The escalating conflict between Iran and Israel is threatening to disrupt Central Asia’s southern trade and transport corridors, prompting governments in the region to reassess their export strategies. According to the Russian outlet Nezavisimaya Gazeta, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are exploring alternative routes to mitigate risks associated with instability in the Persian Gulf.

A major concern is the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global trade. This poses a significant challenge for Kazakhstan, which relies on Iran as its sole southern railway outlet.

Kazakhstan Seeks Alternative

Kazakhstan’s Minister of National Economy, Serik Zhumangarin, emphasized the importance of maintaining uninterrupted cargo movement. “If rail service through Iran is disrupted, and this is our only southern route, the state is prepared to redirect cargo through alternative paths,” he said.

Though exports via Iran remain relatively limited, about $350 million in 2024 and $120 million from January to May 2025, Kazakhstan had planned to expand its use of the Iranian corridor. In early June, Astana and Tehran agreed to boost wheat and barley shipments to three million tons annually.

Alternatives under consideration include multimodal routes incorporating rail and ferry links across the Caspian Sea via Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan, as well as the Trans-Caspian or “Middle Corridor” connecting China to Georgia via the Caspian. Air freight is also being considered for select goods. While these alternatives involve added logistical challenges, the government has pledged support to businesses should the conflict persist.

Zhumangarin reassured that rerouting exports is unlikely to significantly affect prices, noting that most of Kazakhstan’s exports are globally traded commodities whose prices are shaped by international markets. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, Kazakh officials had already warned of risks to southern routes. Nonetheless, Zhumangarin emphasized that contingency plans are in place and that “it’s too early to say how the situation will evolve.”

Uzbekistan Focuses on Diversification

Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev has likewise responded swiftly, ordering an immediate assessment of the crisis’s impact on trade and transportation, and calling for urgent diversification of export routes. According to the presidential press service, transport costs could rise by as much as 30%.

“The need to redirect cargo flows to safer ports and negotiate alternative trade corridors with partner countries was emphasized,” the statement said. Authorities have been instructed to support export-oriented businesses and identify new markets to help stabilize domestic prices.

Until recently, Uzbekistan had been expanding trade ties with Iran, aiming to increase bilateral trade to $2 billion annually. However, these plans are now under review due to the regional instability.

Experts: Southern Routes Not Yet Critical

Despite the growing concerns, experts say Uzbekistan is not heavily dependent on southern corridors. Grigory Mikhailov, editor-in-chief of the logistics portal LogiStan.info, noted that most of Uzbekistan’s trade continues through Russian ports (St. Petersburg, Vladivostok, Novorossiysk) and China.

“These routes are well-established, reliable, and offer predictable delivery times. Sanctions have had little to no impact on cargo passing through Russia,” Mikhailov said. He added that the Iranian route via Bandar Abbas remains underdeveloped, citing incomplete infrastructure, problematic payment systems, and limited capacity. “For now, shipments along this route are mostly experimental,” he said.

Mikhailov concluded that Uzbekistan has not suffered significant losses from the Iranian situation, calling it “more of a political issue.” He noted that the country is now prioritizing the development of its northern and eastern trade corridors, particularly the North-South route through Russia.