Page 199 – The Times Of Central Asia

16 Jul 2025

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Central Asia Faces Growing Energy Deficit

September 30, 2025
By Vagit Ismailov

Central Asia is heading toward a serious energy crunch. According to the Logistan.info portal, regional demand for imported natural gas is expected to reach 25 billion cubic meters annually by 2030. This looming shortfall is driven by rapid population growth, around one million people per year, industrial expansion, declining domestic production, and the deteriorating state of aging infrastructure. Recent accidents in Bishkek, Tashkent, Dushanbe, and Ekibastuz illustrate the scale and urgency of the problem.

Kazakhstan: Rising Output, Falling Exports

Kazakhstan produced 59.2 billion cubic meters of gas in 2024, representing a 6.4% increase from the previous year. However, nearly half of this was reinjected into oil reservoirs to sustain production. Only 29 billion cubic meters were available for domestic consumption. Soaring internal demand has already led to a sharp decline in exports to China, which fell 40% to 8.7 billion cubic meters.

Uzbekistan: From Exporter to Importer

Uzbekistan’s situation is even more precarious. In 2024, the country produced 44.6 billion cubic meters of gas and 713,400 tons of oil, figures that are in decline, dropping 4.5% and 8.5% respectively. To cover the shortfall, Tashkent has turned to Russia and Turkmenistan, purchasing $1.7 billion worth of gas. Uzbekneftegaz expects to produce just 26.5 billion cubic meters of commercial gas in 2025, far short of projected domestic needs.

Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan

Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan produce virtually no hydrocarbons and rely entirely on imports of these resources. Meanwhile, demand continues to grow in tandem with their populations, and domestic energy generation falls short of even basic consumption needs.

Turkmenistan remains the region’s top gas exporter, sending 41.3 billion cubic meters abroad in 2024. However, Ashgabat’s ability to increase exports is limited by its own growing domestic consumption, binding long-term contracts with China, and a lack of large-scale infrastructure development.

Investment, Delays, and Structural Challenges

While Central Asian governments have announced plans for new hydroelectric plants, combined heat and power stations, and nuclear power facilities, tangible progress remains slow. Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan have yet to break ground on any of their proposed nuclear power projects. Key obstacles include a shortage of qualified personnel, water scarcity, environmental concerns, and, above all, insufficient funding. Without substantial foreign investment, modernization efforts are likely to stall.

To ease financial pressures, countries in the region have begun raising gas and electricity tariffs. These price hikes aim to offset upgrade costs but have provoked public backlash and fueled inflation. In Uzbekistan, for instance, inflation accelerated to 15% in May 2025, with energy prices cited as the primary driver.

The Russian Option

Forecasts for regional gas imports remain imprecise, but analysts estimate the need could rise to 20-25 billion cubic meters annually by 2030. Russia appears poised to become the main supplier, though details of supply agreements, including pricing, volumes, and terms, have not been disclosed. Central Asian governments are attempting to keep cooperation with Moscow strictly within the economic sphere, wary of entangling political dependencies.

As a result, the region faces a dual challenge: securing energy stability through technological upgrades and infrastructure investment, while carefully navigating the geopolitical implications of increasing reliance on Russian gas.

16 Jul 2025

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Trump’s 100% Tariffs May Target Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan

July 29, 2025
By Aliya Haidar

U.S. President Donald Trump has signaled a new wave of sanctions against Russia, including the potential imposition of 100% tariffs on its trading partners, which could affect Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and other former Soviet states.

Who Could Be Affected?

On July 15, President Trump announced an escalation in U.S. arms deliveries to Ukraine and warned of intensified sanctions against Russia. If no progress is made in resolving the conflict within 50 days, the U.S. will implement additional measures, including secondary tariffs of up to 100% on countries trading with Russia.

Experts warn that Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Azerbaijan may be particularly vulnerable. Although not among Russia’s largest trading partners, these countries maintain extensive commercial ties with Moscow. According to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), China, India, and Turkey accounted for 74 percent of Russia’s fossil fuel revenue in 2024. Oil exports totaled €104 billion, petroleum products €75 billion, gas €40 billion, and coal €23 billion.

Despite multiple sanctions packages, the European Union continues to import Russian energy. In 2024, the EU spent €21.9 billion on Russian oil and gas, just 1% less than in 2023. Over the same period, EU financial assistance to Ukraine amounted to €18.7 billion, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy.

Yet Trump may spare Russia’s largest trading partners. In recent months, he has taken steps to impose severe tariffs on the European Union and China, only to reverse course under pressure from business groups and concerns about global trade disruptions.

Nevertheless, Kazakhstan received formal notification from the U.S. on July 7 that a 25% tariff on its goods will take effect from August 1, 2025. This raises the possibility that smaller economies in Russia’s orbit may become targets of U.S. economic retaliation.

Already in the Crosshairs

Kazakh analyst Olzhas Baidildinov noted that trade between Kazakhstan and Russia totaled $27.8 billion in 2024, with $18.2 billion in exports from Russia and $9.5 billion from Kazakhstan. “Such figures certainly cannot escape the attention of OFAC,” Baidildinov wrote, referring to the U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control.

“European sanctions apply only within Europe. However, Kazakhstan continues to import Russian oil, gas, and petroleum products. Secondary sanctions, as I’ve previously warned, are merely a matter of minor adjustments to existing measures,” he added.

Trump’s administration may also be overlooking Kazakhstan’s unique geographic and economic ties to Russia. The two countries share the world’s longest continuous land border, over 7,500 kilometers, and are closely connected through pipelines, energy infrastructure, and raw materials trade.

Azerbaijan and Kyrgyzstan Also Vulnerable

Azerbaijan’s trade with Russia reached approximately $4.8 billion in 2024, an increase of 10.1 percent. Russia ranks as Azerbaijan’s third-largest trading partner, after Italy and Turkey. Exports to Russia totaled $1.178 billion, accounting for 4.4 percent of Azerbaijan’s total exports. Notably, Russia is the largest buyer of Azerbaijan’s non-oil products, with a 34.6 percent share. Imports from Russia include foodstuffs, machinery, and metals, while Azerbaijan supplies gas, textiles, and agricultural goods.

Kyrgyzstan is also at risk. About 32 percent of its foreign trade is with fellow Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) members, primarily Russia (67.3 percent) and Kazakhstan (30.5 percent). Trade between Kyrgyzstan and Russia grew by more than 11 percent in 2024 and by over 17 percent in the first half of 2025.

SCO Responds to the Signal

Analysts interpret Trump’s tariff threats as a warning to members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), which includes Russia, Kazakhstan, China, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Pakistan, India, Iran, and Belarus. All maintain substantial economic links with Moscow.

Following Trump’s remarks, foreign ministers from SCO member states convened in Tianjin, China. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian criticized the proposed sanctions, stating, “China firmly opposes any illegal unilateral sanctions,” and added that coercive measures would not help resolve the crisis.

16 Jul 2025

Central Asia, Business & Economy, Kazakhstan, Kazakhstan Business & Economy

South Korean Firm to Invest Up to $3.1 Billion in Green Hydrogen Project in Kazakhstan

July 16, 2025
By Sergey Kwan

South Korea’s YPP Corporation is set to invest up to $3.1 billion in a large-scale green hydrogen and ammonia production facility in Kazakhstan, following the signing of a framework agreement with the national investment promotion agency, Kazakh Invest.

The agreement was signed on July 15 by Azamat Kozhanov, Deputy Chairman of Kazakh Invest, and John M. Bek, Chairman of the Board at YPP Corporation (Your Permanent Partner), an engineering and energy firm based in South Korea.

According to Kazakh Invest, the “Green Energy Complex” aims to establish a full-cycle production chain for green hydrogen and ammonia powered by renewable energy. The project includes the construction of solar and wind power plants with a combined capacity of up to 2 gigawatts, along with electrolysis systems and ammonia synthesis units. Annual output is projected at up to 75,000 tons of green hydrogen and 310,000 tons of green ammonia.

While most of the output will be exported, a portion will be used domestically. The facility will also include supporting infrastructure such as energy storage systems, logistics and water supply networks, and potential integration into Kazakhstan’s heat and power systems, particularly in the Almaty region.

“This project fully aligns with Kazakhstan’s long-term energy strategy and our ambition to become a key player in green hydrogen,” said Kozhanov. “Kazakhstan’s renewable energy potential is estimated at 1,820 billion kWh from wind and 2.5 billion kWh from solar annually. Global interest in developing green energy here is growing steadily.”

YPP founder John M. Bek cited Kazakhstan’s favorable geography and investment climate. “We see Kazakhstan as a strategic partner and are committed to implementing a project that brings together Korea’s advanced technology and global best practices in sustainable energy,” he said.

The agreement paves the way for the next phase of development, including a detailed investment model, regulatory approvals, and potential partnerships with major offtakers such as Samsung C&T.

16 Jul 2025

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Central Asian Nations Rank Low in Global Mental Health Index

July 16, 2025
By Sadokat Jalolova

Mental health remains a significant challenge across Central Asia, with populations reporting high levels of distress and rising rates of self-harm. According to the Mental State of the World survey, Uzbekistan ranked 74th out of 82 countries on the Mental Health and Wellbeing Index, scoring 54.5 points. Kazakhstan followed at 76th (52.3), Kyrgyzstan at 79th (51.2), and Tajikistan at 80th (51.2). The global average stands at 63 points, suggesting that, on average, people around the world feel mentally stable and active for about 21 days each month.

Experts point to a range of factors driving poor mental health in the region, including anxiety, depression, fatigue, loneliness, and unresolved personal issues. A joint survey by the UN Population Fund (UNFPA) and YouGov, which included more than 14,000 respondents across 14 countries, found that 32 percent had experienced unplanned pregnancies and 23 percent were unable to start families when they wished. Financial hardship was the most frequently cited barrier to wellbeing (39 percent), followed by job insecurity (21 percent), inadequate housing (19 percent), and fear of war or pandemics (19 percent).

A study published in BMC Public Health reported age-standardized suicide rates per 100,000 people in 2019 as follows: Kazakhstan at 18.05; Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan both at 8.28; Turkmenistan at 6.07; and Tajikistan at 5.32. By comparison, the global suicide rate that year was approximately 9 per 100,000.

Despite its relative economic strength, Kazakhstan ranked 17th globally for suicide rate in 2020, with 18 deaths per 100,000 people, according to World Health Organization (WHO) data. UNICEF has also recorded a disturbing trend among the country’s youth: between January and August 2024, over 2,300 self-harm incidents were reported, including 128 involving children aged 5 to 18. Among adolescents aged 15 to 19, self-harm has become the leading cause of death.

Uzbekistan, which received the highest score in the region, is expanding access to counseling services and training school psychologists. Meanwhile, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are piloting community-based mental health centers. However, specialists warn that without broader social reforms, such as stable employment, affordable housing, and gender equality, both reproductive and mental health will continue to fall short of international standards.

“True progress means giving people freedom to choose and live without fear,” the UNFPA report concludes. For Central Asia, this requires greater investment in rights, services, and long-term wellbeing.

16 Jul 2025

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Turkmenistan Tightens Internet Blocks to Promote State-Controlled VPNs

July 18, 2025
By Sadokat Jalolova

Internet restrictions in Turkmenistan have intensified sharply in recent weeks, according to sources who spoke with turkmen.news. Authorities have reportedly expanded the national IP blacklist by adding numerous /16 subnets, each covering over 65,000 IP addresses. While such sweeping blocks might appear politically motivated, insiders claim the real motive is commercial: corrupt officials are using the restrictions to market and sell VPN services and “whitelist” access they control themselves.

In July 2024, Turkmen authorities briefly restored access to around 3 billion previously blocked IP addresses, raising hopes of a more open digital environment and a boost to the stagnant online economy. However, that reprieve proved temporary. The blocks soon returned, initially targeting smaller /24 subnets (255 IP addresses each). This summer, the government’s cybersecurity department escalated efforts by blocking entire /16 subnets, cutting off hundreds of thousands of websites in a matter of weeks.

Restrictions Without Justification

Turkmenistan already ranks among the most digitally isolated nations. Independent media, global social networks, and any platforms perceived to host criticism of the government have long been inaccessible. However, the latest wave of blocks is not driven by political considerations, as most politically sensitive platforms were already restricted.

Instead, the scale and targets of the new blocks suggest other motivations. According to turkmen.news, even benign and essential online services, such as update servers for antivirus software like Bitdefender and some Google utilities, have been caught in the dragnet. Experts warn that this poses a growing cybersecurity risk in a country with limited digital literacy and inadequate access to software updates.

Selling Access in a Closed System

Sources allege that Turkmen officials are using the crackdown to corner the market for virtual private networks. VPN keys now cost around 1,000 manats (roughly $50) per month, while access to a whitelist, ensuring uninterrupted connectivity, can run up to $2,000 monthly. The officials reportedly behind the scheme are said to be deliberately blocking alternatives to force users into purchasing their products.

Last year, turkmen.news identified several figures allegedly involved in this scheme: Maksat Geldyev, Allanazar Kulnazarov, and Didar Seyidov. While these individuals reportedly profit from the artificial scarcity they create, the broader economy suffers. Analysts estimate that Turkmenistan loses millions of dollars daily due to the constraints on digital development, which is a key factor in modern GDP growth.

Official Denials Amid International Scrutiny

Despite mounting evidence, the Turkmen government continues to deny the severity of the situation. The Foreign Ministry recently issued a statement condemning Ukrainian television channel FreeDom for what it described as “biased and false” coverage of the country’s internet restrictions.

Nonetheless, experts warn that unless the government reverses course, Turkmenistan’s digital isolation will continue to hinder economic development, deepen cybersecurity vulnerabilities, and further disconnect its population from the global information space.

16 Jul 2025

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Kazakhstan’s Economy Posts Fastest Growth in 14 Years

July 16, 2025
By Dmitry Pokidaev

Kazakhstan’s economy expanded by 6.2% in the first half of 2025, marking the country’s fastest growth rate since 2011. The data was announced by Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Economy Serik Zhumangarin during a government meeting.

Zhumangarin noted that a similar level of growth was last recorded in the first half of 2011, when GDP increased by 7.1%, eventually reaching 7.5% for the full year. Since then, annual growth rates have rarely surpassed 6%. By comparison, the economy grew 4.8% in 2024.

“The current figure is 0.2 percentage points higher than the growth recorded in the first five months of this year and is the highest in the last 14 years. For context, growth during the same period in 2024 was just 3.2%,” Zhumangarin said. He cited the real sector (+8%) and the services sector (+5.2%) as the primary drivers.

Key Growth Sectors

Transport (+22.7%) and construction (+18.4%) led the surge, driven in part by a 35.2% increase in grain and flour exports, which totaled 11.8 million tons. The mining industry also posted steady gains, with oil production rising 11.6% and coal production up 11.7%, contributing to overall mining growth of 8.4%.

Manufacturing expanded by 5.5%, buoyed by strong performances in machinery (+11.1%), food production (+10%), oil refining (+9.6%), metal products (+14.6%), construction materials (+8.6%), and chemicals (+7%). Agricultural output rose by 3.7%.

Trade and Investment Outlook

From January to May 2025, Kazakhstan’s foreign trade turnover reached $53.5 billion. Exports stood at $29.8 billion, including $10.2 billion in high value-added products. Imports rose by 2.2% to $23.8 billion, resulting in a positive trade balance of $6 billion.

Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov reaffirmed the government’s ambition to double Kazakhstan’s GDP by 2029, a goal originally set in 2023.

“Last year, our GDP was $286 billion. This year, we expect to surpass the $300 billion mark. If current growth rates hold, we are capable of reaching $450 billion by 2029,” Bektenov stated at a press briefing.

He emphasized that the government is investing in industrial development, economic diversification, and high value-added production to ensure that the majority of national revenue and profits remain within Kazakhstan.

Diverging Forecasts

Earlier this year, the Eurasian Development Bank forecast Kazakhstan’s GDP growth at 5.5% for 2025, with similar rates expected for 2026 and 2027. However, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) recently downgraded its 2025 forecast from 5.2% to 4.9%, citing potential risks to oil output.