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Harnessing Diplomacy: Qosh Tepa Canal as a Bridge to U.S. Influence in Central Asia

The Center for the National Interest, a Washington, D.C.-based think tank, has released a report titled Afghanistan’s Qosh Tepa Canal and Water Security in Central Asia. The report outlines how U.S. support for the Qosh Tepa Canal project could provide an opportunity for the incoming Trump administration to strengthen its influence in the region. Project Overview Currently under construction in northern Afghanistan, the Qosh Tepa Canal aims to divert water from the Amu Darya River to support agriculture and economic growth. The canal will stretch 287 kilometers, with a depth of 8.5 meters and an average width of 100 meters. Once completed, it will irrigate more than 1.2 million acres of farmland and generate approximately 200,000 jobs in northern Afghanistan. While the Taliban has championed the project as a cornerstone of Afghanistan’s development, the canal poses significant challenges for downstream countries reliant on the Amu Darya, particularly Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. Concerns include potential water scarcity, environmental degradation, and heightened regional tensions. Implications for Central Asia The report highlights that the canal could exacerbate existing disputes over water allocation in a region already plagued by scarcity. Unlike its Central Asian neighbors, Afghanistan is excluded from water-sharing agreements rooted in the Soviet era. The poorly designed Soviet canals along the Amu Darya continue to undermine water security in the region decades after their construction, a fate experts hope to avoid with Qosh Tepa. Recommendations for U.S. Engagement The report urges the United States to seize this opportunity to engage Afghanistan and the broader region diplomatically and technically: 1. Support for a Well-Engineered Canal The United States should advocate for a well designed canal that prioritizes water-use efficiency. By offering technical assistance and backing the project in principle, the U.S. could pave the way for multilateral development banks, such as the World Bank, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, and the Asian Development Bank, to provide financial and technical support. 2. Promote Regional Water Diplomacy Washington should encourage negotiations for a regional water-sharing agreement among Afghanistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 3. Assist Downstream States Additional investments in modernizing irrigation systems in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan could mitigate the canal's impact on downstream water availability. Strategic Context The report underscores the geostrategic importance of Afghanistan and Central Asia, which border three of Washington’s primary global competitors: China, Russia, and Iran. By supporting the Qosh Tepa Canal project and fostering regional water-sharing cooperation, the U.S. could counterbalance the growing influence of Beijing, Moscow, and Tehran in the region. A Watershed Moment As construction progresses into its second phase, involving thousands of workers and heavy machinery, the Qosh Tepa Canal stands at the nexus of development and diplomacy. The report concludes that U.S. involvement in this critical project could serve not only to address Central Asia’s pressing water security challenges but also to reinforce Washington’s strategic position in one of the world’s most complex geopolitical arenas.

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A Final Deal Along Central Asia’s Deadliest Border

It took some 33 years, but on December 4, Kyrgyz and Tajik officials reached a final agreement on delimitation of the last sections of their 972-kilometer border. It is a relief for the entire Central Asian region. In those 33 years the five Central Asian countries (including Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan) have been independent, the only open conflicts between the armed forces of two Central Asian countries happened between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. In the southern Kyrgyz city of Batken on December 4, Kyrgyz security chief Kamchybek Tashiyev and Tajik counterpart Saimumin Yatimov announced an agreement that Tajik state news agency Khovar said “fully completed the delimitation of the remaining sections of the Tajik-Kyrgyz state border.” Most of the Kyrgyz-Tajik border runs through the Pamir Mountains. The eastern part, approximately two-thirds of the common frontier, passes through remote and sparsely inhabited areas. Agreement on where the dividing line between the two countries was easy to reach in this section. The remaining one-third of the border in the west proved far more difficult to find compromises. [caption id="attachment_26293" align="aligncenter" width="2256"] Road near the Kyrgyz village of Ak-Sai. On one side of the road is Tajikistan, the other side, Kyrgyzstan; image: Bruce Pannier[/caption] Kyrgyz and Tajiks are two of the oldest peoples in Central Asia. Their ancestors lived in what is now the border area many hundreds of years before there were any borders. The Soviet Union changed that when it created the Kyrgyz and Tajik Soviet Socialist Republics, not only drawing lines on a map, which were redrawn more than once, but also including enclaves on either side of the border. Roads in the area zigzagged back and forth, one minute through Kyrgyzstan, and few minutes later through Tajikistan, over and over again. As border tensions began to appear toward the end of the 2000-2010 period, both countries started building roads to avoid crossing into the neighboring state, but the terrain is rugged, limiting possibilities for alternate routes. Also, new road construction is expensive and Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are both poor countries. [caption id="attachment_26294" align="aligncenter" width="2256"] The entrance to Tajikistan's Vorukh enclave; image: Bruce Pannier[/caption] The lone road leading from Batken to the Kyrgyz village of Ak-Sai and the Tajik enclave of Vorukh weaves through both countries several times and in some places, the road is the border. Visible from any village in this area are the snow-capped mountains, but down in the valleys, water has always been a problem. Like the roads, small rivers and canals meander across both sides of the border, and unsurprisingly, water use is a major source of tensions and has been a significant obstacle in deciding where the border should be. The first hints of trouble came after 2000 and involved petty vandalism, usually children throwing rocks at passing vehicles with license plates from the neighboring country. This escalated and after 2010, when incidents of physical altercations between members of border communities started, followed by vandalism targeting homes and businesses in border villages. Since much of...

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Kyrgyz, Tajik Delegations Finalize Border Deal After Long Dispute

Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan have fully agreed on the demarcation of their border, Kyrgyz officials said Wednesday, in a major step toward ending the conflict between the two Central Asian countries that spilled into violence as recently as 2022. Delegations from the two nations “reached agreements and fully completed the description of the remaining sections of the Kyrgyz-Tajik state border,” Kyrgyzstan’s state-run Kabar news agency reported. It cited the press service of the Cabinet of Ministers of Kyrgyzstan. The delegation chiefs of the two sides ordered working groups to finalize documents on the border agreement, Kabar said. It published photos of the meeting in the Kyrgyz town of Batken, including an image of the delegation chiefs in military uniform and shaking hands with each other. The Kyrgyz-Tajik border is nearly 1,000 kilometers long and the agreement followed months of negotiations over various stretches of the mountainous territory. In 2014, the border between the two countries was closed to Kyrgyz and Tajik citizens following clashes over a bypass road in disputed territory; mortars were fired and both armies suffered casualties. Violence broke out again in 2021 and 2022, resulting in more casualties and the evacuation of more than 100,000 civilians.

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Amid Sanctions, China’s Xinjiang Strengthens Ties with Central Asia

China’s Xinjiang region is deepening its engagement with Pakistan and Central Asia as part of efforts to counter Western sanctions and bolster its role in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). On November 26, officials from Xinjiang met with their counterparts from Kazakhstan’s Zhetysu region for the first meeting under a new cross-border coordination mechanism. The discussions focused on cross-border tourism, infrastructure, market regulation, quarantine measures, and joint crime prevention. The meeting culminated in the signing of a memorandum on cross-border tourism. The discussions took place near the port of Khorgos, a critical hub for the China Railway Express, which connects China with Europe. Khorgos is home to China’s first cross-border cooperation center, where residents of neighboring countries can engage in business and shop visa-free. The center allows duty-free purchases of up to 8,000 yuan ($1,104) per day. Xinjiang Governor Erkin Tunyoz stressed the importance of strengthening ties with Zhetysu in areas such as trade, tourism, security, and agriculture. This cooperation is becoming increasingly crucial for Beijing as Xinjiang grapples with sanctions from the United States and other Western countries over alleged human rights abuses—a claim that China denies. Sanctions include the U.S. Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act, which prohibits imports from Xinjiang suspected of being produced using forced labor. Similar measures have been implemented by Canada, the United Kingdom, and the European Union. In addition to its collaboration with Kazakhstan, China has established a dialogue mechanism with the five Central Asian countries—Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. Since 2020, foreign ministers from these nations have met annually to discuss logistics, trade, investment, agriculture, mining, and security. Li Lifan, a Central Asia scholar at the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, described Xinjiang as a “bridgehead” for the BRI. He highlighted the region’s rich natural resources and its role as a base for major industries, including automobile manufacturing. In 2023, trade between Xinjiang and Central Asian countries surged by 50%, reaching 283 billion yuan ($39 billion). Despite these successes, Li cautioned about future challenges. He noted uncertainties surrounding potential Western secondary sanctions, geopolitical tensions, and Russia's ongoing war in Ukraine. Additionally, U.S.-China relations remain fraught, with further unpredictability anticipated under the leadership of Donald Trump. “Full economic development may only be achievable once global tensions ease,” he said.

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CSTO Leaders Tackle Regional Security, Nuclear Energy, and Afghan Border Concerns

Astana hosted a summit of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), gathering heads of member states to discuss pressing regional and international issues. Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev chaired the session of the CSTO Collective Security Council. Attendees included Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov, Russian President Vladimir Putin, Tajik President Emomali Rahmon, and CSTO Secretary-General Imangali Tasmagambetov. In his address, President Tokayev highlighted the CSTO’s pivotal role in maintaining peace and stability in Eurasia. “Amid modern challenges, the CSTO consistently demonstrates its relevance as a guarantor of security for all member states. Our coordinated actions, mutual trust, and support strengthen our collective ability to tackle complex and large-scale tasks. The CSTO is not merely a military partnership but a unique mechanism that unites our efforts and resources to safeguard sovereignty and territorial integrity,” Tokayev stated. CSTO’s Response to Kazakhstan’s 2022 Crisis Tokayev reflected on the CSTO’s rapid deployment in January 2022, when Kazakhstan faced unrest over rising gas prices, which escalated into violent confrontations. Within 24 hours, CSTO forces were deployed to stabilize the situation. Russian troops secured strategic facilities in Almaty, while Kazakh forces restored order, marking a critical demonstration of the organization’s operational capability. Putin Unveils "Oreshnik" Missile System Russian President Vladimir Putin addressed ongoing tensions with Ukraine, signaling the potential use of the Oreshnik medium-range ballistic missile system in response to Western-supplied long-range missiles targeting Russian territory. According to Putin, the Oreshnik has the destructive power of nuclear weapons, and can penetrate heavily fortified targets. “The temperature of the striking elements reaches 4,000 degrees. At the explosion's epicenter, everything is reduced to elementary particles, essentially turning to dust,” he explained. Putin also announced that serial production of the missile had begun, with several units ready for deployment. Kazakhstan’s Nuclear Power Project Discussions also turned to Kazakhstan’s plans to build its first nuclear power plant. Tokayev has proposed an international consortium, and Putin expressed Russia's willingness to participate through Rosatom, emphasizing its extensive experience with international collaborations. “Rosatom is ready to work with specialists from other countries,” Putin remarked, leaving the door open for multilateral cooperation. Armenia’s Absence and CSTO’s Future Noticeably absent from the summit was Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, following Armenia’s decision to freeze its CSTO membership earlier this year. Yerevan cited concerns over its sovereignty as the reason for the suspension. Secretary-General Tasmagambetov remained optimistic about Armenia’s return, calling it a valued ally. “This is the decision of an independent and sovereign state, which no country or organization can influence. Nevertheless, we view Armenia as an ally and hope it will return to full participation in the CSTO in the foreseeable future,” Tasmagambetov stated. Key Summit Outcomes During the session, the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) also reflected on Kazakhstan's presidency in 2024, highlighting significant milestones achieved under its leadership. President Tokayev reported that approximately 60 activities were conducted within the CSTO's statutory areas of cooperation during Kazakhstan’s presidency. This included advancing coordinated approaches to key international issues in collaboration with member...

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Tajikistan’s External Debt Reaches $3.25 Billion

As of October 1, Tajikistan’s external debt stood at $3.25 billion, according to a report by Asia-Plus citing the Ministry of Finance. This represents a modest 0.2% increase, or $7.1 million, compared to January 1. Approximately 96% of the debt comprises direct government debt, incurred to meet state obligations, while $138.8 million is under state guarantees. Tajikistan’s external debt-to-GDP ratio is 27%, which is considered a favorable level. The largest creditors include the World Bank ($370 million), the Asian Development Bank ($260 million), the Islamic Development Bank ($212 million), and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development ($167 million). A significant portion of the debt, $500 million, consists of Eurobonds issued in 2017 to finance the completion of the Rogun Hydroelectric Power Plant. While the government adheres to the repayment schedule for these bonds, only interest payments have been made so far. Next year, Tajikistan is expected to seek additional loans from development partners to continue work on the Rogun Hydroelectric Power Plant. This move is anticipated to substantially increase the country’s external debt. By way of comparison, The Times of Central Asia recently reported that neighboring Uzbekistan’s public debt is projected to reach $45.1 billion by the end of 2025.