• KGS/USD = 0.01143 -0%
  • KZT/USD = 0.00192 -0%
  • TJS/USD = 0.10820 0.19%
  • UZS/USD = 0.00008 0%
  • TMT/USD = 0.28575 0%
  • KGS/USD = 0.01143 -0%
  • KZT/USD = 0.00192 -0%
  • TJS/USD = 0.10820 0.19%
  • UZS/USD = 0.00008 0%
  • TMT/USD = 0.28575 0%
  • KGS/USD = 0.01143 -0%
  • KZT/USD = 0.00192 -0%
  • TJS/USD = 0.10820 0.19%
  • UZS/USD = 0.00008 0%
  • TMT/USD = 0.28575 0%
  • KGS/USD = 0.01143 -0%
  • KZT/USD = 0.00192 -0%
  • TJS/USD = 0.10820 0.19%
  • UZS/USD = 0.00008 0%
  • TMT/USD = 0.28575 0%
  • KGS/USD = 0.01143 -0%
  • KZT/USD = 0.00192 -0%
  • TJS/USD = 0.10820 0.19%
  • UZS/USD = 0.00008 0%
  • TMT/USD = 0.28575 0%
  • KGS/USD = 0.01143 -0%
  • KZT/USD = 0.00192 -0%
  • TJS/USD = 0.10820 0.19%
  • UZS/USD = 0.00008 0%
  • TMT/USD = 0.28575 0%
  • KGS/USD = 0.01143 -0%
  • KZT/USD = 0.00192 -0%
  • TJS/USD = 0.10820 0.19%
  • UZS/USD = 0.00008 0%
  • TMT/USD = 0.28575 0%
  • KGS/USD = 0.01143 -0%
  • KZT/USD = 0.00192 -0%
  • TJS/USD = 0.10820 0.19%
  • UZS/USD = 0.00008 0%
  • TMT/USD = 0.28575 0%
13 December 2025

Kazakhstan’s Independence Day: Plenty to Cheer, More to Consider

As Kazakhstan prepares to celebrate its Independence Day on December 16th, The Times of Central Asia (TCA) sat down with its special correspondent, Javier M. Piedra, a banker, corporate executive, writer, and seasoned international development expert whose professional ties to Kazakhstan date back to 2000. Piedra lived in Kazakhstan for 16 years. Over that time, he headed KPMG’s M&A (2007 – 2012), set up a credit bureau – the only one in the region at the time – and was a senior advisor for a private equity fund. He also taught corporate finance at Narxoz University. Back in Washington, he later managed USAID’s multibillion-dollar Asia Bureau under Donald Trump. Drawing on decades of experience in financial consulting, international development, and regional policy, Piedra offers wide-ranging insights into the nation’s evolution since 1991.

In this conversation, he reflects on the mindset of Kazakhstan’s leadership – especially in recent years – that has led to, despite challenges, to its achievements – from economic reforms and institutional development to social progress and an increasingly dynamic national outlook. He highlights milestones worth celebrating, offers guidance to the next generation, and provides nuanced commentary on religious freedom and the country’s ongoing development path.

The views expressed in this interview are those of the speaker and do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of The Times of Central Asia.

TCA: As Kazakhstan marks Independence Day on December 16, what core achievements of the country are most worth celebrating at this moment in its history?

Piedra: On December 16th, I expect – and this is good news – President Tokayev to repeat what he said last year, i.e., “I am convinced that by maintaining our unity, tranquility and stability in society, we will overcome all challenges and reach new heights on the path of progress.” Put simply, Kazakhstan can stay unified and stable despite challenges if it commits to doing so. People need to hear this message because it is positive, and the record supports his optimism. It is worth celebrating the country’s positive attitude and confidence in the future.

Kazakhstan’s greatest achievement since independence, despite forces pushing in the contrary direction, has been the ability of its multiethnic and multicultural society to flourish. Kazakhstan has preserved unity, strengthened friendships with neighbors, ensured economic freedoms, and inspired its youth with hope, despite trials, corruption, and human shortcomings.

Kazakhstan’s dedication to unity is strengthened by its refusal to get pulled into unnecessary geopolitical ambitions or Great Power maneuverings that tend to rob countries of their sovereignty; this mindset is worth celebrating on Independence Day.

TCA: You mention “confidence in the future.” What does that mean in the context of Independence Day?

Piedra: The early days of Independence were rough, very rough, not only for Kazakhstan, but for the rest of the countries of Central Asia. Since independence in 1991, Kazakhstan has worked hard to build social and institutional structures that enable people to have greater “confidence in the future,” and there were many mistakes made, but Kazakhstan came away stronger and clearer-eyed. As I mentioned already, without a positive outlook, pessimism and negativity could have set in, destroying the common man’s ability to participate in the building of the nation. But that did not happen.

Over time, an increasing number of citizens recognized Kazakhstan’s development path as sound, since everyday life remained comparatively calm and stable even amid uncertainty, cronyism, institutional weaknesses, and assorted other corruption-related difficulties.

Independence shows itself when fear, despair, and disorder are limited in society. Kazakhstan’s ongoing commitment to its traditional values, though not without flaws, contributes to the sense of “confidence in the future.”

TCA: How would you describe Kazakhstan’s approach to nation-building and governance since independence, particularly in terms of its socio-economic model and the values that underpin it?

Piedra: One can debate the meaning of ‘nation-building,’ both in theory and in practice. But it is my sense that Kazakhstan has tried to implement a system of governance oriented to the common welfare, which means the implementation of a socio-economic program that respects human dignity, subsidiarity, and solidarity – these are important concepts. Astana has been putting in place the socio-political infrastructure to help all people and communities, not just the privileged, maintain their families and make ends meet. Fortunately, Kazakhstan recognized that nation-building required ditching the legacy of Soviet atheism in the body politic and society. That recognition, however, did not mean embracing forms of ideological neoliberal atheism as an economic model – but that is a different story which I can touch upon later.

TCA: What are some of the changes that have been made over the past five years? You speak of subsidiarity; what is the meaning of subsidiarity?

Piedra: I am glad you flagged the term “subsidiarity,” which is a fundamental principle, in my opinion, for meaningful change at an organic level. In the context of Kazakhstan, subsidiary means that Kazakhstan’s leadership has been comfortable with the idea that decisions – social, economic, and political – should be made as close to the people affected by those decisions as possible, with outside authorities stepping in only as and when local groups truly cannot handle problems or deliver on a public service. More work needs to be done. but the concept of subsidiarity is not foreign to the cultures of Central Asia.

At a structural level, changes have come about through political reforms that strengthen institutions and demand responsible governance at a local level. The process of reforms, of course, is a work in progress and filled with shortcomings, but at least it seems that genuine efforts are being made to decentralize decision-making.

At the economic level, the country is shifting from raw-material dependence towards diversified industries, SME growth, value-added exports, and stronger educational systems to support long-term development.

TCA: There is a lot of talk in the West about the need to reform the reigning – and many would argue failed – global economic system of ideological neoliberalism. In the context of Kazakhstan, can you share your thoughts?

Piedra: In the first instance, I must say that there is more to economics and economic theory than productivity, shareholder wealth, efficiency, and the implementation of cost-saving measures – that is all good. But Kazakhstan, it seems to me, based on years of observation, sees economic development more from the perspective of common good capitalism – at least at a policy level – than from that of corporate shareholders and minority special interest groups. This, in my opinion, is worth celebrating on Independence Day. Kazakhstan wants economic opportunity available over time to the majority on a stable basis, which is a measure of success in itself.

At a more granular level, Kazakhstan’s experience reflects its broader reckoning with neoliberalism as an economic model. In the West, neoliberalism promised prosperity but more often than not produced inequality and impoverished millions, resulting in oligarchic wealth concentration without meaningful trickle-down. Experience shows that unfettered privatization in Central Asia in the 1990s undermined social trust.

Recognizing this, in recent years, Kazakhstan introduced a new paradigm – curbing oligarchic dominance, promoting SME development, and supporting local enterprise through targeted financing and regulation. It also favored pragmatic entrepreneurship over cold economic ideology that lacks any empathy for the common man, the family, and society at large. This is worth celebrating as well.

TCA: Independence Day is especially meaningful for the younger generation. What guidance or message would you like to offer to young Kazakhs as they contribute to the country’s future development?

Piedra: Kazakhstan’s young people, shaped by respect for a multicultural society, benefit from living in a nation that prioritizes its citizens over special interests and agendas disconnected from the country’s future. What I mean is that the youth should not be mesmerized by terms like “globalism” and “multiculturalism” in an ideological sense – those ideas tend to facilitate the elimination of a nation’s personal history and identity.

What’s more, Independence Day should hold resonance among Kazakhstan’s youth as a testament to tangible progress since the turbulent 1990s – an era marked by post-Soviet chaos and institutional breakdown. Students in college today do not remember those days. Youth should sit down with elders and ask questions and listen instead of – if I may say – playing games or engaging in senseless blabber on the internet.

There’s another point I’d like to make – and it is a note of warning. Even though credit expansion – bank lending at the retail level – sounds great, students should be vigilant. While youth benefit from enhanced access to business/housing finance, financial literacy does not guarantee against overindebtedness and credit schemes designed to create unnecessary dependencies. One’s desires should not be financed by others’ money or wishful thinking. Those dependencies often lead to despair and a sense of helplessness. A healthy society avoids overindebtedness.

TCA: Speaking of demographics, since Independence, Kazakhstan’s population growth has been significant. Is this a measure of success? Is it a matter to celebrate on Independence Day?

Piedra: President Tokayev said this past September that “The family is a sacred concept for our people. Every person, first of all, is shaped as an individual within their cherished home, where they learn by example and absorb the noble qualities inherent in a true citizen. Thanks to the upbringing received in the family, our country raises patriotic, hardworking, educated, and cultured generations.” That mindset is something to celebrate on Independence Day and an attitude that, unfortunately, has been lost to many in the so-called developed world.

The family is the fundamental building block of society.  Family cohesion matters because it strengthens the fabric of society, and a strong society underpins economic stability and growth. By celebrating children, supporting motherhood and childhood, and promoting traditional family values, as Kazakhstan does, the country is not only fostering demographic growth and national solidarity, but also building a reliable foundation for long‑term prosperity. Yes – new children and healthy families are worth celebrating on this Independence Day.

TCA: President Tokayev talked about the need for civility, not rudeness, in everyday life in his Republic Day address this past October. What did he mean?

Piedra: Yes, President Tokayev made comments about the need for more civil behavior in his Republic Day Address. I think Tokayev was saying that true independence means acting in accordance with – making every effort to live by – traditional values and civil norms of behavior while keeping in mind the common good of the nation. Tokayev sees refined manners – or, in his words, “culture, integrity, and decency,” i.e., civilized behavior – as essential for genuine human development.  He has stated that “rudeness, profanity, and brawls have unfortunately become commonplace [in society]” and exhorted people to “develop an intolerance towards insults, cruelty, and violence.”

In his recent State of the Nation speech, Tokayev said that “[Our citizens] must unite and support each other and rid ourselves of such negative qualities as envy and ill will.” Most anywhere else, that would draw jeers, not cheers. Tokayev went further: “Disparaging someone’s work, ridiculing their opinion, or denigrating another person are actions alien to a developed, civilized society and are even shameful”.

It is difficult to imagine a European head of state who would, in a major public address, articulate concerns about civilized behavior, mocking others, and envy. In my opinion, a free and independent society will discuss these matters openly, and that is another reason to celebrate.

TCA: Moving onto a sensitive issue, would it be fair to say that the status of religious freedom in Kazakhstan is a matter to celebrate or decry three decades after independence in 1991?

Piedra: Religious freedom is a sensitive issue. I will therefore stick to what I know best. Since Kazakhstan’s independence in 1991, the Catholic Church has grown from a tiny, formerly repressed community into a stable nationwide institution. Under Soviet rule, there were only about two registered Catholic churches – in hidden-away places for private worship – but by 2024, the institutional Catholic Church had expanded to more than 70 parishes and a significant network of pastoral centers with an open and public community life. Clergy and religious personnel – who may walk outdoors publicly wearing a cassock if they so wish – have also increased: from a handful of priests in the early 1990s to around 95 priests and 105 religious sisters today. Is that a good or bad thing?

Although the exact numbers fluctuate, the Catholic population today in Kazakhstan is estimated at less than 150,000, representing a small but steady minority despite significant emigration of ethnic-German and Polish Catholics after independence.

This growth is remarkable because it occurred after decades of Soviet repression, when the Church had almost no legal presence in the country and operated largely underground. After independence, new freedoms allowed the Vatican to establish dioceses, rebuild institutions, and open parishes across the country. These churches are perfectly visible and often smack in the middle of town in plain view. The Catholic church also diversified from a mostly European-origin community into a multiethnic one. Its expansion – despite a decline among traditional Catholic groups – reflects institutional depth, growing pastoral capacity, and the ability to sustain a meaningful religious presence in the public square in a majority-Muslim nation. As a final note, Pope John Paul II and Pope Francis, who visited Kazakhstan on separate occasions, met with the President of the Republic. I was there on both occasions.

TCA: Concerning geopolitics, do you think it’s true that Kazakhstan is a force for peace in the region and on the world stage?

Piedra: Kazakhstan has positioned itself as a magnet for stability in Central Asia – but this is true in part because the other countries in the region are of the same mindset. Kazakhstan seeks cooperation and compromise instead of conflict on the international stage. It also has an emergent middle power status, pursuing diplomatic mediation, reconciliation, and open border policies beyond Central Asia. To its credit, Kazakhstan has worked to reduce long-standing tensions in other parts of the world, expand intraregional trade, and promote connectivity via transport corridors – the Middle Corridor and the North-South Corridor are but two examples. No other country has organized as many regional forums over the past 25 years as Kazakhstan. These efforts reflect a growing emphasis on diplomacy, with Kazakhstan working as a convening and stabilizing actor in the international arena. Kazakhstan has not taken sides in others’ conflicts or ambitions, but rather engaged thoughtfully and constructively. That is worth celebrating on Independence Day.

TCA: Explain how Kazakhstan has maintained its foreign policy independence despite close relations with China, Russia, the United States, and Europe.

Piedra: Kazakhstan maintains foreign policy independence by skillfully balancing relations with major powers. While it has close economic ties with Russia and China, it also engages the United States and Europe, leveraging these relationships to achieve mutually beneficial outcomes. India is also increasingly in the picture. Through smart diplomacy, Kazakhstan ensures that no single country can dominate its decisions, pursuing realistic ambitions without alienating any partner.

The country reinforces its autonomy by emphasizing its sovereignty, stability, and active participation in international organizations. By promoting win-win deals and a pragmatic, rules-based approach to global engagement, Kazakhstan secures its interests while navigating the regional balance of power, preserving both independence and influence. That is also worth celebrating.

Organization of Turkic States Discusses Key Eurasian Energy Projects

At the 5th meeting of ministers responsible for energy within the Organization of Turkic States (OTS), held on December 10 in Istanbul, OTS Secretary General Kubanychbek Omuraliev outlined major joint energy initiatives underway among member states.

Founded in 2009, the OTS comprises Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkey, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan. Hungary and Northern Cyprus participate as observer states.

Omuraliev touched upon the following projects:

  • Major oil and gas routes such as the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline, Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum (BTE) gas pipeline, South Caucasus Pipeline, Trans-Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline (TANAP), Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP), and the Iğdır-Nakhchivan gas pipeline;
  • A strategic partnership between Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan to develop and transmit green energy;
  • The Azerbaijan-Georgia-Turkey-Bulgaria Green Energy Corridor, which extends the Central Asia-Azerbaijan corridor and opens new avenues for energy exports to Europe;
  • Construction of the Kambarata-1 Hydropower Plant in Kyrgyzstan, a project jointly developed with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan; and
  • A planned Black Sea submarine cable to transmit renewable energy.

Omuraliev emphasized that enhanced intra-OTS cooperation bolsters both the economic potential of member states and regional energy security.

Ministers at the meeting noted the significant fossil fuel and clean energy resources held by OTS members and observers, describing the region as a strategic energy bridge between Asia and Europe. They stressed that advancing practical cooperation is essential amid growing global energy demand and the accelerating energy transition.

Participants agreed to move forward with joint projects under the OTS framework, including the establishment of a Regional Center for Technologies and Green Initiatives.

As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, on December 5, the Board of Governors of the Turkic Investment Fund announced in Bishkek that the fund will begin operations in the first quarter of 2026.

The Turkic Investment Fund is the first dedicated financial institution jointly established by OTS member states. Headquartered in Istanbul, its mandate is to promote economic cooperation, boost intra-regional trade, and support sustainable development by financing major joint initiatives across the region.

Ashgabat Hosts Forum Marking International Year of Peace and Trust

An international forum marking the 30th anniversary of Turkmenistan’s permanent neutrality has opened at the Maslahat Köşgi Palace in Ashgabat. The event has drawn high-level delegations and representatives of international organizations.

Among those attending are President of Turkmenistan Serdar Berdimuhamedov, President of Russia Vladimir Putin, and the presidents of Turkey and Iran, Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Masoud Pezeshkian.

The forum has also brought together the presidents of the Central Asian states, including President of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, President of Kyrgyzstan Sadyr Japarov, President of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev, and President of Tajikistan Emomali Rahmon. Other participants include Prime Minister of Pakistan Mian Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif, Prime Minister of Georgia Irakli Kobakhidze, and Prime Minister of Azerbaijan Ali Asadov, along with other heads of state and government.

In his opening address, President Berdimuhamedov said neutrality has provided a strong foundation for Turkmenistan’s sustainable development. He noted that the country’s foreign policy is guided by principles of peace, trust, and mutual respect, and that Turkmenistan’s approach to neutrality reflects long-standing traditions of good neighborliness and harmony.

The forum is being held as a broad international dialogue and is expected to open new opportunities for promoting global peace and expanding international cooperation.

Ahead of the forum’s opening, President Berdimuhamedov and visiting foreign leaders took part in a ceremonial flower-laying at the Monument of Neutrality in Ashgabat as part of the official events commemorating the country’s neutral status.

Turkmenistan’s permanent neutrality was formally recognized by a United Nations General Assembly resolution on December 12, 1995. In 2017, at Ashgabat’s initiative, the General Assembly designated December 12 as International Neutrality Day.

In 2025, the United Nations declared the International Year of Peace and Trust. In this context, the Peace and Trust forum is being held on December 12 in Ashgabat with the participation of leaders from member states of the Organization of Turkic States.

Kazakhstan Looks to Reduce Dependence on Russian Oil Transit Routes

Escalating drone attacks on Russian infrastructure amid the ongoing war in Ukraine, including key facilities in Novorossiysk and the Orenburg region, are compelling Kazakhstan to accelerate its search for alternative oil export routes. In this context, the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), which transits Russian territory, is increasingly viewed as an unreliable option for transporting the country’s crude oil.

In November, damage to the VPU-2 single-point mooring at the Yuzhnaya Ozereyevka terminal near Novorossiysk disrupted operations. Only VPU-1 remains functional, while VPU-3 is undergoing scheduled maintenance. As a result, CPC oil shipments have dropped. The pipeline accounts for over 80% of Kazakhstan’s oil exports, more than 1% of global production. The Kazakh Ministry of Energy clarified that exports were not fully halted and that efforts are underway to reroute shipments.

First Kashagan Oil Shipment to China via Atasu-Alashankou

On December 8, Reuters reported that Kazakhstan would begin exporting oil from the Kashagan field directly to China for the first time via the Atasu-Alashankou pipeline. The route, which leads to Xinjiang, has previously been used for other fields but not for Kashagan.

According to the report, Kazakhstan plans to export 50,000 tons of crude oil through this channel. Of that, the Chinese oil company, China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), will receive approximately 30,000 tons, while Japan’s Inpex will take 20,000 tons. Although the pipeline’s annual capacity is around 10 million tons, it has been operating below capacity, averaging 85,000-86,000 tons per month.

The Kazakh government had initially planned to ship 1 million tons via this pipeline in 2025, less than the 1.2 million tons exported in 2024. In the first ten months of 2025, shipments reached 858,000 tons, according to industry sources.

Kashagan is among Kazakhstan’s most strategic assets and one of the largest oil and gas fields discovered globally in the past 40 years. Operated by the NCOC consortium, which includes ExxonMobil, Shell, TotalEnergies, CNPC, Inpex, and KazMunayGas, the field produces more than 15 million tons of oil annually. Until now, nearly all of this was transported via the CPC.

Redirecting Oil Amid Infrastructure Damage

On December 10, KazTransOil, the national oil pipeline operator, announced that it had redirected oil exports from the CPC system to alternative routes. In December 2025 alone, an additional 360,000 tons of oil are expected to be exported to Russia (via Samara), China, and across the Caspian Sea. Increases in exports from the original plan include: Atyrau-Samara pipeline: +232,000 tons; To China: +72,000 tons; and through the port of Aktau to the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline: +58,000 tons.

KazTransOil has also stated it will allow oil companies to temporarily store oil at its tank farm. This would enable greater flexibility in shipment scheduling, optimize pipeline operations, and help maintain uninterrupted deliveries. Rail transport is also being considered to further diversify logistics.

In 2024, Kazakhstan exported 54.9 million tons of oil through the CPC. Additional exports included 8.8 million tons via the Atyrau-Samara pipeline, 3.6 million tons via Aktau, and 1.2 million tons to China via Atasu-Alashankou.

The BTC pipeline, operational since 2006, stretches 1,768 kilometers, 443 km through Azerbaijan, 249 km through Georgia, and 1,076 km through Turkey. Some oil from Aktau port is routed into the BTC, offering an alternative pathway to the Mediterranean and Turkish markets. In 2024, 1.4 million tons of Kazakh crude were transported via this route.

The BTC pipeline’s capacity is 50 million tons per year. Under the current agreement, Kazakhstan is permitted to export 1.5 million tons annually through this channel, with Azerbaijan open to increasing this to 2.2 million tons.

Acknowledging the Limits

Despite efforts to expand export options, Kazakhstan’s Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov admitted on December 9 that the country currently lacks a full-scale alternative to the CPC. “To date, there is no alternative to the CPC; we must admit this. Other routes cannot match the volume it transports, which is 65 million tons,” the minister said.

Strategic Role and European Partnerships

Kazakhstan continues to play a critical role in ensuring energy security for both Europe and Asia. On December 8, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev met with European Council President António Costa to discuss strengthening energy cooperation. The talks covered the stability of energy supplies and explored partnerships in critical minerals, nuclear energy, petrochemicals, and renewable energy sources.

Kazakhstan is aiming to move beyond its role as a raw material supplier by enhancing domestic processing and increasing the production of value-added products. According to Eurostat, the country ranks third in oil exports to Europe, accounting for 13% of supply, behind the U.S. (30%) and Norway (20%). The need for diversified export routes has thus become more urgent than ever.

ACRA Raises Kazakhstan Economic Growth Forecast

The Analytical Credit Rating Agency (ACRA) has released its updated forecast for Kazakhstan’s economy for 2026-2028, projecting annual growth of 5.3-5.9%. These figures exceed the government’s recent targets. According to the published report, the next three years will mark a period of accelerated expansion, driven by industry and construction, alongside strengthening value chains in services and agribusiness.

The government’s earlier forecast projected GDP growth of 5.4% in 2026, followed by stabilization at 5.3%. While ACRA offers a more optimistic outlook, it notes that achieving the targeted 6% growth will require a sharp increase in investment activity and a boost in foreign exchange earnings from exports. The agency also warns that accelerating growth may carry the risk of economic overheating and a new wave of inflation.

Investment remains the weak link in Kazakhstan’s growth model. From 2021 to 2025, investment accounted for only 15% of GDP, significantly lower than in comparable economies and previous periods of rapid expansion. For example, during 2010-2014, investment levels held at 18%, and in earlier years, they reached as high as 20-22%. Without restoring higher investment levels, sustaining growth above 5.5% could prove difficult.

Inflation risks also remain elevated. Contributing factors include household inflation expectations, imported inflation from neighboring countries, accelerated lending, and rising global food prices. Nevertheless, ACRA forecasts inflation to decline from 11.8% in 2025 to 8% in 2026, 6.2% in 2027, and 5.1% in 2028. The tenge is expected to gradually weaken to 555 per $ in 2026, 574 in 2027, and 594 in 2028.

ACRA highlights three major risks over the next three years. The first is export and logistics vulnerabilities. Kazakhstan’s primary oil export route continues to run through Novorossiysk, and any disruption along this corridor would quickly impact the current account and put downward pressure on the tenge.

The second risk concerns fiscal discipline. Rising expenditures are increasing reliance on transfers from the National Fund, which could reignite inflationary pressures if not managed prudently.

The third is the depreciation of the Russian ruble. A weaker ruble boosts imports, reduces exports, and worsens Kazakhstan’s trade balance.

While ACRA considers the likelihood of these risks occurring simultaneously to be low, their combined impact could seriously challenge Kazakhstan’s growth outlook.

As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev expects Kazakhstan’s GDP to grow by 6% in 2025, surpassing the $300 billion threshold for the first time.

Kazakhstan and Iran Discuss Trade on Pezeshkian’s Visit to Astana

Kazakhstan and Iran have announced plans to significantly deepen economic cooperation, aiming to triple bilateral trade turnover to $1 billion in the coming years. The announcement was made by Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev during the Kazakh-Iranian business forum, held as part of the official visit of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian to Astana.

According to Tokayev, mutual trade exceeded $340 million last year and is expected to “increase many times over” in 2024. The two countries have set an initial target of reaching $1 billion in trade, with an eventual goal of $2 billion, relying on expanded logistics and the establishment of sustainable supply chains. A key mechanism will be the opening of the Kazakhstan Trade House in Tehran, intended to facilitate systematic exports of Kazakhstani products.

Over the past two decades, Iran has invested more than $226 million in Kazakhstan’s economy, and more than 350 Iranian companies currently operate in the country. Tokayev emphasized Kazakhstan’s readiness to initiate new joint projects across sectors ranging from industry to agribusiness.

Strengthening corridors and access to the Persian Gulf

Tokayev highlighted the development of transport and logistics infrastructure as a primary enabler of increased trade. Kazakhstan, he noted, is a vital transit hub in Eurasia, with 85% of cargo between China and Europe passing through its territory.

Astana plans to construct a transport and logistics terminal at the port of Shahid Rajai, linking Kazakhstan’s ports of Aktau and Kuryk with the Iranian ports of Amirabad and Anzali. The Kazakh side also expressed readiness to integrate the ports of Bandar Abbas and Chabahar into the regional supply chain.

The Kazakhstan-Turkmenistan-Iran railway plays a central role in these plans. Traffic volumes along this corridor are expected to double by 2030, delivering a substantial boost to regional trade and industrial development.

Key market for Kazakh grain

Iran remains a key buyer of Kazakh grain. In the first 10 months of 2024 alone, exports reached $280 million. Total agricultural trade between the two countries stood at $220 million in 2023, underscoring the sector’s growth potential.

Iran’s Solico Group plans to build a dairy plant with an annual capacity of 200,000 tons and launch baby food production. Meanwhile, Kourosh Food Industry is exploring opportunities to establish vegetable oil plants and poultry farms.

Kazakhstan, in turn, is inviting Iranian investors to participate in modern manufacturing projects and develop export-oriented supply chains.

A shared challenge: the declining Caspian Sea

The environmental situation in the Caspian region was another key topic of discussion. Falling sea levels are already affecting port operations, logistics, and fish stocks. Tokayev called for the creation of an intergovernmental program to preserve the Caspian Sea and urged greater involvement from international organizations.

Kazakhstan intends to take part in the upcoming VII Caspian Summit in Tehran and has proposed hosting the IV Caspian Economic Forum within the next two years.

Pezeshkian noted that the private sector has already identified promising areas for collaboration from the creation of a joint shipping consortium on the Caspian to the development of mineral projects and the opening of an export park for Iranian building materials in Almaty.

As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, regular container traffic has now been launched between Russia and Iran via Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, further enhancing regional trade connectivity.