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Macroeconomic Review

EDB Forecasts Strong Economic Growth in 2026 for Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan

On December 18, the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) published its Macroeconomic Outlook for 2026-2028, reviewing recent economic developments and offering projections for its seven member states: Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. According to the report, aggregate GDP growth across the EDB region is forecast to reach 2.3% in 2026. Kyrgyzstan (9.3%), Tajikistan (8.1%), Uzbekistan (6.8%), and Kazakhstan (5.5%) are expected to remain the region’s fastest-growing economies. After two years of rapid expansion, the region’s GDP growth is set to moderate to 1.9% in 2025, down from 4.5% in 2024, mainly due to a slowdown in Russia’s economy. Although lower oil prices are expected to reduce export revenues for energy exporters such as Kazakhstan and Russia, the impact on overall growth will be limited. Meanwhile, net oil importers, including Armenia, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, will benefit from improved terms of trade and reduced inflationary pressure. High global gold prices will support foreign exchange earnings for key regional exporters, including Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. The report also notes a gradual decline in the U.S. dollar’s share in central bank reserves across the region, though its role in international settlements remains stable. Kazakhstan Kazakhstan’s economy is projected to grow by 5.5% in 2026, supported by the implementation of the National Infrastructure Plan and the state program “Order for Investment,” which are expected to cushion the effects of lower oil prices. Growth in non-commodity exports will also play a stabilizing role. Inflation is forecast to decline to 9.7% by the end of 2026, after peaking early in the year due to a value-added tax (VAT) increase. The average tenge exchange rate is expected to be KZT 535 per U.S. dollar, underpinned by a high base interest rate and rising export revenues. Kyrgyzstan Kyrgyzstan is forecast to lead the region in GDP growth at 9.3% in 2026, driven by higher investment in transport, energy, water infrastructure, and housing construction. Inflation is expected to ease to 8.3%, although further declines will be constrained by higher tariffs and excise taxes. The average exchange rate is projected at KGS 89.2 per U.S. dollar, supported by robust remittance inflows and high global gold prices, gold being the country’s main export commodity. Tajikistan Tajikistan is projected to maintain high GDP growth of 8.1% in 2026, fueled by capacity expansion in the energy and manufacturing sectors, along with rising prices for gold and non-ferrous metals. Inflation is expected to reach 4.5% by year-end. The somoni is expected to remain stable, with an average exchange rate of TJS 9.8 per U.S. dollar, supported by growth in exports and remittances. Uzbekistan Uzbekistan’s economy is forecast to expand by 6.8% in 2026, sustained by strong investment activity and favorable gold prices. Inflation is projected to decline to 6.7%, helped by tight monetary policy and a stable exchange rate. The average soum exchange rate is expected to be UZS 12,800 per U.S. dollar, supported by high remittances and increased metal exports.

Science

Astana Student’s Horse Milk Video Makes Finals of “Breakthrough” Science Contest

Another Kazakh scientist received an accolade this month, after 17-year-old Tomiris Abylkairova from Astana was voted into the final 16 of the prestigious international Breakthrough Junior Challenge. The Breakthrough contest, an initiative of the Breakthrough Challenge Foundation in the United States, is a global science competition for young people aged 13-18. Held for the last 11 years, students are invited to create videos of up to two minutes in length that explain a particular concept or theory in the area of life sciences, physics or mathematics. Abylkairova’s video has a Kazakh flavor, quite literally, as she uses her two minutes to discuss how fermented foods such as kymyz (horse’s milk) influence gene regulation. Her animated video was among the top 16 in a public vote, sending her to the finals after receiving a high number of “likes” on the event website. Collectively, the 30 submitted videos were viewed more than 300,000 times. Abylkairova, a student at Haileybury Astana School who also competes in national fencing championships, commented: “Representing Kazakhstan internationally is both an honor and a responsibility. For me it’s a chance to contribute to my country’s intellectual, scientific, and cultural legacy while engaging in meaningful global dialogue and research.” She added: “I’m proud to help demonstrate that young people from Kazakhstan can make impactful, long-term contributions to the global scientific community". Isabella Leonel Lelles, also 17, from Brazil, was the overall top scorer in the popular vote, with more than 66,000 likes for her video on the protein folding problem. The videos of the 16 finalists will now be reviewed by a Selection Committee of esteemed figures in American science. It has not yet been announce when the committee will select the overall winner. The winning entry will receive $400,000, with the victorious student being awarded $250,000 in educational prizes. Past Breakthrough Junior Challenge winners have come from Canada, India, Mauritius, Peru, the Philippines, Singapore, and the United States. Alumni have gone on to attend institutions including MIT, Harvard, Princeton, and Stanford. All videos, including Abylkairova's, can be viewed on the Breakthrough Junior Challenge’s website.

Oil and Gas

Kazakhstan Boosts Oil Output Despite Export Infrastructure Challenges

Kazakhstan increased its production of oil and gas condensate by 14% in January-November 2025 compared to the same period last year, and exceeded its annual export plan ahead of schedule, despite ongoing disruptions in the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC). The figures were announced by Deputy Minister of Energy Sungat Yessimkhanov. By the end of 2024, Kazakhstan had produced 87.7 million tons of oil and gas condensate, 97.1% of its target of 90.5 million tons. Total oil exports for the year reached 63.2 million tons. In the first 11 months of 2025, production rose to 91.9 million tons, marking a 14.1% year-on-year increase. The full-year target for 2025 is 96.2 million tons. Over the same period, exports amounted to 73.4 million tons, already surpassing the annual target of 70.5 million tons and representing a 16.1% increase from the previous year. This growth came despite serious challenges to Kazakhstan’s main export route. The CPC, which carries the bulk of Kazakh crude to international markets, experienced disruptions following a drone attack on its infrastructure. The incident raised fresh concerns about the vulnerability of critical export corridors. In the gas sector, Kazakhstan produced 62.8 billion cubic meters of natural gas in January-November 2025, a 16.7% increase from the same period in 2024. The annual gas production target for 2025 has already been met. Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) production rose to 2.8 million tons, up 1.8%. Gas transit volumes through Kazakhstan reached 64.5 billion cubic meters, up 0.9%. During the same period, domestic production of petroleum products reached 14 million tons. The full-year target is 14.5 million tons, on track to match the 2024 total, when 17.9 million tons of crude were processed domestically. Production of oil and gas chemical products increased by 12.2%, reaching 567,600 tons. The target for 2025 is set at 590,000 tons. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, Kazakh authorities are actively seeking foreign investment for the construction of a fourth major oil refinery with a projected capacity of up to 10 million tons per year. Overall, Astana plans to attract between $15 billion and $19 billion in investment for the development of the oil refining sector by 2040.

Politics

Kazakh MP Sarym Proposes Legal Measures Over Social Media Posts on Pipeline Strike

A Kazakhstani lawmaker has proposed criminal liability for social media posts that express support for attacks on the country’s energy infrastructure. During a recent session of the Mazhilis (lower house of parliament), MP Aidos Sarym called for posts endorsing Ukrainian military strikes on oil infrastructure to be examined under existing laws on terrorism and high treason. The proposal follows a November 29 incident in which Ukraine’s armed forces reportedly targeted the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) terminal in Novorossiysk, Russia. The attack damaged the CPC’s VPU-2 offshore loading terminal and temporarily halted operations. Addressing Prosecutor General Berik Asylov and Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Culture and Information Aida Balaeva, Sarym said the incident had sparked public commentary online that he believes exceeds the boundaries of protected speech. He called for investigations into such posts and suggested they may warrant legal action. “Such actions clearly go beyond the constitutional right to freedom of speech and directly harm national interests,” Sarym said, proposing that the government also launch an information campaign to discourage rhetoric supporting violence against critical infrastructure. The initiative coincides with broader debates in Kazakhstan over how to manage public discourse surrounding the war in Ukraine, amid concerns that expressions of support for either side could have diplomatic implications. Kazakhstan maintains relations with both Ukraine and Russia and has sought to preserve a neutral stance throughout the conflict. Sarym’s remarks were interpreted by some political analysts as a broader signal to members of parliament, following earlier comments by fellow deputy Yermurat Bapi. Bapi had previously characterized Ukrainian strikes on CPC facilities as part of a legitimate military strategy, a position that Sarym suggested could fall under legal review. Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov noted that approximately 80% of Kazakhstan’s oil exports transit through the CPC. While the pipeline includes Russian ownership, most shares belong to companies based in Kazakhstan, Europe, and the U.S., he said, countering claims that the CPC is solely a Russian asset. Kazakhstan is accelerating the repair of the VPU-2 terminal, now aiming for completion by January 2026. The Ministry of National Economy is currently assessing the economic impact of the disruption. Oil and gas analyst Olzhas Baidildinov estimated the production loss at 480,000 tons, equating to about $210 million in revenue over two weeks. He forecast monthly losses exceeding $400 million, including an estimated $150 million shortfall in budgetary revenue. Baidildinov expressed support for Sarym’s proposal, describing it as part of efforts to safeguard internal stability amid external geopolitical uncertainty. The proposal has not yet led to formal legislative action, and no prosecutions have been reported. Further discussion on the issue is expected as part of Kazakhstan’s broader approach to managing public discourse and national security in the context of the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

Caspian Pipeline Consortium

Kazakhstan Fast-Tracks Delivery of Caspian Pipeline Equipment

Kazakhstan has expedited the delivery of two new offshore berthing facilities for the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), a move prompted by recent drone attacks on CPC infrastructure. The initiative aims to restore the stability of oil exports and ensure uninterrupted operations at the key marine terminal in Novorossiysk. The two new remote mooring devices (RMDs) were procured from a manufacturer in the United Arab Emirates for installation at the CPC Marine Terminal. Kazakhstan’s Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov announced on December 15 in Astana that the delivery timeline has been moved up from April 2026 to January 2025. “The Ministry of Energy of the Republic of Kazakhstan and the national oil and gas company KazMunayGas are making every effort to deliver the two new RMD units. We are now pushing ahead with this and plan to deliver them in January,” said Akkenzhenov, highlighting the logistical complexity of transporting the technologically advanced equipment to Novorossiysk. According to the CPC press service, the two devices being replaced, CPC-1 and CPC-2, were originally commissioned in 2001. The contract for their replacement was signed in January 2024, and both new units are expected to be completed by December 2025. These upgrades are part of a recovery program following a series of attacks on CPC infrastructure. At the same time, repair work continues on VPU-3, another remote berthing facility. However, efforts have been hindered by severe weather conditions in Novorossiysk, where strong winds and currents have disrupted underwater installation work. “The weather in Novorossiysk is difficult, with very strong winds causing high waves and currents. Divers are descending under the dome to install underwater hoses,” Akkenzhenov explained. The Caspian Pipeline Consortium remains one of the largest energy projects in the post-Soviet space. The 1,511 kilometer Tengiz-Novorossiysk pipeline transports more than two-thirds of Kazakhstan’s oil exports, along with output from Russian fields, including those in the Caspian Sea. The CPC’s marine terminal in Novorossiysk is equipped with three remote mooring devices, enabling tankers to load safely offshore and ensuring continuous export operations. Since autumn 2025, CPC facilities have been repeatedly targeted. The first attack occurred on September 24, when drones struck the consortium’s office, injuring employees and bystanders. Other key incidents included attacks on the Kropotkinskaya base (February 17 and March 24), the Kavkazskaya facility (March 19), and the Novorossiysk marine terminal (September 24-25). The most serious incident occurred on November 29, when the terminal’s pier was damaged, rendering VPU-2 inoperable. Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Energy estimated losses of 480,000 tons of oil and condemned the attack as “unacceptable and dangerous for global energy security.” The emergency acquisition and fast-tracked delivery of the new berthing units are seen as a strategic investment by Kazakhstan, not only to secure its export capacity but also to reinforce the stability of one of the region’s most critical energy corridors.

Automobile Industry

Kazakhstan Sets New Record for Car Sales

Kazakhstan's car market set a new record in the first 11 months of 2025, with more than 207,500 new vehicles sold, surpassing the previous annual record of 205,000 units set in 2024. According to the Kazakhstan Automobile Union (KAS), 25,804 passenger and commercial vehicles were sold in November 2025 alone, marking a 22.7% year-on-year increase. This figure represents the highest monthly sales volume in the history of official car retail in the country. Between January and November 2025, dealerships sold a total of 207,616 new vehicles, 15.6% more than during the same period in 2024. KAS President Anar Makasheva noted that the market has already exceeded last year's total sales despite the traditionally active pre-New Year period still ahead. She added that dealers are expanding financial offerings and launching special promotions, as December is typically the most favorable month for car purchases. A further increase is expected by year-end. Hyundai was the top-selling brand in Kazakhstan during the reporting period, with 45,220 units sold. Chevrolet followed with 33,486, and Kia ranked third with 21,481. Chinese manufacturers dominated the rest of the top ten: Jetour (13,000), Chery (12,500), Haval (10,400), and Changan (10,100). Toyota came in eighth with 10,000 vehicles sold, followed by Geely (9,000) and Jac (8,700). Among the most popular models in November were the Chevrolet Cobalt (7,100), Hyundai Tucson (1,900), and Kia Sportage (1,300). As of December 1, 2025, Kazakhstan had 5,843,358 registered vehicles, according to government statistics. The majority, 4,898,203, were category B passenger cars. In comparison, 6,786,876 vehicles were registered as of September 1. The Ministry of Internal Affairs attributed the discrepancy of nearly 1 million vehicles to a database update that eliminated duplicates, corrected technical errors, and verified first-time registrations. Earlier this year, The Times of Central Asia reported that Kazakhstani car manufacturers saw a nearly 17% profit increase in the first half of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024.