Russia sharply increased diesel supplies to Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan in August after a summer slump in Russian fuel exports strained both countries’ markets and pushed prices higher. But the August rebound underscored a weakness already exposed over the summer: disruptions at Russian refineries can quickly ripple through fuel markets across both countries.
In August, Kyrgyzstan received more than 72,000 tons of Russian diesel, up from just 4,400 tons in July. Supplies to Tajikistan rose from 16,000 tons to more than 56,000 tons, around 3.5 times the July level.
Overall, Russia exported more than 370,000 tons of diesel to Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Mongolia in August, more than double the July volume. Kazakhstan received around 28,000 tons after no deliveries in July, while Mongolia imported about 215,000 tons.
Russia’s diesel production recovered to around 170,000 tons per day in August, but Moscow maintained restrictions on exports to protect its domestic market, with exceptions for countries covered by intergovernmental agreements. The summer disruption showed that such arrangements do not insulate Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan from falling production at Russian refineries.
Kyrgyzstan Starts to Diversify
Kyrgyzstan consumes around 1.6 million tons of petroleum products a year and receives the overwhelming majority of its imports from Russia. The summer disruption pushed Bishkek to look for additional sources. The authorities discussed purchases from Kazakhstan, Belarus, Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan. Belarusian deliveries began arriving in July, while China also sent an initial batch of fuel. In August, Kyrgyz officials opened talks with China’s Sinopec over further supplies.
Another option is to refine more crude oil domestically. In August, 35,000 tons of crude were shipped through Kazakhstan to Kyrgyzstan for processing at local refineries. The new route gives Bishkek another way to source feedstock while reducing its dependence on finished gasoline and diesel from Russian refineries.
The 72,000 tons of Russian diesel delivered in August largely offset July’s collapse rather than establishing a new level of supply.
Tajikistan’s Options
Tajikistan is even more dependent. In the first half of 2026, the country imported 599,500 tons of petroleum products worth $494.7 million. Russia accounted for 91.1% of those supplies. Diesel imports totaled 300,200 tons.
The reduction in supplies became visible on the streets of Dushanbe over the summer. In early July, diesel disappeared from some filling stations, while others limited purchases to 20 liters per vehicle. By late July, prices at some stations had reached 17–18 somoni (about $1.90) per liter. As of August 31, the average price was around 16.5 somoni, compared with approximately 11 somoni in early June.
Dushanbe responded by increasing purchases from neighboring countries. In July, imports of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel from Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan roughly tripled to 34,000 tons. But average monthly imports of these fuels from all suppliers in the first half of the year were around 97,000 tons. Neighboring suppliers can cover part of the shortfall, but for now they cannot quickly replace Russian volumes.
In July, the presidents of Tajikistan and Kazakhstan discussed increasing supplies of Kazakh petroleum products to the Tajik market.
In August, Dushanbe also turned to Tehran. Tajikistan requested possible supplies of 2 million tons of crude oil, 300,000 tons of diesel, 150,000 tons of gasoline, and 100,000 tons of jet fuel, although no contractual details emerged.
The wider impact of strikes on Russian refining has also drawn attention in Washington. On September 13, U.S. President Donald Trump called on Volodymyr Zelensky to halt strikes on Russian oil refining, saying reduced supplies of Russian diesel were contributing to shortages on the global market.
“Don’t hit the diesel fuel. It’s hurting the whole world,” Trump said.
For Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, the consequences of the disruptions had already become apparent over the summer. The August surge does not signal sustained growth in Russian exports: between January and August, Russia supplied around 2.5 million tons of diesel to Central Asia and Afghanistan, compared with 2.6 million tons during the same period a year earlier.
On September 20, Gazprom Neft’s Moscow refinery halted crude processing after a drone attack caused fires at its two primary processing units. According to Reuters, repairs could take several weeks. In 2024, the refinery processed 11.6 million tons of crude and produced around 3.2 million tons of diesel.
Kyrgyzstan is expanding the geography of its fuel purchases and domestic refining, while Tajikistan is looking to neighboring countries and Iran for additional supplies. But August showed the limits of those alternatives. After the July slump, pressure on both markets has been eased primarily by the return of Russian diesel.
Backup supply routes have emerged. A source capable of replacing Russian fuel on a comparable scale has not.
