Environmentalists say that Kazakhstan’s quota system for greenhouse gas emissions covers only half of the country’s emissions. This means that the state only has real leverage over large industrial polluters.
Experts say that the state needs to pay further attention in the near future to emissions in three sectors: agriculture, forestry, and waste management systems. These sectors currently remain virtually uncontrolled in terms of environmental emissions.
Kazakhstan ratified the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change in 1995 and, in 2016, presented its plan to the world community for transitioning to a green economy and achieving carbon neutrality. The carbon neutrality strategy envisages a 15% reduction in the 1990 level of emissions by 2030 (from 386.3 to 328.4 million tons of CO2) and achieving a net zero balance of greenhouse gases by 2060. The country has implemented a quota system for greenhouse gas emissions, and any industrial facility with emissions exceeding 20,000 tons of carbon dioxide per year is subject to quotas.
However, those “polluters” whose activities result in emissions of 10 to 20 thousand tons of CO2 are subject to regulation and must report to the state for their emissions, but they are not subject to quotas. Finally, economic entities that do not even reach 10,000 tons of emissions are not obliged to notify the state about the environmental damage they cause. As a result, the state can regulate only half of emissions. Aigul Malikova, coordinator of the Central Asia Regional Environmental Network in Kazakhstan, explained to The Times of Central Asia:
“In 2021, according to the national inventory, the actual volume of emissions across Kazakhstan amounted to 340 million tons, and quotas, including even additional ones, were issued for only 176 million, which means that only half of all greenhouse gas emissions fall under regulation, and in fact, we can affect only half of all emissions now. The situation is aggravated by the fact that in 2021, Kazakhstan produced one-third more emissions than the quotas granted; in 2022, this excess was 3%; that is, even regulated enterprises emit more than they are allowed under the quotas.”
Malikova also noted there is no data for 2023. Still, it is already clear that the government needs to control not only major industrial polluters but also other sectors of the economy that need to be more accountable in terms of emissions regulation to achieve carbon neutrality. However, assessing their contribution to total emissions is difficult since they are not even legally required to submit reports. Paradoxically, such sectors include agriculture and forestry, which by definition should be environmentally “clean,” as well as the waste management system and housing and communal services.
“For these three sectors – agriculture and forestry, waste management and housing, and communal services – data on greenhouse gas emissions could not be assessed at all. In the national reporting, this data is absent in the context of regions. In the reporting of the carbon cadastre, this data is also absent, and because they are not subject to quotas, no one obliges them to provide data voluntarily, and no one fines them. However, local authorities must know who emits it and how much is emitted. These opportunities are available, but for some reason, we do not use them,” concludes the coordinator of the regional environmental network of Central Asia.
At the same time, there is some scientific work to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the housing and utilities sector. Kanat Baigarin, advisor to the Nazarbayev University (NU), believes that Kazakhstan needs to focus on introducing clean energy in rural areas, where about 40% of the country’s population lives and mainly uses coal for heating and cooking. Gas should replace coal in rural areas, but this requires a radical adjustment of the government’s plans to increase gas supply coverage from 11.6 million people (59%) in 2022 to 13.5 million people (65%) by 2030. The main issue is that the country needs more resources to accelerate the pace of gasification.
“There is an example of the UK in the transition from coal to gas, but we have fewer resources than the UK of Margaret Thatcher’s time, so we should give up coal gradually. But I am against abandoning the use of coal altogether, and the abandonment should be segmented. Then, by 2050, it is possible to reduce the share of coal in the energy sector to 15-20%, not 40%, as planned. However, this requires political will and funds. And with the latter, the country’s budget in recent years is in a rather tense situation, “- says Baigarin.
There is also a social aspect of the transition of the housing and utilities sector from coal to gas because about 32,000 people are currently employed in the country’s coal industry. The head of the Department for Labor Protection and the Prevention and Resolution of Labor Disputes of the Federation of Trade Unions of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Marat Imash, notes that before talking about reducing the use of products from this industry, it is necessary to create new jobs for these people.
Meanwhile, the Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources of Kazakhstan promises to publish a Roadmap on measures to decarbonize the country’s economy by the end of this year. It will contain quantitative indicators for reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the main sectors of the economy, including energy and agriculture. This document will outline plans to reduce emissions in the very half of emissions uncontrolled by the state, which environmentalists focus on. However, it is still being determined whether this document will provide any leverage against violators of this plan.
