Page 41 – The Times Of Central Asia

02 Mar 2026

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Escalation in the Middle East Threatens Kyrgyzstan’s Agricultural Export Potential

March 2, 2026
By Vagit Ismailov

Escalating tensions in the Middle East are putting pressure on Kyrgyzstan’s export routes, a significant portion of which previously transited through Iranian territory. Iranian ports in the Persian Gulf and on the Caspian Sea have provided Kyrgyz producers with access to markets in the Middle East and Europe.

According to the National Statistical Committee of Kyrgyzstan, cattle exports from Kyrgyzstan declined fivefold in 2024.

In 2025, domestic meat prices rose sharply amid what authorities described as uncontrolled exports of cattle carcasses, primarily to Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. In response, the State Antimonopoly Service introduced maximum retail prices for lamb and beef in the domestic market and imposed a temporary ban on livestock exports to neighboring countries.

To stabilize supply, the government approved meat imports from India for processing plants, while domestic production was intended to meet internal demand.

Against this backdrop, many farmers shifted their focus to exporting chilled meat to Iran. In 2024, shipments resumed, beginning with an initial 10-ton consignment, after which volumes gradually increased. The Ministry of Agriculture announced plans to raise lamb exports to Iran to 1,000 tons.

In addition to meat, Kyrgyz companies exported legumes, grains, and dried vegetables to Middle Eastern markets via Iranian ports. Honey, beans, and nuts were also shipped to Europe using Iranian transit routes.

However, in the context of renewed military tensions, Kyrgyz exporters may now need to seek alternative logistics corridors or new destination markets. Any rerouting is likely to increase transportation costs and reduce the price competitiveness of Kyrgyz agricultural products.

In 2023, the Eurasian Economic Commission signed a free trade agreement with Iran, which entered into force on May 15, 2024. The agreement provides for the creation of “green customs corridors,” the digitalization of trade procedures, and the introduction of electronic transit mechanisms. According to EEC Minister for Trade Andrey Slepnev, the deal was intended to facilitate accelerated access to the Iranian market for companies from the Eurasian Economic Union.

Under the agreement, goods from EAEU member states benefit from tariff preferences, including zero or reduced import duties in Iran. Iranian products receive comparable preferences within the EAEU market.

Last year, Tehran also proposed that Bishkek consider establishing its own merchant fleet, using Iranian ports in the Persian Gulf and the Caspian Sea to export Kyrgyz agricultural products and expand transit opportunities.

02 Mar 2026

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S&P Global Ratings Expects Kazakhstan’s GDP Growth to Slow in 2026

March 2, 2026
By Dmitry Pokidaev

The international rating agency S&P Global Ratings has affirmed Kazakhstan’s long-term sovereign credit rating at BBB- and its short-term rating at A-3, while maintaining a positive outlook on the long-term rating. At the same time, S&P analysts expect economic growth to decelerate in 2026 and warn of persistently high inflation.

According to commentary on S&P’s projections by analysts at the Halyk Finance research center, Kazakhstan’s GDP growth is forecast to slow to 4.1% in 2026. The projected slowdown is attributed to a 4% decline in oil production, weaker fiscal stimulus, and reduced consumer activity amid higher taxes and tighter credit conditions.

In the medium term, for 2028-2029, S&P expects GDP growth to remain at around 4% or slightly higher. However, risks persist, particularly those related to geopolitical tensions and the continued sensitivity of Kazakhstan’s budget revenues and exports to fluctuations in global oil prices.

For comparison, Kazakhstan’s GDP grew by 6.5% in 2025. In 2026, the government expects growth of 6.2%, a notably more optimistic projection than S&P’s estimate.

Other international institutions have offered varying forecasts. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) recently upgraded its 2026 GDP growth forecast for Kazakhstan to 4.7%, up from 4.5%. In contrast, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in January lowered its 2026 growth forecast by 0.4 percentage points to 4.4%.

Returning to S&P’s projections, the agency expects inflation to reach 11% by the end of 2026 and forecasts an exchange rate of 540 tenge per $1.

Halyk Finance analysts stated that they broadly agree with S&P’s GDP and inflation forecasts. However, they consider the risks of further weakening of the national currency to be greater than the agency anticipates. According to their estimates, the exchange rate in 2026 could depreciate to 580-590 tenge per $1.

S&P also expects the Kazakh government to continue fiscal consolidation in the medium term by expanding the tax base and tightening control over public spending, while preserving substantial liquid reserves.

Over the next three years, the government does not plan to withdraw additional funds from the National Fund through targeted transfers or bond placements. The guaranteed annual transfer from the National Fund is set at $5.5 billion, half the $11.1 billion withdrawn in 2025.

“We share S&P Global Ratings’ positive assessment, provided that the government strictly adheres to its fiscal consolidation commitments and reduces transfers from the National Fund,” Halyk Finance concluded.

The Times of Central Asia previously reported that the IMF believes Kazakhstan’s current GDP growth rate exceeds the country’s long-term economic potential, thereby increasing inflationary pressures and signaling potential overheating of the economy.

02 Mar 2026

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Escalation with Iran at the Epicenter: How Central Asian Countries Are Reacting

March 3, 2026
By Andrei Matveev

Over the past weekend, the Middle East has once again become a focal point of global tensions. At the center of the escalation is Iran, a country with which Central Asian states intensified engagement last year following the visit of President Masoud Pezeshkian to the region. As events unfold, the potential regional and economic consequences have become a key concern for Central Asian leaders.

Kazakhstan

President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev responded swiftly on February 28, as Iran was reportedly preparing a retaliatory strike targeting not only Israel, which, together with the U.S., had assumed responsibility for the latest escalation, but also several Arab states in the Persian Gulf.

On February 27, Tokayev received U.S. Ambassador to Kazakhstan Julie Stufft. According to the official readout, the sides exchanged views “on further cooperation within the framework of the Board of Peace.” While it remains unclear whether the meeting was directly linked to impending military developments, Kazakhstan’s leadership moved quickly the following day.

On February 28, the president instructed Security Council Secretary Gizat Nurdauletov, together with the heads of law enforcement agencies and relevant ministries, to prepare an emergency action plan in light of the escalating situation around Iran and potential risks to domestic stability.

All law enforcement agencies were placed on heightened alert, and a special monitoring group was established within the government under the supervision of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Regional governors were instructed to assess potential risks stemming from developments in the Middle East.

Late on March 1, presidential press secretary Aibek Smadiyarov announced that Tokayev had sent personal messages to the leaders of the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait, expressing solidarity and support during what he described as a difficult period.

Tokayev strongly condemned military actions that undermine the sovereignty and security of states friendly to Kazakhstan.

“Our country consistently advocates resolving complex international problems and armed conflicts exclusively through diplomatic means,” Tokayev stated.

He also expressed Kazakhstan’s readiness to provide assistance if necessary and reaffirmed the importance of maintaining working contacts with regional leaders.

Subsequently, Tokayev held telephone conversations with Emir of Qatar Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani and President of the United Arab Emirates Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan.

In both calls, Tokayev expressed serious concern over the escalation and reiterated Kazakhstan’s support and solidarity. During the conversation with the UAE president, Tokayev also noted reports that civilian infrastructure had been damaged and stated that attacks on civilian targets deserve strong condemnation.

Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan thanked Kazakhstan for its support and expressed appreciation for its readiness to assist in overcoming the crisis.

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan, alongside Kazakhstan, suspended flights to several Middle Eastern destinations, with some aircraft reportedly turning back after departure.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued emergency contact information for Uzbek diplomatic missions and urged citizens abroad or planning to travel, to closely monitor official updates from host countries and Uzbek embassies.

The ministry advised citizens to maintain communication with diplomatic missions, register with consular services when necessary, and exercise heightened caution, particularly in areas with large public gatherings. The statement also emphasized compliance with local laws and customs.

Officials in Tashkent view instability in the Middle East as a potential risk to trade routes, labor migration channels, and broader regional security.

Azerbaijan

On March 1, Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov held a telephone conversation with Uzbekistan’s Foreign Minister Bakhtiyor Saidov. According to the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry, the ministers discussed the deteriorating security environment and expressed deep concern about the expanding military confrontation.

Both sides stressed the importance of restraint and underscored the need to resolve disputes through political dialogue and diplomatic means in accordance with international law.

On the same day, Bayramov also spoke with Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Arakchi. During the call, Bayramov expressed condolences over reported casualties, including the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and civilian victims following U.S. and Israeli strikes.

Bayramov further stated that Azerbaijani territory would not be used for military operations against Iran.

Meanwhile, at the Astara border crossing in southeastern Azerbaijan, located along the Astara River, which forms the state border with Iran, authorities reported an influx of individuals leaving Iranian territory. Most arrivals were Azerbaijani citizens returning home, though approximately 50 foreign nationals were also reported at the checkpoint, including citizens of Poland, India, Pakistan, Nepal, Brazil, Tunisia, and France.

Azerbaijani officials stated that third-country nationals must obtain an “evacuation code” to exit Iran, though some individuals reportedly arrived at the crossing unaware of this requirement.

Baku has indicated that it remains prepared to assist in the evacuation of foreign nationals from Iran if necessary.

01 Mar 2026

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Central Asian Countries Scramble to Help Nationals in Mideast Conflict Zone

March 6, 2026
By Times of Central Asia

With the Mideast conflict entering a second day, Central Asian governments have urged their citizens in the region to take precautions, including following the instructions of local authorities and staying away from mass gatherings.

Five civilians from Tajikistan are among foreigners from a range of countries who have crossed from Iran into Azerbaijan since the United States and Israel launched air strikes at Iranian targets on Saturday, the Azerbaijani Press Agency reported. Others who have crossed include 18 Saudi diplomats, four diplomats from Jordan and hundreds of Russian civilians. Canada and Spain have communicated with Azerbaijan about the possible evacuation of their citizens as well.

One citizen of Azerbaijan in the region has been injured, but is in good condition and receiving support from diplomatic staff, said Aykhan Hajizade, spokesman for Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs. He was quoted by state news agency Azertac.

Uzbekistan said there are no casualties among its 81 citizens in Iran. The nationals from Uzbekistan include eight employees of diplomatic missions, nine students in the city of Qom, nine who are in Iran on private visits and 55 permanent residents.

“The Embassy maintains constant contact with compatriots,” the Uzbek government said.

Iran responded to the air strikes with retaliatory waves of missiles and drones aimed at Israel as well as U.S. military facilities and civilian areas across the region.

“Air traffic has been suspended due to temporary restrictions on the use of airspace,” Uzbekistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a message on Telegram to its nationals in Dubai, United Arab Emirates. The ministry urged them to fully comply with local laws, avoid going out unnecessarily and stay away from crowded places, and rely only on official sources of information.

Kazakhstan said it was working on “round-the-clock interaction” with authorities in countries affected by the conflict, and that its diplomatic missions are providing consular and legal assistance to compatriots. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs has opened hotlines.

“Lists of citizens in the region, including transit zones, are being updated,” the ministry said. “Operational chats have been created in messengers where compatriots can get answers to their questions and information about the situation in the country, including recommendations.”

The ministry said it was collecting information about the number of Kazakhstani citizens in the “escalation zone,” and that it was difficult to specify the exact number. There have been no reports so far of casualties among people from Kazakhstan, it said.

Last year, Mashhad, a northeastern Iranian city near the border with Turkmenistan and a significant hub for trade with Central Asia, was among the targets hit by the Israeli military. At the time, Turkmenistan facilitated the cross-border transfer from Iran of some people from Central Asia and other regions.

So far, there are no reports of U.S. or Israeli strikes on Mashhad since the latest conflict began. The city is an Islamic pilgrimage site and is the birth place of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader. He was killed in air strikes on Saturday.

01 Mar 2026

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President Tokayev Reaffirms Support for Gulf States During Regional Crisis

March 2, 2026
By Times of Central Asia

Updated March 1 – President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev sent messages of support to the leaders of the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan reaffirming Kazakhstan’s solidarity with their peoples during what he described as a “difficult period of profound challenges.”

Messages were conveyed on Saturday to the leaders of the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain and Kuwait, underscoring Kazakhstan’s commitment to the sovereignty and security of its partners in the Arab world. The information was confirmed by presidential adviser and press secretary Aibek Smadyarov, according to Qazinform.

On Sunday, Tokayev sent a similar message to Jordan’s leadership, extending the same assurances of solidarity and support.

In addition, Tokayev held a phone call with the Amir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, during which the sides discussed the evolving situation in the Middle East and emphasized the importance of diplomatic efforts to prevent further escalation.

In the messages, Tokayev condemned any military action aimed at undermining the sovereignty and security of states that Kazakhstan regards as friendly partners.

“Our country consistently advocates the resolution of all complex international issues and armed conflicts exclusively through diplomatic means,” Tokayev said.

He added that Kazakhstan stands ready to provide any assistance it can and expressed hope for continued regular contact with the senior leadership of those countries, signaling Astana’s intention to maintain close political dialogue amid regional tensions.

The messages are consistent with Kazakhstan’s long-standing foreign policy emphasis on multilateralism, non-interference, and the peaceful settlement of disputes. As Central Asia’s largest economy, Kazakhstan has sought to position itself as a constructive diplomatic actor while maintaining balanced relations across the Middle East and beyond.

27 Feb 2026

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Pakistan Declares “Open War” with Afghanistan’s Taliban as Cross-Border Attacks Escalate

February 27, 2026
By Times of Central Asia

Pakistan launched airstrikes inside Afghanistan on Friday following a Taliban-announced offensive against Pakistani military posts along the shared border, marking a sharp escalation in tensions between the two long-hostile neighbors. The Taliban has said it is open to talks.

Pakistan’s Defense Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif said on social media that “our patience has now run out. Now it is open war between us,” framing Islamabad’s actions as a response to cross-border attacks.

According to Reuters, the Afghan authorities said operations began across several eastern provinces bordering Pakistan, while Islamabad confirmed retaliatory strikes targeting what it described as militant positions.

Both sides have released sharply conflicting casualty figures, none independently verified. Pakistani officials said more than 200 Taliban fighters were wounded and over 130 killed in retaliatory operations, while reporting Pakistani military casualties. The Taliban authorities rejected those figures and claimed dozens of Pakistani troops were killed.

The clashes threaten a fragile ceasefire reached in October 2025 after earlier border fighting. Pakistan has repeatedly accused the Taliban of allowing Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militants to operate from Afghan territory, an allegation Kabul denies. The Durand Line border has long been a flashpoint, but analysts say the scale of recent airstrikes — including reported strikes near Kabul — marks a significant escalation beyond previous localized clashes.

For Central Asian states, renewed instability between Pakistan and Afghanistan carries direct strategic and economic implications. Uzbekistan has invested heavily in the proposed Termez–Mazar-i-Sharif–Kabul–Peshawar railway, a flagship trans-Afghan corridor intended to link Central Asia to Pakistani ports and expand southbound trade. The CASA-1000 electricity transmission project, designed to export surplus hydropower from Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan to Afghanistan and Pakistan, also depends on security conditions in Afghan territory.

Turkmenistan’s TAPI gas pipeline project faces similar vulnerabilities. Escalating violence risks delaying these connectivity initiatives and raising concerns about militant spillover into northern Afghanistan, an area closely watched by Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Central Asian governments have pursued pragmatic engagement with the Taliban authorities to stabilize their southern frontier; sustained confrontation between Kabul and Islamabad could complicate that strategy and undermine regional integration plans.

The United Nations and regional actors have called for restraint. While both governments describe their actions as defensive, the rhetoric surrounding the latest exchange suggests a dangerous deterioration in bilateral relations. Independent verification of battlefield claims remains limited as diplomatic efforts to contain the escalation continue.