Earlier this year, Azerbaijan lashed out at Russia over the Dec. 25, 2024 crash of an Azerbaijan Airlines plane that the government said was hit by accidental Russian ground fire before crashing in Kazakhstan. Now, Moscow is coming under fresh scrutiny over the crash, which killed 38 of the 67 people on board, as a broader dispute between Russia and Azerbaijan sharply escalates.
On Wednesday, an Azerbaijani news outlet, Minval Politika, published an anonymous letter and other materials purportedly containing a Russian air defense captain’s assertion that the Russian Defense Ministry gave the order to shoot down the plane as it tried to land in Grozny, Chechnya. The outlet says it can’t confirm the authenticity of the letter, and Russia has previously said an official investigation should run its course. But the dramatic allegation and the timing of the apparent leak to Minval Politika are likely to heighten acrimony at a particularly sensitive moment.
Minval Politika said it felt compelled to publish the information for “society,” and that the “data obtained can serve as useful information for the competent authorities of the Republic of Azerbaijan investigating the circumstances of the tragedy.”
The wider confrontation stems partly from the arrests of dozens of people of Azerbaijani origin by Russian security officials in the Russian city of Yekaterinburg last week. Two ethnic Azerbaijani brothers died in those raids, which Russian officials said were part of an old murder probe. Azerbaijan then detained staff at the Baku office of Russian state media group Sputnik, alleging fraud and other crimes. Russia, in turn, accused Azerbaijan of “unfriendly” conduct.
The rift lays open the delicacy of relations between regional power Russia and most former Soviet republics that, since the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, have developed trade, diplomatic, and other ties with Moscow while trying to strengthen their own sovereignty and national identity, and engage with other international partners. Central Asian countries – Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan – have generally maintained this balance and looked for diplomatic solutions to concerns such as discrimination against Central Asian migrants in Russia.
At the other end of the spectrum, Ukraine has been in an all-out war with a Russian invading force for more than three years.
Azerbaijan, in the South Caucasus region, has long maintained an alliance with Russia, which has gradually been losing influence in the area as it focuses on the Ukraine war and as Türkiye and other players gain more clout. Azerbaijan’s relationship with Russia soured markedly because of the Azerbaijan Airlines plane crash and what Azerbaijani authorities and commentators saw as an evasive Russian response to the disaster.
The incident put Kazakhstan in a difficult position because the crash happened on its territory, just outside the Caspian Sea city of Aktau, and Kazakh authorities were therefore the leaders of an investigation that required the full cooperation of Russia to understand what really happened. Russian President Vladimir Putin had apologized to his Azerbaijani counterpart, Ilham Aliyev, but did not acknowledge that the aircraft had been accidentally hit by Russian fire before diverting to Aktau. Russia has said the area was under attack by Ukrainian drones at the time.
Numerous aviation and security specialists have said damage to the plane’s fuselage was consistent with shrapnel marks. But a preliminary report released by Kazakhstan in February did not clear up whether Russia had fired on the plane, saying only that objects that were not part of the plane had struck it and caused significant damage.
As The Times of Central Asia reported at the time: “While a full report is in the works, that could take many more months, during which time tensions between Azerbaijan and Russia are likely to stew or escalate unless Azerbaijan gets the full apology and accountability that it demands.”
While ties with Russia deteriorate, Azerbaijan is pursuing brisk diplomacy with other countries in the broader region. On Tuesday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy telephoned Aliyev. On Wednesday, Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev arrived in Azerbaijan for a visit.
