Two projects that successive governments in Kyrgyzstan over the course of more than three decades have promoted as key to the country’s long-term success appear to finally be making progress.
The idea for the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan (CKU) railway dates back to the early days of Kyrgyzstan’s independence, and plans for construction of the massive Kambar-Ata-1 hydropower plant (HPP) go back even further, to the Soviet-era.
After all these years, these aspirations that have almost faded into dreams are set to be realized.
All Aboard
On December 27, Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov took part in a ceremony near the southern city of Jalal-Abad to launch construction of Kyrgyzstan’s section of the CKU railway.
The idea of a trans-Asian railway that would run from China into Kyrgyzstan and on to points further west goes back to the first meeting on Central Asian presidents in December 1991 in Ashgabat, Turkmenistan.
It was a lofty ambition from five leaders whose countries had been independent for barely three months, but then-Kyrgyz President Askar Akayev followed up on the proposal, discussing the railway project with Chinese leaders when he visited Beijing in May 1992. That was more than one year before the first road border crossing opened between the two countries.
By the end of the 1990s, the scope of the project had narrowed to a railway connecting China, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan, though it was often vaguely mentioned the line could be part of a longer railway connecting China to Europe through Central Asia. The topic of the CKU railway was always part of the agenda for every Kyrgyz president whenever they met with Chinese leaders.
In June 2001, then-Kyrgyz transport and communications minister Kubanychbek
Jumaliyev announced his country would sign an inter-governmental agreement with China and Uzbekistan on construction of the railway. At that time, Jumaliyev said some 250 kilometers of the line would pass through Kyrgyzstan and the cost of construction of the whole line would be about $2.3 billion.
According to the latest plans for the route, CKU railway will be 486 kilometers, from Kashgar in China’s western Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region to Torugart on the Kyrgyz-China border, then through the Kyrgyz cities of Makmal and Jalal-Abad to Andijon in Uzbekistan.
The distance is not great, but the mountainous landscape of Kyrgyzstan through which the route will pass presents some formidable challenges. The 312 kilometers that will run through Kyrgyzstan requires construction of 81 bridges and 41 tunnels that will account for some 120 kilometers of the 312-kilometer Kyrgyz section of the railway.
According to some sources, including Akylbek Japarov, who until December 16 was chairman of Kyrgyzstan’s Cabinet of Ministers, the estimated cost of building the entire railway is now put at some $8 billion. Cash-strapped Kyrgyzstan is expected to pay some $4.7 billion of that, and has already agreed to accept a Chinese loan of some $2.35 billion.
The advantages for Kyrgyzstan will not come quickly, but they should come eventually.
Simply being better connected to markets in Europe and China (and from China to South Korea and Japan) would help Kyrgyzstan’s trade.
The transit fees will also one day benefit Kyrgyzstan, though former Cabinet Chairman Japarov said initially much of the money from transit fees will be used to pay off the Chinese loan for the Kyrgyz section of the railway.
In August 2019, then-Kyrgyz Transport Minister Janat Beyshenov said the railway would help open up 23 mining sites that would be along or near the route. Although the proposed route has changed several times since then, mineral deposits are abundant throughout Kyrgyzstan and the growing importance of critical minerals make developing these sites and having the means to ship minerals to markets more important than ever.
However, like transit fees, some of the revenue from mining operations will almost invariably be used to pay off the Chinese. Additionally, Chinese companies are among the most active foreign companies involved in mining operations in Kyrgyzstan.
It is not inconceivable that Kyrgyzstan might offer concessions in mining operations to China as part of repayment. Kyrgyz media outlets reported on this possibility back in January 2011, saying Kyrgyzstan was proposing granting Chinese companies concessions for aluminum, gold, and iron-ore mines.
The idea was unpopular in 2011 and no doubt would remain so with Kyrgyzstan’s people today, but it might be an unavoidable solution to repayment of the debt to China.
Electricity to Spare
Kyrgyz President Japarov announced on December 23 that construction of the Kambar-Ata-1 HPP would start, or better put, restart, in summer 2025. Work on the Kambar-Ata-1 HPP project began in 1986, but was halted when the Soviet Union collapsed in late 1991.
The HPP would generate some 1,860 megawatts (MW) of electricity, more than the Toktogul HPP that is undergoing repairs and upgrades after which its capacity should reach some 1440 MW. The Toktogul HPP currently generates about 40% of Kyrgyzstan’s electricity.
The cost of building Kambar-Ata-1 HPP is currently estimated to be some $3.6 billion.
Like the CKU railway, the Kambar-Ata-1 HPP is a project each of Kyrgyzstan’s five elected presidents has attempted to push forward.
In the first decade of the 21st Century, it looked like the Russian company Inter RAO UES would manage construction of Kambar-Ata-1, but after years of negotiations with little actual work being done, Kyrgyzstan’s parliament voted on January 20, 2016, to denounce agreements with Russia to build Kambar-Ata-1 (and the Naryn Cascade hydropower project).
Additionally, Uzbekistan’s then-President Islam Karimov was strongly opposed to construction of the massive Kyrgyz HPP and the even larger Rogun HPP in Tajikistan. The sites of both are located upstream on rivers that bring water to Uzbekistan, and Karimov said that water flows would be greatly reduced as the reservoirs for the two HPPs were filling.
Karimov died in late August 2016, and his successor, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, looked more favorably upon the massive hydropower plants in neighboring Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.
The Kyrgyz government had offered Uzbekistan an opportunity to take part in the Kambar-Ata-1 project several times when Karimov was in power. All those offers were rejected.
Mirziyoyev agreed, and so did Kazakhstan, another downstream country dependent on water from Kyrgyzstan. Both Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan signaled they would participate in the project with Kyrgyzstan, and in January 2023, representatives of the three countries signed a roadmap on construction of Kambar-Ata-1.
As is true of the CKU railway, Kyrgyzstan does not have enough money to pay for construction of the HPP, though the government did announce in February 2024 that it was allocating $500 million for the project.
Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are funding their own domestic energy projects, so Kyrgyzstan will need other foreign investors to build Kambar-Ata-1. Fortunately, international financial organizations seem to have renewed interest in Central Asian hydropower projects.
The estimated cost of completing Tajikistan’s Rogun HPP is some $6.29 billion. Under agreements signed in the last two years, the Islamic Development Bank is providing $250 million for the Rogun project, the Saudi Development Fund $100 million, the World Bank $350 million, and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank $270 million. Other international financial organizations have expressed their interest in the Rogun HPP, so more funding might be coming.
Kyrgyzstan has reason to believe it could be a beneficiary of such financing also, especially since, like Rogun, Kambar-Ata-1 is meant to supply not only Kyrgyzstan’s electricity needs, but also allow for exporting extra electricity to meet the growing regional need for additional energy.
Part of a Bigger Picture
Kyrgyzstan has never lost hope that the CKU railway and Kambar-Ata-1 would be realized. However, it is changing geopolitics and the interests of outside parties that are now suddenly propelling the projects forward.
Sanctions on Russia for the full-scale invasion of Ukraine have made it difficult to ship goods between Europe and China through Russian territory, and have sparked a search for alternative routes.
An article in China’s Global Times from June 2, 2022, cited Uzbek officials as saying “the railway will be the shortest route to transport goods from China to Europe and the Middle East, cutting the freight journey by 900 kilometers and saving seven to eight days in shipping time.”
The proposed route at that time was 523 kilometers.
Kambar-Ata-1 is a clean, renewable energy source that promises to deliver electricity to Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and, as part of the CASA 1000 project, to Afghanistan and Pakistan.
The railway and the HPP were always important for Kyrgyzstan, but they are now possible because they have become essential to the interests of other countries.
