Inside the EU’s New Power Play in Eurasia
Kaja Kallas’s late-March 2025 tour of Central Asia, in her role as the European Union’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, was a high-signal intervention in structural terms. It indicates a major re-evaluation of the EU’s posture toward a region historically treated as a far-flung, liminal borderland. As the inaugural EU–Central Asia Summit in Samarkand on April 3–4 approaches, her visible diplomatic activity was less about spectacle than about configuring a new field of co-adaptive engagement. Not only the European Union but also, separately, the United Kingdom are both seeking new regional footholds for building durable alignments. Central Asia, for decades considered through a lens of post-Soviet dependency or one of Chinese infrastructural absorption, is now increasingly recognized as a network node of emergent geopolitical agency. No longer just a space "between" other spaces, it is becoming a strategic space in its own right. Kallas’s mission and the UK’s parallel outreach signify a turn toward a negotiated interdependence that does not dissolve classical interest-based diplomacy but rather "complexifies" it by embedding it in a landscape of developmental trajectories and overlapping power centers. The arc of Kallas’s visit traced a deliberate sequence: Ashgabat, Tashkent, Almaty, Bishkek. In Ashgabat, she chaired the 20th EU–Central Asia Ministerial Meeting, a session nominally bureaucratic but substantively strategic. Discussions reaffirmed the 2023 EU–Central Asia Roadmap and activated the Global Gateway as an organizing frame for infrastructural, digital, and energy cooperation. Bilateral exchanges with officials in Turkmenistan brought the sensitive issue of sanctions circumvention into the open: Turkmenistan, though nominally neutral, remains enmeshed in logistics corridors proximate to Russian interest. From there, Kallas moved to Uzbekistan, where preparations for the April 3–4 Samarkand summit took clearer shape. Talks with President Shavkat Mirziyoyev and Foreign Minister Bakhtiyor Saidov in Tashkent widened the terrain of diplomatic discourse to include the energy transition, educational exchange, and regional transport integration. By hosting summits and fostering cooperation, Uzbekistan is seeking to establish for itself a profile as a key facilitator in Eurasian affairs. In Kazakhstan, her final significant stop, the meetings with President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and Foreign Minister Murat Nurtleu emphasized macroeconomic diversification and critical raw material supply chains. These are areas in which the EU is not merely a partner but a principal stakeholder. And yet, it is not only the EU that has begun this strategic deepening. The United Kingdom, post-Brexit and still actively reconfiguring its global engagements, has moved in parallel. April 2025 marked the first anniversary of the UK–Kazakhstan Strategic Partnership and Cooperation Agreement. Foreign Office Minister Stephen Doughty’s recent hosting of the Kazakhstan–UK Strategic Dialogue marked 33 years of formal relations. These diplomatic celebrations, beyond their performativity, represent the UK’s recognition that Kazakhstan, and Central Asia more broadly, is a region where its strategic, commercial, and normative interests intersect. In this broader convergence, Kazakhstan plays a central structural role of a balancing nature. It shares long borders with both Russia and China; it hosts a significant Russian-speaking population; and it has maintained a political posture...