Uzbekistan has raised its 2026 economic growth forecast from 6.6% to 8.1%, after stronger-than-expected performance last year and in the first quarter of 2026.
The Ministry of Economy and Finance’s updated Fiscal Strategy for 2027-2029 projects nominal GDP of 2.183 quadrillion soums this year (about $180 billion). The revision follows growth of 7.7% in 2025, above the original 6.6% forecast, and an 8.7% expansion in the first quarter of 2026.
The ministry expects market services to grow by 16.6% in 2026, industrial production by 8%, construction by 12.4%, and agriculture by 5%. Inflation is forecast to slow to 6.5%, while unemployment falls from 4.8% in 2025 to 4.5%.
The stronger projection rests partly on domestic demand. The strategy expects non-gold exports to rise by 20%, capital investment by 12.9%, and remittance growth to remain around 10%. Separate Central Bank figures show that remittances rose 13% to $3.8 billion in the first quarter, helping to support household spending even as Russia’s share of transfers declined.
Growth is forecast to slow to 6.9% in 2027, before rising to 7.1% in 2028 and 7.4% in 2029. Inflation is projected at 5-6% in 2027 and 5% in 2028 and 2029. The government also intends to keep the fiscal deficit within its rules and public debt below 40% of GDP.
The Ministry of Economy and Finance says meeting these targets will require stronger tax administration, fewer ineffective exemptions, tighter oversight of public-private partnerships, and further action against the shadow economy. It also plans more transparent medium-term budgeting and closer scrutiny of fiscal risks. The success of those reforms will determine whether rapid growth can be sustained without weakening public finances.
The fiscal strategy uses the IMF’s April global outlook as part of its external assumptions. The government’s estimate is considerably more optimistic than the IMF’s 6.8% forecast. In its June assessment, the Fund said Uzbekistan’s outlook remained favorable but warned that the economy could be running above its potential. It identified weaker global conditions and domestic overheating as the principal risks.
The revised figures also strengthen the government’s claim that the Uzbekistan-2030 Strategy target of an economy worth more than $240 billion remains achievable. The plan relies on private investment, export growth, higher productivity, and continued macroeconomic reforms.
Economist Otabek Bakirov said the 8.1% projection would mark the strongest growth in Uzbekistan’s recent history. “According to the Fiscal Strategy forecasts, economic growth will accelerate to 8.1% in 2026. If this happens, it will become a new record for the country’s recent history,” he wrote in an analysis of the forecast.
In a separate calculation, Bakirov put nominal GDP above $205 billion in 2027, $228 billion in 2028, and $257 billion in 2029. On that path, the $240 billion target would be surpassed a year early.
However, he cautioned that the scenario depends on maintaining strong growth, low inflation, and exchange-rate stability, without a major domestic or external crisis. A weaker soum would reduce the dollar value of GDP even if output continued to rise quickly in local-currency terms.
Economist Mirkomil Kholboyev focused on living standards in his assessment of the strategy. GDP per capita is projected to rise from $3,881 in 2025 to $4,629 this year and $6,203 in 2029. He said reaching the final figure would require average annual per capita GDP growth of 12.4%.
“That requires not only maintaining high economic growth but also preserving exchange-rate stability,” Kholboyev wrote. He also warned that recent results had benefited from high gold prices and questioned whether the same pace could continue if the market stabilizes. Gold accounted for nearly 44% of exports during the first five months of 2025, illustrating how heavily external earnings can depend on one commodity.
Kholboyev’s exchange-rate calculations suggest the average rate could strengthen to 11,987 soums per dollar in 2026, before weakening gradually to about 12,554 in 2029. These are analytical estimates, rather than official exchange-rate targets, and the average rate can differ significantly from the year-end figure.
The first-quarter result gives the government grounds for optimism, but the 8.1% forecast is still an ambitious one. Commodity prices, remittances, investment, domestic demand, and the exchange-rate value of the soum will determine whether Uzbekistan reaches it while also reducing inflation and keeping debt within its stated limits.
