Tajikistan International Affairs - The Times Of Central Asia

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Taliban

Taliban Dismiss Thousands of Tajik and Uzbek Fighters

The United Nations Security Council has released a new assessment on Afghanistan, revealing that the Taliban have reduced their security forces by approximately 20%. According to Afghanistan International, which cited the UN document, thousands of ethnic Tajik and Uzbek fighters have been dismissed, particularly in provinces where these groups made up a significant portion of Taliban ranks. The downsizing order reportedly came from Taliban leadership and was attributed to budgetary constraints. While the UN document does not explicitly state that the dismissals were ethnically motivated, it notes that the concentration of personnel cuts in Tajik and Uzbek-majority provinces, most notably Badakhshan, Kapisa, Parwan, and Takhar, has raised concerns about possible ethnic discrimination. Taliban officials have previously justified the reduction by claiming their security apparatus had become excessively large. However, the UN warned that the force reduction is occurring amid rising security threats, especially from Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP). According to the report, ISKP has ramped up operations by leveraging modern technologies, including artificial intelligence, to create training materials, some of which reportedly instruct on the assembly of improvised explosive devices. UN sanctions monitors cautioned that this technological advancement, combined with a diminished Taliban security presence, could heighten instability across the country. Although the Taliban have conducted operations against ISKP since early 2025, the extremist group remains resilient. The UN also highlighted that the Taliban continue to publicly deny ISKP’s presence in Afghanistan while simultaneously accusing neighboring countries of supporting the group. Despite this, the Taliban have sought international counterterrorism assistance to confront ISKP. The report estimates that more than 20 international and regional terrorist organizations remain active in Afghanistan. These include Al-Qaeda, Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, the Turkistan Islamic Movement, the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, and Jamaat Ansarullah. According to the UN, the Taliban have incorporated some former members of these groups into local security units, prompting concerns about ideological alignment and infiltration. The document further notes that advanced weaponry and military equipment are entering Afghanistan through cross-border smuggling and black market channels. Reports have also emerged of drone attacks targeting military sites in Pakistan. The Taliban are allegedly seeking technical support to expand their drone capabilities, with some countries reporting possible Al-Qaeda involvement in drone production sites in Logar and Kabul. Tensions also flared along the Tajik-Afghan border in late October. Armed clashes were reported on October 25 between Tajik border guards and Taliban fighters in the Davanga district of Shahr-e Buzurg, located in Badakhshan province. The confrontation reportedly stemmed from a dispute over water diversion from the Amu Darya river. The presence of Chinese-operated gold mining facilities in the area has further complicated the region’s security dynamics.

Central Asia + Japan

Japan Opens First Leaders-Level Summit With Central Asia

Japan hosted its first leaders-level summit with the five Central Asian republics on Friday, marking a diplomatic advance in a relationship that has existed for more than two decades but has rarely drawn wide attention. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi opened the “Central Asia + Japan” summit in Tokyo, with discussions set to continue through December 20. The summit elevates a dialogue that until now has been conducted mainly at foreign ministers’ or senior diplomatic levels. Japan launched the original “Central Asia + Japan” initiative in 2004 to build cooperation with the Central Asian states through economic, educational, and political channels. In a bilateral meeting linked to the summit, Japanese Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi met with his Tajik counterpart Sirojiddin Muhriddin, with the two sides agreeing on a cooperation program covering 2026–2028 and an investment treaty. These agreements represent the most concrete, publicly documented outcomes from the summit’s opening day and highlight Japan’s focus on strengthening bilateral ties alongside the broader multilateral dialogue. In parallel with the leaders’ meeting, Japan is hosting a “Central Asia + Japan” business forum organized by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry to promote trade and private-sector cooperation. The leaders’ summit follows high-level bilateral diplomacy earlier in the week. On December 18, Prime Minister Takaichi met Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev in Tokyo, where the two leaders signed a strategic partnership statement focused on energy, critical minerals, and expanded cooperation. Central Asia’s geopolitical significance has increased in recent years as its governments pursue multi-vector foreign policies aimed at broadening their external partnerships beyond traditional ties with Russia and China. Japan’s decision to elevate its dialogue with the region reflects this shift and Tokyo’s effort to remain an active partner amid growing engagement from the European Union, the United States, South Korea, and others. For Friday, the summit’s significance lies less in headline announcements than in its symbolism and early bilateral outcomes. The opening confirmed Japan’s intent to engage Central Asia at the highest political level, with broader commitments expected once the leaders conclude their talks and release a joint statement or action plan.

Central Asia + Japan

Japan Steps Out of the Shadows With First Central Asia Leaders’ Summit

On December 19-20, Tokyo will host a landmark summit poised to reshape Eurasian cooperation. For the first time in the 20-year history of the “Central Asia + Japan” format, the dialogue is being elevated to the level of heads of state. For Japan, this represents more than a diplomatic gesture; it signals a shift from what analysts often describe as cautious “silk diplomacy” to a more substantive political and economic partnership with a region increasingly central to global competition over resources and trade routes. The summit will be chaired by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. The leaders of all five Central Asian states, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, have confirmed their participation. Alongside the plenary session, bilateral meetings and a parallel business forum are scheduled to take place. Why Now? Established in 2004, the “Central Asia + Japan” format has largely functioned as a platform for foreign ministers and technical cooperation. According to Esbul Sartayev, assistant professor at the Center for Global Risks at Nagasaki University, raising the dialogue to the head-of-state level marks a deliberate step by Japan to abandon its traditionally “secondary” role in a region historically dominated by Russia and China. This shift comes amid a changing geopolitical context: disrupted global supply chains, intensifying competition for critical and rare earth resources, and a growing U.S. and EU presence in Central Asia. In this environment, Tokyo is promoting a coordinated approach to global order “based on the rule of law”, a neutral-sounding phrase with clear geopolitical resonance. Unlike other external actors in Central Asia, Japan has historically emphasized long-term development financing, technology transfer, and institutional capacity-building rather than security alliances or resource extraction. Japanese engagement has focused on infrastructure quality, human capital, and governance standards, allowing Tokyo to position itself as a complementary partner rather than a rival power in the region. Economy, Logistics, and AI The summit agenda encompasses a range of priorities: sustainable development, trade and investment expansion, infrastructure and logistics, and digital technology. Notably, the summit is expected to include a new framework for artificial intelligence cooperation aimed at strengthening economic security and supply chain development. It is also likely to reference expanded infrastructure cooperation, including transport routes linking Central Asia to Europe. As a resource-dependent country, Japan sees Central Asia as part of its evolving “resource and technological realism” strategy. For the Central Asian states, this presents a chance to integrate into new global value chains without being relegated to the role of raw material suppliers. Kazakhstan: Deals Worth Billions The summit coincides with Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s official visit to Japan from December 18-20. During the visit, more than 40 agreements totaling over $3.7 billion are expected to be signed. These span energy, renewables, digitalization, mining, and transport. Participants include Samruk-Kazyna, KEGOC, Kazatomprom, KTZ, and major Japanese corporations such as Marubeni, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Toshiba, and JOGMEC. Japan’s ambassador to Kazakhstan, Yasumasa Iijima, has referred to Kazakhstan as a future Eurasian transport and logistics hub, highlighting its strategic role in developing the Trans-Caspian...

B5+1

Bishkek to Host Second B5+1 Forum of Central Asia and the U.S.

Kyrgyzstan is preparing to host the second B5+1 Forum of Central Asia and the United States, scheduled for February 4-5, 2026, in Bishkek. On December 12, Kyrgyzstan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Ministry of Economy and Commerce held a joint briefing for ambassadors from Central Asian countries and the United States to outline preparations for the event. The B5+1 platform serves as the business counterpart to the C5+1 diplomatic initiative, which unites the five countries of Central Asia – Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan – with the United States. Launched by the Center for International Private Enterprise (CIPE) under its Improving the Business Environment in Central Asia (IBECA) program, B5+1 is supported by the U.S. Department of State and aims to foster high-level engagement between business leaders and policymakers. The upcoming forum in Bishkek builds on the outcomes of the C5+1 Summit held in Washington on November 6 this year. Its objective is to deepen U.S.-Central Asia economic cooperation and highlight the private sector’s pivotal role in advancing economic reform across the region. The event is co-hosted by CIPE and the Kyrgyz government. According to organizers, the forum’s agenda will focus on key sectors including agriculture, e-commerce, information technology, transport and logistics, tourism, banking, and critical minerals. These thematic areas reflect emerging regional priorities and shared interests in enhancing sustainable growth and economic resilience. The B5+1 Forum aims to create a platform for sustained dialogue between governments and private sector actors, encouraging the development of long-term partnerships and policy coordination. The inaugural B5+1 Forum was held in Almaty in March 2024, and brought together over 250 stakeholders from all five Central Asian countries and the United States. The first event centered on regional cooperation and connectivity, with a strong emphasis on empowering the private sector to support the objectives of the C5+1 Economic and Energy Corridors.

Visa

The Silk Visa Deadlock: The Long Road to a Borderless Central Asia

The year 2025 will likely be remembered as a milestone in Central Asian diplomacy. Regional leaders signed landmark agreements on water and energy cooperation and launched major investment projects. At high-level meetings, Central Asian presidents emphasized a new phase of deeper cooperation and greater unity, highlighting strategic partnership and shared development goals. But at ground level, at border crossings such as Korday between Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, or the congested diversion routes replacing the closed Zhibek Zholy checkpoint, the picture is far less seamless. Long queues, heightened scrutiny, and bureaucratic delays remain the norm. While political rhetoric celebrates unity, the reality on the ground tells a different story. The region’s physical borders remain tightly controlled. A key symbol of unrealized integration is the stalled “Silk Visa” project, a proposed Central Asian version of the Schengen visa that would allow tourists to travel freely across the region. The project has made little headway, with experts suggesting that, beyond technical issues, deeper concerns, including economic disparities and security sensitivities, have played a role. Silk Visa: A Stalled Vision Launched in 2018 by Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, the Silk Visa was envisioned as a game-changer for regional tourism and mobility. Under the scheme, tourists with a visa to one participating country could move freely across Central Asia, from Almaty to Samarkand and Bishkek. Seven years on, the project has yet to materialize. Official explanations point to the difficulty of integrating databases on “undesirable persons.” But as Uzbekistan’s Deputy Prime Minister acknowledged earlier this year, the delay stems from the need to harmonize security services and create a unified system. Experts also cite diverging visa policies and resistance from national security agencies unwilling to share sensitive data. As long as each country insists on determining independently whom to admit or blacklist, the Silk Visa will remain more aspiration than policy. Economic Imbalance: The Silent Barrier The most significant, albeit rarely acknowledged, hurdle to regional openness is economic inequality. Kazakhstan’s GDP per capita, at over $14,000, is significantly higher than that of Uzbekistan or Kyrgyzstan, which hover around $2,500-3,000. This disparity feeds fears in Astana that full border liberalization would trigger a wave of low-skilled labor migration, putting strain on Kazakhstan’s urban infrastructure and labor market. While Kazakhstan is eager to export goods, services, and capital across Central Asia, it remains reluctant to import unemployment or social tension. Migration pressure is already high: according to Uzbekistan’s Migration Agency, the number of Uzbek workers in Kazakhstan reached 322,700 in early 2025. Removing border controls entirely could exacerbate this trend, overwhelming already stretched public services. Security Concerns and Regional Tensions The geopolitical landscape further complicates the dream of borderless travel. A truly open regional system would require a strong, unified external border, something unattainable given Afghanistan’s proximity. The persistent threats of drug trafficking and extremist infiltration compel Uzbekistan and Tajikistan to maintain tight border controls. Kazakhstan, while geographically removed, remains cautious about loosening controls along its southern frontier. Moreover, despite recent agreements on delimiting the Kyrgyz–Tajik border, tensions in...

Afghanistan

Reuters News Agency Pulls Report on Tajik-Russian Talks on Guarding Afghan Border

The Reuters news agency has withdrawn a story, denied by Tajikistan, that Tajikistan was negotiating with Russia about joint patrols along its troubled border with Afghanistan. The removal of the news story comes as China urges Tajikistan to upgrade security along the border, where security officials say five Chinese workers were killed in two separate attacks launched into Tajikistan from Afghanistan last week. Tajik President Emomali Rahmon met senior security officials in his government this week to discuss border security. “A Reuters story about Tajikistan holding talks with Russia about helping guard its Afghan border has been withdrawn following a post-publication review showing insufficient evidence. There will be no substitute story,” Reuters said in a statement from Almaty, Kazakhstan. Tajikistan has previously said it seeks to collaborate with the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a regional group in which Russia is the most powerful member, on efforts to conter threats along its border with Afghanistan. As far back as 2013, the organization said it was planning to provide “military-technical assistance” to Tajikistan’s border of nearly 1,400 kilometers with Afghanistan. But Tajikistan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs denied the Reuters report about “alleged discussions between Tajikistan and the Collective Security Treaty Organization regarding the involvement of Russian military personnel” in joint patrols along the Tajik-Afghan border. “The Ministry emphasizes that this publication is untrue and that the dissemination of such false information misleads the international audience,” the ministry said on Wednesday. Tajikistan is “constantly” taking steps to strengthen the border with Afghanistan and that the situation there “remains stable and is under the full control of the competent authorities” in the country, according to the foreign ministry. Even so, Chinese media reported that the Chinese embassy in Tajikistan has urged its nationals to urgently leave the border area. The ruling Taliban in Afghanistan condemned the border attacks and pledged to collaborate in efforts to find those responsible. Mohammad Naeem, the deputy foreign minister, told Zhao Xing, China’s top diplomat in Afghanistan, during a meeting in Kabul that investigations were underway, the Afghan government said Wednesday.