Tajikistan International Affairs - The Times Of Central Asia

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Central Asia + Japan

Japan Steps Out of the Shadows With First Central Asia Leaders’ Summit

On December 19-20, Tokyo will host a landmark summit poised to reshape Eurasian cooperation. For the first time in the 20-year history of the “Central Asia + Japan” format, the dialogue is being elevated to the level of heads of state. For Japan, this represents more than a diplomatic gesture; it signals a shift from what analysts often describe as cautious “silk diplomacy” to a more substantive political and economic partnership with a region increasingly central to global competition over resources and trade routes. The summit will be chaired by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. The leaders of all five Central Asian states, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, have confirmed their participation. Alongside the plenary session, bilateral meetings and a parallel business forum are scheduled to take place. Why Now? Established in 2004, the “Central Asia + Japan” format has largely functioned as a platform for foreign ministers and technical cooperation. According to Esbul Sartayev, assistant professor at the Center for Global Risks at Nagasaki University, raising the dialogue to the head-of-state level marks a deliberate step by Japan to abandon its traditionally “secondary” role in a region historically dominated by Russia and China. This shift comes amid a changing geopolitical context: disrupted global supply chains, intensifying competition for critical and rare earth resources, and a growing U.S. and EU presence in Central Asia. In this environment, Tokyo is promoting a coordinated approach to global order “based on the rule of law”, a neutral-sounding phrase with clear geopolitical resonance. Unlike other external actors in Central Asia, Japan has historically emphasized long-term development financing, technology transfer, and institutional capacity-building rather than security alliances or resource extraction. Japanese engagement has focused on infrastructure quality, human capital, and governance standards, allowing Tokyo to position itself as a complementary partner rather than a rival power in the region. Economy, Logistics, and AI The summit agenda encompasses a range of priorities: sustainable development, trade and investment expansion, infrastructure and logistics, and digital technology. Notably, the summit is expected to include a new framework for artificial intelligence cooperation aimed at strengthening economic security and supply chain development. It is also likely to reference expanded infrastructure cooperation, including transport routes linking Central Asia to Europe. As a resource-dependent country, Japan sees Central Asia as part of its evolving “resource and technological realism” strategy. For the Central Asian states, this presents a chance to integrate into new global value chains without being relegated to the role of raw material suppliers. Kazakhstan: Deals Worth Billions The summit coincides with Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s official visit to Japan from December 18-20. During the visit, more than 40 agreements totaling over $3.7 billion are expected to be signed. These span energy, renewables, digitalization, mining, and transport. Participants include Samruk-Kazyna, KEGOC, Kazatomprom, KTZ, and major Japanese corporations such as Marubeni, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Toshiba, and JOGMEC. Japan’s ambassador to Kazakhstan, Yasumasa Iijima, has referred to Kazakhstan as a future Eurasian transport and logistics hub, highlighting its strategic role in developing the Trans-Caspian...

B5+1

Bishkek to Host Second B5+1 Forum of Central Asia and the U.S.

Kyrgyzstan is preparing to host the second B5+1 Forum of Central Asia and the United States, scheduled for February 4-5, 2026, in Bishkek. On December 12, Kyrgyzstan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Ministry of Economy and Commerce held a joint briefing for ambassadors from Central Asian countries and the United States to outline preparations for the event. The B5+1 platform serves as the business counterpart to the C5+1 diplomatic initiative, which unites the five countries of Central Asia – Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan – with the United States. Launched by the Center for International Private Enterprise (CIPE) under its Improving the Business Environment in Central Asia (IBECA) program, B5+1 is supported by the U.S. Department of State and aims to foster high-level engagement between business leaders and policymakers. The upcoming forum in Bishkek builds on the outcomes of the C5+1 Summit held in Washington on November 6 this year. Its objective is to deepen U.S.-Central Asia economic cooperation and highlight the private sector’s pivotal role in advancing economic reform across the region. The event is co-hosted by CIPE and the Kyrgyz government. According to organizers, the forum’s agenda will focus on key sectors including agriculture, e-commerce, information technology, transport and logistics, tourism, banking, and critical minerals. These thematic areas reflect emerging regional priorities and shared interests in enhancing sustainable growth and economic resilience. The B5+1 Forum aims to create a platform for sustained dialogue between governments and private sector actors, encouraging the development of long-term partnerships and policy coordination. The inaugural B5+1 Forum was held in Almaty in March 2024, and brought together over 250 stakeholders from all five Central Asian countries and the United States. The first event centered on regional cooperation and connectivity, with a strong emphasis on empowering the private sector to support the objectives of the C5+1 Economic and Energy Corridors.

Visa

The Silk Visa Deadlock: The Long Road to a Borderless Central Asia

The year 2025 will likely be remembered as a milestone in Central Asian diplomacy. Regional leaders signed landmark agreements on water and energy cooperation and launched major investment projects. At high-level meetings, Central Asian presidents emphasized a new phase of deeper cooperation and greater unity, highlighting strategic partnership and shared development goals. But at ground level, at border crossings such as Korday between Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, or the congested diversion routes replacing the closed Zhibek Zholy checkpoint, the picture is far less seamless. Long queues, heightened scrutiny, and bureaucratic delays remain the norm. While political rhetoric celebrates unity, the reality on the ground tells a different story. The region’s physical borders remain tightly controlled. A key symbol of unrealized integration is the stalled “Silk Visa” project, a proposed Central Asian version of the Schengen visa that would allow tourists to travel freely across the region. The project has made little headway, with experts suggesting that, beyond technical issues, deeper concerns, including economic disparities and security sensitivities, have played a role. Silk Visa: A Stalled Vision Launched in 2018 by Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, the Silk Visa was envisioned as a game-changer for regional tourism and mobility. Under the scheme, tourists with a visa to one participating country could move freely across Central Asia, from Almaty to Samarkand and Bishkek. Seven years on, the project has yet to materialize. Official explanations point to the difficulty of integrating databases on “undesirable persons.” But as Uzbekistan’s Deputy Prime Minister acknowledged earlier this year, the delay stems from the need to harmonize security services and create a unified system. Experts also cite diverging visa policies and resistance from national security agencies unwilling to share sensitive data. As long as each country insists on determining independently whom to admit or blacklist, the Silk Visa will remain more aspiration than policy. Economic Imbalance: The Silent Barrier The most significant, albeit rarely acknowledged, hurdle to regional openness is economic inequality. Kazakhstan’s GDP per capita, at over $14,000, is significantly higher than that of Uzbekistan or Kyrgyzstan, which hover around $2,500-3,000. This disparity feeds fears in Astana that full border liberalization would trigger a wave of low-skilled labor migration, putting strain on Kazakhstan’s urban infrastructure and labor market. While Kazakhstan is eager to export goods, services, and capital across Central Asia, it remains reluctant to import unemployment or social tension. Migration pressure is already high: according to Uzbekistan’s Migration Agency, the number of Uzbek workers in Kazakhstan reached 322,700 in early 2025. Removing border controls entirely could exacerbate this trend, overwhelming already stretched public services. Security Concerns and Regional Tensions The geopolitical landscape further complicates the dream of borderless travel. A truly open regional system would require a strong, unified external border, something unattainable given Afghanistan’s proximity. The persistent threats of drug trafficking and extremist infiltration compel Uzbekistan and Tajikistan to maintain tight border controls. Kazakhstan, while geographically removed, remains cautious about loosening controls along its southern frontier. Moreover, despite recent agreements on delimiting the Kyrgyz–Tajik border, tensions in...

Afghanistan

Reuters News Agency Pulls Report on Tajik-Russian Talks on Guarding Afghan Border

The Reuters news agency has withdrawn a story, denied by Tajikistan, that Tajikistan was negotiating with Russia about joint patrols along its troubled border with Afghanistan. The removal of the news story comes as China urges Tajikistan to upgrade security along the border, where security officials say five Chinese workers were killed in two separate attacks launched into Tajikistan from Afghanistan last week. Tajik President Emomali Rahmon met senior security officials in his government this week to discuss border security. “A Reuters story about Tajikistan holding talks with Russia about helping guard its Afghan border has been withdrawn following a post-publication review showing insufficient evidence. There will be no substitute story,” Reuters said in a statement from Almaty, Kazakhstan. Tajikistan has previously said it seeks to collaborate with the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a regional group in which Russia is the most powerful member, on efforts to conter threats along its border with Afghanistan. As far back as 2013, the organization said it was planning to provide “military-technical assistance” to Tajikistan’s border of nearly 1,400 kilometers with Afghanistan. But Tajikistan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs denied the Reuters report about “alleged discussions between Tajikistan and the Collective Security Treaty Organization regarding the involvement of Russian military personnel” in joint patrols along the Tajik-Afghan border. “The Ministry emphasizes that this publication is untrue and that the dissemination of such false information misleads the international audience,” the ministry said on Wednesday. Tajikistan is “constantly” taking steps to strengthen the border with Afghanistan and that the situation there “remains stable and is under the full control of the competent authorities” in the country, according to the foreign ministry. Even so, Chinese media reported that the Chinese embassy in Tajikistan has urged its nationals to urgently leave the border area. The ruling Taliban in Afghanistan condemned the border attacks and pledged to collaborate in efforts to find those responsible. Mohammad Naeem, the deputy foreign minister, told Zhao Xing, China’s top diplomat in Afghanistan, during a meeting in Kabul that investigations were underway, the Afghan government said Wednesday.

Tajik-Afghan Border

Tajikistan Reports New Militant Attack from Afghanistan; Chinese Citizens Killed

A deadly cross-border attack has once again drawn attention to the volatile security situation along the Tajik-Afghan border. Armed militants opened fire on foreign workers in Tajikistan, prompting sharp condemnation from Dushanbe and renewed calls for Kabul to enhance control over its border regions. According to the press center of Tajikistan’s State Committee for National Security (GKNB), the latest incident occurred on November 30 at approximately 6:45 p.m. near the village of Shodak, located in the rural village of Vishkharv, Darvaz district. The gunfire reportedly came from the Afghan village of Ruzvayak, in the Mohi Mai district of Badakhshan province. Militants targeted employees of the China Road and Bridge Corporation, a Chinese state-owned construction company. Two Chinese nationals were killed in the attack, and two others were wounded. This was not an isolated incident. On November 26, militants launched a similar cross-border assault in the Shamshiddin Shohin district, resulting in the deaths of three Chinese employees of the Shokhin-SM company and injuring another. Both attacks originated from Afghanistan’s Badakhshan province, raising serious concerns among Tajik authorities about what appears to be a growing pattern of cross-border violence. Despite ongoing efforts to enhance security, Dushanbe acknowledged continued attempts by armed criminal groups to destabilize the situation. “The Tajik side, expressing deep concern, strongly condemns these alarming actions by criminal groups and calls on the current authorities of Afghanistan to take timely and effective measures,” read a statement from the Border Troops press center. The GKNB stated that additional measures are being implemented to strengthen border protection and ensure the safety of both Tajik citizens and foreign workers. Authorities also reported that the situation remains “stable and under control,” and that investigations are underway. In a separate statement, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Tajikistan condemned the attacks as “brutal actions by terrorist groups” and urged the Afghan authorities to guarantee the security of border areas. Official reactions followed from Kabul, Islamabad, and Tehran. Representatives of the Taliban (designated as a terrorist organization and banned in several countries) extended condolences to both Tajikistan and China. They asserted that the attacks were carried out by factions seeking to “create tension and mistrust between countries in the region,” and expressed willingness to cooperate in the investigation and information exchange. On December 1, President Emomali Rahmon convened an emergency meeting with the heads of Tajikistan’s law enforcement and security agencies. According to the presidential press service, Rahmon “strongly condemned the illegal and provocative actions of Afghan citizens,” called for tougher preventive measures, and instructed security forces to reinforce surveillance and control along the entire border zone.

Trans-Afghan Railway

Icy Relations Between Pakistan and Afghanistan Threaten Central Asian Trade Plans

On November 25, the Afghan authorities accused Pakistan of a new round of airstrikes in eastern Afghanistan. The bombing killed nine children and a woman, injuring several others. The attacks are the latest escalation in rapidly worsening tensions between Islamabad and the Taliban-led government in Kabul, with key border crossings currently closed, and Afghan refugees being expelled from Pakistan. At the heart of the crisis is Pakistan’s claim that Kabul is providing support to the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (Pakistani Taliban, or TPP), a militant group seeking to topple Pakistan’s government and impose its strict interpretation of Islamic law. The fallout may ripple beyond bilateral relations, with significant consequences for Central Asian trade, particularly the Pakistan-Afghanistan-Uzbekistan plan for a Trans-Afghan railway. The planned 647-kilometer line is set to connect the northern Afghan city of Mazar-e-Sharif with Peshawar in Pakistan. When combined with existing infrastructure, this will mean that trains can travel from southern Uzbekistan all the way to the Pakistani ports of Gwadar and Karachi, granting landlocked Uzbekistan and Afghanistan a long-sought gateway to the Indian Ocean. But mounting instability, along with Islamabad’s willingness to shut borders as leverage, may now place the project in serious jeopardy. “The moment a state weaponizes geography, every financier in Tashkent, Moscow, or Beijing prices in risk, delays commitments, and quietly explores alternative alignments,” Anant Mishra, Marie Skłodowska-Curie Research Fellow at the International Centre for Policing and Security at the University of South Wales, told The Times of Central Asia. So, what are the prospects for salvaging the Trans-Afghan railway? How can Pakistan and Afghanistan de-escalate? And what does this turmoil mean for Central Asia’s wider economic ambitions? A sudden frost On July 17, Uzbekistan’s Transport Minister Ilkhom Makhkamov, Pakistan’s Railway Minister Muhammad Hanif Abbasi, and Afghanistan’s acting Public Works Minister Mohammad Esa Thani signed an agreement to conduct a feasibility study for the proposed railway. Many hoped the railway would presage a new era of fraternal relations between Central and South Asia. “Civil society, the intelligentsia, media, and business community of Pakistan have been loudly calling for intimate trade relations with the Central Asian Republics,” Khadim Hussain, Research Director at the Centre for Regional Policy and Dialogue (CRPD), Islamabad, told TCA. For Uzbekistan, which has aggressively pursued diversification of trade routes to reduce reliance on transit through Iran and Kazakhstan, the project promised a cheaper, faster corridor to global markets. According to Nargiza Umarova, Head of the Center for Strategic Connectivity at the Institute for Advanced International Studies, University of World Economy and Diplomacy in Tashkent, the trans-Afghan is one of two high-priority transport projects, along with the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway – work on which began in April 2025. But the ink had barely dried on the July accord when tensions between Afghanistan’s Taliban government and Islamabad began escalating, throwing the ambitious railway into doubt. [caption id="attachment_40211" align="aligncenter" width="1600"] Uzbek passenger and freight trains parked in Andijan; image: TCA, Joe Luc Barnes[/caption] In early October, Pakistan launched an airstrike in Kabul targeting the leader of the...