@iStock

IMF: Uzbekistan’s Foreign Debt to Decrease by 10% in 2029

 According to a new  report issued by the International Monetary Fund,  in recent years and against uncertainties from the pandemic and Russia’s war in Ukraine, Uzbekistan’s rapid growth in economy is set to continue in tandem with a significant decline in poverty.
Despite a slowdown in the development of trade partners and the removal of the fiscal stimulus in 2023, a strong economic growth is predicted for this year and supported in the medium term, by the completion of budgetary consolidation, ongoing structural reforms, and continuing capital inflows, demonstrates the government’s commitment to promoting market-oriented reforms to further Uzbekistan’s economic development.
Challenges still remain, however, in the large state footprint in the economy and last year’s expansionary fiscal policy, which the authorities determined to persevere in their reform efforts, must address to advance sustainable and inclusive growth.
The monetary policy which has reduced inflation must continue until it reaches the Central Bank of Uzbekistan’s target. Sustaining a high real policy rate, tight fiscal and macro-prudential policies, and supportive structural reforms would gradually reduce inflation to the target by the end of 2027 and the CBU should stand ready to increase its policy rate if the energy price reform leads to broader price pressures and raises inflation expectations.
The government should continue efforts to accelerate the restructuring and privatization of state enterprises, eliminate preferences for state-owned enterprises and unbundle large enterprises to increase competition and improve the business environment. The authorities are accelerating efforts for WTO accession and undertaking measures to bolster external competitiveness and export diversification; opening markets and reducing monopolies would boost growth and help reduce inflation.
According to the IMF’s analysis, it will reach 60.1% of GDP at the end of 2024, and the country’s total external debt is expected to decrease to 51% of GDP by 2029. Similarly, from 33% of GDP at the end of 2024, government-guaranteed external debt is likely to decline to 27% by 2029.
Several factors contribute to these positive statistics. The government of Uzbekistan aims to limit the budget deficit to 3% of GDP by introducing annual limits on the budget deficit and new debts. In addition, the 2023 public debt law limits state-guaranteed debt to 60% of GDP, with proposals for debt reduction if it reaches 50%.
As stated in the report, the authorities emphasized their commitment to maintaining a moderate level of debt and noted that the government’s goal of reducing and maintaining the medium-term fiscal deficit at 3% of GDP would send purchasing power parity and external borrowing as a share of GDP downwards
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Sadokat Jalolova

Sadokat Jalolova

Image: TCA, Aleksandr Pololitsyn

A Eurasian Perspective on the Historic Conviction of U.S. Senator Bob Menendez

On July 16, a federal court in New York found United States Senator Robert “Bob” Menendez (D) guilty on 16 counts in a corruption trial, including charges of accepting bribes to benefit the governments of Egypt and Qatar, obstruction of justice and extortion. He is the first U.S. senator to be convicted as a foreign agent and the charges collectively carry a potential sentence of 222 years in prison.

Bribery charges involved receiving gold bars worth over $100,000 and more than $480,000 in cash as well as a Mercedes-Benz for his wife. “This wasn’t politics as usual. This was politics for profit,” summarized Damian Williams, an attorney for the Southern District of New York. According to federal prosecutors, among other things, Menendez helped secure millions of dollars of U.S. aid for Egypt and used his office to assist a multi-million-dollar deal with a Qatari fund. Egypt’s intelligence and military officials are said to have bribed him and his wife at a time when U.S. military aid to the country would have paused due to human rights concerns. Menendez also used his official position “to protect and enrich” individuals in exchange for payments, including helping a New Jersey businessman secure a halal certification monopoly with regards to U.S. meat exports to Egypt.

Striking similarities to another recent “influence-for-sale” scandal

For many Europeans, this U.S. case resembles the European Union’s own Qatargate scandal, which broke out in 2022 and unveiled how foreign governments (Qatar, Morocco and Mauritania) have been channeling hundreds of thousands of euros to a ring of elected European Parliament officials who, in turn, were leveraging their authority to benefit these clients. The services included “attempts to manipulate the Parliament” and “scheming to kill off six parliamentary resolutions condemning Qatar’s human rights record” as Politico reports.

In his plea deal, Antonio Panzeri, the chief of the European Parliament’s Subcommittee on Human Rights (DROI), admitted to receiving bribes as well as to leading and participating in a criminal organization. This criminal organization reportedly doled out bribes to EU officials through two NGOs named Fight Impunity and No Peace Without Justice, which were allegedly set up to launder money and help fund the scheme. In Menendez’s case, the money ran through his wife’s consultancy.

Qatargate allegations extended beyond the Middle East and North Africa. For instance, Atlantico.fr reported that Panzeri and his associates may have been corrupted by at least two Kazakh criminal figures.

Europeans appeared lenient on corruption as Panzeri only received a five-year prison sentence, of which four would be suspended and the one year he’d serve would be under house arrest with an electronic bracelet. Momentum behind investigations of key suspects has since waned, leading the EU Observer to call Qatargate “a missed opportunity to bring Europe to justice”.

Foreign policy priorities pushed by Senator Menendez need to be re-examined

When public officials are found to have used their office to promote external interests, their past policy activities should be closely examined.

Bob Menendez has been a member of U.S. Congress since 1993 and chaired the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations from 2013 to 2015, and again from 2021 to 2023. As the chairman, he held significant influence over shaping U.S. foreign policy by overseeing legislation, treaties, and diplomatic issues. The position allowed him to set the agenda for policy discussions, influence strategies, and advocate for specific approaches to international affairs, all of which had an impact on global alliances and challenges.

In Menendez’s defense, most of his calls for support and condemnation with regards to foreign governments appear to be evidence based and endorsed by other U.S. law makers. However, given recent revelations in his court case, it is fair for the public to question whether his actions were scoped, scripted, sourced, timed, or targeted in a fashion to serve a particular paying client. 

Sarah Leah Whitson, Executive Director of the American non-profit organization Democracy for the Arab World Now, believes that Senator Menendez’s conviction is an “important step in accountability” but adds that the U.S. government “must do much more to investigate, root out and punish these naked acts of corruption and undue influence by Middle East dictatorships that are rotting our democratic institutions”.

Menendez was indeed consistently critical of Middle Eastern regimes associated with authoritarian rule such as Iran and Saudi Arabia. On the other hand, he remained favorable towards Qatar, which is not surprising given that the federal charges against him included receiving bribes from Qatar and activating the office of the U.S. President to arrange a meeting with a member of Qatar’s royal family. Judicial Watch has reported that Qatargate’s “metastasizing corruption scandal” reached the U.S., involving politicians and political operatives, mentioning Menendez as being caught in the “Qatargate crosshairs”.

Menendez was also an outspoken champion of Armenia and sided against its adversaries, namely Azerbaijan and Turkey. On September 21, 2023, he led bipartisan legislation banning most assistance to the government of Azerbaijan while authorizing foreign military financing for Armenia. He also led campaigns for the U.S. to recognize the WWI-era massacre of Armenians in present day Turkey as “genocide”. Addressing the Senate floor on November 13, 2023 about the humanitarian crisis in Armenia, he warned against the influence of “malign actors” of Turkey, China, Russia, and Iran. Following news of his conviction, on 18 July, Turkey’s Hurriyet news outlet trumpeted the headline “Anti-Türkiye Senator may receive life sentence: Menendez burned.” His wife since 2020, Nadine Menendez, was born in Lebanon to Armenian parents and has been an advocate for Armenia.

Why the Menendez case is relevant for Central Asia

Central Asian news outlets have shown limited interest in the U.S. Senator’s conviction and his activities in the region. Many of his criticisms of, and condemnations for, Central Asian states were consistent with those raised by other U.S. government offices. On the other hand, as it has become evident that Menendez commercialized his office, the details behind his political activities including his meetings and correspondence with those representing foreign interests as well as any funds received (campaign finance or other) should be under further scrutiny.

We have compiled the below brief chronology of some of his key political actions impacting Central Asian states:

  • On July 29, 2019, Menendez co-led a letter to the President of Kazakhstan asking for the release of a prisoner accused of being involved in a multi-billion-dollar bank fraud, which was orchestrated by a notorious fraudster and opposition figure named Mukhtar Ablyazov. Ablyazov faces three concurrent 22-month sentences in the U.K. (2018) and has other judgements against him in the U.K. and U.S. exceeding $5 billion overall (2015, 2022, 2023 and 2024). The senators’ letter also gave credence to claims put forth by a murky Europe-based NGO that has lobbied for at least one other money launderer in addition to Ablyazov, and has links to Russia’s defense industry through the family of its founder and president.
  • On May 7, 2020 and June 29, 2020, the presidents of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan each received a letter from Menendez and other U.S. senators asking for the “release” of “detainees imprisoned for peaceful activism who are also at high risk of contracting COVID-19”. Each letter named one to three detainees and expressed reasons why they should be released.
  • On December 6, 2021, Menendez and five other senators urged the U.S. Secretary of State to “ensure human rights are at the center of the United States’ developing partnership with Uzbekistan during the upcoming Strategic Partnership Dialogue”. The senators wrote that despite much-lauded reforms, Uzbekistan remained among the world’s most repressive countries and was at risk of reversing recent gains.
  • On October 7, 2022, Menendez and three other senators pressed U.S. Secretary of State to establish an international investigation mechanism, under the auspices of the United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC) or the OSCE, to probe Kazakhstani security forces’ actions during the January 2022 violent protests which left over 200 people dead. Two weeks later, on October 25, 2022, UNHRC issued an opinion based on a single source, focusing on the detention of Karim Massimov, the former head of Kazakhstani intelligence, who was arrested for his alleged role in plotting the violent unrest that transformed into a coup attempt. UNHRC asked to “take urgent action to ensure the immediate unconditional release of Mr. Massimov”. In 2023, Massimov was sentenced to 18 years in Kazakhstan for high treason, attempting a coup and misuse of power. There are reports on his alleged links to grand scale bribery and embezzlement. In the letter, Menendez and other senators also asked for a review of U.S. security assistance to Kazakhstan.
  • On November 22, 2022, Menendez and another senator sent a letter to the President of Tajikistan, Emomali Rahmon, expressing “concerns over an escalation of violent harassment of journalists and the government’s failure to protect freedoms of speech and press” and mentioning appreciation for the accreditation for Radio Ozodi journalists, an affiliate of Radio Liberty.
  • On August 8, 2023, Menendez sent a letter to Kyrgyzstan’s President Sadyr Japarov asking him to investigate allegations of assisting Russia or its proxies in evading international sanctions imposed in response to Russia’s unlawful invasion of Ukraine. He criticized the country for “democratic backsliding and widespread human rights violations” and urged the president to “lift all restrictions on independent media and journalists, release imprisoned human rights defenders, and repeal measures restricting fundamental freedoms such as the freedom of association.” Japarov denied the accusations.

Public opinion should remain vigilant against corrupt influence

While it is legal for U.S. senators to meet with registered lobbyists working on behalf of foreign governments and to receive campaign contributions from non-foreign donors, it is not legal for them to use their official position to bestow favors in exchange for bribes.

As a senior lawmaker in a powerful position, Menendez not only engaged in corruption but also thwarted important legislation intended to strengthen the ability of U.S. federal officials to combat foreign influence. His conviction could be the tip of the iceberg if more cases are revealed of him acting at the behest of foreign interests, whether these are governments or individuals. The Department of Justice appears determined to stop covert foreign influence in the U.S. regardless of the countries or individuals involved. Given that America’s international policies have wide-reaching consequences for the world, repercussions of this case and others like it should be followed closely by global audiences.

@gov.kz

Kazakhstan, Iran, Turkmenistan and Russia to Develop North-South Transport Corridor

On July 19 – 20, the Ministry of Transport of Kazakhstan organized its first meeting on the North-South transit and trade corridor in Aktau attended by delegations from Azerbaijan, Armenia, Afghanistan, Kazakhstan, Russia, Belarus, Turkmenistan, UAE, Iran, Iraq, Oman, and Uzbekistan.

By connecting Russia and Belarus to ports in the Persian Gulf, with further access to India, the North-South transport corridor will broaden prospects for trade and become a key engine for Kazakhstan’s economic development.

During the meeting,  Kazakhstan, Iran, Turkmenistan, and Russia signed a roadmap for the development of the eastern route of the North-South transport corridor from 2024 to 2025, aimed to increase the corridor’s throughput to 15 million tons of cargo annually by 2027 and 20 million tons by 2030.

Kazakh Minister of Transport Marat Karabaev commented: “Kazakhstan intends to continue its active participation in the development of the Eastern branch of the North-South corridor, which has the highest potential for growth in cargo flows until 2030 and appears to be the safest and shortest transit route to the Indian Ocean. Therefore, it is necessary to begin the practical implementation of the Roadmap signed today for the synchronous development of the eastern route of the North-South corridor passing through the territories of Kazakhstan, Russia, Turkmenistan, and Iran.”

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Sergey Kwan

Sergey Kwan

Gabriel Stati @businessfm.kz

Kazakhstan Ends Litigation With Moldovan Businessmen

After 15 years of litigation worldwide, a long-standing dispute between Kazakhstan and Anatol and Gabriel Stati, businessmen from Moldova, has ended. The Ministry of Justice of Kazakhstan has reported that the government, the National Bank of Kazakhstan, and representatives of Stati have signed a framework agreement. The parties, with the support and consent of leading creditors of Tristan Oil, have concluded a legally binding framework agreement on a peaceful and mutually acceptable resolution of the long dispute over oil and gas assets in Kazakhstan.

As reported by the Ministry of Justice, the signatories have reached an agreement on mutually favorable terms that will lead to the termination of all legal proceedings and stop ongoing lawsuits in all jurisdictions. The specific terms of the agreement remain confidential.
Daniel Chapman, CEO of Argentem Creek Partners, said, “We support the framework agreement and applaud President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s decision to build a ‘Just Kazakhstan’ as part of his admirable reforms. The settlement of this dispute demonstrates Kazakhstan’s compliance with international treaty obligations, which opens the door to increased investment and enhances its economic growth potential. We welcome a new era for Kazakhstan.”

Argentem Creek Partners is the investment manager of specific funds that became lenders to Tristan Oil Limited, the investment vehicle of the Stati parties.

According to Justice Minister Azamat Yeskarayev, “This agreement is made with the public interest in mind and does not involve the expenditure of public funds. We believe that this step will positively impact the attraction of new investments to our country and the economy’s growth.”

The legal battle between Stati and entities in Kazakhstan started in 2010. Lawsuits have been considered in the Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg, Sweden, the UK, and the United States. At one point, the assets of the National Fund of Kazakhstan were even frozen.

The episode began in October 2008, when then President of Moldova,Vladimir Voronin, complained to Nursultan Nazarbayev that businessman Anatol Stati was using money received in Kazakhstan to sponsor the opposition in Moldova. Shortly thereafter, Stati’s relationship with the authorities in Kazakhstan sharply deteriorated. A series of inspections initiated by state began, during which the unlicensed use of trunk pipelines, tax arrears, violations of license and contractual conditions under subsoil use contracts and other issues were discovered.

According to experts familiar with the case against Stati, by that time the Moldovan businessmen had already decided to leave Kazakhstan and were preparing for these inspections, which would result in the termination of contracts. Therefore, by November 2009, they had amassed a lot of materials, which, in the hands of their lawyers could be used to argue that Kazakhstan was in violation of the regime of fair and equal treatment of investors under the Energy Charter Treaty.

On July 21, 2010, the Ministry of Oil and Gas of Kazakhstan terminated the subsoil use contracts of the Stati companies Tolkynneftegaz LLP and Kazpolmunai LLP due to non-fulfillment of license and contractual terms. Five days after receiving the termination notice, on July 26, 2010, Stati filed an investment arbitration claim accusing Kazakhstan of expropriating their investments and violating investors’ rights to fair and equitable treatment. This arbitration dragged on until December 2013, when a Swedish court of arbitration awarded the Stati family $500 million, of which $199 million were funds allegedly related to the costs involving the construction of the Borankol gas processing plant. It should be noted that the Stati’s had demanded $4 billion from Kazakhstan.

Later, thanks to documents obtained in the U.S. through a separate judicial procedure, Kazakhstan obtained evidence that Stati’s claims were based on a major fraud.

In August 2021, Anatol and Gabriel Stati and their companies announced their intention to file a new lawsuit against the republic “in connection with Kazakhstan’s ongoing gross violations of its international legal obligations to pay the final and binding arbitral award rendered in December 2013.” Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Justice stated that Stati’s intention to initiate new arbitration proceedings would provide Kazakhstan and the tribunal with an opportunity for a fair hearing in the case.

On June 14, 2022, the Court of Appeal of The Hague ruled that the Kazakhstan Sovereign Wealth Fund, Samruk-Kazyna’s shares in KMG Kashagan B.V. enjoyed sovereign immunity from enforcement, confirming that the seizure of Samruk-Kazyna’s property was unlawful and invalid. The fund’s rights to independent ownership were restored without any restrictions.

On January 9, 2023, the District Court of Amsterdam denied the Stati’s request for recognition and enforcement of the arbitral award, stating that the businessmen had committed procedural fraud in the arbitration, violating Dutch public policy. On February 8, 2023, the District Court of Amsterdam ruled that the claims of the Stati businessmen and their campaigns against the Samruk-Kazyna Fund were inadmissible. The fund’s press service reported that the court ordered Stati to pay the legal costs incurred by Samruk-Kazyna and Kazakhstan. The Stati’s had argued that Samruk-Kazyna is part of the Republic of Kazakhstan and is, therefore, responsible for the alleged claims under the arbitration award against Kazakhstan.

It is now being reported that the Stati’s have reached an agreement with the government and the National Bank of Kazakhstan. Since its terms are classified, it is unclear which side yielded. However, many experts assume that the Moldovan businessmen ultimately bent to Kazakhstan’s political will.

Kazakhstani political analyst Gaziz Abishev wrote on his Telegram channel that “In the struggle for real improvement of the international investment climate, Kazakhstan has shown political will and ended the long-term confrontation with Moldovan businessmen Stati. The Stati’s filed suits in international courts [which] one after another made decisions unfavorable to Kazakhstan… At the same time, the ‘Stati case’ had a toxic effect on Kazakhstan’s investment image.”

Abishev summarized the unexpected end of the high-profile court saga as such: “One way or another, someone in this story has made some tough financial decisions. Investment attractiveness is a cornerstone of Kazakhstan’s macroeconomic plans. The Stati precedent will change the color of the certificates prepared by consultants for potential investors – from black – ‘They took away assets and continued to sue’ to ‘they constructively resolved the issue.’”

Yevgeny Rakhimzhanov

Yevgeny Rakhimzhanov

Yevgeny Rakhimzhanov is a journalist from Kazakhstan who lives in Almaty. He has worked in leading national media and headed several national media projects. His articles have appeared in a plethora of publications both at home and abroad.

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@invest.gov.kz

Chinese Company Opens Genetic Laboratory in Astana

Kazakh Invest has reported that the opening ceremony of the Astana Genetic Center laboratory of the Chinese company BGI Group took place in Kazakhstan’s capital, Astana, on July 19. BGI Group, a world leader in genome research of living organisms, has over a hundred joint laboratories, medical centers, and production facilities in more than 30 countries.

The opening ceremony was attended by Yin Ye, CEO of BGI Group; Kunsulu Zakariya, Advisor to the President of Kazakhstan on Science and Innovation; Akmaral Alnazarova, Kazakhstan’s Minister of Health; and Saule Sabyr, First Secretary of the Investment Committee of the Kazakh Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

BGI Group opened the laboratory jointly with a local partner, scientific and production company BIOGEN Technopark LLP. The laboratory will conduct various molecular genetic tests related to reproductive health and diagnosis of hereditary and oncological diseases. The Astana Genetic Center is the only full-cycle laboratory in Kazakhstan capable of conducting all stages of genetic research without taking biomaterial abroad.

Sergey Kwan

Sergey Kwan

Sergey Kwan has worked for The Times of Central Asia as a journalist, translator and editor since its foundation in March 1999. Prior to this, from 1996-1997, he worked as a translator at The Kyrgyzstan Chronicle, and from 1997-1999, as a translator at The Central Asian Post.
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Kwan studied at the Bishkek Polytechnic Institute from 1990-1994, before completing his training in print journalism in Denmark.

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@tajinfo

Russia Ups Ban on Migrant Employment

Heads of  Russia’s Chelyabinsk and Krasnodar regions have announced that this year, migrants are to be  banned from working in over a dozen sectors.

In the Chelyabinsk region migrant workers have already been banned from driving cabs and buses. Restrictions will now extend to an additional 19 sectors, including the sale and repair of cars and motorcycles, providing financial services and in particular insurance and pensions, engaging in recruitment, organizing gambling and lotteries, and repairing computers and household appliances. Migrants will also be  prohibited from working in trade, hospitality, catering, and agriculture. They will be unable to work as lawyers, translators, accountants, veterinarians, and fitness trainers, nor conduct creative activities or organize entertainment events.

From September 22, citizens of other countries will be prohibited from working as household assistants and employment in agriculture, manufacturing, culture, and the hospitality sector in the Krasnodar region.  Earlier bans in the region applied to trade, catering, education, health care, sports, medical services, courier services, and passenger transportation, including cabs.

Employers violating the rules will either be fined up to 1 million roubles for each illegally employed migrant or have their business suspended for up to 90 days.

In the Tomsk region, immigrants were previously banned from working in six areas: cabs, hotels, catering, security, education, and sports.

In July, it was proposed at the federal level to introduce a ban on migrants working in cab and delivery services across Russia.

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Vagit Ismailov

Vagit Ismailov