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Coal Industry

Kazakhstan to Invest Over $15.5 Billion in Coal-Fired Power Generation

Kazakhstan is launching a large-scale investment programme in the energy sector. By 2030, the country plans to attract at least $15.5 billion for the development of coal-fired power generation. The corresponding national project has been approved by the government. According to government estimates, electricity demand in Kazakhstan will grow at an accelerated pace, partly due to the expansion of the IT sector, data centers, and AI. Under these conditions, the authorities are prioritising baseload generation, which renewable energy sources are not yet able to fully provide. The national project provides for the commissioning and modernisation of 7.8 GW of capacity. Key facilities include an energy cluster in Ekibastuz (2,640 MW), power plants in Kurchatov (700 MW) and Zhezkazgan (500 MW), as well as new combined heat and power plants in Kokshetau, Semey, and Ust-Kamenogorsk. Financing will come primarily from extra-budgetary sources through the attraction of private capital. The government expects the investments to generate a multiplier effect in the economy, including growth in mechanical engineering, energy equipment manufacturing, and automated systems. At the same time, 11 existing power plants are to be modernised. This is expected to reduce equipment wear by 12.6% and increase generation efficiency. Implementation of the project will also lead to an increase in thermal coal consumption of around 20 million tons per year. To ensure supply, additional investment is planned in transport infrastructure, including expanding the railcar fleet and modernising railway lines. Coal-fired generation is therefore set to become a driver not only for the energy sector but also for related industries. Despite the emphasis on coal, the authorities are counting on the introduction of “clean” generation technologies. New power plants will be equipped with modern emission-control systems, including electrostatic precipitators and desulphurization units. These measures are expected to reduce environmental impact and bring the industry closer to international standards. The project is expected to create about 4,500 permanent jobs, along with employee support measures such as subsidised mortgages. The launch of the project comes amid the global energy transition, creating a strategic dilemma. On the one hand, Kazakhstan aims to ensure energy security and sustain economic growth. On the other, pressure linked to the international climate agenda remains. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, the country plans to fully meet domestic electricity demand by 2027 and achieve a sustainable surplus by 2029, allowing it to begin exports. At the same time, new energy-intensive projects are under consideration, including the creation of a “data centre valley” in the Pavlodar region, which is also expected to rely on coal-fired generation.

Nauryz

How Kazakhstan’s Southern Cities Celebrated Nauryz

Across southern Kazakhstan, cities welcomed the arrival of spring with vibrant Nauryz celebrations that combined centuries-old traditions with modern cultural elements. Public squares, parks, and pedestrian areas were transformed into festive spaces filled with concerts, exhibitions, national games, and family activities. Almaty Kazakhstan's biggest city is one of the main venues for celebrating Nauryz. In 2026, the city marked the spring holiday on a particularly large scale, hosting more than 200 events across various locations. The main festivities unfolded in central squares, where concerts, exhibitions, craft fairs, and interactive cultural zones were organized. One distinctive feature of the celebrations was the concept of blending traditional rituals with modern technologies. Themed yurts were installed in public spaces, each dedicated to different aspects of Great Steppe culture, from musical heritage and archaeological reconstructions to contemporary ethno-design. [caption id="attachment_45770" align="aligncenter" width="2560"] Image: TCA[/caption] Pedestrian streets were decorated with light installations, LED displays, and interactive digital projects. In the evening, there were concerts by Kazakhstani performers and light shows. Residents attended the celebrations with their families, many wearing national costumes. Ethno-villages were also set up in several districts of Almaty, where sports competitions and children’s programs took place. Shymkent Nauryz was also celebrated on a large scale in Shymkent. Ethno-villages were organized throughout the city, allowing visitors to learn about Kazakh traditions, sample national dishes, and watch performances by local artists. A distinctive feature of the celebrations in Shymkent was the balanced combination of traditional festivities with modern cultural initiatives. Alongside folk performances, guests could explore digital exhibitions, interactive spaces, and educational programs dedicated to Kazakhstan’s history and heritage. [caption id="attachment_45769" align="aligncenter" width="2560"] Image: TCA[/caption] Concerts and theatrical performances featuring well-known national performers became a central part of the program, blending traditional motifs with modern stage production. Craft fairs, entertainment areas, playgrounds, and creative workshops were organized for children and families in the city’s main public spaces. Taraz In Taraz, Nauryz was celebrated with lively public festivities reflecting both tradition and contemporary creativity. Central squares were transformed into festive ethno-villages, with yurts installed, folk craft exhibitions arranged, and traditional dishes offered to guests. Residents and visitors watched theatrical performances dedicated to the history of the Kazakh people and the arrival of spring. Folklore groups, dance ensembles, musicians, and young performers took to the stage throughout the day. [caption id="attachment_45772" align="aligncenter" width="2560"] Image: TCA[/caption] The celebrations also incorporated modern elements. Visitors could see robots dressed in national costumes, an unusual symbol of the connection between cultural heritage and technological progress. Playgrounds, swings, and various entertainment activities were organized, while many residents took photographs against the backdrop of yurts, traditional decorations, and spring floral displays. The holiday concluded with a large open-air concert and mass public celebrations, reinforcing the sense of unity, joy, and renewal that accompanies Nauryz each year in Kazakhstan.

Bilateral Trade

Kazakhstan’s Trade with China Is Growing, but the Deficit Is Widening

Kazakhstan’s trade and economic ties with China continue to deepen, yet the expansion in bilateral trade is accompanied by a widening imbalance. By the end of 2025, China had consolidated its position as one of the country’s key trading partners, accounting for nearly a quarter of total foreign trade turnover. According to data from the analytical centre of the Association of Financiers of Kazakhstan (AFK), bilateral trade reached $34.1 billion, an increase of 13.2% compared with the previous year. China’s share in Kazakhstan’s foreign trade rose to 23.7% from 21.2% a year earlier. Growth in trade was driven primarily by an increase in imports of Chinese goods. In 2025, imports from China reached $18.9 billion, 23.6% higher than the previous year. China accounted for 29.2% of all imports into the country. The structure of imports indicates growth in shipments of both consumer goods and industrial products. The largest increases were recorded in vehicles (+$3.4 billion), metals (+$645 million), and chemical products (+$412 million). According to analysts, this reflects expanding investment activity, infrastructure projects, and domestic demand. In contrast to imports, Kazakhstan’s exports to China showed only moderate growth, rising by 2.1% to $15.2 billion. At the same time, the export structure changed. Shipments of agricultural and chemical products increased, while exports of traditional raw materials declined. Experts attribute this to cooling industrial demand in China, lower global commodity prices, and growth in domestic production within China itself. Faster growth in imports led to a sharp deterioration in the trade balance. According to AFK data, the bilateral trade deficit with China increased tenfold, from $370 million to $3.7 billion. At the same time, price trends for goods imported from China remained largely downward. Declining prices for a number of items are linked to low inflation in China and increased competition from Chinese manufacturers in foreign markets. This, in turn, is exerting a restraining effect on inflation in Kazakhstan, partially offsetting price increases driven by domestic factors such as tariffs, demand, and budget spending. In the short term, analysts expect imports from China to remain the main driver of bilateral trade. Kazakhstan’s exports, meanwhile, will depend on commodity prices and the level of industrial demand in China. High oil prices (above $100 per barrel) could temporarily reduce the deficit by boosting export revenues. However, this effect would be largely price-driven and is unlikely to change the overall structure of trade.

Transport

Prototype Driverless Taxi Unveiled in Astana

As part of the Nauryz celebrations in Astana, a demonstration run of a driverless vehicle developed at the Daulet Serikbayev East Kazakhstan Technical University (EKTU) was held. In the future, this prototype could become part of the city’s driverless taxi system. The presentation took the form of a public demonstration for residents and visitors to Kazakhstan’s capital. According to the Astana City Administration, the vehicle’s software and test route were developed by specialists from the Luban Workshop, which opened at EKTU in Ust-Kamenogorsk in late 2023 with support from China’s Tianjin Vocational Institute. The project is being implemented as part of an initiative to develop engineering competencies and introduce new technologies, ranging from alternative fuels to AI systems in the transport sector. At the same time, an agreement was signed to establish the Kazakhstan Engineering Center for the Application and Development of Intelligent Automotive Technologies. The demonstration run was organised by the Ministry of Artificial Intelligence and Digital Development in collaboration with the capital’s city administration and the IT company Astana Innovations. The test took place at one of the city’s festive venues. Visitors were able to observe the autonomous vehicle in real time and assess its potential for use in an urban environment. According to the organisers, the prototype demonstrated the potential for integrating AI technologies into Smart City systems, including navigation, data processing, and interaction with infrastructure. Authorities view driverless transport as one of the key areas in the development of urban mobility. In the future, such solutions may be integrated into Astana’s infrastructure, including the launch of autonomous taxis. It was previously reported that Kazakhstan plans to launch pilot projects for driverless taxis in the capital as early as 2026. At the same time, work is under way to prepare road infrastructure. Digital “passports” for highways are being developed, which are expected to enable the future use of driverless trucks.

TCA Interviews

How the Container Hub in Aktau Is Changing the Game on the Trans-Caspian Route

The Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR) is experiencing rapid growth. Against the backdrop of geopolitical shifts and the restructuring of global supply chains, it is increasingly seen as a reliable alternative to traditional maritime routes. The next major step in its development will be the launch in 2026 of Kazakhstan’s first container hub in the port city of Aktau. The project is expected to accelerate cargo handling, create a full container infrastructure, and strengthen the competitiveness of the route as a whole. But will it be enough to elevate the corridor to the level of the world’s key transport routes? The Times of Central Asia sat down to discuss these important regional developments with Damir Kozhakhmetov, CEO of KTZ Express, the transportation and logistics subsidiary of Kazakhstan Railways (KTZ). TCA: The launch of the container hub at the Port of Aktau is scheduled for 2026. What stage is the project currently at? Are there already forecasts for handling volumes? DK: Construction of the container hub is proceeding according to schedule. The first phase of the project has already been completed: on December 25, 2025, the facility entered pilot industrial operation. The design capacity of the first phase is 140,000 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) per year. As part of the project, a rail-track complex approximately three kilometers long has been built, a container yard covering 19,300 square meters has been created, and two modern rail-mounted gantry cranes with a lifting capacity of 41 tons each have been installed. The main loading and transport equipment has also been procured and commissioned. At the same time, supporting infrastructure has been developed, including roads, administrative and auxiliary buildings, engineering and utility networks, lighting systems, and perimeter security. Comprehensive testing of the process equipment is currently underway, and the terminal’s digital control systems are being configured. At the same time, the hub’s IT systems are being integrated with the digital infrastructure of the Port of Aktau to ensure operational transparency and reduce container processing times. Staff training and the refinement of production processes are also continuing during the trial-operation phase. Overall, the facility is steadily moving toward commercial operation, with commissioning work scheduled for completion by the end of March 2026. As for throughput, a phased ramp-up to design capacity is expected in 2026, with utilization increasing gradually. TCA: How will the launch of the container hub affect capacity utilization at Aktau itself? DK: We expect a significant synergistic effect. The project is primarily aimed at attracting additional container traffic, particularly within the TITR framework. This will allow for fuller and more efficient use of the port’s infrastructure. It is important to note that the development of port capacity is already aligned with projected cargo growth. Dredging work is underway in the port basin, while additional berths are being reconstructed and developed. Combined with the modernization of transshipment equipment, this creates the infrastructure reserve needed in advance. The container hub will operate in close cooperation with existing terminals, expanding the port’s logistics capabilities. This will...

Caspian Region

War Reaches the Caspian: Central Asia Faces Growing Regional Risk

The United States and Israel's war with Iran began on February 28, 2026. The intensity of the conflict has fluctuated, but daily reports of missile strikes and explosions are increasingly resonating across Central Asia. Meanwhile, Russia’s latest war against Ukraine has continued for 1,466 days since it began on February 24, 2022. Late last year, Ukrainian drones reportedly struck a Russian oil platform at the Filanovsky field in the Caspian Sea, more than 700 kilometers from Ukraine’s nearest border. Ukraine also said the operation targeted the patrol ship Okhotnik, although the extent of the damage was not independently verified. The war in Ukraine has also created serious challenges for Kazakhstan’s oil exports via the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC). Repeated attacks and disruptions have threatened export flows, increased logistical risks, and added pressure on Kazakhstan’s budget revenues. The war against Iran has now brought military action to the Caspian coast of Iran, raising concern for energy producers and transit routes across the wider region. On March 5, Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that drones launched from Iranian territory struck the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic. According to the ministry, one drone hit the terminal building at Nakhchivan International Airport, while another crashed near a school in the village of Shekerabad. Azerbaijan demanded a thorough investigation. Iran later stated that it had promised to investigate the incident. Azerbaijan’s Prosecutor General’s Office subsequently opened a criminal case. As of now, tensions remain high, with both sides continuing to exchange accusations, and Azerbaijan maintaining heightened alert measures. More recently, the Israeli Defense Forces confirmed carrying out airstrikes in northern Iran, targeting naval vessels in the port city of Bandar-Anzali on the Caspian coast. The straight-line distance from Bandar-Anzali to Azerbaijan’s capital, Baku, is just over 300 kilometers, and approximately 420 kilometers to Turkmenbashi, a major international seaport and the center of Turkmenistan’s oil-refining industry. The resort zone of Avaza is also located there. By comparison, the distance from Israel to Bandar-Anzali exceeds 1,300 kilometers. These developments are contributing to rising economic uncertainty across Central Asia. The consequences extend beyond transportation and logistics disruptions, with broader implications for regional economies. The U.S. and Israel have not always appeared aligned on what would constitute victory, meaning the measure of success remains difficult to gauge. While the United States and Israel have repeatedly stated that significant damage has been inflicted on Iran’s military infrastructure (including destroying a substantial part of the Iranian navy), there is no publicly available, independently verified evidence confirming the extent of the damage to Iran’s leadership structure following the death of Ali Khamenei, Ali Larijani and other senior Iranian figures, or on Iran’s ability to mount an effective defence. Analysts have described Iran’s military resilience as decentralized, sometimes using the term "mosaic defense," meaning units can continue operating under standing orders even when senior leadership is hit. It is understood that, as part of this strategy, the Iranian military has spent decades refining its ability to operate as independent nodes, each equipped to conduct strikes under...