Since the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the five Central Asian republics have been performing a very complex balancing act. In some cases, this dynamic has forced them to make difficult decisions from a geopolitical point of view. This is the case with what has happened in recent weeks regarding diplomatic recognition of the Republic of Cyprus, a member of the European Union since 2004.

Between December 2024 and the end of March 2025, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan have each appointed diplomatic representatives in the Republic of Cyprus. Kazakhstan has decided to open its own embassy in Cyprus directly, while Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan have accredited their respective ambassadors in Italy as diplomatic representatives for the Eastern Mediterranean Island also.

Looking at the calendar, it doesn’t seem to be a coincidence that these decisions were taken in the weeks leading up to the first historic summit between the European Union and Central Asia at the level of heads of state and government. The fourth point of the official joint declaration issued at the end of the meeting clarifies the matter: the text clearly states the support of the parties involved – the European Union and Central Asia – for United Nations Security Council Resolutions 541 (1983) and 550 (1984). These two resolutions make it clear that the only recognized authority on the island is that of the Republic of Cyprus.

In recent years, there has been no shortage of explicit references to the Cyprus issue in relations between the European Union and Central Asia. This was the case, for example, in September 2023: during a conference in Brussels, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan were warned against officially accepting the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TNRT) as an observer member of the Ankara-led Organization of Turkic States (OTS). Dietmar Krissler, head of the European External Action Service’s Central Asia desk, spoke of the possible “negative effects” for the Central Asian members if they were to ratify TRNT’s access to the Organization as an observer.

Returning to the summit held in Samarkand at the beginning of April, the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, announced during the discussions that €12 billion would be invested in Central Asia in various sectors. By also using the prospect of these investments, the European Union’s diplomatic pressure on the Central Asian republics over Cyprus has been successful. As BBC Türkçe reports, this is not just a formal declaration of intent: in the official joint statement, future cooperation is in fact closely linked to compliance with the principles contained in the two UN resolutions, a very clear position.

From Turkey’s point of view, however, the picture is quite different. Turkey is the only country in the world to officially recognize the TRNC, which became a self-proclaimed independent entity in 1984 after Turkey invaded part of the island in 1974. Over the years, Ankara’s pressure has succeeded in preventing relations between the Central Asian republics and the Republic of Cyprus from going as far as the appointment of official diplomatic representatives. But now the situation has changed.

The move by Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan is particularly significant from another point of view: The three countries, with Turkmenistan only as an observer, are part of the abovementioned Organization of Turkic States, of which the TRNC has also been an observer since 2022. From the Turkish perspective, therefore, the position adopted by Astana, Tashkent, and Ashgabat can be interpreted as a betrayal of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s efforts on the pan-Turkic front, one of his key foreign policy doctrines.

At the latest meeting in November last year, the Turkish President called on the Organization’s member states to give more support to the TRNC. The occasion was the summit in Kyrgyzstan, which was also attended by the president of the self-proclaimed entity, Ersin Tatar. This year, the summit of the OTS will be held in Azerbaijan, and it will be interesting to see how the issue of the appointment of Ambassadors from Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan to the Republic of Cyprus will be handled.

So far, the Turkish authorities have made no official statement on the move by the three Central Asian republics. Although the OTS has made progress in terms of economic integration among its members through initiatives such as the launch of the Turkic Investment Fund, repercussions cannot be ruled out. During an interview on Turkish television, the TRNC Minister of Transport, Erhan Arıklı, clearly stated that he expects Turkey to take effective countermeasures. The Turkish press has highlighted the nature of the decision as a real diplomatic slap in the face for President Erdoğan and also emphasized the concurrence with the announcement of European investment in Central Asia. The message to the country’s public is that countries formally allied to Turkey have sold the unity of the Turkish world to Brussels.

The Cyprus issue shows how difficult it can be for Central Asian republics to maneuver in the current international context. The pressure exerted by the European Union and Turkey also highlights the diplomatic importance of the region. This is true not only for Russia, which is facing international isolation following its invasion of Ukraine. It is a situation that offers opportunities but also contains risks. The main opportunity is the possibility of using this increased diplomatic relevance on various fronts to obtain concessions, as in the case of European investments related to critical sectors such as minerals and regional logistics. On the other hand, the main risk is the inability to maintain a balance between the different demands of the various partners of the Central Asian republics. This is a key match for the geopolitical and diplomatic relevance of Central Asia, a match for which cooperation between the regional republics, to be perceived as a united bloc, becomes even more fundamental