For Kazakhstan, strengthening ties with neighboring Central Asian states – as well as with Russia, China, and the West – is a top foreign policy priority. That, however, does not mean that the energy-rich nation is not also seeking to build stronger relations with other actors on the international stage.

The largest regional country views itself as an aspiring middle power. As such, it intends to continue pursuing what Roman Vassilenko, Kazakhstan’s Deputy Foreign Ministry, describes as a “balanced, constructive and pragmatic foreign policy.” Yet, in an increasingly turbulent world, this approach comes with its own sets of challenges. One of them is undoubtedly the construction of the nation’s first nuclear power plant.

Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has repeatedly stated that an international consortium with participation by companies from China, France, Russia, and South Korea should be responsible for that. But how realistic is that under the current geopolitical circumstances?

“No decision of the composition of the consortium has been made yet, although we are actively negotiating with the companies interested in the construction,” Vassilenko told The Times of Central Asia, emphasizing that Tokayev has stressed that Kazakhstan will need more than one nuclear power plant.

That is why, in Vassilenko’s view, there will likely be different types of consortiums building different types of nuclear plants. Such an approach perfectly illustrates the Central Asian nation’s “multi-vector” foreign policy.

“As the ninth largest country in the world, with only 20 million people, and neighboring such superpowers as Russia and China, we can naturally depend only on the best diplomacy we can deploy,” Vassilenko stressed.

For that reason, Kazakhstan has initiated the Astana International Forum (AIF) – an event that reflects today’s interconnected global challenges, ranging from energy security and the climate crisis to technological innovation, sustainable development, and geopolitical cooperation. This year, the AIF – taking place in the Kazakh capital on May 29-30 – will host leaders from nations such as Rwanda, Qatar, Albania, Croatia, and North Macedonia, among others.

The fact that Astana will host leaders from several Balkan countries clearly suggests that Kazakhstan plans to strengthen ties with this part of Europe. According to Vassilenko, Kazakhstan’s policymakers view the Balkans as a “promising market” which is why the Central Asian nation plans to establish direct flights to Serbia later this year.

“We already have direct flights to Montenegro, and we aim to connect Kazakhstan with other European countries as well,” Vassilenko said, adding that his nation has recently opened embassies in Albania and North Macedonia.

This approach demonstrates that Astana sees not only the European Union but also the EU candidate countries as potential partners. Still, for Kazakhstan – a major oil and gas producer – energy plays an important role in its foreign policy strategy. Given that the Central Asian state supplies large quantities of crude oil and petroleum products to Europe via Croatia, it’s no surprise that the Prime Minister of the former Yugoslav Republic, Andrej Plenkovic, is among the major speakers at the Astana International Forum.

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s visit to Kazakhstan, which coincides with the Astana International Forum, also signals that Astana is eager to expand its business ties with the European Union. That, however, does not mean that it will neglect its relations with its giant neighbors – Russia and China.

According to Vassilenko, foreign direct investment in Kazakhstan also reflects the country’s foreign policy priorities. Last year, China replaced Russia as Kazakhstan’s biggest trade partner, although Russia became the top investor in the Kazakh economy. The Central Asian nation’s policymakers, therefore, cannot afford to ignore geography, as it plays a possibly crucial part in their foreign policy.

Roman Vassilenko; image: TCA, Nikola Mikovic

Having participated in multiple summits with major global players such as the European Union, the United States, China, the Gulf countries, India, and others, Kazakhstan is seeking to strengthen its role as a middle power in the international arena. In other words, by continuing to leverage its energy resources while embracing innovation and international cooperation, Kazakhstan is aiming to reinforce its position as a key player in Central Asia and beyond.

“If we use analogies from the realm of medicine and health, while great powers can be seen as bones holding the carcass of our world, the middle powers can be termed as cartilages without which bone rotations would be impossible,” Vassilenko concluded.

The problem, however, is that in the current tense geopolitical environment, both Kazakhstan and other middle powers are not immune to global economic shocks, including inflation and investor uncertainty. Overcoming these challenges will be critical for maintaining stability and fostering long-term growth.

Finally, by strengthening regional cooperation and exploring new markets, Kazakhstan will likely aim to ensure stability and continue its growth, solidifying its role as an important player on the world stage.

Follow our special coverage on the Astana International Forum here.