Kazakhstan International Affairs - The Times Of Central Asia

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Kazakhstan’s Astana Forum Offers Global South a New Multi-Vector Platform

Kazakhstan will convene the Astana International Forum (AIF) later this month, on May 29–30, emphasizing its profile as an active mediator in the evolving architecture of global diplomacy. The AIF began in 2008 as the Astana Economic Forum, originally conceived as a technocratic venue focused on macroeconomic development, fiscal strategy, and public-sector reform. In its early iterations, it drew regional economists, central bankers, and international development agencies together to discuss Kazakhstan’s integration into global financial institutions. While modest in its geopolitical profile, the Forum reflected Astana’s broader ambitions to participate in the global rules-based order without overt alignment. In 2023, the AIF was reconstituted with its new, broader mandate in response to international demands for such forums, given the evident erosion of consensus in multilateral governance structures. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has invoked Kazakhstan’s unique geopolitical position to advocate for the AIF as a new platform of balanced engagement, to serve as a “bridge between East and West,” reflecting Astana’s accumulated experience in dialogue facilitation and its ambition to ameliorate the deepening fragmentation of the international system. The rebranding of the Forum was more than cosmetic. It marked a deliberate effort by Kazakhstan to reach out beyond its customary Eurasian frame of reference. The Forum aspires to be a diplomatic innovation, seeking to complement existing institutions like the UN or OSCE without replacing them: a more flexible platform that would be more responsive to emergent global dynamics. This aspiration is of a piece with Kazakhstan’s growing participation in multilateral forums, serving different geopolitical functions, such as the Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia (CICA) and its engagements within the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and Organization of Turkic States (OTS). The AIF is envisioned as a complementary structure that transcends bloc affiliations, facilitating fluid dialogue among ideologically diverse actors. The 2024 edition of the Forum was intended to be larger-scale than the 2023 version, but it was abruptly canceled after catastrophic flooding struck several regions, an event President Tokayev described as the most devastating natural disaster in the country in eight decades. The state redirected its attention and resources toward recovery, and the Forum was deferred. The 2025 iteration, now reactivated, has adopted the banner message, “Connecting Minds, Shaping the Future.” This reflects an underlying logic in Kazakhstan’s foreign policy that privileges "multi-vectorialism" as a structure for autonomy. Within that structure, the AIF is seeking to create space for engagement among actors that often find themselves excluded from the inner circles of traditional diplomacy: the so-called "Global South," mid-sized Western powers, and immediate regional stakeholders. The agenda of the 2025 AIF consolidates four previous thematic streams into three: Foreign Policy and International Security, Energy and Climate Change, and Economy and Finance. This thematic restructuring signals an intention to deepen the Forum’s analytical focus while retaining general breadth across domains characterizing Kazakhstan’s long-term strategic interests. These interests are conditioned by the continuing development of Kazakhstan's economy. Domestic economic growth is projected to reach 4.5 to 5.0% in 2025, driven by...

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Drone Attacks Intensify Security Worries Over Moscow Anniversary Event

Concerns about the security of dignitaries are circulating ahead of Russia’s plans for May 9 celebrations in Moscow of the 80th anniversary of the victory over Nazi Germany, an event that leaders from Central Asia are expected to attend as the Russo-Ukrainian war continues. The unease relates to Ukraine’s growing capacity in drone warfare, a dominant feature of the battlefield after years of war between Ukrainian troops and invading Russian forces. On Sunday, Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin said air defense forces in the urban area of Podolsk, on the outskirts of Moscow, “repelled an attack” by four drones flying toward the capital. “According to preliminary data, there is no damage or casualties at the site of the fall of the debris. Emergency services specialists are working at the scene,” Sobyanin said on Telegram. Overnight, Ukrainian drones targeted Moscow again, disrupting operations at four of the city's airports. Sobyanin announced on Telegram that at least 19 Ukrainian drones were intercepted. Although no significant damage or injuries were immediately reported, debris from the intercepted drones landed on a major highway. On April 28, Russian President Vladimir Putin unilaterally declared a three-day ceasefire in the war with Ukraine from May 8 – 11 to coincide with the celebrations of victory in the Great Patriotic War, as the Soviet experience in World War II is called. But Ukraine rejected the proposal, saying it seems mainly designed to create a safe environment for its guests in Moscow and that a U.S-backed plan for a 30-day unconditional ceasefire would instead represent a serious step toward peace. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said Ukraine isn’t responsible for anyone’s safety on Russian territory on the day of the anniversary celebrations. Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of Russia's Security Council, has warned of massive retaliation if Ukraine strikes Moscow during the May 9 event, saying on Telegram that “in the event of a real provocation on Victory Day, no one can guarantee that May 10 will come in Kyiv.” An analyst who tracks drone technology, Russian military weapons development and related issues said Russia’s concern about the May 9 parade stems from Ukraine’s growing expertise in drones. “Ukrainian long-range drones can already strike across the entire [of] Russia's European (west of Urals) territory,” Samuel Bendett, a researcher at the Center for Naval Analyses, said on X. The city of Sevastopol in Russia-controlled Crimea won’t hold a Victory Day parade for security reasons, said city Gov. Mikhail Razvozhayev, according to Russia’s state-run news agency TASS. Sevastopol hasn’t held a parade in the last couple of years because of similar concerns. In 2014, Russian forces occupied and annexed the Ukrainian territory of Crimea, where Ukraine has conducted periodic attacks with drones and other weapons since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022. The Kremlin says Chinese President Xi Jinping will visit Russia at Putin’s invitation on May 7-10 and will attend the Victory Day celebrations. Russian state media have reported that the leaders of the Commonwealth of Independent States, or CIS, will also attend....

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As War Rages at Home, Sudanese Student Leaves Kazakhstan for Uncertain Future

A Sudanese student named Amir began studying at a university in Almaty, Kazakhstan in 2023, just a few months before rival military factions in his country launched a devastating civil war that, according to some estimates, has killed tens of thousands of people and forced more than 10 million to flee their homes. For Amir, the war was the beginning of an extended period of uncertainty during which he faced financial problems, worried about his displaced family back home, unsuccessfully applied for refugee status in Kazakhstan, feared deportation to Sudan and even faced the possibility of living in limbo in the Almaty airport. This weekend, a Kazakh human rights group said the situation of the Sudanese man had been “conditionally resolved positively for the moment” because authorities let him fly to an unspecified country that has visa-free entry for Sudanese nationals. Work on his case is expected to continue. The Kazakhstan International Bureau for Human Rights and Rule of Law (KIBHR), a non-governmental group that was founded in 1993, had helped Amir during his ordeal. The group did not provide his surname but posted photos of the young man on Facebook. It thanked Almaty airport officials for helping to resolve difficult issues as well offices of UNHCR, the United Nations refugee agency, in at least three countries. The relative improvement in Amir’s situation follows a state of limbo whose roots lie in the war between the Sudanese military and a militia called the Rapid Support Forces, the latest episode of violence in a country that has experienced multiple coup attempts over the decades. The latest fighting set off a humanitarian crisis and allegations of ethnic cleansing and war crimes. Amir “tried to obtain refugee status in Kazakhstan, but in practice, the country grants that status only in extremely rare cases,” said the human rights group KIBHR, which helped the Sudanese students with his unsuccessful appeals of the Kazakh court ruling against him. “Under the court’s decision, Amir had to leave Kazakhstan by May 1, so concerned individuals raised money for a ticket to Rwanda — one of the few countries Sudanese citizens can enter without a visa,” KIBHR said. “However, something went wrong: they didn’t even take his documents for review and immediately deported him from the airport back to Qatar, through which he had traveled en route to Rwanda.” In Doha airport, Amir was put on a flight back to Almaty, where authorities prepared to send him back to Qatar, according to the human rights group. But an airline refused to fly him to Qatar, leaving him stranded in Almaty and facing the possibility of deportation to Sudan. “What saved the situation was the concern that Amir might harm himself during the flight or his condition might seriously deteriorate, and they were unable to provide an escort. As a result, he was allowed to fly to one of the countries (not specified) that still has visa-free entry for Sudanese nationals, and he was admitted there,” the human rights group....

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Kazakhstan Sees Surge in Tourists from Arab Countries

Kazakhstan experienced a significant rise in tourism from the Arab world in 2024, with a 62% increase in visitors from five Arab countries, according to the Ministry of Tourism and Sports. Data from the Border Service indicates that the number of tourists from Oman surged by 80%, exceeding 15,000 visitors. The United Arab Emirates followed closely, with 14,700 tourists, a 40% increase compared to 2023. Saudi Arabia saw a 47% rise, contributing over 9,000 visitors. Meanwhile, tourist arrivals from Qatar increased by 50%, and visitors from Bahrain nearly quadrupled compared to 2022. In a bid to further attract travelers from the Gulf region, Kazakhstan participated in the Arabian Travel Market, held in Dubai from April 28 to May 1. The national stand highlighted major tourist destinations including Almaty, Astana, and the Baikonur Cosmodrome. The country promoted a diverse range of travel offerings, from cultural and culinary routes to scientific and educational tours. Kazakhstan was also among the most sought-after destinations for Arab tourists during the Eid al-Fitr holidays, marking the end of Ramadan. Overall, Kazakhstan continues to solidify its status as a rising international tourism destination. In 2024, the country welcomed 15.3 million visitors, a 66% increase from the previous year. Among them were 655,000 tourists from China, 146,000 from India, 130,000 from Turkey, 92,000 from Germany, and 40,000 from South Korea.

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Kazakhstan Has a Deal for Tajik Electricity, Now the Wait Begins

In the latest sign of Central Asian regional cooperation, Kazakhstan has signed a long-term deal to import electricity from Tajikistan. However, that electricity might not reach Kazakhstan anytime soon, as there are some important details that need to be worked out by Tajikistan before supplies can begin. Kazakhstan’s energy problems Kazakhstan has been experiencing severe energy deficits for several years now, particularly during winter months. Kazakh Senator Suyindik Aldashev said in late February this year that Kazakhstan would be short some 5.7 billion kilowatt hours (kWh) of electricity in 2025, which would be a 46% increase in the country’s electricity deficit compared to 2024. Kazakhstan was forced to import electricity from Russia during the winter of 2024 to help alleviate energy shortages. These shortages contributed to Kazakhstan's decision to hold a referendum to approve the construction of the country’s first nuclear power plant (NPP). To date, however, there has been no announcement of which company will build the NPP, so additional electricity from that source could be a decade or more away. This has led Kazakhstan to explore importing energy resources from its Central Asian neighbors. The head of Turkmenistan’s Halk Maslahaty (People’s Council) Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov just visited Kazakhstan and met with Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev with Turkmen gas exports to its northern neighbor high on the agenda. Kazakhstan has been in discussions with Tajikistan about electricity shipments for months, and the agreement was finalized toward the end of April. Rogun The source of the electricity Tajikistan intends to export to Kazakhstan is the Rogun Hydropower Plant (HPP) on the Vakhsh River, some 110 kilometers east of the Tajik capital Dushanbe. The Rogun HPP has a history of controversy. It was conceived in the 1960s when Tajikistan was a Soviet Republic. Construction on the project started in 1976, but not much had been done by the time the USSR collapsed in late 1991, and work ground to halt shortly thereafter. Russian company RUSAL signed an agreement in 2004 to invest more than $1 billion and finish building Rogun, but disputes over the project led the Tajik government to cancel the contract in 2007. One of the main differences between the two parties was RUSAL’s insistence the dam wall at Rogun be no higher than 285 meters, whereas the Tajik authorities wanted the original height of 335 meters. At 285 meters, the HPP’s output would have been 2400 megawatts (MW), while at 335 meters, the output would be 3600 MW. Russia’s Inter RAO EES was in talks with Tajikistan about the Rogun project in 2008, but in the end, nothing came from those negotiations. With no hope of foreign backing, Tajik President Emomali Rahmon started portraying Rogun as a project of national salvation, the key to energy independence. Rahmon’s government called on citizens to help finance construction of the HPP and when public support in the poorest country in Central Asia proved insufficient, citizens were pressured into buying shares in the project. The government in neighboring Uzbekistan objected to Rogun’s construction,...

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U.S. Deports Over 100 Central Asian Migrants on Uzbek Charter Flight

More than 100 people from Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan who were illegally in the United States have been deported on a charter flight organized by the Uzbek government, the U.S. Embassy in Tashkent said on Thursday. The operation, which happened on Wednesday, was “the first in which a U.S. partner proactively provided a dedicated flight to repatriate its citizens” and underscores collaboration on issues such as counterterrorism and law enforcement, according to the embassy. “By organizing and funding the removal of its citizens present illegally in the United States and allowing the removal of nationals from other countries on Uzbek flights, Uzbekistan demonstrated its role as a trusted and proactive partner in the realm of international security,” it said. The embassy statement did not provide details on the people who were deported. U.S. President Donald Trump had campaigned on the promise of the mass deportation of migrants that he said were in the country without permission, and Immigration and Customs Enforcement has carried out deportations in line with that pledge since he took office for a second term in January. The speed and severity of the crackdown have alarmed advocates who have argued in court that the U.S. administration is denying due process to some migrants. U.S. relations with some of its traditional allies, including Canada and European countries, have frayed since Trump took office. But Uzbekistan and several other Central Asian countries appear to have maintained a relatively harmonious dialogue with the Trump administration while also collaborating with regional powers Russia and China. On April 9, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Uzbek Foreign Minister Bakhtiyor Saidov met in Washington to discuss investment, critical minerals and security matters. Rubio “thanked Uzbekistan for their efforts to facilitate the return of their deportees from the United States,” the U.S. State Department said. U.S. plans for mass deportations have been a source of concern for Central Asian communities in the United States. This month, Kazakhstan urged any of its citizens who are subject to a U.S. deportation order but remain in the United States to voluntarily return home by using a U.S. Department of Homeland Security mobile app. The Kazakh Embassy in Washington urged those nationals to do so in order “to prevent possible negative consequences” such as fines, a ban on re-entry to the United States and other penalties. In January, Kyrgyzstan warned its citizens to follow U.S. immigration law and always carry relevant documents with them.