The mass migration of Russians following the war in Ukraine has significantly impacted Kazakhstan’s economy and social fabric. However, many Russian citizens who initially sought refuge in the country are now returning home.

Adapting to Post-Soviet Countries Proves Challenging

According to independent Russian demographer Alexei Raksha, Russian migrants who left their homeland after February 2022 are more likely to return from Kazakhstan than from other countries.

An estimated 800,000-900,000 people left Russia following the outbreak of war in Ukraine, the first wave coming after the military campaign was launched, and the second following the announcement of a partial mobilization in September 2022, when queues on the Russian side of the Verkhny Lars border with Georgia stretched for twenty miles. Reports of graft were rife, with the police blocking the roads and demanding bribes from those attempting to flee. Free seats in cars were being sold for $1,000, with border guards charging $200 for an exit stamp.

The Georgian side of the Verkhny Lars border with Russia; image: TCA, Stephen M. Bland

This wave of migration left Russia with a labor shortage of some 4.8 million people. The choice of destination was often influenced by visa-free entry, ease of legalization, and the presence of acquaintances.

Prices in Tbilisi skyrocketed in 2022-23, leading to a surge in evictions, resentment, and understandable fears given previous invasions that Russia would use the new diaspora as a pretext for another incursion. A similar situation occurred in Yerevan. “With the influx of Russians, rents in Yerevan doubled and, in some cases, even tripled,” Ani Khachataryan, an environmental activist told TCA.

Migration continued in 2023, but the number of returnees also increased. Around 45% of those fleeing Russia initially went to Georgia, Kazakhstan, and Armenia, though by 2023, that share had dropped to 32%. As of July 2024, at least 650,000 people who left Russia after it invaded Ukraine were estimated to still be abroad.

Migration routes were fluid: 64% of Russians stayed in their first destination, while 26% moved further, often to the European Union, the United Kingdom, or Switzerland. About 10% returned to Russia. Among those who relocated, nearly half changed countries more than once, with Serbia emerging as a new hub. Many continued working remotely for Russian companies or found employment with Western firms.

Most returnees came from the former Soviet republics, with Kazakhstan leading the trend – one in five Russian emigrants in Kazakhstan eventually went back. By contrast, those who settled in the European Union, the United States, Canada, and Israel were far less likely to return.

Raksha attributes this pattern to economic factors: Russians who moved to post-Soviet states, including Kazakhstan, tended to be middle-income earners. Meanwhile, wealthier Russians, who had jobs with Western firms or owned businesses were more likely to relocate to the U.S. or Europe.

A Temporary Relocation

In September 2022, following Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decree on partial mobilization, Russian migrants surged into Kazakhstan. Long queues formed at border crossings, and some fleeing men abandoned their vehicles in a desperate bid to enter the country. According to Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Internal Affairs, more than 200,000 Russian citizens arrived in the country within weeks – though 147,000 quickly left. Only a few hundred applied for Kazakh citizenship, half of whom were ethnic Kazakhs.

The Kazakh authorities noted that over a million Russian citizens travel to Kazakhstan annually, indicating that the influx was not an extraordinary event. Nevertheless, the sudden surge led to economic disruptions, including rising prices, and fueled public anxiety.

By January 2024, Dmitry Turaev, Russia’s Consul General in Almaty, estimated that about 80,000 Russian migrants remained in Almaty and Shymkent, down from over 300,000 at the end of 2022. Turaev predicted that the trend of Russian citizens returning home would continue.

In response to the migration surge, Kazakhstan’s government implemented new regulations in January 2023 to restrict long-term stays. The so-called “visa run” practice – where foreigners could exit and re-enter the country to reset their permitted stay – was abolished. Now, visa-exempt foreigners, including Russians, can stay for a maximum of 90 days within any 180-day period.

A Pattern of Soaring Rental Prices

One of the most immediate consequences of mass migration was a surge in housing costs. Rental prices doubled in Astana, Shymkent, Kostanay, Uralsk, and Petropavlovsk, while in Almaty, they almost tripled. Although prices stabilized after several months, they remained significantly higher than pre-migration levels. The costs of goods and services also rose.

Financial expert Rasul Rysmambetov argues that, despite the strain on the housing market, the arrival of Russian migrants has positively impacted Kazakhstan’s economy.

“Most Russian relocants belong to the middle or upper-middle class and are financially stable, which has driven up consumption,” Rysmambetov told Nur.kz. “This increased demand benefits the economy, especially in the food and consumer goods sectors. Additionally, Russian specialists have brought business connections and facilitated the export of goods to Russia that are no longer available due to sanctions.”

Rysmambetov also believes Kazakhstan stands to benefit from competition between local and foreign professionals. Many Russian migrants are highly skilled, working in IT, finance, consulting, and investment services – fields in which Kazakhstan faces a workforce shortage.

“Some Russian companies have fully relocated to Kazakhstan and offer high-quality services,” Rysmambetov stated. “For example, IT specialists have integrated into Kazakhstani firms and are bringing valuable expertise to the market. Competition is ultimately beneficial.”

Experts suggest that a new wave of Russian migrants could occur only if another round of mobilization, partial or full, is announced, which appears unlikely at present given the recruitment of foreign fighters.

Exaggerated Expectations

Some Russian migrants arrived in Kazakhstan with unrealistic expectations. Igor K., a resident of Krasnodar who relocated to Kazakhstan in 2022, described his experience adjusting to life in the country.

“Many newcomers expected Kazakhstan to be either a desert filled with camels or a wealthy oil state like the Middle Eastern emirates,” Igor told The Times of Central Asia. “People from Russia’s eastern cities, Novosibirsk, Barnaul, and Yekaterinburg, often had little knowledge about the country.”

Igor, who previously lived in Kazakhstan before emigrating eleven years ago, was more prepared than most. He first arrived in Ust-Kamenogorsk, where he had acquaintances, before moving to Almaty.

“I struggled with employment at first. I worked as a cab driver, sales manager, and deliveryman. But after obtaining a residence permit, I landed a job with a large international company,” he said.

Many Russian migrants, he noted, had inflated expectations of Kazakhstan and either returned home or moved on to another country. Those who stayed found work in IT, journalism, and medicine. Russian companies operating in Almaty actively hire Russian professionals.

“Will Kazakhstan become a permanent home for us?” Igor asked rhetorically. “That’s an open question.”