Turkmenistan Environment - The Times Of Central Asia

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Water Crisis

Russia Revives Plan to Redirect Siberian Rivers as Central Asia Faces Worsening Water Crisis

The long-contested idea of diverting Siberian rivers to Central Asia has re-emerged after the Russian Academy of Sciences announced on November 14 that it is studying a new version of the project. The updated proposal revives elements of a Soviet-era plan from the 1970s and 1980s that aimed to channel water from the Ob River basin to arid regions of Central Asia. This time, however, the focus is on a closed pipeline system, rather than open canals, to transport large volumes of water to countries facing acute shortages, particularly Uzbekistan, according to Fergana News. Discussions within the Russian Academy had reportedly already begun prior to the announcement. Researchers are now calling on Russia’s Ministry of Science and Higher Education to include a full study of the project in its state research plan. They argue that Central Asia is entering a critical phase of water scarcity that demands long-term strategic solutions. The renewed interest comes amid escalating water stress across the region. Rapid population growth, retreating glaciers, and intensifying irrigation demands have pushed existing water systems to their limits. While some view the proposed pipeline as a potential lifeline for stabilizing regional water supplies, environmental concerns remain central to the debate, echoing the very reasons the original project was shelved. A Long History of Controversy The idea of redirecting northern rivers is not new. It was first proposed in the 19th century by Ukrainian-born engineer Yakov Demchenko, who envisioned transferring water from the Ob and Irtysh rivers to replenish the shrinking Aral Sea. In the Soviet period, the concept gained political traction. By the late 1960s, it had entered official planning discussions, prompting detailed studies by the Academy of Sciences, the State Planning Committee, and the Ministry of Water Resources. In 1970, the project was formally designated a state priority, with plans for transferring up to 25 cubic kilometers of water annually. Extensive technical documentation was produced, and construction began on supporting infrastructure, including the Irtysh-Karaganda canal. Designs for the main channel envisioned a span of more than 2,500 kilometers and a capacity exceeding 1,000 cubic meters per second. However, by 1986, the project was halted due to mounting economic pressures, scientific opposition, and growing awareness of potential environmental risks. Experts warned of large-scale flooding, disruptions to groundwater, damage to fish stocks, displacement of Indigenous communities, and unpredictable impacts on permafrost and regional climate systems. Renewed Debate in a Region Under Stress Though shelved in the late Soviet era, the project has resurfaced multiple times since the collapse of the USSR. Former Moscow mayor Yuri Luzhkov advocated for its revival in 2002, and Russian and Kazakh presidents discussed it publicly in 2010. Yet concerns about environmental and geopolitical ramifications have consistently stalled progress. Meanwhile, the water crisis in Central Asia has only deepened. Glaciers in the Tien Shan and Pamir mountains which feed the Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers have shrunk by more than 25% in recent decades. The region’s population has grown to approximately 80 million, nearly 50% higher...

Methane Emissions

Turkmenistan Identified as World’s Largest Source of Methane Super-Emitters

Turkmenistan has emerged as the top global source of major methane emissions in the oil and gas sector, according to new data published by the U.S.-based Stop Methane project. The findings, widely reported by Central Asian media, are based on satellite observations collected between January 1 and November 12 of this year. Researchers at the University of California, Los Angeles, which leads the project, compiled the ranking using satellite data to identify sites with the highest methane emissions over specific time intervals. The list includes locations where emissions ranged from 3.7 to 10 tons per hour, levels deemed significant contributors to atmospheric pollution. Industrial facilities in Turkmenistan, particularly near Esenguly and Turkmenabat in the Balkan province, accounted for the majority of high-emission events. Out of the 25 entries in the ranking, 17 are located in Turkmenistan, far more than any other country. The remaining positions are held by a handful of other states, including Venezuela, Iran, Pakistan, and the United States. Decades-old Soviet-era infrastructure is widely cited by independent energy analysts as one of the main reasons Turkmenistan dominates global methane-leak rankings. Much of the country’s gas production network relies on older pipelines, compressors, and separation units that were never modernized to international leak-prevention standards. Because methane is colorless and odorless at industrial concentrations, these failures can persist unnoticed for long periods without satellite monitoring. Experts note that relatively inexpensive upgrades - such as replacing valves, improving maintenance, and installing continuous monitoring - could sharply reduce emissions if implemented. Stop Methane analysts based their assessment on over 3,000 methane plumes detected at approximately 2,000 oil and gas sites worldwide. The data was collected using the U.S.-operated Tanager-1 satellite, which monitors key oil and gas extraction zones. The satellite’s capabilities allow for the detection of large leaks that are often invisible from the ground. The surge in methane detection over the past two years reflects not a sudden rise in leaks but a leap in the resolution of satellite instruments now able to spot plumes previously undetectable. Earlier monitoring systems could identify only massive blowouts, whereas newer platforms - including Tanager-1 and NASA’s EMIT - can map medium-sized leaks in near-real time. This technological shift has revealed a methane footprint far larger than governments and companies had reported, making emissions visible to the international community and accelerating calls for transparency and mitigation. The organization highlighted the serious environmental impact of methane, emphasizing its role in both air pollution and climate change. Beyond the climate implications, methane leaks represent a direct economic loss for Turkmenistan. The International Energy Agency estimates that most methane emissions in the oil and gas sector can be avoided at little or no net cost because the captured gas can be sold. For a country whose budget relies heavily on gas exports, the volume of methane escaping from super-emitter sites translates into millions of dollars of lost revenue annually. Addressing these leaks, therefore, offers both environmental and fiscal benefits. For context, a site emitting five tons of methane...

COP30

From Glaciers to Green Goals: Central Asia at COP30

The UN Climate Change Conference (COP30) in Belém, Brazil, concluded with a hard-fought global deal that boosts climate finance for developing countries but avoids any promise to phase out fossil fuels. Amid this uneasy compromise, the Central Asian nations worked to get their priorities heard. Their delegations pressed for more climate funding, recognition of their unique vulnerabilities, and support for regional initiatives, with mixed results. A United Regional Voice on Climate Home to over 80 million people, Central Asia entered COP30 with a goal outlined as “five countries, one voice,” after a regional dialogue in Dushanbe ahead of the summit forged a common stance on shared threats such as melting glaciers and water stress. The region has already warmed about 2.2 °C – faster than the global average – and glaciers are shrinking by roughly 0.5% each year, Uzbekistan’s environment minister Aziz Abdukhakimov warned in Belém. He noted worsening land degradation and vanishing water resources, underscoring Central Asia’s acute climate vulnerability. In response, Uzbekistan unveiled a new pledge to cut its greenhouse gas emissions by 50% by 2035 (from 2010 levels) by expanding renewable energy and forests. Such actions align with COP30’s call for developed nations to triple adaptation finance by 2035 to help vulnerable countries cope. “COP30 showed that climate cooperation is alive and kicking, keeping humanity in the fight for a livable planet,” UN climate chief Simon Stiell said in his closing speech, praising delegates for persisting despite global divisions. National Commitments and Initiatives Kazakhstan, Central Asia’s largest economy and emitter, took on a visible role at COP30. Its delegation was led by Minister of Ecology and Natural Resources Yerlan Nyssanbayev, who addressed the summit’s opening session. Nyssanbayev reaffirmed Kazakhstan’s commitment to the Paris Agreement goals, noting the country has adopted a “Revised Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) and a National Adaptation Plan” with more ambitious targets to cut emissions and bolster resilience. “It is crucial for us to consistently work toward achieving our climate goals,” he stated. Nyssanbayev emphasized the importance of climate finance for developing countries, highlighting the new “Baku–Belém Roadmap” to mobilize $1.3 trillion annually by 2035 and urging support for a significantly increased funding mechanism. Kazakhstan also became one of only seven nations – and the sole Central Asian country – to sign a joint declaration pledging “near zero” methane emissions from its fossil fuel sector. In a sign of ongoing regional leadership, Nyssanbayev invited all delegates to attend a Central Asia Regional Environmental Summit that Kazakhstan will host in 2026, aiming to sustain climate cooperation beyond COP30. Kyrgyzstan, given its geography, used the summit to champion the mountain agenda and the plight of high-altitude communities on the frontlines of climate change. The Kyrgyz Republic chairs the UNFCCC’s Mountain Group and sent a delegation led by Deputy Chairman of the Cabinet of Ministers, Edil Baisalov, and Dinara Kemelova, the President’s Special Representative for the Mountain Agenda. In the first week of COP30, Kemelova delivered keynote remarks at multiple high-level sessions, calling for strengthened international support and...

Water Crisis

Two Major Reservoirs in Turkmenistan Dry Up Amid Intensifying Drought

Turkmenistan’s Balkan region is facing a deepening drought, with two strategically important reservoirs, Mammetköl and Delili, completely drying up by mid-2025. Both reservoirs, fed by the Etrek (Atrek) River, have vanished from satellite imagery, underscoring the severity of the region’s water crisis. According to meteorological reports, the reservoirs were not replenished during the winter months and rapidly lost their remaining water due to evaporation and filtration. The winter of 2024-2025 was exceptionally dry, and the spring brought no relief. With virtually no inflow from the now-dry Etrek River, the reservoirs were left to evaporate. Mammetköl, built in 1964, had a total volume of 20.5 million cubic meters and a usable capacity of 17.9 million cubic meters. Delili, commissioned in 1970, had a capacity of 5.32 million cubic meters. Both were vital to irrigating farmland and sustaining livestock pastures in the Balkan region. This is not the first time Mammetköl has dried up. During the prolonged drought of 2020-2023, the reservoir emptied in October 2021 and remained largely dry for nearly two years, with only brief periods of partial refilling. A rare flood event in August 2023, triggered by heavy rains in the Atrek’s upper reaches, temporarily restored water levels, but the relief was short-lived. Data from the Etrek weather station show that from January to November 2025, normal precipitation levels were recorded only in February and March. The situation rapidly deteriorated not just in the Etrek basin but across other parts of Turkmenistan as well. Reservoirs and rivers disconnected from the Amu Darya began to show signs of critical depletion in early 2025. The Murghab and Tedzhen rivers also reached dangerously low levels. By mid-year, many artificial reservoirs fed by the Atrek had dried out entirely. In autumn, the drought expanded into the Amu Darya basin, Turkmenistan’s largest and most vital waterway, further exacerbating the national water crisis.

Rivers

Central Asia Faces Growing Water Risks as Qosh Tepa Canal Nears Completion

Kazakh media, Inbusiness.kz, reports that discussions within the Russian Academy of Sciences have revived a decadesold idea to redirect Siberian rivers toward Central Asia. Researchers have proposed that Russia’s Ministry of Science and Higher Education include a study of the project in its state research plan, arguing that the region is entering a critical phase of water scarcity. This renewed debate comes as Afghanistan advances construction of the Qosh Tepa Canal, a massive irrigation project in the country’s north. The first 108 kilometer section began operating in 2023, and work on the second phase is nearing completion. Once fully operational, the 285 kilometer canal is expected to divert more than 15% of the Amu Darya river’s flow to irrigate around 550,000 hectares of farmland in Afghanistan’s drought-prone regions. Construction began in March 2022 and its impact is already being felt across Central Asia. Experts warn the canal could reduce Uzbekistan’s water supply by around 15% and Turkmenistan’s by up to 80%, which may lead to lower crop yields, job losses, rising poverty and even potential migration or tensions. Scholars in Kazakhstan note rising alarm. Ravshan Nazarov, an associate professor based in Tashkent, said that failure to address water shortages could trigger mass population movements. He argued that redirecting Siberian rivers, though technically complex and costly, may become unavoidable. He warned that if Russia does not share its water resources, it might eventually face “an influx of 100 million refugees.” Data from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) show that Turkmenistan is the region’s largest water consumer, using 53 cubic kilometres annually despite a population of just about 7 million. Experts attribute this to ageing infrastructure, high evaporation losses and a lack of concrete-lined canals. Meanwhile, Kyrgyzstan has faced water shortages since 2020.

Climate Change

Central Asia Faces Billions in Climate Adaptation Costs, UNEP Warns

Central Asia ranks among the most climate-vulnerable regions in the world and will require tens of billions of dollars to adapt to the accelerating effects of global warming, according to a new report by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). The report identifies Central Asia as one of the fastest-warming areas globally. However, current adaptation funding remains drastically insufficient to meet the growing threat. A Region Under Threat Developing countries worldwide, including those in Central Asia, will need up to $310 billion annually by 2035 to adapt to climate change. UNEP highlights the region’s specific challenges: rapidly melting glaciers, widespread soil degradation, worsening water scarcity, and increasing aridity, all of which endanger food security and energy sustainability. “If we don't start investing in adaptation now, we will face increasing costs every year,” said UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen. Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan are particularly exposed, with more than 70% of their populations employed in agriculture, which depends heavily on mountain rivers fed by glacial runoff. According to UNEP, glacier volumes in the region have shrunk by over 30% in the past decade. The changing flow of the Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers threatens not only agriculture but also the hydropower sectors in both countries. Diminished access to water could lead to socio-economic instability in vulnerable communities. Funding Gap Widens UNEP estimates that developing countries in Europe and Central Asia need roughly $51 billion annually for adaptation. Yet, only a fraction of that figure is currently being met. Tajikistan, for example, has outlined total climate financing needs of $8 billion by 2030 and $17 billion by 2050. In Uzbekistan, the cost of modernizing irrigation and water management systems alone is expected to approach $10 billion by 2030. UNEP has urged governments in the region to accelerate the updating of national adaptation plans, many of which have not been revised in over a decade, and to enhance cooperation in the Amu Darya and Syr Darya basins. Priority areas include investment in irrigation infrastructure, early warning systems, and flood control. From Glaciers to Farms In response to UNEP’s findings, international organizations have begun to fund targeted adaptation initiatives. The Green Climate Fund, for instance, has approved $250 million for the From Glaciers to Farms program, spearheaded by the Asian Development Bank. The project aims to strengthen agricultural and water resilience in glacier-dependent countries in Central Asia, the South Caucasus, and parts of South Asia. It covers four major river basins: the Naryn and Panj in Central Asia, the Kura in the South Caucasus, and the Swat in Pakistan, benefiting approximately 13 million people. Funding will support the development of irrigation networks, reservoir construction, glacier monitoring, and early warning systems. The program also places a strong emphasis on empowering women entrepreneurs in agriculture and improving the financial sustainability of rural communities.