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Central Asia Leads in Repatriating Citizens from Syrian Camps

Central Asian governments are at the forefront of efforts to repatriate their citizens from camps in northeastern Syria, according to Khalid Koser, head of the Global Community Engagement and Resilience Fund (GCERF). In an interview with RIA Novosti, Koser highlighted that, unlike European nations, Central Asian states have taken responsibility for their nationals. GCERF is an international organization supporting local initiatives to prevent extremism and violence by fostering partnerships between governments, civil society, and the private sector. Koser noted that approximately 2,200 Central Asian citizens have been repatriated from these camps. Kazakhstan has brought back 754 individuals, Kyrgyzstan 533, Tajikistan 381, and Uzbekistan 531. By contrast, Koser criticized European nations for neglecting their citizens in the camps. “Tajikistan says, ‘These are our citizens, and we are responsible for them,’” Koser stated. “Meanwhile, Western Europe hopes the problem will disappear, leaving people to die in camps.” The head of GCERF also pointed out the challenges of repatriating men, many of whom were combatants. “The question now is how to handle those who fought, were involved in terrorism, and face difficulties reintegrating. Most will end up in prison, which could lead to further radicalization within the prison system,” Koser warned. The camps in northeastern Syria, managed by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and the United States, house 65,000 to 70,000 people. Most of the residents are women and children from families of ISIS militants. While the camps are not officially prisons, movement is restricted, and Kurdish forces prevent residents from leaving. The Times of Central Asia has previously reviewed the repatriation operations undertaken by Central Asian countries, which continue to set a global example in addressing this humanitarian and security challenge.

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Rivers Without Boundaries Coalition Criticizes Rogun HPP Plans

Rivers Without Boundaries, an international environmental organization, has released a detailed report analyzing alternative strategies for completing the Rogun Hydroelectric Power Plant (HPP) in Tajikistan. This report has been submitted for review to the World Bank Board of Directors. The report highlights the importance of exploring alternative energy development options in Tajikistan before committing to the $6.4 billion Rogun HPP project. The coalition advocates for solutions that minimize environmental and social risks while maximizing long-term benefits for the region. Environmentalists caution that even if the World Bank approves the construction of the world's tallest dam, standing at 335 meters, many of Tajikistan's pressing challenges will remain unresolved. Persistent electricity shortages, for example, are projected to continue until at least 2036, despite the project’s completion. Additionally, the project poses significant threats to the UNESCO-listed Tigrovaya Balka Nature Reserve and the endangered shovelnose sturgeon in the Vakhsh River. Agricultural disruption is another major concern, as over seven million people across Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Afghanistan risk losing access to vital water resources for farming. The coalition proposes an alternative approach that combines a smaller Rogun HPP with the development of solar power plants. By reducing the dam’s height by 70 meters, the plan could substantially lower economic, social, and environmental risks. This modified strategy offers several benefits, including reducing the number of displaced residents from 40,000 to roughly 13,000. Moreover, integrating solar energy into the energy mix could enable Tajikistan to meet its winter electricity demands by 2030–31 while enhancing resilience to climate change. Diversifying the energy sector would also mitigate long-term economic vulnerabilities. Previously, Rivers Without Boundaries published a report titled “Rogun Hydroelectric Power Plant Project: Non-Compliance Report with World Bank Requirements,” which detailed how the Rogun HPP project violates the World Bank’s environmental and social standards in six critical areas: environmental assessment, biodiversity protection, resource efficiency, dam safety, public participation, and forced displacement. The coalition calls on the World Bank and Tajik authorities to consider alternative solutions that align energy development with environmental sustainability and social responsibility, ensuring a balanced and equitable approach to the region’s energy needs.

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Afghan Migration Committee Urges Tajikistan to Halt Refugee Deportations

Mosawer Bahadori, head of Afghanistan’s Migration Committee (Aryana) in Tajikistan, has raised concern over the deportation of Afghan migrants from Tajikistan, urging the authorities to safeguard refugee rights and adhere to international obligations. Concerns Over Deportations In a recent statement, Bahadori expressed condolences to the Afghan families affected by the deportations and emphasized the committee’s commitment to supporting Afghan migrants. He noted that the deportation process, ongoing for over a week, has caused widespread concern among the refugee population. Advocacy for Refugee Rights The Afghan Migration Committee, which has operated in Tajikistan for more than 27 years, serves as an intermediary between Afghan refugees and local authorities. Functioning under the legislative framework of Tajikistan’s Ministry of Justice, the committee addresses migrant concerns and facilitates dialogue with state institutions. Bahadori urged Tajikistan to honor its international obligations, particularly by acceding to United Nations conventions that prohibit deporting refugees to countries where they face threats to their lives. Many Afghan refugees in Tajikistan fled Taliban persecution and have been granted asylum or refugee status. Proposals for Alternative Solutions Bahadori proposed alternative approaches to deportation, including: Negotiating with international organizations or third countries to facilitate the transfer of Afghan refugees. Simplifying the relocation process to make resettlement more accessible. Introducing fines or imprisonment as penalties for offenses, rather than deporting individuals to unsafe conditions. The Afghan Migration Committee also assured Tajik authorities that Afghan refugees would continue to respect local laws and customs. The committee pledged to cooperate with Tajik security forces to address repeated illegal activities by individuals through lawful measures. Call for Diplomatic Solutions Bahadori concluded his statement by advocating diplomatic solutions to protect vulnerable Afghan migrants while maintaining strong relations between Afghanistan and Tajikistan. He emphasized the need for collaborative efforts to uphold human rights and ensure the safety of refugees.

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West Monitors Syria for Plans of Jihadis, Some From Central Asia

Some counterterrorism experts in the West are assessing whether the ouster of Bashar Assad´s regime in Syria will lead to a recalibration of the Islamic militant groups that opposed him, some of which include especially hardline recruits from Central Asia. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the Syrian group that led an offensive into Aleppo and Damascus and forced Assad to flee in a span of two weeks, is trying to turn to governance with a relatively moderate image even though it was associated with Al-Qaeda earlier in the Syrian civil war and is labeled a terrorist organization on some Western lists. It’s too early to say whether HTS leader Abu Mohammed al-Golani will stick to a message of tolerance or can make it work in a fractured country with gutted institutions, but there are signs that some jihadis object to his message of inclusiveness. “Many of them are Central Asians and they may look to go somewhere else. I think we’re inevitably going to see a certain amount of splintering from what happens in Syria,” said Colin Clarke, a terrorism researcher and author of After the Caliphate. At an Atlantic Council event in Washington on Wednesday, Clarke said there is an “interplay” between religious extremism in Afghanistan and Syria, and that a number of groups with Central Asian members have those connections. Clarke said he will be watching to see whether the connections grow following Assad’s abrupt exit after more than two decades in power. Some estimates put the number of Islamic militants who have traveled from Central Asia to Syria and Iraq over the years at around several thousand, though the figures vary and are difficult to confirm. Many joined the Islamic State group, which was defeated in Iraq and is much diminished in Syria although the U.S. recently carried out air strikes to prevent any resurgence by the group amid Syria’s current upheaval. One jihadist group with Central Asia links that collaborated with HTS in the successful campaign against Assad is Katibat al Tawhid wal Jihad, designated a terror group by the U.S. State Department in 2022. The group carried out a Saint Petersburg, Russia metro attack in 2017 that killed 14 passengers and injured 50 others, as well as a suicide car bombing of the Chinese embassy in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan in 2016 that injured three people, according to the U.S. Katibat al Tawhid wal Jihad is comprised mainly of Uzbek, Tajik and Kyrgyz combatants, according to Daniele Garofalo Monitoring, which traces jihadist propaganda and military activity. There are an estimated 400-500 fighters in the group. Another HTS ally is Katibat Mujaheddin Ghuroba Division, which has between 200 and 400 fighters, according to the Garofalo site. Many are Uzbeks, Tajiks and Uyghurs, though the group also has Arab militants. There is also Jaysh al-Muhajireen wal-Ansar, which dates to the early stages of the Syrian civil war that began in 2011. The jihadist group is believed to have 400-500 fighters, mostly Chechens, Tajiks, Dagestanis, Azerbaijanis, Kazakhs and Ukrainians, as well as...

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Central Asia Braces for Return of Radical Islamists Amid Syrian Turmoil

According to experts, the recent collapse of President Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria raises concerns about potential destabilization in Central Asia. This development may force regional governments to repatriate citizens who were lured by Islamist propaganda, while the future of the Astana format negotiations on Syria remains uncertain. The swift coup d'état in Syria saw opposition forces capture Damascus and much of the country within days. Bashar al-Assad fled to Moscow, leaving a chaotic landscape dominated by the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, often described as a successor to ISIS and Al-Qaeda. The situation has plunged Syria into further instability. The Impact of Operation Zhusan Kazakhstan has firsthand experience dealing with the repercussions of Syria's instability. Between 2013 and 2017, hundreds of Kazakh citizens succumbed to Islamist propaganda, crossing borders illegally to join the conflict, often with their families. In response to the humanitarian crisis, Kazakhstan launched Operation Zhusan ("Wormwood") in January 2019 to repatriate citizens trapped in Syria. The operation, conducted in five stages and completed by February 2021, repatriated 607 citizens, 37 men, 157 women and 413 children (34 of whom were orphans). The government set up a rehabilitation center near Aktau on the Caspian Sea to provide treatment, restore documents, and offer vocational training for adults and education for children. All 37 repatriated men were detained and later convicted of terrorism-related activities, receiving sentences ranging between 6 and 14 years, whilst 18 women faced prosecution. Despite the operation’s success, many in Kazakhstan fear the returnees and their children might spread radical ideologies within the country. Lessons from the Region Other Central Asian countries have also grappled with the challenge of repatriating citizens from Syria. Bakhtiyor Babadjanov, an expert from the Institute for Strategic and Regional Studies under Uzbekistan’s president, detailed the experiences of Uzbek women lured to conflict zones. These women often found themselves deceived and abandoned in dire conditions, as described in an interview. "The 'happy caliphate' turned out to be a myth," Babadjanov explained, recounting stories of women and children abandoned without food or shelter during battles in Mosul. Survivors reported forced marriages, child abuse, and exploitation under the guise of religious duty. The Uncertain Future of the Astana Process Another significant connection between Central Asia and Syria has been the Astana process, a series of negotiations aimed at resolving the Syrian conflict. Since 2017, Kazakhstan has hosted 22 rounds of talks, including discussions on hostages, missing persons, and settlement efforts. However, the recent escalation in Syria casts doubt on the process. In late November and early December, armed opposition groups launched a large-scale offensive, capturing key cities, including Aleppo and Damascus. Despite this upheaval, Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov insisted the Astana process remains relevant as a platform for dialogue and consultation, notwithstanding the fact that Assad is now in Moscow. Heightened Risks of Destabilization Experts in Kazakhstan and Central Asia have warned that the fall of Assad's regime could lead to prolonged anarchy, ethnic and religious conflicts, and a refugee crisis. Political scientist,...

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Central Asia Prioritizes Food Security Amid Shared Challenges

Food security remains a top priority for Central Asian nations, yet they face shared challenges that threaten regional stability. Deteriorating water resources, climate change, reliance on external food markets, and geopolitical pressures have intensified the need for regional cooperation in addressing these issues. Bilateral and Regional Efforts Talks between the presidents of Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, Shavkat Mirziyoyev and Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, on August 8 underscored the importance of collaboration. The two leaders witnessed the signing of an agricultural cooperation agreement between their respective ministries. This followed Tokayev’s November 2022 visit to Tashkent, which was particularly productive in advancing food security. Agreements included joint production of mineral fertilizers and a bilateral cooperation program worth $1.3 billion aimed at boosting mutual trade and developing agricultural projects. Trade within Central Asia has grown significantly, with Uzbekistan’s trade volume with its neighbors nearly doubling between 2017 and 2019. Kazakhstan, the region’s leading grain supplier, plays a central role: • Uzbekistan accounts for 60% of Kazakhstan’s grain exports. • Tajikistan consumes 18%. • Kyrgyzstan takes 14%. • Turkmenistan absorbs 6%. Despite this growth, experts highlight the untapped potential for expanding trade and cooperation in agriculture. Common Challenges Food security challenges are compounded by shared threats, including demographic growth and dwindling water resources. The region’s population has reached 75.5 million, while irrigated land per capita has decreased by more than 25% over the past 15 years. Water availability in the Syr Darya and Amu Darya river basins—crucial for irrigating 10 million hectares - faces a projected 15% decline. This is exacerbated by the alarming retreat of glaciers that feed these rivers, jeopardizing long-term agricultural sustainability. The Need for Regional Solutions While each Central Asian country primarily relies on its resources to address food security, the interconnected nature of these challenges calls for a collective approach. Enhanced regional cooperation is essential to develop resilient agricultural systems, manage water resources effectively, and ensure sustainable growth in food production.