funding levels fall far short of what is required. To date, only 17 percent of contaminated sites have been decontaminated. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development special environmental rehabilitation account for Central Asia has yet to become fully operational.

In 2025, the government approved a national rehabilitation program covering the 2025 to 2030 period. The plan includes legislative updates, project design, implementation, and ongoing monitoring.

Preliminary estimates suggest Tajikistan will need more than $110 million by 2030 to complete its remediation objectives. Given the scale of the required investment, international financing remains essential.

Tajikistan is working to transform its uranium legacy into a manageable and transparent project, but without sustained international partnership, the challenge is unlikely to be resolved.