Kazakhstan Home - The Times Of Central Asia

Viewing results 1 - 6 of 1280

Iran

Central Asia Updates from Mideast Conflict

Kazakhstan has expressed sorrow over the deaths of young students in what appeared to be an air strike that hit a girls’ primary school in the southern Iranian city of Minab. “I received the news of the death of 160 schoolgirls in Iran - with deep distress. The interruption of the lives of children, who must get education and step into the future on a peaceful day, is an irreplaceable tragedy for all humanity,” Education Minister Zhuldyz Suleimenova said on Facebook on Monday. “As a parent, I believe that children should never be victims of any kind of conflict, or political disputes,” Suleimenova said. “Their safety and well-being is one of the most important values for the international community and for every state.” Health officials and state media in Iran have reported a higher death toll of at least 175 in the destruction at the school on Saturday, saying most of the dead were probably children. The U.S. military said it was looking into reports of civilian casualties during its operations against the Iranian government. Some reports say the school that was hit is near an Iranian military installation, one of many targeted by U.S. and Israeli strikes since the military air campaign began on Saturday. Kyrgyzstan is working to help hundreds of its citizens who are stranded in Gulf countries because of the Mideast conflict. Diplomats are negotiating with hotels to make sure that Kyrgyz nationals are not evicted, Seitek Zhumakadyr uulu, head of the consular department of Kyrgyzstan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said on Monday. He said there are 800 stranded Kyrgyz citizens in Qatar and about 1,000 in the United Arab Emirates, according to Kyrgyzstan’s state news agency Kabar. Most Kyrgyz citizens in Saudi Arabia are performing Umrah, the Islamic pilgrimage to Mecca, the official said. Thousands of pilgrims have been affected by the air strikes on Iran and retaliation by Iranian forces. Airspace in many parts of the region is closed to commercial traffic and airlines have suspended flights. However, Ulukbek Maripov, Kyrgyzstan’s ambassador in Saudi Arabia, has said that airports there are operating relatively well. There are no reports of Kyrgyz civilian casualties in the conflict. Uzbekistan’s diplomats in Turkmenistan's capital Ashgabat are arranging assistance for Uzbek citizens who want to leave Iran and cross into neighboring Turkmenistan. “Embassy officials will meet citizens at the Turkmen-Iranian border crossing in the city of Sarakhs,” Uzbekistan’s state news agency Dunyo reported. “Official vehicles of the Embassy of Uzbekistan in Ashgabat have been mobilized to facilitate onward travel arrangements.” The Iranian city of Sarakhs is a key transit point for trade between Iran and Central Asia. The border between Iran and Turkmenistan is more than 1,000 kilometers. A Tajik citizen who was leaving Iran by crossing into Azerbaijan needed medical assistance at the border. “A female citizen of Tajikistan experienced health problems during the evacuation from Iran via the Azerbaijani border,” the Azerbaijani Press Agency reported. “She applied to a doctor present at the checkpoint. The Tajik citizen...

UNESCO World Heritage List

Two Architectural Monuments from Kazakhstan Included in UNESCO’s Tentative World Heritage List

Two landmark architectural monuments in Kazakhstan, the Zharkent Mosque and the Ascension Cathedral, have been added to UNESCO’s Tentative List of World Heritage Sites. The announcement was made by State Counselor of Kazakhstan Erlan Karin. Inclusion on the Tentative List is a mandatory preliminary step before a site can be formally nominated for inscription on the UNESCO World Heritage List. Only properties included in the Tentative List may proceed to the full nomination process. The Zharkent Mosque is located in the city of Zharkent in the Zhetysu region. Built in 1895 to the designs of Chinese architect Hong Pique, the structure was constructed without the use of nails. It represents a distinctive synthesis of Islamic architectural principles and East Asian design traditions, including elements commonly associated with Buddhist temples. This architectural fusion reflects the historical cultural exchanges among the peoples of the region and the cross-border influence of architectural schools. Since 1982, the mosque has been under state protection as a monument of architectural and historical significance at the national level. The Ascension Cathedral, situated in Almaty’s Park of the 28 Panfilov Guardsmen, was constructed between 1904 and 1907 as the cathedral of the Turkestan diocese of the Russian Orthodox Church. Rising to a height of 54 meters, it is considered one of the tallest wooden Orthodox churches in the world. Built from Tien Shan spruce, the cathedral’s wooden framework, reinforced with metal fastenings, allowed it to withstand several major earthquakes. Today, it is listed as a historical and cultural monument of Kazakhstan. According to Karin, the inclusion of both the mosque and the cathedral on the Tentative List marks an important step toward preserving and promoting the country’s cultural heritage. If the nomination process is successfully completed, the sites could obtain full World Heritage status, granting them enhanced international recognition and protection, as well as potentially increasing tourism. The joint nomination of Islamic and Orthodox religious monuments also underscores Kazakhstan’s cultural and religious diversity and reflects the historical coexistence of different faith traditions in the region. Previously, The Times of Central Asia reported that an updated UN Action Plan for the Protection of Religious Sites Worldwide was presented in Astana during the Congress of Leaders of World and Traditional Religions.

GDP Forecast

S&P Global Ratings Expects Kazakhstan’s GDP Growth to Slow in 2026

The international rating agency S&P Global Ratings has affirmed Kazakhstan’s long-term sovereign credit rating at BBB- and its short-term rating at A-3, while maintaining a positive outlook on the long-term rating. At the same time, S&P analysts expect economic growth to decelerate in 2026 and warn of persistently high inflation. According to commentary on S&P’s projections by analysts at the Halyk Finance research center, Kazakhstan’s GDP growth is forecast to slow to 4.1% in 2026. The projected slowdown is attributed to a 4% decline in oil production, weaker fiscal stimulus, and reduced consumer activity amid higher taxes and tighter credit conditions. In the medium term, for 2028-2029, S&P expects GDP growth to remain at around 4% or slightly higher. However, risks persist, particularly those related to geopolitical tensions and the continued sensitivity of Kazakhstan’s budget revenues and exports to fluctuations in global oil prices. For comparison, Kazakhstan’s GDP grew by 6.5% in 2025. In 2026, the government expects growth of 6.2%, a notably more optimistic projection than S&P’s estimate. Other international institutions have offered varying forecasts. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) recently upgraded its 2026 GDP growth forecast for Kazakhstan to 4.7%, up from 4.5%. In contrast, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in January lowered its 2026 growth forecast by 0.4 percentage points to 4.4%. Returning to S&P’s projections, the agency expects inflation to reach 11% by the end of 2026 and forecasts an exchange rate of 540 tenge per $1. Halyk Finance analysts stated that they broadly agree with S&P’s GDP and inflation forecasts. However, they consider the risks of further weakening of the national currency to be greater than the agency anticipates. According to their estimates, the exchange rate in 2026 could depreciate to 580-590 tenge per $1. S&P also expects the Kazakh government to continue fiscal consolidation in the medium term by expanding the tax base and tightening control over public spending, while preserving substantial liquid reserves. Over the next three years, the government does not plan to withdraw additional funds from the National Fund through targeted transfers or bond placements. The guaranteed annual transfer from the National Fund is set at $5.5 billion, half the $11.1 billion withdrawn in 2025. “We share S&P Global Ratings’ positive assessment, provided that the government strictly adheres to its fiscal consolidation commitments and reduces transfers from the National Fund,” Halyk Finance concluded. The Times of Central Asia previously reported that the IMF believes Kazakhstan’s current GDP growth rate exceeds the country’s long-term economic potential, thereby increasing inflationary pressures and signaling potential overheating of the economy.

Iran

Escalation with Iran at the Epicenter: How Central Asian Countries Are Reacting

Over the past weekend, the Middle East has once again become a focal point of global tensions. At the center of the escalation is Iran, a country with which Central Asian states intensified engagement last year following the visit of President Masoud Pezeshkian to the region. As events unfold, the potential regional and economic consequences have become a key concern for Central Asian leaders. Kazakhstan President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev responded swiftly on February 28, as Iran was reportedly preparing a retaliatory strike targeting not only Israel, which, together with the U.S., had assumed responsibility for the latest escalation, but also several Arab states in the Persian Gulf. On February 27, Tokayev received U.S. Ambassador to Kazakhstan Julie Stufft. According to the official readout, the sides exchanged views “on further cooperation within the framework of the Board of Peace.” While it remains unclear whether the meeting was directly linked to impending military developments, Kazakhstan’s leadership moved quickly the following day. On February 28, the president instructed Security Council Secretary Gizat Nurdauletov, together with the heads of law enforcement agencies and relevant ministries, to prepare an emergency action plan in light of the escalating situation around Iran and potential risks to domestic stability. All law enforcement agencies were placed on heightened alert, and a special monitoring group was established within the government under the supervision of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Regional governors were instructed to assess potential risks stemming from developments in the Middle East. Late on March 1, presidential press secretary Aibek Smadiyarov announced that Tokayev had sent personal messages to the leaders of the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait, expressing solidarity and support during what he described as a difficult period. Tokayev strongly condemned military actions that undermine the sovereignty and security of states friendly to Kazakhstan. “Our country consistently advocates resolving complex international problems and armed conflicts exclusively through diplomatic means,” Tokayev stated. He also expressed Kazakhstan’s readiness to provide assistance if necessary and reaffirmed the importance of maintaining working contacts with regional leaders. Subsequently, Tokayev held telephone conversations with Emir of Qatar Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani and President of the United Arab Emirates Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan. In both calls, Tokayev expressed serious concern over the escalation and reiterated Kazakhstan’s support and solidarity. During the conversation with the UAE president, Tokayev also noted reports that civilian infrastructure had been damaged and stated that attacks on civilian targets deserve strong condemnation. Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan thanked Kazakhstan for its support and expressed appreciation for its readiness to assist in overcoming the crisis. Uzbekistan Uzbekistan, alongside Kazakhstan, suspended flights to several Middle Eastern destinations, with some aircraft reportedly turning back after departure. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued emergency contact information for Uzbek diplomatic missions and urged citizens abroad or planning to travel, to closely monitor official updates from host countries and Uzbek embassies. The ministry advised citizens to maintain communication with diplomatic missions, register with consular services when necessary,...

Iran

Central Asian Countries Scramble to Help Nationals in Mideast Conflict Zone

With the Mideast conflict entering a second day, Central Asian governments have urged their citizens in the region to take precautions, including following the instructions of local authorities and staying away from mass gatherings. Five civilians from Tajikistan are among foreigners from a range of countries who have crossed from Iran into Azerbaijan since the United States and Israel launched air strikes at Iranian targets on Saturday, the Azerbaijani Press Agency reported. Others who have crossed include 18 Saudi diplomats, four diplomats from Jordan and hundreds of Russian civilians. Canada and Spain have communicated with Azerbaijan about the possible evacuation of their citizens as well. One citizen of Azerbaijan in the region has been injured, but is in good condition and receiving support from diplomatic staff, said Aykhan Hajizade, spokesman for Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs. He was quoted by state news agency Azertac. Uzbekistan said there are no casualties among its 81 citizens in Iran. The nationals from Uzbekistan include eight employees of diplomatic missions, nine students in the city of Qom, nine who are in Iran on private visits and 55 permanent residents. “The Embassy maintains constant contact with compatriots,” the Uzbek government said. Iran responded to the air strikes with retaliatory waves of missiles and drones aimed at Israel as well as U.S. military facilities and civilian areas across the region. “Air traffic has been suspended due to temporary restrictions on the use of airspace,” Uzbekistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a message on Telegram to its nationals in Dubai, United Arab Emirates. The ministry urged them to fully comply with local laws, avoid going out unnecessarily and stay away from crowded places, and rely only on official sources of information. Kazakhstan said it was working on “round-the-clock interaction” with authorities in countries affected by the conflict, and that its diplomatic missions are providing consular and legal assistance to compatriots. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs has opened hotlines. “Lists of citizens in the region, including transit zones, are being updated,” the ministry said. “Operational chats have been created in messengers where compatriots can get answers to their questions and information about the situation in the country, including recommendations.” The ministry said it was collecting information about the number of Kazakhstani citizens in the “escalation zone,” and that it was difficult to specify the exact number. There have been no reports so far of casualties among people from Kazakhstan, it said. Last year, Mashhad, a northeastern Iranian city near the border with Turkmenistan and a significant hub for trade with Central Asia, was among the targets hit by the Israeli military. At the time, Turkmenistan facilitated the cross-border transfer from Iran of some people from Central Asia and other regions. So far, there are no reports of U.S. or Israeli strikes on Mashhad since the latest conflict began. The city is an Islamic pilgrimage site and is the birth place of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader. He was killed in air strikes on Saturday.

Oil and Gas

Kashagan and Karachaganak: Will Kazakhstan’s Claims Lead to Changes in the Shareholder Structure?

The beginning of 2026 has been marked by a new round of confrontation between Kazakhstan and the international consortia developing the country’s largest oil and gas fields, North Caspian Operating Company N.V. (Kashagan) and Karachaganak Petroleum Operating B.V. (Karachaganak). Below is an overview of the current situation and the possible scenarios. Arbitration proceedings initiated in early 2023 have expanded from $16.5 billion to more than $170 billion. Over three years, Kazakhstan has secured preliminary victories on several claims, enough, in my view, to suggest that the era of foreign oil consortia dominating Kazakhstan’s strategic projects may be coming to an end. Ecology and NCOC Violations This week, Bloomberg reported in its article “Oil Majors Seek Arbitration Over $5 Billion Kazakh Sulfur Fine” that the NCOC consortium is filing in international arbitration to challenge a Kazakh court decision to collect 2.3 trillion tenge (KZT). The Bloomberg headline, however, presents the issue inaccurately. Environmental violations, including the excessive storage of approximately 1 million tons of sulfur, were identified during an inspection in March 2023, when the exchange rate stood at 451.71 KZT per $1. The rate later rose to 520-540 and currently stands at around 500 KZT per $1. According to investment forecasts, it may reach 600 KZT per $1 by the end of 2026. As a result, the dollar equivalent of the fine has decreased significantly. At the March 2023 rate, 2.3 trillion KZT amounted to approximately $5.1 billion. At 500 KZT per $1, it equals about $4.6 billion. At 600 KZT per $1, it would fall to roughly $3.8 billion, a difference of about $1.3 billion. After my earlier publications arguing that foreign consortia should be fined in foreign-currency equivalent at the exchange rate prevailing at the time of filing, the proposal was also raised in Parliament. Such an approach would be logical: the consortia export their oil and receive revenue in foreign currency, yet fines are imposed in tenge. After several rounds of appeals, the consortium lost what became the largest environmental dispute in Kazakhstan’s history, initially involving more than 20 systematic violations of environmental legislation. Correspondence between consortium members published in Western media indicated they were aware of the violations but considered remediation and compliance financially costly. NCOC’s annual revenue is approximately $10 billion. Media reports also stated that the consortium offered around $110 million, roughly 50 times less than the fine, for regional social programs in exchange for waiving environmental claims. Neither NCOC nor the Kazakh government confirmed such negotiations. In 2010-2011, similar environmental and tax claims against the Karachaganak consortium resulted in Kazakhstan receiving a 10% stake in the project. The current ownership structure of NCOC is: ENI (Italy) - 16.81% ExxonMobil (U.S.) - 16.81% CNPC (China) - 8.33% INPEX (Japan) - 7.56% TotalEnergies (France) - 16.81% Shell (UK) - 16.81% KazMunayGas (Kazakhstan) - 16.88% Total investment in Phase One of Kashagan is estimated at $60 billion. By analogy with Karachaganak, the environmental fine could hypothetically lead to an increase in Kazakhstan’s share by 5-7 percentage...