Despite a recent ceasefire agreement between India and Pakistan, renewed hostilities remain a looming threat. The latest clashes between the two nuclear-armed neighbors have direct and potentially lasting repercussions for Central Asia’s political stability and economic development.

Ceasefire Amid Escalation

Armed conflict erupted on May 7, when New Delhi launched “Operation Sindoor,” targeting what it described as terrorist infrastructure within Pakistan. The move followed a deadly terrorist attack on April 22 in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, which killed 26 people. India accused Pakistan of complicity, a charge Islamabad rejected, condemning the airstrikes as an “act of war.” Full-scale hostilities ensued for several days, raising alarms across the broader region.

By May 11, a ceasefire was brokered, though both sides warned that fighting could resume if provoked. Given the eight-decade-long volatility along their shared border, the risk of future escalations remains significant.

Whilst Pakistan credited the U.S. for facilitating the ceasefire, specifically highlighting Senator Rubio and what it described as direct intervention by President Trump, India maintained that the agreement was a result of direct communication between the Directors General of Military Operations (DGMOs). In a formal televised address, Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri emphasized that the ceasefire was a “bilateral” decision reached via military hotlines, omitting any mention of Trump or Rubio. “Both sides agreed to cease all firing and military actions on land,” Misri stated firmly, reiterating India’s stance that no third party played a role in its interactions with Pakistan.

Disruption to Tourism Flows

One immediate economic impact of the conflict has been felt in Central Asia’s tourism sector. In recent years, Kazakhstan, especially Almaty, has become an increasingly popular destination for Indian travelers, aided by a visa-free regime that permits 14-day stays. The country also hosts large numbers of Indian and Pakistani students, along with medical tourists and business travelers.

Many Indian visitors rely on budget carriers such as IndiGo, which previously operated routes from Delhi to Almaty and Tashkent using airspace over Pakistan. The closure of this airspace led to increased costs and logistical complications. IndiGo suspended flights to both cities on April 27 and 28, respectively. Should hostilities resume, these suspensions could be extended, potentially setting back Central Asia’s still-fragile tourism recovery.

Infrastructure and Trade at Risk

The geopolitical instability also jeopardizes key infrastructure projects and trade routes. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have both enhanced connectivity with Pakistan through distinct strategies, with Kazakhstan integrating into multilateral frameworks like the Middle Corridor and QTTA, and Uzbekistan focusing on tactical bilateral projects such as the Termez–Karachi transport corridor and Trans-Afghan Railway. Both countries aim to reduce their reliance on Russian-controlled routes while leveraging Pakistan’s ports to boost regional trade.

Political analyst Zhanat Momynkulov warns that the conflict could disrupt supply chains and raise the cost of goods across South and Central Asia. The rerouting of flights due to Pakistani airspace closures is already affecting logistics and regional connectivity.

Kazakhstan, a central player in both the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), is particularly vulnerable. Projects such as the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a BRI flagship, could be delayed or derailed. Similarly, the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline faces heightened uncertainty.

Construction on the TAPI pipeline’s Serkhetabad-Herat segment began in September 2024, backed by Turkmen and Afghan officials. The 1,814-kilometer pipeline, fed by Turkmenistan’s massive Galkynysh field, is intended to diversify Turkmenistan’s gas exports and provide a stable energy source to Afghanistan. Escalating regional tensions have now cast doubt over its timely completion.

Diplomatic Tightrope for Central Asia

The conflict also places Central Asian governments in a delicate diplomatic position. Much like in the context of the war in Ukraine, regional leaders must navigate relationships with powerful and often opposing international actors.

China, a major player in Central Asia, maintains a strong military partnership with Pakistan and reportedly supplies it with advanced weaponry and satellite intelligence. According to Kazakh political analyst Adil Kaukenov, this support reflects Beijing’s broader strategic alignment with Islamabad.

At the same time, Pakistan enjoys broad backing in the Islamic world, including from Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Azerbaijan. Conversely, India draws strength from its substantial global diaspora and robust diplomatic ties with the UAE, as well as traditional partners in the U.S., UK, and Canada. Meanwhile, Russia being a longstanding ally of India adds further complexity to the geopolitical equation.

Central Asia’s close ties with all these powers mean that any escalation could force regional states into uncomfortable diplomatic balancing acts, with consequences for both domestic and foreign policy.