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Bilateral Trade

Ukrainian Deputy Foreign Minister: Astana and Kyiv Seeking to Restore Trade

Ukrainian Deputy Foreign Minister, Olexandr Mishchenko, discussed prospects for trade and economic cooperation, including the possible resumption of the Intergovernmental Commission on Trade and Economic Cooperation, during a meeting on April 2 with Serik Zhumangarin, Kazakhstan’s Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of the National Economy. In comments to The Times of Central Asia, the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry representative said Astana and Kyiv are aiming to restore bilateral trade. Trade between Kazakhstan and Ukraine reached approximately $5.5 billion annually before the war but has since declined sharply. However, according to Kazakh data, the situation has begun to improve. The Ministry of National Economy reported that trade turnover between the two countries totaled $415.8 million in 2025, up 5.4% from $394.3 million in 2024. Kazakhstan’s main exports to Ukraine include ferroalloys, fertilizers, and rice, while imports from Ukraine consist of chocolate and other cocoa products, flour and confectionery, medicines, cheese, and cottage cheese. [caption id="attachment_46523" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Image: Ukrainian Embassy in Kazakhstan[/caption] Astana and Kyiv also intend to expand the range of goods traded. During interdepartmental consultations held in Astana, the sides discussed trade, investment, agriculture, logistics, and humanitarian cooperation, with a focus on export diversification. They agreed to intensify business contacts, consider resuming the Intergovernmental Commission, and expand cooperation in priority sectors, particularly the agro-industrial complex. Mishchenko said the countries also plan to strengthen cooperation in the energy sector and restore logistics chains. Until 2022, Ukraine provided key transit routes for Kazakh exports to Europe. Before 2022, a significant share of Kazakhstan’s westbound trade relied on routes passing through or near Ukrainian infrastructure. The war disrupted those pathways and forced a broader regional shift toward alternative corridors, including routes across the Caspian and South Caucasus, which remain longer, more complex, and often more expensive. “Territorial integrity remains the cornerstone of our cooperation. We are deeply grateful to Kazakhstan for its humanitarian aid: more than 600 tons were collected, particularly during the winter. This support was critical to Ukraine’s resilience,” Mishchenko said. The visit marked the first trip by a senior Ukrainian government representative to Kazakhstan in recent years. A large delegation of Ukrainian entrepreneurs accompanied Mishchenko, seeking to re-establish business ties with Kazakh partners. “Despite the ongoing conflict, Ukraine is already looking toward the post-war future, and concrete proposals for cooperation, including in energy, are being developed through bilateral engagement with Kazakhstan,” Mishchenko told The Times of Central Asia. “Kazakhstan’s energy resources create opportunities for mutually beneficial cooperation, including potential integration into Ukrainian markets.” Mishchenko noted that a Ukrainian business mission, the first in many years, visited Kazakhstan, including the Pavlodar Region, a major industrial hub with significant heavy industry and energy capacity. “This creates real demand for modernization, engineering solutions, and equipment supplies,” he said. The delegation held meetings with government officials, financial institutions, and business representatives, alongside regional visits aimed at launching joint projects. In Astana, talks were held with the leadership of Baiterek National Management Holding. Ukrainian entrepreneurs also visited the Astana International Financial Centre and the city administration,...

Oil and Gas

Major Hydrocarbon Field Discovered in Kazakhstan

A major hydrocarbon field has been discovered in Kazakhstan’s Atyrau Region, with reserves potentially comparable to those of the Kashagan oil field, the country’s largest oil source, according to Kurmangazy Iskaziyev, First Deputy Chairman of the Management Board of KazMunayGas. The site is located on the Zhylyoi Platform near the Caspian Sea coast. Its onshore location could significantly reduce development costs, although the deposits are believed to lie at considerable depths. Kashagan has long stood as the symbol of both Kazakhstan’s oil wealth and the technical difficulty of extracting it. The offshore field cemented the country’s position as a major crude producer, but also became known for cost overruns, delays, and the engineering challenges of operating in the northern Caspian. Any onshore discovery mentioned in the same breath immediately raises expectations that it could avoid some of those constraints while delivering comparable scale. Kashagan, discovered in the northern Caspian Sea, remains one of the largest oil fields found globally in recent decades. Its recoverable reserves are estimated at 9–13 billion barrels of oil, with gas reserves exceeding 1 trillion cubic meters. Development is carried out by the North Caspian Operating Company consortium, which includes Shell, TotalEnergies, ExxonMobil, Eni, China National Petroleum Corporation, Inpex, and KazMunayGas. Speaking at the Geoscience & Exploration Central Asia forum, Iskaziyev said the resource potential of the Zhylyoi Block, including Karaton, Kazhygali, and Zhylyoi, is estimated at 4.7 billion tons, with total geological potential reaching up to 20 billion tons of oil equivalent. At this stage, such figures reflect geological potential rather than proven, recoverable reserves. In Kazakhstan, as elsewhere, moving from estimate to production depends on depth, pressure, sulfur content, and the cost of drilling and processing. Large discoveries can take years to confirm commercially, particularly in high-pressure or technically complex formations. KazMunayGas has already begun exploration work. A well 5,750 meters deep has been drilled at the Karaton site, and five promising targets have been identified as part of a joint project with Tatneft. During testing at one of these sites, a gas flow containing hydrogen sulfide was recorded. The main challenge remains the depth of the deposits, which may reach up to 9 km. According to Iskaziyev, these conditions are comparable to projects undertaken by KazMunayGas’s Chinese partners, including Sinopec and China National Petroleum Corporation, where drilling depths can reach up to 11 km. The company plans to expand geological exploration into neighboring areas, including Kazhygali, and is negotiating subsoil use contracts. The timing is significant. Kazakhstan is under growing pressure to demonstrate that its oil sector can still deliver major new projects as existing fields mature. A large onshore discovery in Atyrau would reinforce the region’s role as the core of the country’s energy system and support efforts to sustain export volumes and investor interest. At the forum, a memorandum of understanding was also signed between KazMunayGas and BP on cooperation in geological exploration and the development of the Ustyurt Block in the Mangistau Region. The Times of Central Asia previously reported...

Freedom in the World

Central Asia Pushes Back on “Not Free” Label as Debate Over Rankings Grows

According to Freedom House’s Freedom in the World 2026 report, all five countries in Central Asia are classified as “Not Free.” Nevertheless, governments in the region are increasingly questioning the impartiality of such assessments. At the same time, some regional experts point to ongoing political and economic reforms as signs that the region is making progress. A “Not Free” Region In its report released on March 19, 2026, Freedom House classifies all five Central Asian states as "Not Free." The designation is based on Freedom House’s assessment of political rights and civil liberties. According to the report’s authors, the ranking reflects pressure on independent media, tightening control over civil society, and the absence of genuine political competition. Kazakhstan received 23 points out of 100. The report highlights restrictions on opposition groups and civil society activists, pressure on independent journalism, and tightly managed elections that do not ensure genuine political competition. Kyrgyzstan, long considered the most politically open country in the region, scored 25 out of 100 and was also classified as “Not Free.” The organization says the score fell by one point from the previous year, reflecting continued pressure on independent media, the designation of several outlets as ‘extremist,’ and criminal cases against journalists, alongside concerns about election integrity. Uzbekistan scored 12 out of 100. Freedom House points to the concentration of power in the executive branch, the absence of a genuine parliamentary opposition, and severe restrictions on independent human rights defenders and journalists. Since President Shavkat Mirziyoyev took office in 2016, Uzbekistan has pursued a series of controlled political and economic reforms aimed at opening the country after decades of isolation. These have included currency liberalization, efforts to end the use of forced labor in the cotton sector, and steps to ease restrictions on business and foreign investment. While critics say political liberalization remains limited, supporters argue the reforms mark a significant shift from the policies of the previous era. Tajikistan received just 5 points. The report highlights the long rule of President Emomali Rahmon, the elimination of legal opposition, systematic persecution of its members and their families, and a de facto lack of electoral competition. Turkmenistan recorded one of the lowest scores globally, with just 1 point. The report describes the country as one of the most repressive in the world, citing total state control over political life and the media, the absence of opposition participation in elections, and harsh punishment for dissent. Turkmenistan remains one of the most closed countries in the world, with extremely limited access for foreign media and independent observers. Political life is tightly controlled, and reliable information about internal developments is scarce. While the authorities have signaled gradual generational change following the 2022 transfer of power to President Serdar Berdimuhamedov, there has been little visible shift in the country’s political system. Impartiality in Doubt? Trust in international assessments has also been affected by developments in U.S. foreign aid policy and a wider shift in global perceptions about the appropriateness of Western-linked organizations categorising...

Food Security

Iran Conflict Drives Food Price Pressures Across Central Asia

The war around Iran is beginning to push up food price risks in Central Asia as disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz raise fertilizer and fuel costs, while Tehran’s halt to some food exports adds pressure in regional markets. The impact is not manifesting as shortages, but as rising costs across the systems that produce, move, and sell food. The United Nations has warned that the crisis is disrupting one of the world’s most important trade corridors for energy and agricultural supplies. A large share of global fertilizer trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz, and reduced shipping traffic is tightening supply and pushing up prices. Higher fuel costs are adding a second layer of pressure on farmers and transport networks. Fertilizer and fuel are among agriculture’s highest costs. Even modest increases can compress margins quickly, forcing farmers to cut usage or pass costs on, with pressure moving through to retail prices. Central Asia is particularly exposed to this shift in costs. The region relies on imported fuel and fertilizers, and depends on long, multi-stage transport routes. When costs increase at any point in that chain, they accumulate before goods reach markets. The second layer of pressure comes from Iran itself. On March 3, Tehran imposed a ban on exports of food products as part of wartime economic measures. Reporting in Tajikistan indicates that the move could affect the availability and pricing of goods such as dairy, sugar, fruit, and spices, particularly in wholesale and lower-cost retail markets. Iran is not a dominant supplier, but plays a role in specific markets. Tajikistan is the clearest example. Tajikistan has also expanded its economic relationship with Iran in recent years, supported by cooperation in industry and transport. Iranian goods are widely present in retail supply chains, and trade between the two countries has grown steadily in recent years. That growth is part of a broader trend. Iran’s economic ties with Central Asia have expanded under new trade arrangements and bilateral initiatives. Kazakhstan and Iran have discussed increasing trade turnover to $3 billion, reflecting the rising use of Caspian routes and port infrastructure, which are now under threat. [caption id="attachment_46480" align="aligncenter" width="1600"] Aralsk Bazaar. Rising transport and fertilizer costs are beginning to push up food prices across the region. Image: Michael J. Bland[/caption] Transport adds a third layer of pressure. As risks rise across the Middle East, airlines and freight operators are avoiding large swathes of Iranian airspace and surrounding routes, forcing rerouting and raising costs across supply chains. European aviation safety authorities have issued conflict-zone bulletins warning of heightened risks in the region, and carriers have adjusted accordingly. Rerouting increases fuel use, extends journey times, and raises insurance costs. Those increases affect cargo as well as passengers, and over time, higher logistics costs feed into the price of imported goods, including food. On land, the same pattern is visible. As southern routes become less predictable, more freight is shifting toward the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route - the Middle Corridor -...

Aviation Industry

Iran War Redraws Air Routes, Boosting Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan

Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan are emerging as potential beneficiaries of disruptions in the global aviation fuel market as tensions around Iran force airlines to reroute flights and rethink transit hubs. The escalation of tensions in the Middle East, including heightened risks to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, has led to sharp increases in energy prices and supply disruptions. Gas prices in the EU have risen by 70%, and oil by 60%, with additional costs reaching €14 billion. Roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz, making any disruption critically significant for global markets. The aviation industry has been among the hardest hit sectors. According to industry sources cited by Bloomberg, Europe is expected to have sufficient jet fuel supplies in the short term, but stocks are under pressure, and supply risks could emerge if the conflict continues. The cost of jet fuel has risen from about $742 to more than $1,700 per ton in recent weeks in some markets. This increase is outpacing the rise in oil prices, intensifying pressure on airlines. As reported by The Telegraph, citing data from Cirium, around 7% of scheduled flights were canceled at the peak of recent disruptions, equivalent to more than 7,000 departures, compared with about 4.7% a year earlier. Airlines are responding by cutting flight schedules and revising their business models. Lufthansa, for example, is considering temporarily grounding part of its fleet. According to CEO Carsten Spohr, fuel shortages are likely to be felt first outside Europe, where supply chains are more vulnerable. At the same time, airfares have already risen by 15-20%, beginning to dampen demand. As passenger demand softens and costs rise, carriers are balancing route cuts with the need to maintain key markets. Fuel Costs Drive Route Shifts According to Sergey Agibalov, consulting director at Argus in the CIS, significant changes are also occurring in the geography of international air travel. Major Middle Eastern hubs, such as Dubai, Doha, and Abu Dhabi, have seen a decline in transit traffic amid safety concerns and are operating below normal capacity on key routes. Agibalov argues that this creates a window of opportunity for alternative routes between Europe and Asia, including Istanbul, Addis Ababa, and hubs in Central Asia and the South Caucasus. “Airports in Central Asia and the South Caucasus are now attractive not only to passengers, but also to airlines. Disruptions to Middle Eastern jet fuel exports linked to instability around the Strait of Hormuz have led to a sharp rise in fuel prices globally. This increase is outpacing the rise in oil prices, intensifying pressure on airlines. Recent industry data shows prices reaching as high as $1,600–1,800 per ton in some markets. Under these conditions, many airlines have begun optimizing their flight schedules; even if fuel is available, flying has become very expensive,” he noted. Against this backdrop, airports in Almaty, Astana, and Baku are seeing increased traffic and stronger airline interest. Argus estimates suggest volumes are already rising in Baku, as routes across Central...

Kazakh Diaspora

Poems by the Kazakh Poet Abay Recited in Paris in Nine Languages

The legacy of the Kazakh poet Abay Kunanbayev recently brought together representatives of different nations in Paris. His works were recited in Kazakh, French, Russian, Chechen, Buryat, Kalmyk, Ingush, Tuvan, and Yakut. The Association of Kazakh Women in France, “QazElles,” thus supported the recently announced proposal to include Abay’s work Words of Admonition on the UNESCO World Heritage List. “As you know, UNESCO’s headquarters are in Paris, so the news that one of Kazakhstan’s most significant literary monuments could officially become part of UNESCO’s World Heritage List is very personal to us. How can we support this? By bringing together those who are not yet familiar with Abay’s work and introducing them to his major poetic masterpieces. This year, Abay’s works will be presented in the languages of various diasporas living in France with whom we are friends,” said Madina Kulmanova, president of the “QazElles” association, in an interview with The Times of Central Asia. [caption id="attachment_46355" align="aligncenter" width="225"] QazElles photos archive[/caption] The monument to Abay, located in the Poets’ Square of the French capital, has become a regular meeting place for admirers of his work since its unveiling in 2021. For Kazakhs living in France, it has become a tradition to hold the “Abay Readings” annually at the poet’s bust to promote the legacy of the founder of Kazakh written literature. This time, Abay in Paris brought together not only Kazakh and French people, but also representatives of the peoples of the Caucasus, as well as Buryat and Kalmyk associations in France. Said Musa Batyrgereev, a representative of the Chechen diaspora: “I am here representing the Association ‘Guardians of Mountain Cultures in France’ and as a representative of the Chechen people. Today we have gathered at the monument to Abay Kunanbayev to honor his memory. Abay was a great poet and a wise man who taught kindness, respect, and humanity. And today I would like to thank the Kazakh people from the bottom of my heart for the help and support they provided to the Chechen people in 1944. We will never forget this.” Representatives of the “Peuple du Baïkal” association, which unites representatives of the peoples of Russia’s Baikal region, thanked the “QazElles” association for the invitation to the annual readings of Abay Kunanbayev’s poems. In the poem they chose to read, “Quiet Night Under the Moon” (“Jelsiz tünde jaryq ai”), the poet lovingly describes the beauty of nature and the tenderness of relationships. [caption id="attachment_46356" align="aligncenter" width="225"] QazElles photos archive[/caption] Radmila Boyer, a representative of the association, noted that listening to Abay’s poem immerses one in a world of beauty and love. “This poetic morning brought us, different peoples, closer together, gave us a wonderful mood, the joy of communication, and inspiration for future joint cultural projects,” she said. Tulips were laid at the Abay monument in honor of the readings. This served as a reference to another project by the “QazElles” association, which, with the support of the Shymkent city authorities, the Embassy of Kazakhstan in...