Tajikistan International Affairs - The Times Of Central Asia

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Jackson-Vanik Amendment

Jackson-Vanik Repeal Gains Momentum as U.S. Courts Central Asia

For many years, U.S. relations with Central Asia were primarily political in nature, while economic ties developed slowly. However, in the past year, engagement has intensified significantly, with recent agreements suggesting the U.S. is poised to strengthen its economic presence in the region. A recent statement by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio reinforces this outlook. Calls to repeal the outdated Jackson-Vanik trade restrictions have been framed by U.S. officials as a way to facilitate trade with Central Asia and strengthen U.S. energy security. The Jackson-Vanik Amendment The Jackson-Vanik Amendment, enacted in 1974, restricts trade with countries that limit their citizens’ right to emigrate. At the time of its passage, Central Asia was still part of the Soviet Union. The amendment prohibits granting most-favored-nation (MFN) status, government loans, and credit guarantees to countries that violate their citizens’ right to emigrate, and allows for discriminatory tariffs and fees on imports from non-market economies. The amendment was repealed for Ukraine in 2006, and for Russia and Moldova in 2012. However, it remains in effect for several countries, including Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, which continue to receive only temporary normal trade relations. In May 2023, a bill proposing the establishment of permanent trade relations with Kazakhstan, which included repealing the Jackson-Vanik Amendment, was introduced in the U.S. Congress. A follow-up bill with similar provisions was submitted in February 2025. Then-nominee and now Secretary of State Marco Rubio previously noted that some policymakers viewed the amendment as a tool to extract concessions on human rights or to push Central Asian states toward the U.S. and away from Russia. However, he characterized such thinking as outdated, stating that, “In some cases, it is an absurd relic of the past.” Rubio has consistently supported expanding U.S. ties with Central Asia. Expanding Cooperation In 2025, relations between the U.S. and Central Asia deepened significantly, particularly with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, which are seen by analysts as the primary beneficiaries of this cooperation. In late October 2025, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau and U.S. Special Representative for South and Central Asia Sergio Gor visited Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. One of the year’s major events was the Central Asia-U.S. (C5+1) summit held in Washington on November 6. Leaders of the five Central Asian states met with President Donald Trump and members of the U.S. business community. Uzbekistani President Shavkat Mirziyoyev also met with U.S. Senator Steve Daines, co-chair of the Senate Central Asia Caucus, with both sides focusing heavily on economic cooperation. At the summit, Uzbekistan finalized major commercial agreements with U.S. companies, including aircraft orders by Uzbekistan Airways and deals spanning aviation, energy, and industrial cooperation. Kazakhstan signed agreements worth $17 billion with U.S. companies in sectors including aviation, mineral resources, and digital technologies. This included a deal granting American company Cove Kaz Capital Group a 70% stake in a joint venture to develop one of Kazakhstan’s largest tungsten deposits, an agreement valued at $1.1 billion. Further agreements were signed on critical minerals exploration. Kazakhstan and the...

Healthcare

Japan Provides Grant for Digital Diagnostics in Dushanbe

The Japanese government is continuing to expand its humanitarian cooperation with Tajikistan, with a renewed focus on strengthening the healthcare system and improving public access to medical services. On January 27, a grant agreement totaling $352,530 was signed under Japan’s Grant Assistance for Grassroots Human Security Projects (GGP) program. The GGP initiative supports the development of social infrastructure in partner countries by funding projects in healthcare, education, and local government. In this case, the grant will be used to supply Health Center No. 14 in Dushanbe’s Sino district, one of the capital’s most densely populated areas, with state-of-the-art diagnostic technology. The center will receive three modern Japanese-made digital fluorographs, which are expected to significantly improve the accuracy and speed of diagnoses, particularly for infectious diseases. The integration of this technology is intended to enhance both the quality and accessibility of healthcare services in the district, contributing to the broader strengthening of Dushanbe’s healthcare infrastructure. Japanese Ambassador Keiko Furuta emphasized the strategic nature of Japan’s cooperation with Tajikistan, referencing the first Central Asia + Japan Dialogue Summit held in Tokyo last December. The summit reaffirmed healthcare as one of the priority areas of regional collaboration. Japan has provided assistance to Tajikistan for over 30 years, dating back to the establishment of diplomatic relations. Through the GGP alone, 470 humanitarian projects, totaling $39.2 million, have been implemented across the country since 1996. These projects have largely supported local governments, healthcare and educational institutions, and international NGOs.

Politics

Finland’s President Stubb Warns Russia’s Imperial Thinking Poses Risks for Central Asia

Russia’s imperial worldview may pose a greater long-term risk to Central Asia and the South Caucasus than to NATO member states, Finnish President Alexander Stubb said in an interview with The Washington Post, highlighting concerns that continue to resonate across the post-Soviet space. Speaking with columnist David Ignatius, Stubb referenced Finland’s long and complex history with its eastern neighbor, noting that expansionist thinking remains deeply rooted in Russian political culture. “I think the DNA of Russia is still expansion and imperialism,” he said, arguing that President Vladimir Putin views the collapse of the Soviet Union as a historical injustice. While much of the Western debate centers on potential threats to NATO countries such as the Baltic states, Finland, or Poland, Stubb suggested that more vulnerable regions lie elsewhere. “I think the more worrying aspect for others is the Central Asian countries, the Southern Caucasus and others,” he said, pointing to what he described as a top-down political system driven by the ideology of Russkiy mir, or the “Russian world.” Stubb also spoke about his personal interactions with Russian officials, including Putin and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, stressing that meaningful political dialogue remains unlikely while the war in Ukraine continues. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, Russian television host Vladimir Solovyov sparked backlash after suggesting that Moscow could conduct “special military operations” in Central Asia and Armenia. The remarks were widely condemned by Uzbek scholars, journalists, and analysts as destabilizing and provocative. More recently, Russian ultranationalist Alexander Dugin, often described as an ideologue of the “Russian world”, publicly questioned the sovereignty of several former Soviet republics, including Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan. A video of his comments circulated widely online, drawing sharp criticism across the region. Russia’s Foreign Ministry later sought to distance the Kremlin from such statements. Spokesperson Maria Zakharova stated that Solovyov’s remarks did not reflect official policy and reaffirmed that Moscow’s relationships with Central Asian countries are based on partnership and respect for sovereignty.

Afghanistan

Tajik Border Guards Kill 4 Gunmen From Afghanistan

Security forces in Tajikistan killed four armed men who crossed the border from Afghanistan, the Tajik government said. It was the latest clash in a rugged, sparsely populated area that has become a hotspot for violence along the frontier. Border guards in Tajikistan’s Shamsiddin Shohin district located the assailants after they entered the country early on Sunday, according to a border force statement that was reported by the state Khovar news agency. “The terrorists refused to obey the border guards' order to surrender and offered armed resistance,” the border force said. “All four terrorists were killed during the operation.” The statement said security forces seized equipment, including three Kalashnikov assault rifles, one pistol, ammunition, mobile phones, one walkie-talkie, and one boat. The vessel was likely used to cross the Pyanj River from Afghanistan into Tajikistan. Chinese gold mining operations in Tajikistan’s border area have become a target of deadly attacks, prompting China to urge Tajikistan to take robust measures to get the situation under control. On January 15, Yusuf Rahmon, secretary of Tajikistan’s Security Council, met Chinese ambassador Guo Zhijun to discuss regional stability.

Iran

From Tehran to Tashkent: How Iran’s Crisis and U.S. Tariffs Reverberate Across Central Asia

At the end of 2025, Iran once again emerged as a flashpoint on the global political map. Mass protests erupted across the country, fueled by spiraling inflation and economic hardship. At present, the Iranian rial has plummeted to the point where it is effectively worth less than the paper it's printed on. The current wave of unrest, already the largest and deadliest nationwide unrest Iran has seen since 2022, is not occurring in isolation. U.S. President Donald Trump has renewed what his administration describes as a policy of “maximum pressure” on Tehran, and his administration is now pursuing what observers have characterized as a strategy of “pushing the falling,” a move aimed at reshaping the political order of the Middle East. What might this mean for neighboring Central Asia? Tajik political analyst Muhammad Shamsuddinov argues the crisis must be viewed within a broader geopolitical context. “The situation in Iran is directly tied to Trump’s second-term pressure campaign,” Shamsuddinov said, referencing a string of destabilizing events. “These include the 12-day U.S.-Israel war against Iran and the reimposition of U.N. sanctions in September 2025," he added, referring to the 12-day June 2025 conflict between Israel and Iran, during which U.S. forces also struck Iranian nuclear facilities. "All of these have deepened the domestic crisis in Iran.” In a further escalation, on January 12, Trump announced 25% tariffs on countries conducting trade with Iran. The move appears targeted primarily at Russia, China, and India - Iran’s largest international partners, but also has implications for Central Asian economies. In the first nine months of 2025, trade between Kazakhstan and Iran grew by nearly 45%, reaching $310.8 million. Tajikistan, which maintains the closest economic ties to Tehran among Central Asian states, reported trade worth $430.7 million in the first eleven months of 2025, an increase of 28% over the same period in 2024. Uzbekistan, while less directly exposed to Iran than Kazakhstan or Tajikistan, has also moved cautiously in recent years to expand trade links with Tehran, making it sensitive to further sanctions pressure. Turkmenistan, meanwhile, faces its own exposure through gas swap arrangements involving Iran, which could become collateral damage of escalating regional tensions. Iranian investments in Tajikistan are also substantial. Among the most prominent projects is the Sangtuda-2 hydroelectric power plant, estimated at $256 million. The Iranian government contributed approximately $180 million, with an additional $36 million from an Iranian contractor. The remainder was financed by Tajikistan. According to official data, roughly 160 companies with Iranian capital are currently operating in Tajikistan across multiple sectors. In Kazakhstan, around 650 Iranian companies are registered, with over 350 operational, primarily in manufacturing, infrastructure, and agriculture. By contrast, trade between Iran and Russia, a strategic partner since the signing of a bilateral cooperation agreement in January 2025, increased by only 8% in the first nine months of 2025, according to official figures. Despite modest growth, Russian analysts view the figures optimistically. “Growth is happening under challenging geopolitical conditions, with sanctions, logistical restructuring, and financial hurdles,” said...

U.S. Visa Bond

U.S. Expands Visa Bond Policy for Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan

The United States has expanded a visa bond policy that increases the upfront cost of short-term travel for citizens of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and dozens of other countries. Under the policy, applicants for B-1 and B-2 business and tourism visas may be required to post bonds of $5,000, $10,000, or $15,000. The State Department set out the latest rules and the country list on its visa bond policy page. The program now covers nationals from 38 countries. In Central Asia, it was applied to Turkmenistan on January 1, and is scheduled to extend to Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan starting from January 21. The bond is refundable when travelers follow visa terms and leave on time, but it can tie up large sums for the duration of a trip and may put U.S. travel beyond reach for many applicants. Turkmenistan, where emigration is tightly controlled, sees low numbers of its citizens entering the United States. Department of Homeland Security data for Fiscal Year 2024 indicates that the total number of Turkmen nationals issued B-1/B-2 visas to the U.S. was 1,759. Tajikistan, meanwhile, saw 1,772 visas granted, and Kyrgyzstan 9,625. By way of comparison, Saudi Arabia saw over 54,000 visas granted. The expansion has already triggered public pushback in Kyrgyzstan. In a post on X on Thursday, Edil Baisalov, the deputy chairman of Kyrgyzstan’s Cabinet of Ministers and a prominent ally of President Sadyr Japarov, urged the Kyrgyz authorities to review visa-free access for U.S. citizens. Kyrgyzstan currently allows U.S. travelers to enter without a visa for stays of up to 30 days. “I believe that we should initiate a review of our visa-free regime for U.S. citizens following the new visa requirements announced yesterday by the State Department, under which Kyrgyz citizens are required to pay a visa deposit of up to $15,000 when submitting visa applications,” Baisalov wrote. “Visa policy is a matter of parity and mutual respect. If such high barriers are introduced for our citizens, we cannot pretend that nothing has happened.” Baisalov did not specify precisely what changes Kyrgyzstan might pursue, and any escalation risks provoking a dispute with a far stronger partner. The remarks also come as Kyrgyzstan and other Central Asian governments seek closer engagement with President Donald Trump’s administration while managing competing pressures from Russia and China. The measure is a setback for Kyrgyz efforts to ease travel barriers with the United States. Kyrgyz Foreign Minister Zheenbek Kulubaev raised visa issues with U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau during a meeting on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly in New York in September. So far, Tajikistan has not matched Kyrgyzstan’s public stance, with no prominent statement appearing on Tajik government channels addressing the bond requirement or signaling reciprocity. Discussion has instead focused on what the new U.S. rules mean for applicants, the implementation timeline, and the bond amounts that may be set at the interview stage. For Turkmenistan, the requirement adds another hurdle to an already narrow path to U.S. travel. The country’s...