Uzbekistan - The Times Of Central Asia

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Access to Clean Water

Water Stress: Will the Summer of 2026 Become a Turning Point for Central Asia?

The summer of 2026 is projected to be a critical and potentially decisive period for Central Asia in the context of water stress. The region is entering the growing season with significantly lower water reserves in its main river basins, the Amu Darya and Syr Darya, compared to previous years. The combined impact of climate change and rising consumption is expected to exacerbate irrigation shortages, threatening crop yields and food security. A Region Under Pressure: Water as a Strategic Factor For Kazakhstan, water is taking on an increasing strategic importance in 2026. The southern regions, Kyzylorda, Turkestan, and Zhambyl, have already entered a phase of persistent low water availability. Estimates suggest that the irrigation deficit could reach up to 1 billion cubic meters. The situation in the Syr Darya basin remains critical. Inflows are expected to fall 3.2 billion cubic meters below normal, and by the start of the growing season, total water volume may reach only 1-2 billion cubic meters, far below demand. The Shardara Reservoir, a key regional storage facility, is currently at roughly half of its design capacity. Uzbekistan faces an even more vulnerable position due to its high population density and large agricultural sector. The flow of the Amu Darya is projected to fall to 65% of its historical norm, putting food stability at risk. Tashkent is accelerating investments in canal reconstruction, as water losses during transport reach up to 40%. Against this backdrop, tensions between upstream and downstream countries could become more pronounced. Kyrgyzstan, acting as the region’s “water tower,” faces a difficult trade-off between energy security and its obligations to downstream neighbors. Low accumulation levels in the Toktogul Reservoir have constrained hydropower generation, leading to winter energy shortages and reduced summer water releases, precisely when Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan require them for irrigation. This cyclical dependency turns each growing season into a complex round of “water-for-electricity” negotiations, with diminishing room for maneuver. Tajikistan faces a similar situation in the Amu Darya basin. The Nurek Hydropower Plant is operating under strict conservation principles as reservoir levels remain several meters below previous norms. For Dushanbe, the priority remains fulfilling the Rogun project, which, under low-water conditions, raises justified concerns among downstream states. These tensions are compounded by the accelerated melting of Pamir glaciers, which currently increases water flows but poses a long-term risk of severe depletion. Turkmenistan is also expected to experience acute water stress in 2026. In the Ahal and Mary regions, pasture degradation and limited irrigation are reducing livestock numbers and grain yields. The government is investing in dredging the Karakum Canal and constructing small desalination plants, but these measures only partially offset declining Amu Darya flows. An additional destabilizing factor is Afghanistan’s Qosh-Tepa Canal project. By summer 2026, its impact on the Amu Darya basin is expected to become physically noticeable. Estimates state that unregulated water withdrawals could reduce downstream flows by 15-25%. Afghanistan’s absence from regional water-sharing agreements creates a legal vacuum that existing mechanisms cannot address. As a result, Central Asia is...

Agriculture

Uzbekistan Leases 4,000 Hectares in Belarus, Signs 60,000-Ton Export Deal

Uzbekistan’s Kashkadarya region has agreed to lease 4,000 hectares of farmland in Belarus and signed a major export contract as part of efforts to expand agricultural cooperation between the two countries, according to Dunyo Information Agency. The agreements were reached during a working visit to Belarus by a delegation from Kashkadarya region. As part of the trip, Uzbek representatives visited livestock and retail facilities in the Vitebsk region, including the districts of Braslav, Shumilino, and Postavy, where they studied local production practices. Talks with the leadership of the Vitebsk Regional Executive Committee focused on strengthening economic ties and building joint production chains. One of the key outcomes was a deal between Uzbek companies “Asl Yuksalish Savdo” and “Muborak qorako‘lchilik” and the Belarusian “Sirotinsky” livestock farm. Under the agreement, the Uzbek side will lease farmland on a long-term basis to launch an agricultural project. The first stage involves breeding 1,000 head of cattle, marking the beginning of a broader investment in livestock production. At the same time, Uzbekistan is expanding its export presence in the Belarusian market. “Asl Yuksalish Savdo” signed a contract with the retail chain CJSC “Dobronom” to supply 60,000 tons of agricultural products annually. The shipments will include dried fruits, legumes, melons, and grapes. The visit also included discussions on tourism and cultural cooperation. The two sides agreed to organize study tours for tourism sector representatives to boost travel exchanges. Cultural ties are also expected to deepen, with plans for performances by the Kashkadarya Regional Theater in Minsk ahead of an upcoming high-level visit. The agreements build on broader economic cooperation between the two countries. Earlier this year, Belarus announced plans to increase bilateral trade with Uzbekistan to $2 billion by 2030. Speaking after talks with Uzbek Prime Minister Abdulla Aripov, Belarusian Prime Minister Aleksandr Turchin described the target as “ambitious but achievable,” noting that trade turnover is already approaching $1 billion.

TCA Interviews

How Young Professionals from Central Asia Are Building Global Careers

Beyond opportunity, a new generation of Central Asians is learning how to compete, adapt, and fit into global work environments. “I felt like I would understand what real work is much faster by living in the U.S.,” Ruzana Ileuova says. Many people view building a career abroad as an opportunity. However, for Central Asian professionals, it also entails constantly adapting to new identities and expectations. While logging in to work every day from a location that feels both familiar and unfamiliar, Ruzana learns to trust her abilities and adapt to unspoken expectations. She says that pressure increases when working remotely, as it requires a high level of self-discipline. “I always feel like I have to do more to prove myself,” she says. Despite strong language skills and academic preparation, she describes an ongoing sense of self-doubt, particularly in high-performance environments. “Even the language barrier still gives me imposter syndrome,” she adds. “And I’m the youngest on my team.” Her narrative highlights a crucial aspect of this generation: success overseas requires constant negotiation of confidence, identity, and location, in addition to opportunity. Reinventing the Path For others, the path to an international career begins not with a plan, but with chance. Originally from Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, Aman Arykbaev did not imagine a global career. His journey began when he was unexpectedly selected for the green card lottery. “I used to think the green card was not a real thing until I saw that I was selected,” he says. His early years were characterized by uncertainty, as he arrived in the United States with little money and no guidance. “I worked almost two years installing heating, ventilation, and air conditioning. At that time, my English was very weak,” Arykbaev recalls. After attending a six-month IT boot camp, he was able to enter a new field and land his first tech job in a matter of weeks. “I had several interview stages, and by the end of the week, I got an offer.” Arykbaev, who is currently a senior quality engineer, exemplifies a characteristic of this generation: the ability to change course. Careers are now rebuilt, sometimes from the ground up, rather than fixed. Breaking Into Global Systems The route was more regimented, but no less difficult, for Aldiyar Bekturganov, an Amazon software engineer. He followed a well-known path of internships, networking, and applications after relocating to the U.S. for college. However, the process was anything but easy. “I failed my first interview completely,” he says. That setback accelerated his learning curve. Even after landing a job, entering the workforce was not without its challenges. The shift from university to professional life, he explains, was immediate. “You suddenly realize the work actually matters,” he says. “If something is delayed, people are waiting on you.” Unlike academic settings, where mistakes are part of the process, professional environments demand results that affect teams and timelines. While Bekturganov represents a more traditional corporate trajectory, Dameli Bozzhanova offers a contrasting perspective shaped by entrepreneurship and flexibility. Working in...

Water Management

Uzbekistan Joins World Bank’s “Water Forward,” Aiming to Reach 1 Billion People by 2030

The World Bank Group has launched a new global platform aimed at improving water security, as Uzbekistan continues to expand cooperation with international financial institutions on infrastructure development. In a statement released on April 15, the World Bank announced the launch of “Water Forward,” an initiative developed in partnership with multilateral development banks and other institutions. The platform aims to improve access to reliable water services for 1 billion people by 2030 by aligning policy reforms, financing, and international partnerships. For Uzbekistan, where water management remains closely tied to agriculture and regional climate conditions, such initiatives come as the country continues to modernize its infrastructure and attract international financing. Earlier, on March 23, the World Bank’s Board of Executive Directors approved a $200 million project to upgrade transport infrastructure in Uzbekistan’s Surkhandarya region. According to the bank, the project is intended to improve connectivity, support economic activity, and enhance access to services in the southern part of the country. “Water is foundational to how economies function. When water systems work, farmers produce, businesses operate, and cities attract investment,” World Bank Group President Ajay Banga said. “Our task now is to align reform, financing, and partnerships to deliver reliable water services at scale.” According to the World Bank, around 4 billion people globally experience water scarcity, despite water supporting health systems, agriculture, energy production, and an estimated 1.7 billion jobs. Weak regulations, unclear policies, and underfunded utilities have slowed investment in many countries, particularly in developing economies. The new platform will focus on country-led “water compacts,” under which governments set priorities for reforms, strengthen institutions, and outline investment strategies for the sector. Fourteen countries have already announced such compacts, while additional agreements are expected. The initiative also brings together a wide range of financial institutions, including the Asian Development Bank, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, and the Islamic Development Bank, to coordinate funding and technical expertise. The World Bank said it aims to help deliver water security to 400 million people directly, with partner contributions expected to raise the total to over 1 billion.

Podcast

Pannier and Hillard’s Spotlight on Central Asia: New Episode Coming Sunday

As Managing Editor of The Times of Central Asia, I’m delighted that, in partnership with the Oxus Society for Central Asian Affairs, from October 19, we are the home of the Spotlight on Central Asia podcast. Chaired by seasoned broadcasters Bruce Pannier of RFE/RL’s long-running Majlis podcast and Michael Hillard of The Red Line, each fortnightly instalment will take you on a deep dive into the latest news, developments, security issues, and social trends across an increasingly pivotal region. This week, the team will be discussing the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway with special guest, Almaty-based journalist for Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL), Chris Rickleton.

Economy

Uzbekistan’s Economy to Remain Strong in 2026, IMF Forecasts 6.8% Growth

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has released its latest assessment of Uzbekistan’s economy, reporting strong growth in 2025 alongside recommendations for continued fiscal discipline and structural reforms. According to the IMF, Uzbekistan’s real GDP grew by 7.7% in 2025, driven by robust domestic consumption and investment. Growth was broad-based, with the services and construction sectors expanding the fastest. At the same time, the unemployment rate declined to 4.8%, down 0.7 percentage points from the previous year. Inflation showed a downward trend, with annual consumer price growth falling to 7.3% by the end of 2025, compared to 9.8% a year earlier. The IMF attributed this to the fading impact of energy price increases introduced in May 2024, a stronger national currency, and what it described as an “appropriately tight monetary policy stance.” Core inflation also declined over the same period. External balances improved. The current account deficit narrowed to 3.9% of GDP, supported by strong exports and remittance inflows. International reserves remained stable, covering around 13 months of imports, while the fiscal deficit fell to 2.1% of GDP, below the government’s 3% target. “The economic outlook remains favorable,” the IMF said, while pointing to increasing global uncertainties, particularly linked to geopolitical tensions and the conflict in the Middle East. Economic growth is projected at 6.8% in 2026, before moderating to around 6% in 2027. Inflation is expected to remain above the Central Bank’s 5% target in 2026, partly due to higher global oil prices, before easing toward the target level in 2027. The IMF stressed that monetary policy should remain focused on price stability, noting that the policy rate has been held at 14% since March 2025. The report also highlighted risks related to global economic conditions, including trade disruptions and commodity price volatility, as well as domestic challenges such as potential pressure for increased public spending and vulnerabilities linked to state-owned enterprises. The IMF recommended limiting additional government spending in 2026 to avoid fuelling inflation. It also called for targeted social support measures instead of broad subsidies, alongside continued reforms in tax policy, public financial management, and state-owned enterprises. Further recommendations included accelerating the privatisation of state-owned banks, strengthening financial sector oversight, and improving governance standards. The IMF also emphasised the importance of maintaining exchange rate flexibility to help the economy absorb external shocks. The findings build on last year’s IMF assessment, which reported 7.6% growth in the first nine months of 2025, also driven by strong consumption and investment, while inflation showed signs of easing.