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Diplomacy USA negotiations Middle Powers Trump Geopolitics Foreign Affairs Foreign Policy Mediation

Kazakhstan’s Middle Power Strategy Captures U.S. Focus in Trump-Tokayev Talks

On December 5, a telephone conversation took place between Kazakhstan's President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and U.S. President-elect Donald Trump. According to Akorda, the official residence of the Kazakh president, Tokayev congratulated Trump on his election and both leaders expressed a commitment to strengthening their strategic partnership in trade, investment, and nuclear non-proliferation. They also agreed to maintain regular contact to sustain the momentum of bilateral cooperation. Kazakhstan as a Mediator This brief but significant interaction has fueled speculation that Trump may view Kazakhstan as a potential mediator in negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. International expert Arkady Dubnov has suggested that Astana could become a platform for dialogue involving Trump, Vladimir Putin, and Volodymyr Zelensky, or other high level representatives. This aligns with Kazakhstan’s diplomatic efforts to promote mediation and its firm belief that the ongoing conflict can only be resolved at the negotiating table. Tokayev and the Role of Middle Powers Under Tokayev’s leadership, Kazakhstan has consolidated its status as a “Middle Power.” The term gained prominence in May during Tokayev’s Singapore Lecture, part of a prestigious series organized by the Yusof Ishak Institute (ISEAS). In his speech, “Kazakhstan and the Role of Middle Powers: Promoting Security, Stability, and Sustainable Development,” Tokayev emphasized the risks of global polarization and the need for middle powers to act against a new Cold War. Tokayev revisited this concept in an article for the French newspaper Figaro, highlighting the growing influence of middle powers amidst the deadlock faced by global superpowers, such as the United States and China. Tokayev wrote, “The economic and political importance of these countries is growing, and their balanced and constructive position is becoming an advantage in the face of global uncertainty.” At the Astana Think Tank Forum in October, Tokayev reiterated this idea, calling for the reform of the UN Security Council to amplify the voices of regional and middle powers. “The Security Council is in a deadlock, and we need to find a way out,” Tokayev stated. Trump's Strategy Trump’s outreach to Tokayev appears to validate these concepts. Following his election, Trump has engaged with the leaders of regional and middle powers, including India, Israel, Canada, and South Korea, signaling a possible strategy to build a coalition of such nations for his proposed reforms to the global security architecture. Kazakhstan's balanced and constructive foreign policy, combined with its emphasis on multilateralism, positions it as an effective interlocutor in global conflicts. Tokayev’s vision of middle powers as mediators may prove instrumental in shaping a more inclusive and cooperative international order.

Diplomacy Russia Politics Ukraine Astana Ukraine War negotiations Trump Russia's War Foreign Affairs Foreign Policy International Diplomacy Mediation Astana Talks

Trump’s Bid for Ukraine-Russia Peace: Could Kazakhstan Be the Key Mediator?

One of the anticipated top priorities of Donald Trump’s presidency is ending Russia's war in Ukraine while normalizing relations with Moscow. Writing on his Truth Social channel, Trump stated that, “Together, we will secure PEACE THROUGH STRENGTH, and Make America, and the World, SAFE AGAIN!” Trump’s nominee to serve as Special Envoy for Ukraine and Russia, 80-year-old former national security advisor, General Keith Kellogg, laid out his plan in writing for the America First policy institute, whilst focusing on characterizing the war “an avoidable crisis that, due to the Biden Administration’s incompetent policies [which] has entangled America in an endless war.” There are fears, however, that Kellogg’s proposal to reach a ceasefire by freezing the frontlines and forcing both sides the negotiating table will lead to a tumultuously violent period as Moscow seeks to swallow up territory. Meanwhile, NATO’s new secretary-general, Mark Rutte, has warned that compelling Ukraine into a “bad peace” would pose a “dire threat” to the U.S. itself. Whilst the framework for bringing a pause to hostilities is becoming clearer, it appears that Trump (or his representative) will need to meet with Vladimir Putin, and Kazakhstan has emerged as a potential venue for this high-stakes meeting. Kazakhstan's Role as Mediator Russian political analyst, Arkady Dubnov, has argued that Putin’s recent state visit to Astana may be an indication that Kazakhstan could play a pivotal role, and that given Putin’s limited travel options due to the International Criminal Court’s arrest warrant against him, Kazakhstan, with its reputation for diplomacy, would be a logical choice. “Putin is essentially restricted from visiting most of the Western Hemisphere,” Dubnov explained. “This leaves the Eurasian East, and among its cities, Astana stands out. Kazakhstan has hosted OSCE and CICA summits, mediated in the Syrian conflict, and facilitated peace talks over the future of the South Caucasus.” Dubnov sees Putin’s visit to Astana as indirectly tied to a possible meeting with Trump. “The Kremlin trusts Kazakhstan as an ally while respecting its constructive relations with the U.S. and the broader West,” he stated. Kazakhstan has long been recognized as a neutral ground where East and West can find commonality. The Astana process on Syria, initiated in 2017, helped prevent the escalation of hostilities for years, whilst Kazakhstan has mediated in other long-standing disputes, such as the conflict between Armenian and Azerbaijan. Given this history, it is conceivable that a reconciliation process between Russia and Ukraine could start in Astana. Neither the Minsk agreements of 2014, nor discussions in Istanbul in 2022 achieved lasting peace, but Kazakhstan’s diplomatic efforts could provide fresh impetus. Early Peace Efforts In March 2022, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev spoke with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, emphasized the urgency of negotiations to bring a halt to hostilities, a stance that has since gained momentum as the war drags on. By 2024, the validity of Tokayev’s view — that negotiations are the only viable path to end the bloodshed — has become increasingly apparent. Kazakhstan’s diplomatic corps has actively pushed for peace....

European Union Transport Air Transport negotiations International Relations Civil Aviation economic

Kyrgyzstan’s Airlines Could Be Removed from EU Blacklist in 2025

Kyrgyzstan’s airlines may soon achieve a significant milestone by being removed from the European Union’s Air Safety List, which currently bans them from operating flights to Europe. Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov made this announcement on November 27 during a meeting in Berlin with Johan Pelissier, the head of Airbus Europe, where they discussed the future of Kyrgyzstan’s aviation sector. Japarov emphasized the government’s concerted efforts to enhance aviation safety, implement international standards, and modernize infrastructure. He expressed optimism that these measures have significantly improved the likelihood of lifting restrictions on Kyrgyz airlines. As part of these developments, Japarov highlighted the government’s support for the national carrier, Asman Airlines. Under an initial agreement with Airbus, the airline plans to lease two A320 or A321 aircraft to establish direct routes to Europe, including destinations such as Paris, Berlin, and London. This initiative marks a critical step toward integrating Kyrgyzstan into the global aviation network. Looking ahead, Kyrgyzstan aims to expand its fleet and deepen cooperation with Airbus, fostering stronger connections with the international aviation community. At the conclusion of the meeting, Japarov extended an invitation to Pelissier to visit Kyrgyzstan for further discussions with local aviation representatives. Background: A Longstanding Ban Kyrgyz airlines was added to the EU’s Air Safety List in 2006 after failing to meet international safety standards. This decision, based on assessments that the country’s legal framework did not adequately ensure flight safety, has prohibited Kyrgyz airlines from flying to EU destinations for over 18 years. The ban has had a profound impact on the aviation sector, limiting its operational scope and market reach. Efforts to address these shortcomings represent a turning point, with the potential removal from the blacklist signaling a new chapter for Kyrgyz aviation. If successful, this move could open up significant opportunities for growth and international collaboration.

China Belt and Road Initiative Bilateral Relations International Cooperation negotiations international cargo International trade International Diplomacy

Kazakhstan and China to Double Trade, Increase Cargo Transportation

On November 4, Kazakhstan’s Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov arrived in Shanghai and held talks with his Chinese counterpart China Li Qiang. They discussed strengthening trade, investment, transport and logistics cooperation, agriculture, energy, and tourism. Kazakhstan and China aim to double bilateral trade turnover from last year’s historic high of $41 billion. In January-September 2024, Kazakh-Chinese trade totaled $33 billion. Bektenov stressed that Kazakhstan is ready to increase exports to China of 180 high-value-added commodity items worth $1.6 billion. Bilateral agricultural trade increased by 5.8% from January to September 2024, reflecting China’s growing demand for Kazakhstani organic and environmentally-friendly agricultural products. The sides discussed expanding the export of Kazakh grain, crops, and livestock products. Regarding the transport and logistics sector, the Kazakh and Chinese prime ministers noted that over 80% of land cargo transportation from China to Europe today passes through Kazakhstan. Therefore, Kazakhstan is interested in deepening cooperation within China’s Belt and Road Initiative framework. Bektenov noted that this globally important project, together with the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (the Middle Corridor), running through the territory of Kazakhstan, can unlock the potential of the North-South and East-West corridors. In January-September 2024, the traffic volume along the Middle Corridor exceeded the previous year's figures by 23% and amounted to 3.4 million tons. This figure is expected to increase to 10 million tons annually by 2030. Bektenov also attended the Kazakh-Chinese investment roundtable in Shanghai, which resulted in the signing of commercial agreements with Chinese companies totaling $2.5 billion, including on energy projects and localized automotive production. Addressing the forum, Bektenov said: "Kazakhstan and China have huge potential for implementing joint investment projects. Together, we can open new horizons for interaction and increase the effectiveness of cooperation. To this end, we should actively work to expand transit opportunities, strengthen industrial cooperation, and build ties between our business communities."

Natural gas Gasprom Export of Natural Gas Oil & Gas Export/Import negotiations

Turkmengaz Ends Gas Supply Contract with Gazprom Over Pricing Dispute

Turkmenistan's national gas company, Turkmengaz, has not extended its gas supply contract with Gazprom because the parties could not agree on a new fuel price. Turkmengaz Chairman Maksat Babayev explained: "On June 30, as outlined in the contract, we were set to review prices. If both sides agreed on the price, we could extend the contract. However, after negotiations, we couldn’t agree on the commercial terms. So, as per the contract, without an agreement, the contract was to end on June 30, which is what we proceeded with.” He shared this at a press conference following the “Oil and Gas of Turkmenistan – 2024” (OGT 2024) event. Babayev added that for Turkmengaz, the critical factor in starting, resuming, or ending supplies is the commercial aspect. “Contracts for purchase and sale are considered based on mutual benefit,” he explained. “Currently, demand from the north, west, and east is growing, and we are constantly in talks with various buyers and countries, so resuming supplies to Russia is certainly possible.” In 2019, Gazprom signed a five-year contract with Turkmengaz to buy natural gas through June 30, 2024. The agreement covers an annual supply volume of 5.5 billion cubic meters. Previously, Gazprom's head, Alexey Miller, announced that the company doubled the volume of gas supplies to Central Asia from January to August 2024. According to Miller, the republics' rapid economic and social development has opened meaningful new opportunities for Gazprom, which is currently at the highest possible level of gas supply to Uzbekistan.

Government International Cooperation Border disputes negotiations Kyrgyz-Tajik Border

Tajikistan-Kyrgyzstan Border Demarcation Completed

Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan have completed negotiations to demarcate their common border, which had been disputed for many years. The final meeting of the two countries' topographic-legal working groups was completed in the town of Batken in Kyrgyzstan on August 11-17. This has been reported by the State Committee for National Security of Tajikistan. "During this meeting, the parties continued the discussion and exchanged proposals on the description of the passage of the Tajik-Kyrgyz state border line in the remaining sections," the Committee commented. At the end of June, The Times of Central Asia reported that 94% of the borderline between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan had been fully delineated. The conflict was caused by uncertainties regarding the exact demarcation of the border between the two republics, which spans some 980 kilometers. With its scant natural resources and dwindling water supplies, the border between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan has been the scene of numerous armed conflicts. This situation arose after the collapse of the USSR – the parties could not agree on the ownership of dozens of disputed territories. The borderless areas have become a zone of conflict between the local population and the border troops of the other country. The last major conflict took place on September 16, 2022, as a result of which hundreds of people were killed and injured on both sides. Huge material damage was caused to the infrastructure of the border areas of the regions of Sogd (Tajikistan) and Batken (Kyrgyzstan).