Kazakhstan’s Strong Bond Sale Anchors Regional Capital Markets
The Republic of Kazakhstan once again captured global investor attention with its highly successful sovereign bond issuance in October 2025, underscoring its status as Central Asia’s benchmark borrower. The Ministry of Finance sold a $1.5 billion five-year Eurobond at a record-low 4.412% yield, about 85 basis points above U.S. Treasuries, after attracting nearly $4.4 billion in orders from a geographically diverse investor base spanning Europe, the U.S., and Asia – almost three times oversubscribed.
Strong Market Reception and Competitive Pricing
This five-year issue achieved the lowest yield in Kazakhstan’s independent history and was one of the tightest-priced five-year sovereign bonds among investment-grade peers, pricing inside higher-rated Poland, and modestly above Qatar’s comparable five-year yield. The Finance Ministry credited the result to investors’ confidence in Kazakhstan’s macroeconomic management and fiscal credibility, strengthened by the country’s ongoing budget and tax reforms enacted in 2025. These measures have reinforced perceptions of policy discipline and institutional reliability, enabling Kazakhstan to secure funding at exceptionally low costs.
June 2025: Dual-Tranche Success
In June 2025, Kazakhstan executed a $2.5 billion dual-tranche Eurobond comprising a 7-year $1.35 billion note at 5.0% and a 12-year $1.15 billion note at 5.5%. Investor demand was exceptional, with orders roughly twice the issue size from global funds across Europe, the U.S., and Asia. The transaction priced tightly against comparable BBB sovereigns, reflecting market confidence in Kazakhstan’s low debt levels, ample reserves, and consistent reform momentum.
Together, the June and October offerings have demonstrated Kazakhstan’s ability to tap international markets repeatedly in 2025 on favorable terms, even amid global volatility.
Fiscal Strength and Ratings Support
Kazakhstan’s strong market performance rests on a robust fiscal foundation and solid credit ratings. Fitch Ratings has affirmed Kazakhstan’s long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating at ‘BBB’ with a Stable Outlook, noting the country’s low government debt – around 25% of GDP – and substantial sovereign net foreign assets supported by the National Fund and foreign-exchange reserves. Combined reserves and National Fund assets total roughly $93 billion, equal to about 31% of GDP.
S&P Global Ratings, which upgraded Kazakhstan’s outlook to Positive in August 2025, forecasts 5.5–5.6% GDP growth and has commended progress in deficit reduction and institutional reform. The agency noted that Kazakhstan’s new Budget and Tax Codes, along with tighter fiscal rules and improved oversight of quasi-fiscal activities, are expected to strengthen fiscal consolidation and institutional transparency.
These reforms, together with the country’s moderate debt burden and substantial sovereign assets, have helped sustain investor confidence. Kazakhstan’s ability to issue Eurobonds at yields tighter than some A-rated peers demonstrates that credibility in practice, and market participants now view the country as the regional benchmark sovereign in Central Asia.
Uzbekistan: Reform Progress, Higher Yields
In February 2025, Uzbekistan raised roughly $1.5 billion equivalent through a multi-currency sovereign issue — a $500 million 7-year U.S. dollar tranche at 6.95%, a €500 million 4-year euro tranche at 5.1%, and a UZS 6 trillion 3-year local-currency note at 15.5%. Total demand reached about $4.2 billion, nearly 2.8 times oversubscribed, underscoring strong interest despite global rate volatility.
Fitch upgraded Uzbekistan to ‘BB’ (Stable) in June 2025, citing accelerated structural reforms and resilient growth. International reserves exceeded $50 billion as of September 2025, buoyed by rising gold prices. While GDP growth continues at around six percent, the yields achieved by Uzbekistan remain materially wider than those of more mature issuers, reflecting its shorter track record in global capital markets.
Kyrgyzstan: A Debut Success with Frontier-Market Pricing
In May 2025, Kyrgyzstan entered the international markets with a $700 million, five-year Eurobond priced at 7.75%, marking its first sovereign issue. Demand topped $2.1 billion – about three times oversubscribed – with participation from more than 100 investors across the U.S., Europe, and Asia.
The yield reflected Kyrgyzstan’s higher-risk, frontier-market profile. Fitch rated the country ‘B’ (Stable), and Moody’s kept it at ‘B3’, raising the outlook to Positive after GDP grew 11.5% year-on-year in early 2025. Proceeds are being channeled into infrastructure and debt-management projects, a prudent strategy for a debut sovereign issuer. The Times of Central Asia previously described the debut as a “landmark Eurobond launch” on the London Stock Exchange, noting proceeds were directed to infrastructure and debt management.
Global Perspective
Kazakhstan remains Central Asia’s most established sovereign issuer, combining investment-grade strength, fiscal prudence, and steady market access at tight spreads. Its 2025 performance reaffirmed that stability and aligned it more closely with mature emerging-market peers in Eastern Europe and the Middle East.
Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, while still considered frontier markets, are advancing along a constructive path toward deeper participation in global capital markets. Uzbekistan’s reform-driven issuance and Kyrgyzstan’s well-received debut both highlight rising investor confidence and the region’s expanding market footprint.
Together, these developments point to a more diversified and resilient sovereign landscape in Central Asia, reflecting steady progress in policy credibility and access to international investors.
Yatimov’s meeting with Vafo was not the first time the Tajik GKNB chief had met with Taliban representatives. In September 2024, Yatimov went to Kabul to hold
